Recent Posts

Thread Author ChOdaZ Post Entries
THEMUGG
THEMUGG

Quote Originally Posted by Ray norScheine:

Far too many moving Utah State into that UNC match-up like the Washington game is in the bag. I think this late season adversity is going to help the Huskies and the 2-3 zone is always in play to trip up teams, especially UNC. I think Washington over UNC is one upset that is on NO ONE'S radar.

i will say on UNC behalf that they play against the cuse zone in conference so they have at least played against it

Showtime313
Showtime313

2-12 3’s, 5-10 FTs, brutal TOs, no rebounding on D, turning off.

Showtime313
Showtime313

Michigan guy jumps onto court inbounding ball but is somehow missed. Could have given them some life going into half. Can’t make this stuff up. Season from hell in full force

Showtime313
Showtime313

1-9 3’s. Phinisee just got swatted. Durham airballs a short jumper.

 

scoreboard error to start game takes crowd out of it....brutal 

Showtime313
Showtime313

Tough watch. Romeo gets called for soft fouls early again and rides bench. Poole gets fouled on perimeter then jacks a deep 3, mcroberts tries to swat it away doesn’t even get above the rim and ball drops through nothing but net

Showtime313
Showtime313

Quote Originally Posted by Bendyr:

Totally agree hall of calls is a great asset to IUBB. However it's like this team just doesnt qualify for that advantage, they are just that bad and uninspiring.  This is a great spot, nationally, for people to see how little heart Romeo has. He'll never live up to his billing, and this team isn't even talented enough to open up driving lanes for the only thing he does well.

It hurts to read that about Romeo but it is the truth. 

 

Quote Originally Posted by NoBelow18:

Indiana has only covered 1of their last 6 games and that was a loss at maryland.  I would take mich or just stay off.

The Maryland game- they blew a DD 1st half lead and an 8 point half time lead

Showtime313
Showtime313

Quote Originally Posted by NoBelow18:

Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:

Quote Originally Posted by Bendyr:

  This, also an IU fan. They are super unbetable right now, definitely fading them here against a much better coached and more talented Michigan team. The line only being at 4 has to be due to playing at assembly. However this team is just so laughably bad. They continue to trot out McRoberts and Durham, neither of which can shoot a lick nor penetrate, other teams know this. Langford has been rendered mostly useless. Green suspended, he could at least pass and shoot a little bit.   No pride, no toughness, no offensive scheme. The defense has lost some luster, nothing to see here with this IU team. A pedestrian effort from the maize and blue covers the measly 4 points today.
IU @ Michigan...Line was -10.....Home court is worth 6-6.5 points...Line opened up -3.5 Michigan.....
Im more familiar predicting profootball lines due to 3pt advantage.  I wasn't sure how many points went to home teams in college basketball.   They aren't going to change a line because of a losing streak but if people are betting just one side then they may.  If enough bet only mich then it will probably move a few points.

Sagarin uses 3.11 points.  But I feel home court is worth much more like 6-6.5 in certain instances.  Example...Penn St. has a abysmal home court, 3 is fair. I went to the PU/IU game last weekend and you cannot convince me that home court is only worth 3, easily 6 if not more.  That place was rocking and super intimidating.  The players were amped and feeding off that home energy.  Plus the refs made some very biased calls in Purdue's favor that game... I put IU in the same territory.  The Hall of Calls gets 6 in the game tonight.

 

Showtime313
Showtime313

The game that opened my eyes was the bludgeoning that Nebraska gave them at home.  They ran a 1-3-1 zone the entire game and IU had no answer.  Then Purdue used the same concepts and took it to the next level where they held Romeo to 4 points by not letting him drive. Also I think its a big negative that michigan is coming off two shaky performances which might light a fire under this team.  I really don't see it turning around without softening the D with floor spacing which is impossible with this team and their lack of shooting. 

 

Prediction: The market will start adjust to IU and their ineptness after they lose to Rutgers Wednesday and then get barbecued in East Lansing the following game.  Then I think their will be serious value on them entering the softer part of their schedule where they actually get to have back to back home games in conference.

 

Was bored at work today and looked at the schedules of all the B1G teams in conference.  Here are a few notes.

-IU will be the only team to play 6 of 8 on the road.

-IU wont play back 2 back home games until Feb 6/9

-Wisconsin wont play back to back road games until Feb 6/9an_light

-IL has played 3 games in a row at home

-Only MSU will go longer without B2B games at home (Feb 17/20) - but hardest stretch is 5 of 8 on road

-IU plays MSU, Mich, PU, and Iowa twice

-Nebraska has the worst athletics Website

-NW and PU have annoying popups you have to click past about football tickets before you can enter

Showtime313
Showtime313

As an IU fan I would love to see this.  IMO teams have figured out how to stop them.  Clog the lane so Romeo can't drive and force him to shoot.  Double Morgan every time and attack him on O.  Romeo has been exposed as a average at best jump shooter and taking away his driving ability makes it tough for him to score.  If you wear out Morgan by making him work hard on both ends, they have zero front court depth.  Also Hoosiers rank 206th nationally in 3 point % and even worse if you just look at conference play.  They have several guys (mcroberts, smith, romeo) who are terrible at 3's.  They don't even guard mcroberts he is so bad.  Also Hoosiers are 309th nationally in FT% which is laughable for a team with this much talent.  Also they are in the middle of a borderline unfair scheduling crunch.  They played @mich, @mary, home Nebraska, @PU, @NW now after this home break vs mich they go @rutgers then @sparty.  Brutal! Losers of 5 straight all in embarrassing fashion.  I hope you hit but this team is truly unbetable right now in my eyes.

