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bookieassassin
bookieassassin
College Football / WEEK 4 / View Post

Irish / BA thanks for you insight on ND this week, much appreciated.  Will tread lightly if I decide to fire an_cheers

bookieassassin
bookieassassin
College Football / WEEK 4 / View Post

Damn BA wish I could get some of that Irish -6.  Up to 7 or 7.5 everywhere I lookan_violin.  I have heard every "wiseguy" on the radio and podcasts say they love Wake this week.  So much so I think it is my fake sharp play of the week.  Every week I feel there is one play that gets touted up so hard it burns.  Do you think we see this line dip back below 7?  I doubt it but can't be harm in waiting???  So what if it hits 8.

 

I heard someone say that their sources are telling them that ND might make a QB change this week from Wimbush to Book.  Wonder how this will affect the line once announced? If there is one thing I trust Kelly on it's his ability to have his QBs ready to go (no matter how limited they have been at this position during his tenure). Also I think the Irish can only improve on O.  As we all know they are struggling to get things going after losing 2 top10 NFL picks on the O-Line.  Maybe this is a breakthrough week.  I don't like the fact that Tree is on deck but that is the biggest negative I see.  

 

Good stuff as always...the link to the schedule logs is gold.  Already printed them out.

an_worship

UNIMAN
UNIMAN

Had to check out your thread on RX after reading BA's thread this morning.  Damn that shit got toxic fast an_eek2.  They make you out to be the bad guy when they lobbed the first grenade an_bomb

undermysac
undermysac
Sac I thought you took a more forceful approach to your love interests?
ChOdaZ
ChOdaZ

That is interesting indeed.  I dont have that one listed yet on my offshore.  Could probably Manufacture that one with just Phil and Bubba to win.  Id love to see Mick wear the Jacket again...he could if his short putting is on point.

 

Looking a Finau harder off that advice.  He has been very Pedistrian off the tee this season ranking #200 at 52.3%  He is #1 in driving distance at 321.1 yds so if he can stay out of the forest then his rank of #20 in GIR could be a huge edge.  His strokes gained putting ranks #133 at -0.115, sand saves are also questionable.  He will need to putt better than that for me to hit my bet.  Good thing I can sleep on this one before I pull the trigger.  Also one of his special interests is fire knife dancing surprised

 

Bubba gets paired with Stenson and Day.  That should be a dynamite group to watch.  They tee off at 11:04 Thursday and are the second to last group Friday FWIW.  None of the heavy hitters have early tee times either day.  No shock there...gotta get those ratings.

ChOdaZ
ChOdaZ

Tiger had two eagles on the back 9 today of his practice round, holes 13 & 15.  Going to hit this now before the price changes

2 Units to Win 2.5 Units

an_cheers

alangrrbs
alangrrbs
Pro Golf / Masters Picks / View Post

Good Luck.  I will definitly check back and see your other plays.  I like Matsuyama as well.  The matchup vs Garcia caught my eye first but I might have to fade Stenson against him as well.

peace_5

ChOdaZ
ChOdaZ

Here are the bets I am considering.  Thoughts appreciated. Probably pull the trigger on these tomorrow morning when I do my morning waste time at my cpu while drinking my coffee and pretending to work routine.  Thursday and Friday will consist of streaming Masters coverage live.  Hopefully they will have good featured groups otherwise I will just watch Amen Corner live.

 

Bubba +1600 to Win

Bubba +110 top lefty

Bubba +400 top former winner

Obviously I am high on Bubba coming into this week.  History shows that when he is playing well leading up to the Masters he can win.  I threw in top lefty because he basically has to finish ahead of Phil and there is more value in this bet than in the tourney matchup which is Bubba -110.  The list of former winners is not all that impressive minus Spieth so I think its worth a shot.

 

Matsuyama Even as Top Asian

Matsuyama +110 tourney matchup over Garcia

As mentioned in a previous thread. Matsuyama should be good to go off his wrist surgery and has played here well the last few years.  Im down on Sergio this year and don't think he will be able to make enough putts to finish high. I liked the odds on top asian.  Just hope I don't get burned as there are a couple Im not sure about.  Might be one I reconsider.

 

Finau +400 Top Debutant

Just a gut feeling that hes sitting on a top 10-20 finish and that should be enough to claim this crown.

 

Langer +225 Top Senior

He continues to play well on the senior tour.  I love the way he carries himself and grinds.  Also think he has the putting stroke to be competative.  Not buying any Couples magic this year.  Cant trust his back or his short game at this point.  

 

Cut over 149 +125

Will need to check the interviews from players after todays practice rounds to confirm this bet but I have heard things about how long the course is playing.  Also we are due for a masters that just is down right brutal and a couple under par can take home the jacket.  

 

Tiger records and Eagle +125

No opinion on Tiger this week.  No way I bet him to do anything....and no way I pay to see him beat me.  However I think he will show at minimum some signs of the old cat and give us a thrill or two including an eagle or two.

 

Cant wait for Thursday an_bounce

dino_2000_22
dino_2000_22

I agree with doing nothing.... if you must hedge I agree with In2it's approach.  Also appreciate your honesty with betting ammounts so many people claiming to have inflated bankrolls its rediculoussleep2

 

Good Luckan_cheers

lmb4321
lmb4321

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

With the style of ball that Loyola and Mich play with, I see a low scoring war where free throws might decide the winner.*Pop quiz*When was the last time a MVC team met a Big10 team in the final 4?Answer....IU vs Indiana St, Larry Bird vs Irving Johnson

Larry Bird was 1979 and Indiana St beat DePaul to reach the title game where they LOST to B1G team Michigan St.  Still waiting for correct answer which I do not have.....

an_popcorn

 

lmb4321
lmb4321

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

With the style of ball that Loyola and Mich play with, I see a low scoring war where free throws might decide the winner.*Pop quiz*When was the last time a MVC team met a Big10 team in the final 4?Answer....IU vs Indiana St, Larry Bird vs Irving Johnson

Well if it comes down to FTs that does not bode well for michigan.  

