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SukMyVickNoRomo
SukMyVickNoRomo
Congrats man!
bigpappap
bigpappap
I had this same situation last year, with 2 Monday Night games. You can put an amount on the other 3 possible outcomes (I put $1K). The other thing you could do is run a 2 team teaser and try to middle.
SukMyVickNoRomo
SukMyVickNoRomo

Pkleves,

Have more faith in your defense (haha!).  GB was ranked 13th to 15th in total defense last season (depending on what you read) and were in the top ten in a couple major categories (3rd down defense is very important).  Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think you’re looking at a defense like the Buffalo Bills or Seattle Seahawks, but as said, they have key pieces to field a solid defense.   They do have some very good players that can get to the quarterback (obviously a key ingredient) and have enough depth on the back-end to make plays.  I think Clinton-Dix will take the next step personally (I understand he has to tackle better – but that will come with time).  I also think Hyde is key to what they want to do, so he has to stay healthy.  You also have to remember, when you have Aaron Rodgers and that offense, the defense doesn’t necessarily have to take as many chances as other teams.. .. make teams drive the field with consistency (and just don’t give up the big play).    

SukMyVickNoRomo
SukMyVickNoRomo

First.  Saying that Rodgers has “struggled” v Vic Fangio is an inaccurate statement.  Rodgers faced Fangio 4 times when Fangio was the DC for San Francisco.  In those four games Rodgers had a 64.4% completion percentage, averaged 284 yards passing, while having an 8/3 TD/INT Ratio.  And you must factor in that this was going up against a San Francisco defense that was the best in the NFL at the time. 

Second.  Saying that GBs defense is “garbage” this year is also inaccurate.  At this point, all we have to gauge is their preseason, and the Packers never fielded the defense that will be starting this coming Sunday.  Not mentioning the precautionary steps taken with Matthews, the Packers experimented with many different combinations in their back-end due to the loss of Sam Shields.  Therefore, they had a couple different rookies playing the corner and nickel spots to determine what combination would look best.  Now.  I’m not saying that the Packers defense is top 5 (but probably top 10).  They still have really good players at all three levels, and have two things that you need in order to field a good defense; a solid corner and pass rusher(s).  And it doesn’t hurt that BJ Raji is back in the fold, slimmed down and ready to go.

Third.  Saying that the Packers where 3-3 on the road last year doesn’t apply to this game.  Green Bay has OWNED Chicago in Chicago.  Since Cutlers arrival in Chicago, the Packers have played the Bears 12 times (6 in Chicago). and are 11-1.  Furthermore, road games can’t be calculated as just numbers.  You have to look at who they played as well.  For instance, take the Saints game for example.  The Packers lost to the Saints last season on the road.  But it was a Sunday night game with New Orleans needing a win badly due to their poor start.  Not many teams can just stroll into a national televised night game, in that atmosphere against Drew Brees, and come out with a win.  Jay Culter is no Drew Brees.  The Packers also lost to the Seahawks on the road last season.  And, I don’t think I have to go into grave detail on how hard it is to play in that Stadium, especially the first game of the season when Seattle was raising the Super Bowl Banner.  So basically, stating that Green Bay was “such and such” on the road last season can be mis-leading.  It’s not like they went on the road and played Jacksonville, Oakland and the Browns.  You have to take into consideration the road losses and the situation behind those losses.

Fourth.  Mike McCarthy has stated multiple times this fall camp that Green Bay needs to get off to a fast start (due to their recent struggles the last 3 years at the beginning of the season)..  ..There is reason for this.  Green Bay understands that to get back to the Super Bowl the playoffs need to go through Lambeau (going back to Seattle in order to make the Super Bowl is not the ideal situation).  Thus, starting off the season on a high note with a win vs Chicago is the first step.  Now, does equate to a “cover” (?) well, no.  But, it does lead to a more focused team, understanding the gravity of the game, even though it may only be the first game. 

Lastly.  Chicago just doesn’t match up well with Green Bay.  Period.  Their defense is still too porous against Rodgers and because of that they have to rely on Jay Cutler to match scores.   This is where the Bears get in trouble.  All the news coming out of the Bears camp is that Adam Gase has installed a more “ball control” offense, with Cutler hitting his check-downs more and taking less chances with the football; stressing “No Turnovers!”  That’s great.  The problem is, what happens when you’re down 10 to 14 points?  The pressure will be put back on Jay Cutler, where he hasn’t exactly been stellar.  Sure, the Bears can run Forte and try to keep Rodgers off the field, and that could work.. ..for awhile.  But at some point, Rodgers is going to get his and Chicago will need to rely on Culter to make plays, something he has been incapable of doing time and time again.

