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DegenGamble

DegenGamble
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Los Angeles Rams -6.5 - W

Atlanta Falcons -4

Chicago Bears -2.5

Houston Texans +1.5

Dallas Cowboys -3

Green Bay Packers -9.5

Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5

New England Patriots -6.5

Philadelphia Eagles -3.5

Arizona Cardinals +3.5

Oakland Raiders -2.5

New York Giants +3.5

Los Angeles Chargers -10

Pittsburgh Steelers -3

Denver Broncos +4.5

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Week 3 - more of the same - i'll post one more week and then I think I have to go back to the lab and do a deep dive in the numbers.

7 - 9  (43.75%)

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Cleveland Browns -3 W

New Orleans Saints 3.5

Cincinnati Bengals 3.5

Housten Texans -5.5

Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5

Kansas City Chiefs -6.5

Oakland Raiders3.5

Minnesota Vikings -16.5

Indianapolis Colts +7

Denver Broncos 5.5

Washington Redskins +3

Los Angeles Rams -7

Chicago Bears -4.5

Dallas Cowboys +2.5

New England Patriots -6.5

Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5

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WEEK 2 - More DISGUSTING - 6-10 37.5%

Taking a deep dive into the numbers to see what may be wrong.  Only good news is bets are working out as I don't bet all the plays from the method - but I expect the method to be 55% + on the season - so something is wrong.

 

Thursdays Pick

CLE-3

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Week 2

 

Baltimore Ravens -0.5 L

 

Atlanta Falcons -5.5

 

Los Angeles Chargers -7.5

 

Minnesota Vikings 0.5

 

New Orleans Saints -8.5

 

New York Jets -2.5

 

Houston Texans -3

 

Kansas City Chiefs +5.5

 

Philadelphia Eagles -3

 

Indianapolis Colts +6

 

Arizona Cardinals +13.5

 

Detroit Lions +6

 

Denver Broncos -5.5

 

New England Patriots -1

 

New York Giants +3

 

Seattle Seahawks 3.5

 

Just some side notes - I like the KC pick - good value there.  Thinkin' parlay KC and UNDER.  Other picks the method made that I like are MIN & NYJ

As always - these are just leans the method produced.  I don't bet every game and a lot of times I will make various bets based on Value - ie. Sides, Parlays, Teasers.  For example -I like a 6pt 3 team tease - MIN, NYJ, KC

Best of luck this weekend

 

 

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WEEK 2 - THURSDAY

BAL - PK

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Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:

Hey degen, just wondering what site you use. I want to tinker with this method and report the results back to thread to add to our collective knowledge.   bOL this season, last year was great!

 

I don't want to say the exact site since I scrape their site for their data and just in case - you know - but its one of the top 4 fantasy football sites

ESPN, YAHOO, CBS SPORTS, NFL

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So 1 word for week 1 - DISGUSTING!!!!

I don't want to even talk about it - I just want to forget about it and move to week 2.

4-11-1   - 31.25%    an_brick

 

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Quote Originally Posted by therealdutch:

Don’t see the HOU v NE game up there degen. Just FYI. Didn’t know if that was intentional or accident

Cut & Paste Error - it was HOU +6.5 - KC was listed twice

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crap i can't past anything that looks like a link

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Wont let me post a link - so use the text above but make sure to add "h t t p s" in front no spaces

 

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Ok so put the spreadsheet on g-drive.  Here is the link - I usually put preliminary leans on Tuesday as that's when the week's projections are available on the site I use.  I will then update again on Thursday for the Thursday night game and Saturday before the Sunday games.

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Atlanta Falcons 1.5

Pittsburgh Steelers          -4

Indianapolis Colts             -2.5

Tennessee Titans             -1.5

San Francisco 49ers         6.5

New Orleans Saints         -9.5

kansas City Chiefs            6.5

Jacksonville Jaguars         -3

Buffalo Bills         7.5

Kansas City Chiefs            3.5

Dallas Cowboys 3

Arizona Cardinals             -1

Denver Broncos -3

Chicago Bears    7.5

Detroit Lions      -6.5

Los Angeles Rams            -4

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Picks for this weekend until I figure out the best way to share the picks via spreadsheet and g-drive

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Hey fellow system/handicapping enthusiasts,

So its tough to post and track every week but i'll try to figure out a way to post my spreadsheet with my picks.  Maybe make it available on G-Drive and provide a link for folks to check it and maybe whoever is using it ca help post the plays from the spreadsheet.

I'll see what I can do.  Either way Thursday's pick is.....

ATL+3.5 - you can go down to ATL+1.5 and ATL is still the play.

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So that's all folks - I hope this thread inspires some creative handicapping methods using fantasy football predictive scores to help handicap NFL games.

It's far from perfect - I would love to see some folks track the predictive scores / stats and come up with a better way to translate how many fantasy points equates to real live points.
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Season results:  overall 152-100-3 60.3% win rate for the season
 
Week 1: 8-7 53%
Week 2: 9-7 56%
Week 3: 12-4 75%
Week 4: 11-5 69%
Week 5: 7-7 50%
Week 6: 9-5 64%
Week 7: 6-8-1 43%
Week 8: 10-3 77%
Week 9: 8-4-1 67%
Week 10: 8-6 57%
Week 11: 9-5 64%
Week 12: 13-3 81%
Week 13: 8-8 50%
Week 14 6-10 37%
Week 15 9-6-1 60%
Week 16 9-7 56%
Week 17 10-6 62.5%
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Week 17 results

10-6  62.5%

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Week 17 Picks per the method

JAX +3
ATL -3.5
BAL -9
WAS -3
DET -6.5
MIN -12
CLE +6.5
NOR -6
DAL -2.5
IND -4.5
NE -15
BUF -2.5
SF -3
SEA -8.5
LAC -7.5
DEN -3.5

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Season results:
 
Week 1: 8-7 53%
Week 2: 9-7 56%
Week 3: 12-4 75%
Week 4: 11-5 69%
Week 5: 7-7 50%
Week 6: 9-5 64%
Week 7: 6-8-1 43%
Week 8: 10-3 77%
Week 9: 8-4-1 67%
Week 10: 8-6 57%
Week 11: 9-5 64%
Week 12: 13-3 81%
Week 13: 8-8 50%
Week 14 6-10 37%
Week 15 9-5-1 60%
Week 16 9-7 56%
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