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Tone10
Tone10

Off BetOnline openers...

Colorado Rockies +130

Arizona Diamondbacks -105

Oakland Athletics -130

Tone10
Tone10

Royals (E. Santana) @ White Sox (J. Peavy) -150

Rangers (A. Ogando) -185 @ Astros (P. Humber)

Tigers (A. Sanchez) -150 @ Twins (K. Correia)

Red Sox (C. Buchholz) @ Yankees (H. Kuroda) -105

Cubs (E. Jackson) @ Pirates (W. Rodriguez) -125

Marlins (K. Slowey) @ Nationals (G. Gonzalez) -280

Indians (U. Jimenez) @ Blue Jays (B. Morrow) -175

Angels (C. Wilson) @ Reds (M. Latos) -120

Orioles (W. Chen) @ Rays (J. Hellickson) -130

Phillies (R. Halladay) @ Braves (P. Maholm) -105

Padres (C. Richard) @ Mets (M. Harvey) -140

Rockies (J. Nicasio) @ Brewers (Y. Peralta) -120

Cardinals (L. Lynn) @ Diamondbacks (B. McCarthy) -125

Mariners (J. Saunders) @ Athletics (T. Milone) -150

Giants (T. Lincecum) @ Dodgers (J. Beckett) -125

Tone10
Tone10

Again use caution as in the first couple weeks it's really tough to project lines.

No projected line on SFO/LAD... no data on Dodgers start Hyun-Jin Ryu.

Orioles (J. Hammel) @ Rays (D. Price) -180

Indians (J. Masterson) @ Blue Jays (R. Dickey) -165

Rockies (J. De La Rosa) @ Brewers (M. Estrada) -130

Rangers (Y. Darvish) -185 @ Astros (L Harrell)

Cardinals (J. Garcia) @ Diamondbacks (T. Cahill) -115

Mariners (H. Iwakuma) @ Athletics (J. Parker) -140

Tone10
Tone10

Thanks guys... unfortunately looks like I'm going to be a bit busier this year with a new job I took.

I'll do my best to keep up with the daily line projections and posting my picks... will try to answer any questions you all may have but can't make any promises.

Hope everyone has a great season as well.

Tone10
Tone10

YTD 0-0 +0.00

CLV (Closing Line Value): +0.00

CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +0.00

As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).

No more adds based off BetCris openers. Card for opening day is final.

Monday 4/1

917 Kansas City Royals +135

922 Oakland Athletics -105

Tone10
Tone10

 Mike, thanks buddy. GL to you as well.

 Key, BOL this season. Have no doubt you will crush it again. I'll gladly take 1-1 with the dog cashing, though I do think there's significant value in Brett Anderson at that line. The King is the King, but the gap between him and Anderson is bridged by the superior A's squad overall. I'll gladly take the home team at that cheap price.

Tone10
Tone10

Will get a more detailed post up but wanted to get these out. Played the following off BetOnline openers on Opening Day.

917 Kansas City Royals +135

922 Oakland Athletics -105

Tone10
Tone10
These numbers are rough so proceed with caution. Very difficult to project lines early in the season as there is no real data to work from yet.

Red Sox (J. Lester) @ Yankees (C. Sabathia) -145

Marlins (R. Nolasco) @ Nationals (S. Strasburg) -260

Padres (E. Volquez) @ Mets (J. Niese) -140

Cubs (J. Samardjiza) @ Pirates (A. Burnett) -130

Rockies (J. Chacin) @ Brewers (Y. Gallardo) -180

Angels (J. Weaver) @ Reds (J. Cueto) -120

Tigers (J. Verlander) -200 @ Twins (V. Worley)

Royals (J. Shields) @ White Sox (C. Sale) -130

Giants (M. Cain) @ Dodgers (C. Kershaw) -150

Phillies (C. Hamels) @ Braves (T. Hudson) -110

Mariners (F. Hernandez) @ Athletics (B. Anderson) -120

Cardinals (A. Wainwright) @ Diamondbacks (I. Kennedy) -105

jw11
jw11

I absolutely hate these threads.

THERE ARE NO FISHY LINES... just people who don't understand how a line is made.

Most teams will get 4 points for being at home. If Syracuse were -4 that would mean Syracuse and Georgetown are equal. And they are not. Not even close. Georgetown stringing together a couple wins doesn't change that. Oddsmakers do not overreact.

The line opened Syracuse -7 because they are 3 points better than Georgetown.

If this game were in Georgetown the line would be Georgetown -1. And people would be screaming it's a fishy line the OTHER way because people constantly undervalue home court. And again, they don't understand how a line is made.