In the end, this game isn’t about home underdogs, road favorites or even Jordy Nelson’s injury.  It comes down to the match up.  And the matchup is awful for Chicago (which the trends obviously point out).  Last season, the Packers outscored the Bears 93-31 in both contests.  That is a 62 point difference.  Now all of a sudden in one year with a new coach, brand new system on both sides of the football, an influx of new players learning those systems, the loss of experienced leaders and the same quarterback who had a 75.5 QBR with 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in the two meetings last season; we are supposed to believe that Chicago has made up a 62 point difference?  I guess that is for the gamblers to decide, but I know one thing… ..  If you  sort through all the trash, the trends point to Green Bay.  

MikeMed
MikeMed
This was the first game I bet as soon as CFB lines were released; got'em at -13.5. Good write up except UK actually returns most of their defense. That said, they did lose their 2 most productive players on that side of the ball. Nonetheless, they are a MUCH deeper team this year, especially in the secondary. UK is dying for a bowl birth (and know they were a couple plays away from getting there last season - see Florida game). I would be shocked if they dont come out guns a-blazin & win this game by 17+. I got $550 to win $500.

Solid bet. Good luck!
MikeMed
MikeMed
I bet this game @ -14.5 as soon as it opened. My first bet of the cfb season. Good write up, except; Kentucky technically returns almost all of their defense.. .. They did, however, lose 2 of their most productive players. That said, this team is without question MUCH deeper, especially in the secondary. AJ Stamps is a name to remember (Safety). I would be absolutely shocked if they dont win by a minimum of 17. UK wants a bowl bid BADLY this year, and winning these types of games is the way to start.
IgetMoney101
IgetMoney101
Advice (take it or leave it)
Never bet on teams when the locker room is a mess.  Those players in that locker room don't respect RGIII right now and there is a lot of tension. Just read what the Olineman and Moss said.  Thats not a good thing.  

Not to mention, your betting against one of the best teams/coaches ATS spread coming off a loss.  

Washingtons season has been a disaster.  A complete failure on all levels.  Now you are expecting them to all of a sudden become resurgent against one of the best defenses they will face all year?

No Way. 

bense197969
bense197969
Bense.
Thanks for the info on Sparty!  As for next 11/2, I will cover my eyes and watch. Michigan had 27 yards on 27 carries vs Penn State.  No telling what MSU is going to do to that horrid offensive line Michigan throws out there.  Garnder is going to be running around like a deer all game; throwing into coverage and trying to make plays that aren't there.

As Michigan/MSU fans, we all know the complete disdain these two programs have for each other, and MSU at home?  They will play their best football of the year.  I've been a Michigan fan all my life, and I will tell ya, it's gonna be hard to watch that Michigan team roll into Lansing and take an a$$ whiping.  I don't see how they consistenly move the ball on MSU.    
stuff
stuff
Hard to imagine the classic "let-down" spot for Mizzu when its a night game & homecoming nonetheless.  Let-down games are more like when you win a big game and then play Idaho the next week.  Sure SCarolina will be motivated, but they weren't motivated vs Tennessee when they knew the SEC East was up for grabs watching Georgia get beat the week prior to Mizzu?

Sometimes you can read too much into "this team got beat so their pissed" & "this team will have a let-down b/c they won"  Oklahoma wasn't pissed about getting completely dominated by Texas on National Television?  How did that work out?  Kansas steamed rolled that team.  I don't care what the box score reads, I watched that game, and Kansas played better and should have won.  

The fact of the matter is; Mauk thru for 350 yards and Mizzu rushed for 200 yards.  Yes, that is correct.  500 yards of total offense against a very talented Florida defense, so don't tell me they aren't legit on offense.  Mauk IS very good and this offense IS very talented.  On the other hand, USC is prone to give up big plays defensively.. Sure, Clowney is going to get his 1 ESPN clip for the game, but that is where it stops in my opinion.  And as for the other side of the ball, whether it be Shaw or Thompson, both are pretty much the same guy; execpt Shaw has the feet.  However, both struggle at times to throw the ball on time and read the coverage fast enough.  Don't get me wrong, USC is going to make plays, but will it be enough, because I think Mizzu will move the ball very well.

Both teams will be motivated.  Both will be locked-in.  And both are going to play well.  This game comes down to match-ups and I think Mizzu matches up GREAT with USC.

