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Thread Author Sidehatch Post Entries
Sidehatch
Sidehatch

Thanks for the specifics about the rules and refs. That makes sense, reminds me of the NFL

Sidehatch
Sidehatch

Quote Originally Posted by Leafs2019:

I hate it since most of the time I’m an Over better... this season I’ve been under betting more often then none

My original ruleset was if its' a 5.0 line, bet the over. If it's a 5.5 line or higher, bet the under. That's all in the garbage this season after overs took the league by storm in 2017-18. 

It really seems like:

2016-17 was the year to bet unders for those higher lines.

2017-18 was a year of unprecedented overs, regardless of line.

2018-19?

My theory right now is: Apparently the high scorers are going off, but for 6.0 and under, the unders still have value. Need to think about it some more.

Sidehatch
Sidehatch

Quote Originally Posted by tone79:

As an over bettor I Hate the 6.5s and 3.5 TTS but have been picking my spots, 5.5s is the new 5 now

Me too. However, going back to 11/23 the 5.5s are 32/30, and the 6.5s are 38/22 (YIKES). The 6.0 during that timeframe is 38/46/7. I think I'm going to start heavily taking unders on the 6.0s that originally started at 5.5. 

Sidehatch
Sidehatch

Why is scoring up so much in the past two years?

I've been tracking overunders in the NHL since 2016, and scoring went way up after the 2016-17 season. It's totally caused a seismic shift in the overunder lines. Or is it a longer trend and it just took Vegas a whille to adjust to it?

Examples:

In 2016-17, there were 395 overunder lines of 5.0 from start of season through 2/11/17. 

In the current season, there are ZERO overunder lines of 5.0 from start of season through 12/22/18.

In 2016-17, there were 3 overunder lines of 6.5 from start of season through 2/11/17. 

In the current season, there are 93 overunder lines of 6.5 from start of season through 12/22/18.

 

Vangs
Vangs
Good thing I took Rams -6.5 and sent this thread to Dana White.
Vangs
Vangs

Quote Originally Posted by Vangs:

Vikings +6.5 (max bet)    Dana white put 500k on this play. Guy is banned everywhere cuz he always wins.

I am far from the brightest on this board, but didn’t Joe Fortenbaugh of the Covers 600 podcast say last week that the home team was 13-1 against the number when road team has to travel 2,000 miles or more on three days rest? Granted, he said this week the number is high, but still.

Sidehatch
Sidehatch

Second half is a tough schedule, you are right. That’s why while I am still doing this bet, I am not going huge with it.

I think what is a little unrealistic is that everyone is assuming that every team in the AFC West is going to be great, when historically at least one or two of those teams flop on their face.

theclaw
theclaw

I like the Vikings to regress. Remember their offense before Shurmur stepped in? I do! 

As for the Eagles, I have criticized Pederson in the past, but their defense is just filthy nasty. They could regress some and still make the playoffs and be dangerous.

Polar_Bear
Polar_Bear

After looking at the OAK roster again, I like it ... if 75-80% can stay healthy. I predict the same old Gruden pattern we saw before: wins a bunch the first two years, then returns to 8-8land when his old guy roster bites him.

Sidehatch
Sidehatch

I think their defense will be better because they hired a defensive minded head coach. Bettcher's defense was good against mediocre/average/bad teams, but would get blown out against the super teams with regularity. Wilks is one of the league's top defensive strategist, and inherits a pretty good unit. Sure, it's a 3-4 he's inheriting and he's a 4-3, but I think he's smart enough to work with what he inherited. He didn't get to where he is by being unable to adapt. 

As for QB, I think it comes down to scheme. The statheads at the Fantasy Footballers podcast routinely pointed out that during the Vikings years, Bradford was a short-passing game specialist. He can get the ball out quick when in the gun, and is very accurate. Now consider that he has Fitz, Johnson, Kirk, Seals Jones, and Gresham, all of whom are suited to that game. 

Now add in Mike McCoy, who is capable of calling that specific type of offense. 

Why do I bring up short passing game? Because it helps nullify a subpar offensive line. 

Did the offensive line get better? Absolutely. The entire line was injured last year, and they still won 8 games. They improved with Pugh, who in NY was asked to play out of position all the time in perhaps the league's worst unit. Iupati has never been a great pass blocker, but also remember that he was there in 2015 when they made their run. He is good enough when everyone else is clicking. Humphries was much better last year, but had a freak knee injury in that game against the Seahawks. Veldheer is done, and while Smith isn't the best tackle in the league, he's certainly better than Veldheer. Shipley isn't the best, but he's also smart enough to be a good signal caller and avoids the false start penalties that other centers frequently cause. 

