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notes
notes
MLB Betting / MLB 2014 II / View Post
5/14

Baltimore ML (+112) $100.00 to win $112.00

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notes
MLB Betting / MLB 2014 II / View Post
5/8

Houston/Detroit U8.5 (+101) +$101.00
Toronto RL (+153) +$153.00

YTD 13-12 +$220.03 ROI 8.80%
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notes
MLB Betting / MLB 2014 II / View Post
5/8

Adding Toronto RL (+153) $100.00 to win $153.00
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MLB Betting / MLB 2014 II / View Post
5/8

Houston/Detroit U8.5 (+101) $100.00 to win $101.00


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MLB Betting / MLB 2014 II / View Post
5/7

Seattle/Oakland (Game 1) U7 (-113) -$100.00
Philadelphia/Toronto U8 (-109) -$100.00
Cincinnati/Boston U8.5 (-113) $88.50

I was most confident with the PHI/TOR game, and one half inning just sent the game all Over . That half inning alone was more than enough to hand me another loss, just painful. I am sure if I bet Over, it would not have happened . Anyway, moving on...

YTD 11-12 -$33.97 ROI -1.48%
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MLB Betting / MLB 2014 II / View Post
5/7

Adding

Philadelphia/Toronto U8 (-109) $100.00 to win $91.74
Cincinnati/Boston U8.5 (-113) $100.00 to win $88.50
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MLB Betting / MLB 2014 II / View Post
5/3

St. Louis RL (-110) -$150.00

YTD 10-10 +$77.53 ROI 3.88%

5/7

Seattle/Oakland (Game 1) U7 (-113) $100.00 to win $88.50




gb2k7
gb2k7
At -200, you need about 66.7% chance of winning to break even. As you can guess, it has been about 66-68% every year for -200 or higher favourites; otherwise, you could have profited by blindly betting on or against them. 2012 could be one outlier with 76%. Based on SDQL, -200 or higher favourites are winning at 68.8% rate between 2008 and 2013, inclusive.
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notes
MLB Betting / MLB 2014 II / View Post
5/3

St. Louis RL (-110) $150.00 to win $136.36
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MLB Betting / MLB 2014 II / View Post
5/2

St. Louis/Chicago Cubs U8.5 (-121) -$100.00

Too bad Wainwright did not do his job. After 24 IP with no run allowed, I guess he was 'due' although I do not usually give the 'due factor' too much credit when capping. There are many other games on the board today, but it is Friday, and I will just enjoy the start of the weekend, and come back tomorrow.

YTD 10-9 +$227.53 ROI 12.30%
totallypsycho
totallypsycho
This is similar to the argument I always make that

Profit(parlaying n games and then hedging the last leg) <= Profit (parlaying n-1 games and leaving out the last leg you would've included)

I gave the equal sign there for very rare circumstances, but in most cases, only the inequality holds.

Some people just do not get this idea, and get fooled by 'guaranteed money', not understanding that they would've been paid more by leaving out the last leg.

Betting on a series and then hedging the last game is the same as parlaying Game 6 & 7 for the team you are going for the series wager for and then hedging the last leg (= Game 7), so my argument applies in this case too. Just bet Game 6 straight up and then decide what you want to do with Game 7.
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MLB Betting / MLB 2014 II / View Post
5/2

St. Louis/Chicago Cubs U8.5 (-121) $100 to win $82.64


The Cardinals have not fared that well against lefties this season (W-L 2-4, O-U 1-4-1). Wainwright has not allowed a single run in the past 3 starts (24 IP). Is Wainwright due for a couple of runs? Maybe. Both teams are coming off a big win against their divisional foes, and I personally feel that this match up favours Under. At the moment of writing this, the line moved down to 8 with juice on Over. As for the side, I would have taken a stab at Cubs ML, but I will just stick to the total.
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MLB Betting / MLB 2014 II / View Post
5/1

Tampa Bay @ Boston (GM 1) U8.5 +$113.00
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (GM 1) U8.5 +$115.00

YTD 10-8 +$327.53 ROI 18.72%
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MLB Betting / MLB 2014 II / View Post
5/1

Tampa Bay @ Boston (GM 1) U8.5 (+113) $100.00 to win $113.00
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (GM 1) U8.5 (+115) $100.00 to win $115.00
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MLB Betting / MLB 2014 II / View Post
5/1
Tampa Bay @ Boston (GM 1) U8.5 (+113) $100.00 to win $113.00
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MLB Betting / MLB 2014 II / View Post
MARCH + APRIL 2014
8-8 +$99.53 ROI 6.42%

5/1
Tampa Bay @ Boston U8.5 (+113) $100.00 to win $113.00
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MLB Betting / MLB 2014 / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by notes:

4/30
Milwaukee/St. Louis U7 -$100.00

APRIL 2014
8-8 +$99.53 ROI 6.42%



Not that anyone cares about my thread, I want to correct the obvious typo in year.
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notes
MLB Betting / MLB 2014 / View Post
4/30
Milwaukee/St. Louis U7 -$100.00

APRIL 2004
8-8 +$99.53 ROI 6.42%

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MLB Betting / MLB 2014 / View Post
4/30

Milwaukee/St. Louis U7 (-111) $100 to win $90.09

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MLB Betting / MLB 2014 / View Post
4/29

Boston RL +$120.00

YTD 8-7 +$199.53 ROI 13.76%
(=$199.35/$1450.00)