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Thread Author bk1374 Post Entries
bk1374
bk1374
Adding 


Rangers ML (+125) -- Risking 1 unit


Good price on Minor who's throwing well.  Rangers playing decent, and A's are streaky AF (aren't they always it seems?).  
bk1374
bk1374
****correction*****  Not COOK and Reynolds, but Cole Tucker and Reynolds.  Not sure where I got cook from.  
bk1374
bk1374
For me MLB is a grind, so over the years I've really tried sticking to a flat betting strategy, or at least as close to one as I can get.  

For others using a flat bet "model" of betting, how do you approach it?  Do you always risk the same amount for each game, regardless of price?  Do you lower your risk on bigger dogs?  Do you increase your risk on favorites and always wager to win the same?

Generally the way I do it is to risk X to win 1 unit on favorites, and risk 1 unit to win X on dogs.  But I'm wondering if that is not the normal way?  I was considering making my risk on all favorites be 1 unit, and for all dogs risk X to win 1 unit?  Those two might be slightly similar.  

I admit I will still occasionally bump a wager up to 2  units, or play a slew of smaller bets, but I'm trying to find more consistency in how I approach each slate of games, in terms of how I'm wagering.  

Anyone have thoughts on this?  

If not, oh well.  

Tonight I'm on:

Pirates ML (-130) -- Risking 1.3 units

Also liking Rangers and White Sox. 


Pirates missing a couple bats on offense, but I really like the guys they called up to replace and we should get some more productivity out of them (Cook and Reynolds).  But the bigger angle here is that I think we have a much better, and more consistent, starter in Musgrove going tonight.  Maybe I'm over-valuing him a little bit, but I think he has a lot of upside and is poised to improve on his decent numbers from last year.  

Godley was wildly inconsistent last season, and not really a pitcher I'd trust to get me back to back quality starts.  Dbacks are without a couple guys on offense too.

* Better team (even if just marginally)
* Better starter
* At home, vs. team that traveled yesterday

Could be a tight game, as Pirates offense isn't going to outslug you most nights with this lineup, but I think we still have an edge at/around this price range.  

HigherPlane
HigherPlane
Quote Originally Posted by HigherPlane:

bK.. I’m not some ego maniac. I can dig that.. No I have never posted on here before.. and I guess my frustration stems partly from some of your past experiences then.. and also because I CAN PROVE it! It’s all in my Intertops History! Sp it’s extremely frustrating that you guys think I didn’t turn my $150 into over $14,500 at its peak.. I was KILLING it before I started posting here. Bad days happen to everyone. But thank you BK, I guess I’ve never seen it from your perspective b4. gL tonight bro


I think the bottom line is that no one really cares what you did in the past before you started posting here.  Maybe you did, maybe you didn't, it's 100% moot.  

GL on the plays. 
Rolexwrist
Rolexwrist
I use excel, and definitely feel like it's work sometimes.  It's not bad if you are staying on top of it, and updating daily, but it's the times I get behind that it becomes cumbersome and admittedly at times I've scrapped it and started over.  

Either way, I do think it's important to track your wagers and it can be helpful in finding leaks in your wagering once you have enough data. 
HigherPlane
HigherPlane
Quote Originally Posted by HigherPlane:

Yesterday got swept in MLB.. the crazy part is lost all games or RL by ONE Run!! Made the right plays and wouldn’t have changed a thing.. sometimes crazy things happen in MLB but that’s ok, Because that only means that TODAY, the odds are in our favor. And TODAY I am way more infatuated with these picks than I have been all week. 4/22 Plays:

Pirates ML (-131) 4U

Yankees/Angels OVER 8.5 6U**

Phillies ML (+105) 3U

Orioles ML (last night got at +115) 3U

Astros RL -1.5 (+105) 4U

NHL

Dallas Stars ML (last night got at -120) 4U

NBA

PISTONS -12 (last night as well)

3U

 

As I stated late last night after I finally hit with Blazers 1H and then ML for full game.. I feel a LOT of negative energy from the community. And that is fine. Seems a lot also don’t believe I am a winning capper and didn’t take my $150 this year and turn it into over $14,500 (now $11,770) and that is fine! Please fade these picks! No more playing nice guy with people with nothing but bad energy. You will LOSE in the long run going against me. Period. To everyone else, the winning starts up BIG Tonight. As always GL. Let’s get em 

 


Coming into the forum and bragging about turning $X into $X on plays that you never posted here and have ZERO proof to back up is about as "negative energy" as you can be around here.

People give you crap because this "song and dance" has been done THOUSANDS of times on here, and wouldn't doubt been done by YOU previously under a different name.  

Maybe come here, share you picks on your insight on the games and prove you are at least somewhat knowledgeable before the chest-thumping and whining about negativity come out??  Just a thought.  You won't listen, doesn't matter.  

Wash, rinse, repeat.  
ramboo
ramboo
NHL Betting / Mr. Poison / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:

Ahhh ok no offense, you just said you were gonna hop on, just looking out. Cheers.

