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TomE
TomE
NFL Betting / NFL Week 10 / View Post
ADDING

2 team teaser

SF   -7
Sea -1/2   2.2 to win 2 units
TomE
TomE
NFL Betting / NFL Week 10 / View Post
In view of the Avatar crisis on Covers (LOL) , I'm adding this
DD play  

Det -3 -105
Dal -2  -110       2 Team Parlay   1 unit to win  2.72 units

BOL everyone.

EricAnderson
EricAnderson
NFL Betting / ML parlays / View Post
BOL

tonyrome
tonyrome
Tony buddy, BOL !
  


TomE
TomE
NFL Betting / NFL Week 10 / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by choiOi:

mcfadden is out for oak


Yep, heard that.

My reaction?   Yawn.  

He's got 455 yards on the season. 56.9 per game.  Sorry, but I don't see that as a great loss. 

Bring in the next guy up, let's see what he can do.



BOL
TomE
TomE
NFL Betting / NFL Week 10 / View Post
Thank you glyde69
Keep it simple. Keep it simple.... truer words never spoken

dmay
dmay
I didn't even mention SF is coming off their bye!   OUCH! 
RACK OF LAMB!    LOL


dmay
dmay
Like your card overall and think you hit your 3 "locks" even though I am one of those who hates hearing that word and doesn't believe it exists - "any given Sunday"....

I don't like your Atl pick - road fav vs division rival finding their mojo. Atl is a "sexy" pick, time for those dirty birds to drop a game....

I really don't like your SL pick, and I have NO CLUE wtf you are talking about "2 good D's".  Are you giving SF's great defense double credit?
SL just gave up 45 to the Pats! How is that a "good D"? The only other "good teams" they also played (I'm talking about likely PlayOff bound teams) were GB (lost by 10 @ home) and Chi (lost by 17).
They haven't shown the slightest indication this year or last for that matter that they can even compete against a very good team. Because this is a Divisional Game, and SF is looking to continue their stranglehold on it, I see SF focused and prepared to send some very well-done Rack of Lamb back to SL  I think you're way off base on this one but come Sunday, we will see.....

BOL   
PrimeTimeBoys
PrimeTimeBoys
Quote Originally Posted by rr207:



i can't remember if tom brady has ever lost to the bills at home.  i think it would be a monster of an upset if it happened this weekend.


Agree. Throw in that NE is off the bye, offense rolling now, Bills on the skids, & NE has already blown out the Bills @ Buf by 52-27!, I don't see any way NE loses this weekend.

Really bad luck for Buf right now having had to face Hou off their bye and now NE off theirs.

That said, I will be looking for a spot to take 'em as a dog @ home in freezing temps vs a warm-weather team sometime coming up...
maybe getting points vs Mia next Thurs??? Temps are forecast 44-36 for that day, that may not be it...not cold enough.

BOL


jackson409
jackson409
NFL Betting / Sagarin? / View Post
Ummm, I haven't checked the Jeff Sagarin #s in years.
These days, I rely on my own stuff.
That said, I remember he was pretty good. If he said -3, and they were actually favored by -5, you took the dog and usually it was a winner, and vice-versa. You don't look for his numbers that are right on, you key on the ones where there's a discrepancy between the actual line and his #.
BOL with it regardless.
AmpleGamble
AmpleGamble
The two D's - Detroit and Dallas. Those are 2 lines to take advantage of IMO.
BOL
topshow
topshow


Agree Oak and NE.
Car? Who would I rather have: Peyton Manning or Cam Newton? Not a tough choice IMO.....OK, they may cover but I don't see them winning.
Hou - I'd rather have the home boys here.
KC - I can't explain it better than you, I just have a feeling Pit wins but doesn't quite cover the big spread.

BOL!
TomE
TomE
NFL Betting / NFL Week 10 / View Post
choi
Agree with your take on the Chargers/Bucs. That's exactly how I'm feeling.  Pass for me. I don't trust TB as a fav.

Your comments on Oak are spot on and that's why I go against them when they're favored. As dogs, my experience is they are a different animal.
Guess we'll see Sunday if they play "up" again with the oddsmakers and public giving them no chance, or not....

BOL
Get_Capped
Get_Capped
Now who's the BITCH, BITCH?