MYSTICRICH
MYSTICRICH
Quote Originally Posted by MYSTICRICH:



stop with the line crap , he has them ranked  4th in the country ,and says they are underrated do you see this ?   the big east sucks  

And it ain't only him that has them that high. Vegas power-rankings have them in the top 10 as well... and they're the ones who matter because they make the lines... not some random guy on covers who doesn't understand how lines are created.

Once again, you have no idea what you are talking about.

MYSTICRICH
MYSTICRICH

You have no idea what you are talking about.

Pitt has gotten lines of -10.5 vs. ND, +1 @ Cincy, -4 vs. Syracuse, -3 @ Marquette, +6 @ Louisville, and +1 @ Georgetown.

Some of those they have covered, some they have not. What's clear is that both KenPom and sharp bettors are lining Pitt as one of the top 10 teams in the nation.

Tone10
Tone10
Added the following...

Purdue +6.5

Stanford -17.5

Tennessee Martin +25.5
Tone10
Tone10

Made the following bets tomorrow off BetOnline.

Saturday 12/15

Marshall +12.5

Belmont +12

San Diego +18

Weber State +4

 

Tone10
Tone10

Missed a few:

UC Riverside @ USC -16.5

Florida -1.5 @ Arizona

UC Irvine @ Fresno State -5.5

Furman @ Auburn -14.5

Georgia Southern @ Virginia Tech -17

Tone10
Tone10

East Carolina @ North Carolina -17.5

Cincinnati -8 @ Marshall

Butler vs. Indiana -14.5 (Neutral)

Wright State -6 @ Hofstra

Eastern Michigan @ Illinois Chicago -9

Texas A&M @ Oklahoma -2 (Semi-Home)

SMU @ Rhode Island -1

Cleveland State @ St. Bonaventure -7

Northern Iowa vs. Iowa -1.5 (Neutral)

Fordham vs. Princeton -10 (Neutral)

Louisville -3 @ Memphis

Dartmouth @ Arizona State -13.5

Tulsa @ Arkansas Little Rock -1

Alabama @ VCU -8.5

Nebraska @ Oregon -13

Purdue vs. Notre Dame -3 (Neutral)

UC Davis @ Stanford -21.5

Drake vs. Iowa State -9.5 (Neutral)

New Mexico State @ New Mexico -11

San Francisco @ Nevada -1.5

Florida Atlantic @ Dayton -16

Akron @ Detroit PK

Valparaiso -4.5 @ Missouri State

Southern Illinois @ Wisconsin Green Bay -5.5

Mississippi State @ Loyola Chicago -6

Georgia State -3 @ Troy

West Virginia vs. Michigan -9 (Neutral)

Santa Clara @ Pacific -2

UL Lafayette @ Houston -4.5

Texas State @ Texas -18

Kansas State @ Gonzaga -7.5 (Semi-Home)

San Diego @ San Diego State -15.5

Creighton @ California PK

Elon @ Massachusetts -10.5

Western Carolina @ Georgetown -17.5

Tennessee Martin @ Saint Louis -22

Iona @ Georgia -2

Nebraska Omaha @ Denver -24

Belmont @ Kansas -8.5

North Dakota State -7 @ Towson

Canisius @ Syracuse -21.5

Indiana State -5 @ IUPUI

NC Wilmington @ Davidson -18

Ball State @ South Dakota -1

Tennessee Tech @ Wisconsin Milwaukee -2.5

BYU -1 @ Weber State

South Dakota State @ Montana PK

NC Asheville @ Ohio State -25.5

Tone10
Tone10
Quote Originally Posted by dangor2:

Tone,

I'd be very interested in your numbers for Saturday if you have them yet.  Thanks for posting those.  They are a very useful gut check for me.

In the process of formulating them now... big card but will get them up as soon as possible.

boostyourego
boostyourego
I've got Indiana -14.5.
Tone10
Tone10

YTD 4-6 -2.60

Beat the number once again on Wednesday, grabbing Savannah State at +23 when it closed +21.5. To no avail though as they got trounced by 40.

Got another really good number on today's card, bet at the opening number thrown out by BetOnline. Posted in my projected lines thread from yesterday.

Friday 12/14

824 Old Dominion +8

My line for this game was Central Florida -4, so the +8 on ODU was obviously going to be a play. This line plunged a bit shortly thereafter, and by yesterday night it was down to +5.5.  Pinnacle currently has it at Central Florida -5.

Good luck today everybody.

Tone10
Tone10
Made a play on Old Dominion +8 at BetOnline.
Tone10
Tone10

Central Florida -4 @ Old Dominion

Charlotte @ Miami FL -9.5

LSU @ Boise State -6

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