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VegasVandal
VegasVandal
Quote Originally Posted by DrinknByTheBay:

The Phillies stick out to me. At home, with the better pitcher, and you're getting +120. Public fading the fighting Phils. Both 8-10 in their respective home/away positions.

I had the Phils.  Biggest reason why...once it was announced that McCutcheon and Hart were out of the lineup, look at the matchups.  Harang had 62 ABs vs today's Pirates starting lineup, prior to today's game.  He had never given up an extra base hit in any of the 62 plate appearances.  (Sorry, would've posted this earlier if i knew the thread existed).
Risk_Taker01
Risk_Taker01
Quote Originally Posted by Risk_Taker01:

Any thoughts on this line movement since it opened? 
Does anybody like the padres today? I'm leaning towards a big bet. 


On Padres.  Cubs have faced 2 quality RH starters this year (Wainwright and Lynn) and have scored 2 runs in 17 innings.  Hit under .220 vs RHP also w/ a high K rate.  Shields has faced Cubs batters 24 times, 0 HR or RBI off him.  Padres good success vs Hammel, who had a nice 2nd half last year, but is historically a little better than pedestrian.  I'll take SD.
vdstrading
vdstrading
Pretty surprised by this line.  Figure it would have been driven to at least -115 by this point.  #1/#2 in Gray vs #5 in Guthrie.  Looking at all the different components, KC has a slight edge being at home with a slightly stronger bullpen (although the A's is no slouch).  Rios being out has seems to hurt a bit, but both teams in the top 5 MLB vs RHP.  Starting pitching though a huge difference and by far the most important component.  I'll take essentially even money on this one.  A's -105 (Listed, Gray-Guthrie).
TopNotchKata
TopNotchKata
Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:

Manager is looking after the kid,he left with a 3 run lead.Blame the bullpen for any losses incurred.

Chip Hale is an idiot.  Perez has terrible splits against lefties (50 full points worse in average as compared to righties) and the Giant SS hits lefties better than righties.  You want to take out Bradley fine, but understand the situation.
vdstrading
vdstrading
That's why you gotta get the best #, for bull$h!t like that.  Half the battle...and in college hoop, buying the 1/2 pt is so key, especially when you're dealing with a poor foul shooting team on the opposite side like Mich St.  Not happy we didn't cover, but with 3 min left, I thought it was a stone cold loser.
vdstrading
vdstrading
Quote Originally Posted by podsox:

like Michigan st to win the game but cant wager on teams that suck at free throws down the stretch of games

+1.  Poor FT shooting is one of the overriding factors here.  Also, this game is less than 3 hrs from Athens, so the crowd will be decidedly pro-GA.  And, Gaines (who didn't play vs Ark) will be playing in some capacity.  I bought to 7 because I just can't see Mich St (who plays most teams very close) winning this game by 8+.  1.5 units of my normal wager on this.
vdstrading
vdstrading
I submit all my stuff on Twitter for free "@vdstrading".  Track records, units, etc., you can see all history.

Today:

Georgia +7 (-120), 1.5 units
Cal Irvine +9, 1.5 units (bet Monday)...+8 I'd still play at 1 unit
Maryland -4, 1 unit

Spread bet:
Belmont +17, over 123 (-120), both 1 unit.

Good luck today.
vdstrading
vdstrading
Yeah, I thought the opening line of 4.5 / 5 was a bit rich, but with Gaines being less than 100%, ok.  6 I thought was way too rich and when I saw the 6 1/2 today, I jumped on it at +7, -120.  As a reference point (although sometimes he's off), KenPom has this game Mich St -2 in a neutral court setting.  Sagarin has it at -4.5. 
vdstrading
vdstrading
One of my 3 accounts just put this game up to 6 1/2.  I bought it to 7.  I might be wrong, but I think you have to take those points.
vdstrading
vdstrading
I don't know...I know that Izzo wins games in March, no doubt.  But this team has been all over the map this year.  Sure, they're in an uptrend (which is where you want to be in March), but the fact remains that Georgia has an excellent defense.  Gaines is nicked up, so I think that's some of this though.
vdstrading
vdstrading
I know they played well in Big 10 tourney, but seems like 6 pts is a big # for Mich St. to lay in a game like this...there will also be a huge Georgia contingent in Charlotte too, as it's a sub-3 hour drive to get there.  GA plays teams real tough, and Mich St hasn't been exactly blowing teams out, even lately.  Anyone have a different perspective that I might be missing...I thought 5 was the top number and now that number is 6 with a little premium.  THanks.
ryno23
ryno23
Where can I find xplanation on AJ again? Know it has something to do w 2H total. Thanks again for posts Ryno, good stuff man, good luck in tourney.
TopNotchKata
TopNotchKata
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

This is a finals preview. Expect to see a little more intensity on defense by both teams and for GS not to hit 20 3 pointers....

 

Warriors win 103 -97



Both teams will ratchet up the defensive effort tonight.  Like under 214 1/2, grabbed it around 1PM.
ryno23
ryno23
Quote Originally Posted by ReelBigFisch:

I was able to get Tenn. State +15.5

 


Something up with the Tenn St. line.  Makes no sense.  I'm on it from 14, but 30% only on Moorehead and a 2 pt move in their favor, making it 3.5 pts away from KP designated line.  Not good.
GuanoBowl
GuanoBowl
4-3...Cuse, Tenn, Utah St were losers.  Nice job though lately.
aaironworks
aaironworks
Quote Originally Posted by vicb:

aairon,id be very weary of the rangers and sharks at that price. At least cut it down to a -1 or a regulation play. I wouldnt be surprised to see one of those dogs win outright. Not bashing the picks,just trying to help

I'm on Edmonton +254.  SJ might blow them out, but it's got letdown game written all over it for SJ.  Just beat Chicago, LA, and Anaheim w/ next 2 games at Calgary and Vancouver, both 3 pts behind them.  Edmonton 5-6 in last 11, 33 goals for vs 34 goals against including wins against Blackhawks, Isles, and Caps.  SJ too expensive here.
ryno23
ryno23
Alabama A&M is the only one that's close...doesn't qualify, but that's a juicy number for a SWAC game.
CAPT-DOUCHE
CAPT-DOUCHE
Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

Nice hit it was the correct side and you deserve to win.  

I have VMI -8 for the game and it feels like a loss, maybe we both win.

What is your thought as to why this spread rallied from 6.5 to 9 at tip with VMI player out?

biggs33
biggs33
Quote Originally Posted by charlieb43:

just read on espn insider that VTech's leading guard BIBBS is expected to miss against n dame tomorrow  (concussion).  line should jump from 9 to 12 before tip.  Thoughts on rocking ND?

Is he questionable or doubtful?
LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Quote Originally Posted by masterkush:

Also remember it's Friday night and Okc will be pumped up for the home crowd. .

Good luck 

League

Or OKC is more concerned about Brook Lopez coming to town and Perkins / Lamb being traded away.
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