Fucking hate that kind of bullcrap post, learn some humility A-HOLE

What a dumb a$$ pick.   LOL
TomE
TomE
NFL Betting / NFL Week 10 / View Post
oops...
@ choi       I'm thinking a couple more favs than dogs this week, in spite of the inflated lines (IMO), so I guess I agree with you overall.

My score running down the list is 8 favs, 4 dogs, and 2 in which I can't make up my mind. That includes the game last night in which I picked the fav.
My 2 undecideds are SD @ TB, KC @ Pit.  lean TB but don't know, could go either way IMO. Yeah, Pit to win but that spread sure is lofty...

BOL 2 U!
TomE
TomE
NFL Betting / NFL Week 10 / View Post
@ billyweather    thank you    BOL 2 U 2  

@ choiOi  -

I want to comment now on my 6 team parlay. Obviously, I like it or I wouldn't have made it. I am not delusional, I know the payout is because the odds against me are approx 50-1. All it would take would be a Carson Palmer pic 6, or another underestimation of Atl, or an incorrect belief that the Jets might just put together a solid effort @ Sea (one of the NFL's toughest venues for opposing teams), or being dead wrong that Dal is a less crappy team than Philly. Anyway, I'm apparently in a gambling mood with that pick.
That said, here are my thoughts regarding teams which suddenly showed up in that parlay without prior comment.

NYG - already talked about

Oak +7.5   I've had Oak correctly pegged the last 4 games just by going with my opinion that they are a great dog and a crappy fav. When you count them down and out, they surprise. Just when you think they are better than you gave them credit for, they stink it up.
Who thought they would beat Pit and give Atl a tough game? Be honest....  LOL
The flip side is that I see Balt as one of those teams that seems to only do what they have to to win. When they're ahead, they seem to lack the killer instinct and they play conservatively. When they're down, they turn Flacco loose and then he can move that team with ease, or so it seems. I absolutely hate betting on these guys, making me turn and squirm in anger as I watch them favored "big" and sitting on a small lead calling prehistoric dinosaur football with run, run, pass, punt. Last week was an exception, I backed them because of my opinion that they are, all in all, a "good team" and they were coming off the bye after a humiliating defeat @ Hou. That said, they STILL made me squirm wondering if they were going to cover!  That's my "psychological profile" of these two teams, and hence my pick.

N.O. +2.5    I counted N.O. down and out, and even though I know they play super football @ home in Prime Time, I inexplicably went against them MN with 2 late bets. I was also trying to catch a middle, so I'll cut myself a tiny bit of slack for not just letting my prior bets ride as I should have. I did watch the game, and I was impressed. I can now give N.O.  a pass for the earlier part of their season, when they were still reeling from the backlash of "pay for pain" and it's consequences. However, my impression now is these guys have settled in are are back on track playing greatly inspired ball @ HOME. This Atl matchup is as big as they come, and I have no doubt they will be looking to hand a loss to the undefeated Falcons, who are a good team, but perhaps not as good as their record indicates. I'll take Drew Brees and company to take down the Falcons in N.O.'s most important contest in this season to date.

NYJ +6    Yeah, I know...this looks like a real head-scratcher.
Here's what I know. I like to go against these guys (Jets) when they are fat-headed and providing their opponents locker room material with their easily predictable over-confident trash talk during the week before the game. I also like Mia as a dog and so that contest 2 weeks ago was an easy pick for me. Now they've had a week off to stew over that home embarrassment, and what I love is I have not heard one peep (rightly so) from them about how "great they are and how they are going to crush the Seahags". On the contrary, they are openly paying their respects to Sea and how well they perform at home. IMO, this spells "focus". Combine this with the media's announcements that Rex Ryan is the most over-rated coach in the NFL....I see a nice, quietly motivated team ready to put together a good game. I do like Sea as a team, and I could see how they were and should have been, and did cover a big spread (over 3 pts)  against a floundering Vikes team. Here they are again, laying another big number and I see value in taking the points in this spot.