If you're telling me that I get the home team @ -2.5, at night, playing with GREAT confidence and a very talented QB that the team has rallied behind; then I will take my chances with the home team any day.


chad77
chad77
Chad77.

You "could be" on the correct side.  But let me tell you, this "back up" QB for Mizzu isn't just a normal back up.  The kid is legit and will score on Florida.  Some on the team thought he deserved the job over Franklin..  Will he make some mistakes vs that defense?  Probably.  But I will say this; he is going to make some great plays also.  He isn't a typical back-up.  And he is damn good.  This offense won't miss one beat with him under center (and may look better). 

I have no dog in this fight, and I'm not betting the game.  I'm just telling you.. after this game, don't be shocked if you are sitting there saying.. "damn, this back up can play".


thorpe
thorpe
Thorpe.

The emotional state of the team is where I think the value lies.  Had Miss St beat LSU I would've even consider the BG game.  However, LSU steam rolled Miss St, so it's not as if they have they are still shotngunning beers at the local Frat house off a big win.  

Miss St lost to Auburn & had LSU on deck and wiped the floor with Troy.  Now, they lose to LSU, play BG and have Kentucky on deck.  
Again, when a team suffers a deflating loss, I think the players & staff know its time "to get back to work" instead of basking in the glory of a huge win.  

I think Miss St is too powerful on both sides of the ball for BG to walk in to Starkville, at night, and keep this game close.  Miss St needs a win at home after last week.  I'm against the MAC school in this one. 
DoubleUp4Life
DoubleUp4Life
Double.

Love UM & LSU.  Can't back you on Miami.  Your talking about the two worst teams in the NCAA.  That said, 1 of them lost their coach and has had an easier schedule.  UMass hasn't won a home game yet in the MAC and now they get the chance to get their home fans a win.  They have played a much tougher schedule, so the game should slow way down for them.

If it comes to the two worst teams, I gotta back the home team pumped to finally get a win in a game they really believe the can win vs a team who lost their coach and replaced him with a guy with zero head coaching experience...
Quantum_Leap
Quantum_Leap
Losing a starting QB in a triple option attack is like cutting the head off a snake; the body will still move, but nothing is attached.

You watched terrible football from Navy because Reynolds is what makes that team go.  They sure didn't look bad when they beat IU in Bloomington or when the covered the spread vs one of their main rivals last week.  

Navy is 2-1 ATS..  it's not a ironical that the one game they lost is because Reynolds got a concussion.   
PaulieChicago
PaulieChicago
Northwestern almost beat OSU b/ecause; #1 Ohio State has ALWAYS struggled in Evanston.  #2 It was a home night game for NU and it was without question one of their biggest games in the past decade.  This was going to be the "statement game" for NU.  The game that people started saying..  "This team is legit".  Ohio State just came off a HUGE in conference game vs Wisky and had to go on the road, at night, against a team that was chomping at the bit to stake their claim v the Nations best..  Oh, and game day was there.... 

Carlos Hyde was getting 5 yards just by looking at the grass...  Wisconsin is going to run the ball so much at NU that by the end of the game, their defense (or what is left of it) won't want to take the field. 

After that emotionally charged game last week v OSU, where the team put every once of energy into that game.. once Wisky runs the ball right down their throats the first two drives.. that team will just be too spent to doing anthing else.

I see a major blowout coming.
LeRinkRat
LeRinkRat
By the way.  Central Florida beat Akron 38-7 (and we know how Michigan played vs Akron) and almost beat South Carolina.  UCF isn't a bad team AT ALL.  So PSU losing to them isn't such a bad thing.  

I don't like the game either way... Personally I wouldn't touch this game... but the line is correct.

LeRinkRat
LeRinkRat
This line is exactly where it should be.  Michigan has no offensive line, cant run the football and Gardner has been terribly inaccurate the last 3 games.  That Minnesota game wasn't what the score indicated, and was close into the 4th quarter.

Gardner continues to make bad reads, bad throws, and has no time to throw because their O-line is too young.  

Their defense has given up big yards on the run up the middle and their back-end is soft.  They consistently give up 5 to 10 yard cusions b/c Mattison doesn't trust them in a hard man-to-man bump and run.

It wouldn't shock me what so ever if PSU wins the game outright.  The will be able to run the ball on Michigan and will be able to use the short pass game to set up 3rd and short situations.

