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PDiddyDD
PDiddyDD

Well after starting 11-1 from Tuesday to Thursday afternoon, then went 1-6-1 tonight... ouch.  12-7-1 overall as played Villanova -4 and pushed when the line dropped.  

Played these early games already:

Cincy ML -168 ML for 10* - Iowa has been terrible away from home and I just can't see them winning this game as Cincy has the much better athletes and team overall and Cumberland is by far the best player on the court. Bearcats win a 70-64 type game as Iowa also doesn't play a lot of defense as outside of Cook, they don't have much.  I took Cincy ML earlier as I think Cincy has about an 80% chance of winning and 60 to 65ish% chance of covering a small number of 3.5ish... I would at least buy to 3 if playing the spread as Bearcats also suck from the charity stripe.  However, this is a huge talent advantage overall for Bearcats IMHO.  Iowa is nothing special in general.

Ole Miss ML -117 for 10* - Rebels have great guards in Tyree (18.2 PPG), Davis (15.1 PPG), & Schuler and just okay in the post, but OU isn't anything special in the post either and Rebels should win a 72-66 type of game.  Oklahoma probably shouldn't be in the tourament and while James, Manek, & Doolittle are nice players, they still lost to West Virginia in their confernce tournament and were under .500 in league play.  Ole Miss was also excellent ATS this season and they could give Virginia a scare on Sunday.

Right2BearLocks
Right2BearLocks

Quote Originally Posted by Right2BearLocks:

Hit another 5u play yesterday, 5-1 on them now. 10-3 on 3u plays as well.  I love Wednesday's board!  CARD Houston / East Carolina o133 3u Baylor / Texas u134 3u UCF -2.5 3u Maryland -1.5 Marquette +5 Cincinatti -3.5 2u Louisville -5
Love the Bearcats -3.5... that line won't stay that low as SMU has basically quit

PDiddyDD
PDiddyDD

Played TCU +5 (-120) for 5* - Nickel wager on the Horned Frogs as Texas Tech is not playing well and think TCU has a great chance to win SU.  At the worse, they should keep withing 5 points IMHO.  TT is really struggling and they were lucky to beat a young Arkansas team... Horned Frogs should keep it damn close and not shocked if they win SU.  

Leans: Duke -14 - Notre Dame is gawd awful this year.  No luck for the Irish with their injuries, etc. Strong lean to Duke to win by 15+

Eddy_Winslow
Eddy_Winslow

Quote Originally Posted by Eddy_Winslow:

Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

It's a PK at my book...Seems like I can never get your line...and it costs me every time...
just my opinion but it will be pk or -1 by tomorrow everywhere.On a side note its always good to fund more than one account if you're able, it allows you to shop around for best line.

Iowa is likely without Tyler Cook their best player FYI as this line jumped at me to take Iowa... tough to like Penn State as well, but might be a good spot for them.

PDiddyDD
PDiddyDD

Mississippi State ML -155 vs Florida - Sure it's some vig, but Bulldogs can't afford another loss and they are a solid team in a funk.  Like them to win vs a very average Florida club which is 9-6 overall.  Miss State can't afford to lose this game. 

Arkansas +15.5 @ Tennesee - Not sure I'll play this game, but Vols are due for a letdown and Arkansas needs a big game in the worst way after back-to-back home losses.  Think this sets up well for a Vols non-cover.

South Florida +12.5 @ Cincy - USF is perfect ATS on the road and seem to be an under the radar decent club who oddsmakers still believe is last years awful club.  I am also not afraid of Cincy this year as not last years team.

Ole Miss -4 vs LSU - Best team in the country ATS @ 14-1 are the Rebels and although this could be a letdown spot, I'm not going to buck a cash cow laying a small number at home.

Virginia Tech +8.5 @ Virginia - Going against Virginia is stupid right now, but VT has a great team and think this will be close.  I would have line closer to 6ish in this big rivalry game.

Marquette ML -140 @ G'Town - Not excited about laying many points, but love Marquette againt G'Town and Howard could be player of the year at this moment and hopefully another monster game.

San Diego St -5 vs New Mexico - Lobos blew their wad against Nevada and since have been trash.  Aztecs are a different animal at home.  Think they win by double digits.

 

Would love others comments criticizing etc before I play a few of these in the morning... all leans for now!

PDiddyDD
PDiddyDD

Saints ML -460 for 10* - Bucs aren't winning this game... not sure about the point spread at 10, but Saints should roll and think 31-17 or 27-16 type game... hate large ML's, but Saints have a 95% chance to win IMO.  Bucs have worst roster in NFL IMO.

Ravens ML -340 for 10* - Bills aren't winning either with Peterman @ QB and a terrible roster.  Ravens are more like 85% chance to win, but I'll roll the dice and hope they don't screw me.

GLTA! Going to either be crying or smiling after the early games... GLTA!

PDiddyDD
PDiddyDD

Norhwestern ML -135 for 5* - Battle of who has better ACT/SAT scores, both teams are very well coached, but I will bite with home field in this game. Wildcats have won 11 in a row and very solid club under Fitzgerald and should beat Cutcliffe’s Blue Devils. 

PDiddyDD
PDiddyDD

Central Michigan ML -180 for 5* - KANSAS has lost 46 straight road games, can’t see them winning this week either. Massive line drop from 7 to 3ish... Chips or nothing for me

Gamecocks +10.5 for 5* - Cocks have weapons to hang within double digits at home ??. Big game, but love ?? the double digit dog ??.

Texas A&M +12.5 for 5* - Aggies and Jimbo Fisher’s chance to make a statement and tough to see Clemson by 13+ in such a hostile environment. Aggies are decent and 12th man will help a lot! 

