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Thread Author mmeiselman731 Post Entries
Mush516
Mush516
73-69 UCLA
mmeiselman731
mmeiselman731
NYG/CHI UNDER 47 and BEARS -7.5

Fans may be unwilling to admit it, but the Giants are a very bad football team. Eli Manning has never been elite, and it's possible that he's regressed from his previous top-10 status to a middle-of-the-road starting QB. The Giants are very good at wide receiver, but can you find another position on the roster that isn't a weakness? The defensive line could still potentially bounce back, but the running backs, offensive line, linebackers, and secondary are all downright atrocious.

On the other hand, the Bears are a pretty underrated team. The defense isn't quite as good as it used to be, but it's still solid, and the offense appears to have made some significant strides. The Bears are the far superior team and should be favored by two touchdowns. As for the total, this a matchup between a team that's horrible offensively and horrible defensively against a team that's good defensively and average offensively. The total should be below the league average (roughly 44-45 points) and not above it at 47.

Prediction: Bears 27-16

other picks:

JAGUARS +26.5

PANTHERS +2.5

CLE/DET UNDER 45.5

BILLS +7.5

CLE/BUF UNDER 41.5

SD/IND OVER 50
rpetras43
rpetras43
This game will definitely be close the line should be PK...it should also be low scoring which makes a blowout less likely
mmeiselman731
mmeiselman731
JETS +9.5 (wait on this line, should be trending up)

The Falcons are not as good as people think they are. The offensive line is a mess, Roddy White is hurt, the defense has a bunch of injuries, and Steven Jackson still isn't playing. The Jets offense is inconsistent, but their defense is outstanding and that should be enough to keep this game close.
Prediction: 24-20 Falcons

TEXANS +6 (wait on this line, should be trending up)

This bet will be a lot better if Patrick Willis sits, but it's good nonetheless. The Niners have regressed from last year, but Vegas seems to have forgotten about that after a nice win over the lowly Rams. This team still has a lot of problems, and they're relatively even with Houston. This line should be under a field goal.
Prediction: 23-20 Niners
mmeiselman731
mmeiselman731
CLE/BUF UNDER 41

Everyone knows how good the Browns defense has been, but the Bills defense has quietly been even better. Offensively, both teams should struggle to move the ball. The Bills offense is a work in progress and C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson are going to be banged up for this one. The Browns offense is simply horrible despite the emergence of Jordan Cameron and Josh Gordon, as the quarterback Brian Hoyer and the group of running backs lack true talent. Look for a game that goes right down to the wire with something in the neighborhood of a 17-16 final score.
PREDICTION: 17-16 Browns

BILLS +4.5

It's going to be a close game, so you'll want to take the points with the Bills as well. As previously mentioned, this is an outstanding defense, and the Bills offense is bad but still definitely better than Cleveland's. 
PREDICTION: 17-16 Browns

EAGLES +2.5

The Eagles have looked bad recently, but it's been against stiff competition (KC, DEN). The Giants are a complete mess right now on both sides of the ball and it's hard to justify them laying points against almost any team in the NFL. My numbers suggest the Eagles should be roughly a field goal favorite in this game, giving this line very good value. 
PREDICTION: 27-23 Eagles

JAX/STL UNDER 41.5

Both teams have bad defenses, but their offenses are even worse. The Jaguars currently have the worst offense of all time through four weeks (per DVOA), and the Rams haven't really been much better. They have a scored a grand total of 18 points in the last 2 weeks, 8 of which came on a TD and 2-point conversion in garbage time last week in San Francisco. Justin Blackmon's return should give the Jaguars offense a boost, but not nearly enough to get this game over the total.
PREDICTION: 23-13 Rams

NO/CHI UNDER 48.5

One of the biggest surprises of the 2013 season has been the Saints defense. The once laughable unit has allowed 17, 14, 7, and 17 points through four weeks. Vegas has adjusted by making the game in Chicago this week a pick 'em game, but they haven't adjusted for the total. This bet is a good one simply because the number is too high, and it should be 5 or 6 points lower.
PREDICTION: 23-20 Bears