Michigan team FT% = 321st in D1 @ 66.2%

Loyola team FT% = 141st in D1 @ 72.2%

also michigan starting PG shoot 52% an_speechless

 

Michigan is capable of playing a fast paced up and down game as well as a grind it out half court game.  Coaches for both teams are excellent so not much there advantage wise.  I expect a close game.

F5n
F5n

Quote Originally Posted by EastsideBangers:

West Virginia might have more of a chance had Jay Wright not had 5 days to implement a game plan against the  Helter skelter style that Bob Huggins has his Mountaineers play at Against the press, when you break the first layer, the back wings will be wide open for threes.West Virginia’s defensive size gets  negated when Nova spreads you out and forces your bigs to guard Nova big Spellman out at the three point lineYou can’t protect the rim when you play against a team where everyone on the floor can shoot the three with success Villanova is a team loaded with ball handlers, so the press won’t be as effective Good Luck backing West Virginia

THIS ^  If West Vag is going to win they will need to hit shots.  I see them time and time struggle to hit shots. West Vag doesnt play as well from behind (who does) but i feel like they don't have the quick spark O to get back into it, especially if Nova gets hot for a few minutes and gets a 10 point lead.

The press schemes they run are truley unique and are very difficult to simulate and prepare for. So they have that going for them.  I just fear the inevitable big run by Nova will put the game away (see start of 2nd half by Nova last game).  

niceguy778
niceguy778
Don't worry about taking these "square" plays they absolutely hit. I lean both of these for sure. KY is dripping with talent and are starting to put it together. Kansas is not going to win it all but I don't think the game they lose is here. Think it's tight but the end game has a high probability to hit even if it's is. Bet these confidently... I prob will as well.
WilliamMunny
WilliamMunny

i already bet Gonzaga -5.5 and Cuse +11.5 thinking the lines will move against me.  I havent been impressed with Fl St in this tournament especially against Xavier.  Xavier in my opinion was not 1 seed caliber and it took a sloppy finish to get FL St the win late when they trailed by 10 second half.  Gonzaga in my opinion was just taking care of business.  Sure they had a squeaker vs UNCG but i think they can go to another level.  They are my favorite to make the final 4 from this region.  Cuse is playing great suffocating D and should be catching DD to anyone.  I know Duke handled them in conference play but I think it works in Cuse favor being they have played them twicw and understand what they want to do.  Cuse always seems to play their best late in the season.  I still think they lose but can comfortably keep it inside the number.  Duke is my favorite for the final 4 here. 

undermysac
undermysac

Like how your vegas bets escalated from 1 unit plays to 6 units and 12 units.  must of had a hell of a run at blackjack table

ckattar8
ckattar8

Yes they can but i dont like either teams matchup with KY where the talent gap will be immense.  KY has been playing phenomenal since the conference tourney and feel like this is setting up for them to make the final 4.  KY is so long its scary, they will have a huge edge down low.  Coach Cal always seems to push the right buttons and get his young teams to gel late in the season.  It pains me to say it but I think Cinderella stops there.

justlol
justlol
Problem is they ran the offense through him and played inside out. It changes what they did all season. I feel like once the B1G started to figure out Haas is when Purdue started to lose some games and have trouble with teams. I think this game is going to be tight the whole way. These teams played in Indy on neutral in non conference and Purdue won handily vs a ranked bulldog team.  The rally around your injured player is what's keeping me off a Butler play. Think it's tight and can go either way late. BOL
undermysac
undermysac

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Strip. There's a group of us, bachelor party on Saturday.  And it's St. Patty's...I don't party like I used to, so a little apprehensive. If I die, hopefully it will be in a strippers arms.

Probably a coke fueled heart attack that manifests after a buzzer beater destroys a huge ML parlay

lie.........

DoubleUp4Life
DoubleUp4Life

Great stuff as always on NCAAF always check out your thread...

I have thoughts on Purdue.  While they have the talent to win it all I think they have issues that a good coach and disciplined team can exploit.  Its all about Haas.....As great as Haas is you can exploit him on defense.  Teams that are good at pick and roll will feast on him.  I watched the patient B1G teams late in the season pick on him here and with sucess. He is also slow in help defense and when he doubles teams have been able to drop a bounce pass to the open guy he left.  I think this is why Purdue seemed to taper off late in the season from an elite team to a good team.  The other concern was in their loss at home to Ohio St they used a smaller more athletic guy on Haas and he had trouble with his quickness.  As Haas goes Purdue goes.

North Carolina and Duke both have easy draws (shocker) IMO.  I wouldnt be suprised if one or both are in the final 4.  Just gotta get past the pesky B1G 3 seeds.  I think big part of your success comes down to those sweet 16 games UNC/Mich and Duke/MichSt.

 

Omerta
Omerta
Can argue both sides. Michigan was hot but at the same time they get to rest and get time to tweak things like add inbounds plays or new set plays. I trust the Michigan coach to keep these guys sharp. Personally I give it a slight bump for benefiting them.