On the flip side, I don't think Michigan will be able to establish the run whatsoever, and that will force Gardner to run around wild like he has been for the past 3 games... in which.. he keeps making mistakes.

If you think about it... Michigan should have two losses; UConn and Akron.  Yes.  Read that again.. UConn and Akron.
HurricaneHauk90
HurricaneHauk90
Quote Originally Posted by PradaG5:

The public is only 80%  on the miami.....typical square bet

I can't stand that saying.  There is no such thing as a square bet. The favorite covers just as much as a dog, and lower/Mid-level games cover just as much as high profile games.  

For every loser you show me in a "square" bet, I will show you a loser in a "sharp" bet.  Was Alabama a square bet last week?  Was Clemson?  NC State?  What about Stanford, ASU or Washington? 

If you have done the research and you like the line, you bet the game; regardless of what anybody else thinks.  

Period.
RoonRoon
RoonRoon
I love the "this is 2013 brother" comment, and the next sentence says "look @ OK ST a few years ago."

ByrdMane612
ByrdMane612
Only 1 Book here in Las Vegas has the line posted, and that is LVH.  A&M is -15.


Boom_Boom
Boom_Boom
Regarding #3.

I will tell you what Michigan was doing; being stubborn.  Al Borges in content on finding a running game.  He insists on playing smashmouth football.  He (& Brady) want to "establish" a run game.  They took this game as a moment to try and do that.  Go back and watch the ND game, not many times did Michigan just line up and try & pound the rock into an 8 man box.  Instead, they had Gardner in the gun where he can be most effective.  
Now go back and watch the Akron game.  Time and time again they tried to run at an 8 man box.  And why not?  It's Arkon.  They tried to prove a point that they were going to "establish" the run. And time and time again they got the crap knocked out of them at the LOS.  This put Gardner in a TON of 2 & 11 & 3 & 12.  

If you go back and look at the play by play of this game you see A TON of Toussaint rush middle -1.  Toussaint rush middle -2 yards.  Toussaint rush middle 1 yard.  In almost every single one of Michigan drives they had at least 1 2nd & 11 or 3rd & 10 (or more!)  I don't care who you are playing, if you consistently put your quarterback in those situations all game long, its going to be tough.  The funny thing is; when Michigan REALLY needed to get going, they put Gardner in the gun and let his athletic ability take over running the read option (going back to DRob days).  They scored in about 3 to 4 plays both drives.

Until Borges can figure out that he has a poor mans Vince Young under center (and not Matt Ryan) they are going to look like this every single week.  In my opinion, Michigan deserved to lose that game, not only because the players took Akron lightly, but because the staff is stubborn and was trying to prove a point.  Borges doesn't have the Oline to just line up and play the way he wants to.    

Borges better start using his QB correctly (more of how he did in the ND game) or Michigan is going to lose a couple games they probably shouldn't.  Gardner can be dangerous running that read option play but Borges refuses to run that style offense.  He wants a smashmouth offense predicated on a one horse back carrying the load, and then throwing play action off of it. 

I like your picks Boom, especially Duke.  Their new QB was 3-14 on 3rd down conversions last week vs GTech.  I think the Savage kid is knocking of his rust & with Pitts defense, they should get that game.  

I also like Ark St -4 (although many people seem to be on them, which is kinda scary) but I started researching this game when the line came out (orginally at -6.5).  I couldn't believe it was dropping because I like Ark a lot.  After a closer look, one glaring stat stands out;  Ark State ranks 17th in the country in 3rd down conversions. Memphis defense ranked 115th on 3rd Down (and Ark has had the tougher schedule). With a spread offense on the field vs a defense who can’t get off the field?  I'm still not sure why the line dropped, but I will take my chances with Ark St.

Lastly, UTSA -1.  
This Soza kid is ranked 20th in the country in passing (and this after playing OKST & Arizona).  Showers from UTEP is ranked 99th.  Ironically, this early in the season they have one common opponent; New Mexico.  Soza stats v NM: 21-34 237 yards 2 TDs and no picks.  They beat New Mexico 21-13 (on the road).  Showers v NM was 15/20 for 100 yards in a overtime loss (at home).  UTSA has 9 kids back on defense and 9 kids back on offense and have played back to back legit FBS schools, going against UTEP who has now played New Mexico and New Mexico St.  One would “assume” that the team speed UTSA is about to face is going to be much lower, and as a result, the game should slow WAY down for them.  I really like this play.  If UTSA can go on the road and beat New Mexico by 8, then can surely beat UTEP by 1. 

Good Luck Boom!
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