 

GL Ill be rooting for you

ChOdaZ
ChOdaZ

will update record tomorrow

 

plays:

nebraska +2 2/1.74

nebraska ML 0.5/0.55

 

ChOdaZ
ChOdaZ

Sac we will just have to lie..... and go into cardiac arrest instead surprised

Anyone else going to be in West Lafayette this weekend braving the snow?

 

Boise St nipped at the buzzer to shatter my ML dreams an_burningbagan_cannon

But as always we trudge on

 

Record:

Sides (14-14-1) -2.49

ML (7-14) -0.41

Total -2.9

 

Plays:

Texas A&M +6.5 --> 2/1.82

Texas A&M ML (+250) --> 0.5/1.25

Pedo St. -1.5 (-115) --> 2/1.74

SMU pk --> 2/1.82

 

If Pedo St. gets smoked again I may institute a new system rule that excludes them from any plays.  Seriously might be the worst home court in all of division 1.

an_tongueout

 

undermysac
undermysac

an_cheers

ChOdaZ
ChOdaZ

Pitt win

 

Record:

Sides (12-12-1) -2.13

ML (6-11) -0.66

Total -2.79

 

Plays:

Georgia +8 (-105) 2/1.91

Georgia ML (+310) 0.5/1.55

Wake F +9 2/1.82

Wake F ML (+350) 0.5/1.75

Georgetown +2 (-115) 2/1.74

Georgetown ML (+115) 0.5/0.58

Boys-in-me St. +8 2/1.82

Boise St. ML (+290) 0.5/1.45

 

thumbs_up

 

 

ChOdaZ
ChOdaZ

System ICE COLD an_nailbiter but that just means we can only heat back up. 

 

Record:

Sides: (11-12-1) -3.95

ML: (5-11) -1.66

Total -5.61 

 

Plays Today:

Pitt +5.5

Pitt ML +200

 

ChOdaZ
ChOdaZ

On mobile will update record and respond tomorrow.

plays

penn st +8 2/1.74

penn st ml 0.5/1.5

ChOdaZ
ChOdaZ

Down and dirty today.  Busy busy but here are record and plays.  Prob won't be able to check back and defend these horrible system bets today cool

 

Record:

Sides (9-7-1) +2.4

ML (5-6) +0.84

Total +3.24

 

Plays

Clemson +6 2/1.82

Clemson ML (+220) 0.5/1.1

FSU +7.5 (-105) 2/1.91

FSU ML (+270) 0.5/1.4

Texas -2 (-105) 2/1.91

Iowa -2 (-115) 2/1.74

Baylor +3 2/1.82

Baylor ML (+140) 0.5/0.7

Florida +2.5 2/1.82

Florida ML (+120) 0.5/0.6

ChOdaZ
ChOdaZ

Quote Originally Posted by D-Town:

In the last 1/2 hour Pinnacle and Bookmaker have dropped the line to + 8 1/2.

 

Pregame claims 87% of cash and 90% of tickets on Michigan yet line droppingan_speechless

ChOdaZ
ChOdaZ

IL is super athletic and will be able to match Michigan's team speed.  My biggest concern is how bad they have played in the 2H. We will see.  Your line move comment makes me like this bet even more.

ChOdaZ
ChOdaZ

System heating up. 7-2 last night. Tech almost stole one there but came up short.  Lets keep it rolling

 

Record:

All plays are now kept in a spreadsheet so it will be accurate from now on.  Found some errors but should be all fixed now. Again willing to share the spreadsheet (not sure best way to do so, it is in excel) if anyone is interested. 

Sides (9-6-1) +4.4

ML (5-5) +1.34

Total +5.74

 

Plays:

Another tough bet and as sac previewed in last post....I hate the Illini.  Also hate Champaign.  Was forced to work there for a few weeks and can't say I enjoyed it except for the Silver Bullet.  Also I could be wrong but I think the Brad Underwood experiment is going to end badly. So with that said...

 

Illinois +9.5 (-115) 2/1.74

Illinois ML (+350) 0.5/1.75

 

What's up with the books jamming me with -115 vig on every bet confused  They are on to my betting tendencies.  Time to re-up on BOL.

 

an_speak

ChOdaZ
ChOdaZ

@BSpalding... No doubt appreciate it.  That is the other thing. These power conferences are all stacked with solid talent. Also can't forget the biased refs who favor the home team.

Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View