Dal -2    Contest of two over-rated, under-performing teams. This one comes down to my opinion that Dal is less shitty than Phil. The tie-breaker is Phil's OL woes. This is such a big thing in the NFL. No protection = QB abuse ---->  losing.   I'm sure as well that Dal will find ways to make this a tougher contest than it should be, but it's been a while since Romo has had a great effort resulting in a win so I'm thinking he's way overdue. On paper, this looks like a blow-out Dal win, but realistically, all considered, probably a tough 3 pt win. I seriously believe that Phil has a black cloud over them. Whatever can go wrong, does...in spades. Maybe it's bad Vick Karma, or Dogma...   lol

SF -11    Already discussed but in very little detail. I'll add a bit now.
I view SF as a power-house team, very balanced and good on both sides of the ball, playing @ home and most importantly, coming off their bye.  Maybe the larger consideration to me is the other guys, those pathetic Lambs. These guys stink it up on the road against good teams.
@ Det (a so-so team)                             L 23-27
@ Chi (good team)                                 L 23-6 
@ Mia (avg team)                                   L 17-14
on the road vs NE (good team) in London  L 45-7

I will  be surprised if SL can keep the score within 2 TDs.

I welcome any opinions, trends you want to throw out there at me, stats, whatever.   I've been messing around with parlays and a teaser (love that one) as already posted with only one "serious" straight play - NYG.   I'm thinking about adding a couple of other straight bets before game time Sunday - looking seriously @ Dal, NO, Chi.

Oh, Chicago hosting Hou......2 tough teams, I'll take the SN home boys laying less than a FG.   DEFENSE BABY!

BOL to all!   
  




TomE
TomE
NFL Betting / NFL Week 10 / View Post
Indy -3 -130   1.3 units to win 1 unit     

Pending:
NE     -2.5
NYG  +4.5
Den   +5
SF     -3     TEASER  -  5 Teams   (8.5 pts)
Pit     -4                      1 unit to win 1.8 units 

NE  -11
SF  -11.5    PARLAY    1 unit to win 2.645 units 

ADDING:

NYG   -3.5                   1.1 unit to win 1 unit


NYG -3.5
Oak +7.5
N.O. +2.5
NYJ  +6
Dal  -2
S.F.  -11              1 unit to win 47.4 units     6 team parlay        
LOL

I have no comment on my 6 team Parlay other than....  LOL !!!



Post Indy/Jack game comments

I was pleasantly surprised to see what I thought was good officiating. I almost expected some fishy calls going Jack's way, but they never happened.
Also, the game pretty much reinforced what I already knew - Luck is pretty darn good (excepting an INT and Fumble in the red zone) and that the Colts ARE playing inspired FB. I think it's a pretty good indicator when the whole team shaves their heads in honor and support of Coach Pagano's situation that they are very focused and energized to achieve lofty goals for this season.
Also, from what I saw, Jack is quite deserving of their 1-8 record. Enough said.




NegLineMovement
NegLineMovement
Quote Originally Posted by NegLineMovement:

I mean come on, no way the public wins three NFL primetime games in a row?



I guess you mean you Had Dallas and Philly...

I'm not sure if those should be considered "public wins" for the home teams (Atl, NO) because there were an awful lot of people on those 2 dogs... I think the House did just fine on those 2 games.

I think you cap this game tonight, and go with your opinion...or pass.

BOL



LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper
Your threads are must-read material for me. Another fine job here. Kudos and Thanks!
Love the picks, well...Jets and Ten. I do see the value in Car though at home. I just hope Den does not lose by more than 5 to kill my teaser.

Whenever I see the media making hay with something like "Ryan over-rated", I immediately consider going against it. Had the exact same reaction a couple of weeks ago when all I was hearing was the "Reid after-bye week" stuff.

BOL this week, I hope you go 3-0 (but I hope you only barely cover the Car - LOL).



Dubfire
Dubfire
Quote Originally Posted by woodsy5822:

Luck isnt the average 'rookie' Qb.. line is where it should be IMO



Exactly. Luck got to apprentice under Harbaugh (who jumped to SF and turned a team with mediocre results into a contender with virtually the same crew!). Luck also stayed back another year to develop his skills further, a smart move.

It does not seem to me that it's the usual "huge step" for this QB, college to NFL when you consider he's was already playing in a pro-style offense.

Also, the "rookie" angle is not very applicable. Luck is highly intelligent, and a quick study. He got his "welcome to the NFL" with a 41-21 drubbing by Chi.  5-2 since and appearing more amazing each week.  Facing a team he already played in and lost to in week 3 is excellent motivation.

Also, Jack is absolutely a "chopped liver" team. They are poor: offense and defense; rushing and passing.



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