These guys only need to win six games, which I see being:

Redskins at home

Bears at home

Seattle once

49ers at least once, who are heavily overhyped

Broncos at home

 

Now we're at 5ish. Toss in the Lions in Week 14, or a lucky game somewhere, and we're easily over the 6 mark. 

I feel like a lot of people who are down on the Cardinals didn't watch them last year. Drew Stanton was terrible, but they still won. They've only improved at that position since then. 

Best of luck guys! Appreciate your insight!

Sidehatch
Sidehatch

Suuma is well-respected, and I appreciate his reply, but I just politely disagree.

Not sure where he gets the bottom 10 defense from, they weren't bottom 10 in passing or running. Their PPG was a little high, but that was also inflated due to a few nasty blowouts. I see their defense improving with the help of a defensive-minded head coach. 

Don't get me wrong - the Rams are far better. But Seattle is on the decline (their secondary is a joke), and the 49ers aren't as good as the general public thinks they are after they beat some mediocre teams. The Cards will get at least 3 wins against NFC West foes. 

The Cards are coming off a season where they went 8-8 with Drew Stanton and Gabbert starting most of their games, missing their record-setting starting RB the entire season, and an improved OL (they rolled the dice on some new FA signings, but hey, they still got better from last year). They lost Honey Badger and a few replacement level D-linemen, but they also hired a defensive minded coach and made some new acquisitions. 

With home games against Detroit, Chicago, Redskins, Raiders, and Broncos, I see them being able to win at least 3 more games to clear that 5.5. 

Honestly, a lot of it will come down to how well the team picks up Mike McCoy's offense. If they sputter badly out the gate and never put it together, Suuma will be right. If they pick it up and are slightly better than last year's team, then they will easily clear the 5.5 total.

I watched every Cards game last season, along with most of the league, and I think their offense will be better than last year, where there were games when Stanton overthrew every WR on every mid-to-deep pass. David Johnson is far, far better than the low-WAR guys they started last season too.

Good luck guys, and thanks for the responses! 

Sidehatch
Sidehatch

Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

Holy smokes - I just checked Football Outsiders and they had AZ ranked as the #4 defense in their revised figures as of 2018-06-01.https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdefI definitely lean to the over 5.5.  Good luck, Sidehatch.
Thanks dobgite, their defense kept them in a lotta games last year. I think my biggest question for them this year is whether they will have a vanilla offense or a spicy one wth McCoy at OC

Sidehatch
Sidehatch

Interested in your thoughts. I like the over, even if it's -150. 

Top 10 defense, a big improvement at QB, OL, and RB. Are they Super Bowl contenders, definitely not. Are they capable of taking second in the NFC West? Absolutely.

Polar_Bear
Polar_Bear

I am okay with Gruden's schemes, but his personnel decisions have been horrible over the years. He keeps opting for old slow guys.

bpickin
bpickin

Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

AUTOBET OVERRERRRRRRR

 

Hard to think of a more frustrating team in 2017. They have to be better, right?

darkhorse12
darkhorse12
Politics / TARIFFS / View Post

Quote Originally Posted by darkhorse12:

China will impose 50 billion in tariffs on 659 US goods!maga

Never understood how the pea-brained right wing, which is supposedly all about free market capitalism and gets totally freaked out about socialism, could support a guy whose trade policies are so similar to Hugo Chavez's. I disliked Trump from the beginning because his thoughts on trade are really infantile and are similar to the ideas that a banana republic nationalist dictator would roll out.

Sidehatch
Sidehatch
Quote Originally Posted by Money4Nuthin:

I see Pitt winning 90 games. They are vastly improved. I am playing them, Sea, and LAA. Like ATL too.

Fading Baltimore and TB, Cubs too. 

What are your thoughts on Williams v. Hendricks tomorrow? Is Williams a good enough pitcher to get it done against a strong lineup like the Cubs?
Sidehatch
Sidehatch
Quote Originally Posted by Duvita:

Why the Pirates?

I don't think they'll be as bad as people think, don't see a huge downgrade from what McCutchen was doing last year to Dickerson and Cole wasn't that good either.


I agree with those points. I was suggesting fading Pitt because I thought their starting pitching is a liability. So far, you've been right and they've made it work, albeit with some really high scoring games. 
Sidehatch
Sidehatch

I suspect that early season strategy might favor doing the following on ML:

fading the Yankees

backing the A’s and the Royals

backing Cleveland

backing the Twins

backing the Angels 1-3 starters 

fading Pittsburgh and Miami

backing the Cardinals and Dodgers

 

Just a hunch, we will see how it all plays out!

Sidehatch
Sidehatch

well this year year I broke with tradition. I was indecisive and waiting until the last minute to make my bets. Then the Bumgarner and Samardzija injuries bhappened, so I bet my season win total bankroll on Giants under at 81.5 at +140 just before the line came off the board.

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