None taken!!  

If I jump on, it would just be something small for a little action.  I think it's crazy how many people I see making big wagers (or at least claiming they did) on someone else's picks.  


hillardoh1
hillardoh1
Some real hard-core handicapping going on here.  
nickydimes
nickydimes
Quote Originally Posted by Trojan28:

Probably because the Marlins starting pitcher is actually decent. He won last time out against Phillies, went 6 plus innings I think, the Marlins last good performance. Their offense still sucks though so I’d take Washington anyway.


Agreed. At home with Smith going, coupled with Nats not exactly tearing the cover off of the ball and  Sanchez is pretty average and their bull-pen has issues have given us a slight bargain on the price. 

I think Nats are worth a play, they've hit lefties well so far this year, and Marlins offense is basically MIA (no pun intended) outside of a couple random outbursts.   Smith won't be this lights out every outing, although he does have some upside long term.  
ramboo
ramboo
NHL Betting / Mr. Poison / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:

bk I wouldn't advise using your money to ever blindly fade a random stranger, he did win his bets two nights ago, you're only inviting bad things by doing that. Only reason I asked. Sounds like you have something to root for anyway

I don't ever blind tail or fade anyone for any type of significant wager.  I've been around way too long to not know that, thanks. 


ramboo
ramboo
NHL Betting / Mr. Poison / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by Polar_Bear:


Who do you like tonight in the two games?

In tonight's NHL games?  LOL......no clue.  I don't really cap NHL games at all, and rarely even tail or make small wagers.  I'm in a bracket pool and need Flames and Leafs to win, so I'll just be rooting for that, unless I decide to try fading Mr. Poison.

I really enjoy watching playoff hockey and generally find it more enjoyable when I don't have wagers on the specific games.  
ramboo
ramboo
NHL Betting / Mr. Poison / View Post
Good stuff.  Saw his name pop up on a different forum, so he's getting some notoriety (not the good kind).  I'll hop on now and I'm sure he'll get hot.   Sorry in advance.  
Xaquun
Xaquun
Quote Originally Posted by Xaquun:

im not sure is it good in the long run but when baseball is pretty random and dogs offer so big return i think its decent strategy. 

It can be, but you can't just arbitrarily play every +200 or higher dog on the card, you'll be broke just as quick as someone only playing high juice faves.  So you'll need some criteria to filter down the games that have proper value to wager.  You also need to overcome the fear of wagering on "bad" teams and "bad" starters, because you will have to put faith in them!  

kidd22
kidd22
Baseball is a grind (for me at least).  I generally don't even start capping games until a few weeks into the season to let teams/pitchers get plenty of games in.  Helps me get a better feel for things.  I may lose some value on early season mis-priced lines, but I'm OK with that considering I still have 5-6 months of wagering ahead of me.  But yeah, starting off on the cold side is never any fun.  Good luck turning it around.  

Redsox2009
Redsox2009
Quote Originally Posted by Redsox2009:

Hate this fake sport it had WWE written all over itan_arsed


If it's rigged, why did you start a different thread congratulating the "real" winners?  If it's fake, who cares who won and why bother congratulating them if it was scripted anyway?

Sounds like you're just a sore loser/baby.  You'll fit in well here. 


zebrakiller
zebrakiller

Quote Originally Posted by zebrakiller:

funny how vegas does this and the drafts and trades arent done yet

 

Exactly, the books don't care that the drafts and trades are far from over.  They have a large amount of cushion in these future bets relative to the actually odds, so they will almost always welcome future bets.  Just like the books that odds out on the Lakers to win before LeBron signed there.  I doubt they were ever really worried.  

 

 

jjj888
jjj888
Quote Originally Posted by jjj888:

That is correct, I am trying to walk away with a few hundred in the pocket vs a longshot at $800

Well, then you should have just ML bet Oregon round one, and put all your winnings on the ML in the 2nd round.  

ML on Virginia is probably too high to reasonably get you a "few hundred", not to mention if they pull the upset now you've got to do it again and already cut into your potential profits.

I would say hope they pull off another upset and then see what you can do in the Regional Final.  Hedging with two games left seems so asinine to me. 
jjj888
jjj888
Why even make the bet if you are going to try to hedge it when they still have two games left?  



LET


IT


RIDE



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buffer
Quote Originally Posted by buffer:

Doubling up on Nevada. St Johns game was closer than what the score indicated. Next up after Nevada will be AJ Morant.

A) No it wasn't, score was actually closer than it should have been, ASU controlled that game from tip to buzzer. 

B) The ASU-SJU has ZERO bearing on this one, and it's complete amateur hour to even bring it up as a reason to "double" your "bet"

C) You're an attention wh0ring troll.  BOL in the tournament.  Hope no one takes you too seriously. 
buffer
buffer
My company is offering a free-roll too, but it's only $500 for 1st and $100 for 2nd.  But not bad considering $0 entry and probably only 50-60 entries.  
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