Kansas St +10 (-120) for 5* - Grabbed earlier this week, but KSU will be amped for this game plus possible ?? in forecast. Will take Bill Snyder +10 at home vs anyone.

GLTA

 

PDiddyDD
PDiddyDD

Wouldn't bet your rent money, but Cubs -250 odds with Chatwood is insane, this guy has been a great fade as home SP since he was with Rockies and Fullmer has been okay.  I'll take a flyer with White Sox +220 for 5* to win 11*....

Just to clarify, you would have to lay at -245 odds with Cubs it's 26.95* odds to win 11* or 5* on Pale Hose for same amount...

I am going to take a swing at the dog as I can't see the line going much higher as Chatwood still blows to be laying monster chalk.  White Sox are terrible, but they will be pumped playing their crosstown rival IMHO.  

So my advice is tread light on Cubs as White Sox @ +220 at least has value.

White Sox 5 for 11*... GLTA

ExpertBuster
ExpertBuster
Lee Stirling sucks! He's the epitome of a loser! 
PDiddyDD
PDiddyDD

Sharks ?? have dominated IMO and took OT in-game at -115 for 575/500... lot of momentum for these guys and they don’t have the Vegas Flu ?? now. Go Sharks ??!

Followmetowin
Followmetowin

Rockets & Warriors in 5 or 6... Rockets vs Warriors will be epic and awesome! 

PDiddyDD
PDiddyDD
NBA Betting / NBA 1st Round / View Post

By the way,

I like Cavaliers ML +100, Raptors +3 (-115), & Thunder +7 (-115) tomorrow as dogs are going to start biting IMHO.  

Just took each now small as think each line goes against me.  

PDiddyDD
PDiddyDD
NBA Betting / NBA 1st Round / View Post

Lay points and win has been the theme as chalk/favorites are now 26-13-1 ATS by my count before closing line ATS as couple favorites were bet up to pushes like Pacers game #3 for sure ended -2 & Sixers game #4 ended -4 

Crazy how few teams have covered as dogs when catching points, meaning they lost but covered...
It's been T'Wolves game #1, Spurs game #5, Wizards pushed game #1, but closed +7.5, Celtics game #4, & Pacers games #2 & #5 so 5 games mattered with catching points. So maybe 5 games...

Chalk has gone 32-8 SU as only following dogs won SU:
Pelicans won twice as dogs vs Blazers
Heat once vs Sixers
Sixers once vs Heat
T'Wolves once vs Rockets
Jazz once vs Thunder
Pacers once Cavaliers
Spurs once vs Warriors.

So I am guessing this trend won't continue were chalk just dominates, but guess we'll see what happens.

 

Posted this thread on another site and figured I would share fwiw!  

I will also say I decided betting dogs blindly past couple nights and it's been really painful.  

Not sure it will change either as only 5 out of 40 times did catching points allow you to cover.  Has to change a little, but that is absurd as typically it's 77-80% of time you cover, but don't win in NBA playoffs based on a little research.

jerseysoulja
jerseysoulja

Who expects King James to lose 1st round? Of course odds are going to be ridiculous as this is King James.  

Said I would be all over Cavaliers at -2/2.5, but the -1 makes me realize Pacers might win.  Heck Pacers opened -1

PDiddyDD
PDiddyDD

Going with the following already as sure lines move, but won't have time to cap tomorrow...

Sixers -2 (-120) for 5* - Heat's home court is so weak as fans don't give a crap and arrive so late to game and Sixers have by far 2 best players on the court in Simmons & Embiid.  Think the Sixers win again tomorrow and then close out 4-1 in Philly.  Heat just lack any star power which hurts.

Blazers +7.5 for 5* - Thought line would be 5.5 to 6, surprised it's 7.5.  Pelicans look incredible, but they still aren't very deep and like the extra 4 points from game 3 as Blazers should at least compete and keep it close IMHO. Realize teams have been awful covering numbers when they don't win, but in this case, think Blazers lose a game by 7 or less.  Have Pelican series wager +200 to ease a loss ATS.

T'Wolves +5.5 for 5* - Rockets haven't looked good and yet have a 2-0 series lead, but I think the young Wolves have a great chance to win game #3.   Towns has yet to showup for this series, but think he is at least decent at home and the Wolves either win or compete to the buzzard.  T'Wolves should keep it competitive IMHO and maybe win... like the fact line went from 3.5 to 5.5.

Thunder +5 (-120) for 5* - Jazz have a deep team which helps and great big men.  However, 2 best players on the court play for Thunder and think they come fired up tomorrow night. 

Glad to know points haven't helped much ATS so far as think that changes going forward and we have some dog covers who lose close games.  

PDiddyDD
PDiddyDD

Cavaliers game 2 & Rockets game 1 dogs ?? covered... wow! Great insight! 

PDiddyDD
PDiddyDD

I have favorites 14-7-1 ATS overall as Raptors game 1 likely a push or cover for the favorite and Pacers tonight likely a cover or push.                              Huge run for chalk, will it turn around for dogs soon?

PDiddyDD
PDiddyDD

I know, dumb thread now after the fact, but sure someone had it after chalk had been crushing lately.  Predators loss was shocking to say the least.

PDiddyDD
PDiddyDD

Quote Originally Posted by PDiddyDD:

Posted: Apr. 21, 2018 - 1:35 AM ET "Quote" Damn, would have paid 11.2 to 1 closing line odds.  Wow! A couple shockers
Should say Avalanche, not Amp in thread.

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