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Thread Author thewhitesmith Post Entries
thewhitesmith
thewhitesmith

Unfortunate outcome, but a great run nonetheless!

thewhitesmith
thewhitesmith

Pick is in Duke -4 vs UNC in the ACC Tourney...

tied at the half, good luck clover

smoothd20
smoothd20

Va Tech/Miami over 137.5 today.

 

Both of their previous games have gone well over that number. they combine to make on average about 18 3's a game (I'm looking for ~15/game minimum on average combined), Va Tech is pretty heavily favored, and most money is on Va Tech covering the ~-8, so it's a little beyond the range i would normally like, but if the game ends near that number i can see Miami forcing the issue and/or fouling earlier. Va Tech is pretty good from the line as well in those circumstances.

thewhitesmith
thewhitesmith

with mostly NCAA and a few NHL thrown in there, user patric is one win away from some cash.

Good luck clover an_cheers

smoothd20
smoothd20

Struggling to keep up with my updates and research... much easier without responsibility. this is the time of year where teams will start to get desperate and do things a little crazy.

mentioned before i like looking for overs, but the basic scenario i'd ideally find is a game that i'm expecting to be a 4-8 point outcome. the main factors i look for are my perceived tempo (possessions per game), 3-point attempts and at least some level of respectability in knocking them down, and at least free-throw shooting on the team I expect to be in front.

additional factors are tempo numbers on the team i expect to be in front (I want them to keep pace up when they get a 6-point lead), individual guard play where someone can go off for big games (hot hand tends to shoot a little quicker), and peripheral numbers that i can use to logically explain why a line is lower than i would expect (i.e. they just played a run of teams that prefer low-scoring games and recent biases are skewed to fewer points).

if i get the time, i'll be posting the thoughts. if not, good luck all an_cheers

gmoneygrip
gmoneygrip

Quote Originally Posted by FrankieFives:

Quote Originally Posted by FrankieFives:

Quote Originally Posted by thewhitesmith:

Tuppy won the big prize and has repeatedly said he got paid. They changed the streak to 25 after he won. Since then, nobody has hit 25 (All-Stars page), so nobody has hit the big prize. I can personally verify that they do pay out real money and in a timely fashion.
Upon going to all-stars page is shows jcoby, claudio, and mc2010 all hitting 21 or more...I thought only brackson did it other than tuppy hitting 21?
  Oh wait, I wonder if there was not a 25k prize back then for 21 wins when they moved it to 25? If they didn't move it to 25 then lots of people would of hit it by now.

 

After Tuppy hit, they moved it up to 25 for the $100K. People have won the $25K since, but I was not around when Tuppy hit and I can't remember if there was a $25K or not from previous discussion (also too lazy to try to look it up).

thewhitesmith
thewhitesmith

A great run regardless. Seemed to follow recent logic of smaller favorites, but OKC -4.5 at New Orleans went down and with that the streak.

 

Well done hurricanegroovy and hopefully you ge back up there soon.

 

an_cheers

thewhitesmith
thewhitesmith

With Indiana covering, hurricanegoovy is within 1 win of $1,000.  picks have been all NBA, so let's see if that run continues to some cash. an_cheersmoneybag

smoothd20
smoothd20

taking byu/zaga over tonight. no incredibly strong lean but it's last day of the month and i just kinda want to watch the alst game of the night and root for points

GoZags03
GoZags03

correct.

smoothd20
smoothd20

Nobody has hit the 25, but someone did win $100,000 before they made it 25 in a row (Tuppy). This game will hook you, I took several years off and am just getting back into it again... just a taste and it hooks ya.

smoothd20
smoothd20

Taking Marquette/Butler over today. nothing too indepth, just a solid history of overs, decent recent results and home/road splits.

smoothd20
smoothd20

Liking Louisville/Pitt over today. I went into the first few things I look for in my last post. I like initial range of numbers PF/PA when compared to the spread.

In this case, the deciding factor was for me looking at the recent games where Louisville was about a 10-point favorite and Pitt was about a 10-point dog, and that Louisville is averaging 84/game in league play, with the lowest being 79. I feel confident they'll be able to put up enough that I hopefully won't need too much out of Pitt, even if Louisville covers.

smoothd20
smoothd20

Goin VCU/URI over today. Biggest things indicators for me in a game in general is the # of possessions I'm expecting vs the total on the game (with a bunch of other factors). One thing I looked at here were the recent games that have gone under and why, in most cases it wasn't because of fewer possessions, it was because of poor FG%.

Another is that PF is combined to about 140, PA combines to about 129, and both teams PF+PA is over the line at 131.5 from when I locked the pick in. If both sides show an ability to score well above the line, and the PA is at or just below the line, that's kinda the first indicator for a game I want to look into more.

I took it at 131.5 and the line is up to 137 now though, which would completely change how I looked at it and I would probably skip at where it's at...

hlmencken
hlmencken

They will remove picks that too many people select the same side on. In some cases this is temporary, in others it opens again later on, in others still it will open once the line moves...

gmoneygrip
gmoneygrip

Tuppy won the big prize and has repeatedly said he got paid. They changed the streak to 25 after he won.

Since then, nobody has hit 25 (All-Stars page), so nobody has hit the big prize.

I can personally verify that they do pay out real money and in a timely fashion.

smoothd20
smoothd20

Took a few years off, just getting back into NCAA after focusing on EPL for a bit... great to see this is still going strong.

looking for spots for NCAA overs this time of year, ideally later in conference play in and in conference tourneys.

 

also, GL Caligula

thewhitesmith
thewhitesmith
actually just getting started tracking, wanted to wait until start of conference tourneys and have been held up on putting the time i wanted in until now.

I love seeking out overs so that'll be the majority of my plays, with one play of the day.

today's picks

tcu/ texas over 116 *POD* 2.2 to win 2
villanova/ st john's over 125.5 1.1 to win 1
rice/ houston over 143 1.1 to win 1
alabama a&m -15.5 vs grambling 1.1 to win 1
miami (OH) -2 vs eastern michigan 1.1 to win 1
washington -2 vs washington state 1.1 to win 1

WinBig555
WinBig555
second guessing after the fact in a game that took overtime to go over (was at 110 at the end of regulation)?

great run spandum. sometimes the cards just fall the wrong way, it was a very solid pick
RA1214
RA1214
If you see that, it doesn't mean you can't pick that ever. If you try again later you will likely be able to get through (although often at a different number)
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