PANTHERS -1.5

The Panthers are a much, much better team than Arizona. Since they struggled last year and are only 1-2 this year, no one is giving Carolina any credit, but they have played very well this season. They were a Deangelo Williams fumble on the Seahawks 10-yard line away from beating Seattle, they lost to the Bills on the road on a last-second touchdown, and they destroyed the Giants 38-0. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are worse than their 2-2 record suggests. They rank 28th in DVOA, and have benefited from some lucky bounces and timely breaks.
PREDICTION: 24-17 Panthers

SD/OAK 44.5

Both offensive units in this game are underrated. The Chargers have been a borderline elite offense this season thanks to the resurgence of Philip Rivers who has been absolutely amazing. The Raiders offense isn't great, but Terrelle Pryor has been improving every week. Dwight Freeney is also out for the season, which is a huge blow to the Chargers defense.
PREDICTION: 27-24 Chargers


mmeiselman731
mmeiselman731
Jaguars +9

CHI/DET UNDER 48.5

Chargers +2.5

Seahawks -1.5

Jets +4.5
mmeiselman731
mmeiselman731
Patrick Willis inactive 
mmeiselman731
mmeiselman731
Noonkid
Noonkid
Denver, KC, New Orleans, Indy in that order
mmeiselman731
mmeiselman731
Some people may think it's too quick write the 49ers off as one of the top Super Bowl contenders, but I don't. San Francisco's last two games have been about as dreadful as any two games can be. Losing 29-3 at Seattle isn't inexcusable but it was still a horrible performance for San Fran to get blown out the way they did. The 27-7 loss at home to the Colts has horrific especially considering the quality of opponent and home field advantage. SF simply isn't playing well.

The other concerning thing about the Niners is injuries. This was a team that had very few injuries over the last two years but regression is beginning to bite them in the butt. Vernon Davis is banged up but does expect to play this week. Aldon Smith and probably Patrick Willis won't be so lucky. Smith is a vital cog in the Niners defense, and Willis is probably its most important player. Without these two guys, we're looking at a team that's pretty mediocre on both sides of the ball. The Rams aren't a good team but a below average team at home against an average team is roughly a coin flip, and may even slightly favor the Rams. It's a gift to be getting over a field goal in this one.

CrazyMilkMan
CrazyMilkMan
Betting on SF is betting on last year's team. Aldon Smtih is out and Patrick Willis will be out or severely limited at best. The offense also seems to have regressed. 7 points against the Colts at home is unacceptable.
mmeiselman731
mmeiselman731
My picks are made using a formula based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric and injury adjustments based on the stats at Pro Football Focus.

Last week 5-1-1
YTD 9-7-1

RAMS +4
JAGAURS +9
CHI/DET UNDER 48.5
CHARGERS +2.5
SEAHAWKS -3
JETS +4.5

mmeiselman731
mmeiselman731
ADDED BONUS: Champ Bailey is inactive tonight
mmeiselman731
mmeiselman731
Raiders +15

The Broncos have had two very impressive games, but the Raiders are probably the best defense they've played so far (consult Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings if you don't believe me). Ryan Clady is an excellent left tackle and his presence will be missed tonight. Von Miller is still suspended and although his absence hasn't been notable yet, there's only so long that can last. Denver's offensive fireworks have been so prominent that it would be hard for the casual observer to notice that the defense isn't getting much pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Denver wins this game, but it'll be closer than you might expect.
mmeiselman731
mmeiselman731
mmeiselman731
mmeiselman731
WEEK 2: 3-2

WEEK 3 PICKS:

BALTIMORE RAVENS +3
CAROLINA PANTHERS PK
PACKERS/BENGALS OVER 48.5

mmeiselman731
mmeiselman731
FO picks all of the games each week and its entirely based on their formula....they don't look into short term injuries and they don't pick totals either
mmeiselman731
mmeiselman731
3-2 not bad 
mmeiselman731
mmeiselman731
adding Seahawks/Niners over 44.5
mmeiselman731
mmeiselman731
My picks are made using a formula based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric and injury adjustments based on the stats at Pro Football Focus.

Week 1 was a losing week, but week 2 got off to a good start with Jets getting the cover. Here's the rest of my week 2 picks:

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS +8
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS +3.5
NEW YORK GIANTS +4.5
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