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Surewincover
Surewincover
Are you betting the futures wagers to win the championship?

Please explain in greater detail  how you arrived at your 67% probability of winning.
Jonas33
Jonas33
You need a large bank and balls of steel to play all div.1A teams.

That's why I play just the top 30 pre-season poll teams. This year it went through without a loss(6 game chase), and I made 32 units, betting 1-3-7-15-31-62.  
jriv189
jriv189
Quote Originally Posted by LineKiller28:


just curious, how are you not impressed with with a stout defense, one of the highest ranking offensive passing games, a QB with a top5 QBR rating (playing a QB with a worst 3 QBR)....barely losing to a great AZ team, winning in Sea, Oak (ok easy one), and KC....what more would they ave to be to be "impressive" at this junction?

the Jets seem to be everyones "sexy" pick this week, good luck with Rex who's only success came upon the backs of a defense built by Parcells.  Anythings possible on a Sunday I suppose, GL with it.


I agree with you, Killer as far as who the better team is, and who will win today.  But I have to point out that the Chargers beat Seattle at Qualcomm, and have not played Oakland or KC.  They did, however beat Buffalo in Buffalo.  They are 3-1.  The only win the Jets have is against winless Oakland.  Sorry Jets fans, but the cards are stacked against you.  One thing in your favor, though.  Half a dozen Charger starters are out with injuries.  I still think they have too many weapons for the dudes in green.
GeneralSharp
GeneralSharp
Solid advice,G.S. The only thing I disagree with is never lowering your unit size.  This has worked for you, but if you have a bad losing streak that takes half your bank, and you are still betting a large unit size, you have an increased risk of going broke.  Your 1% rule is good, but a bit on the conservative side, so this probably takes some of the risk out when you are wagering large units.  I don't always flat-bet, but it is a good way to take emotion out of the equation.  Thanks for sharing!
bDnews
bDnews
See post #1.
SportsFan9698
SportsFan9698
As a longtime TKO player, I can tell you that the real advantage for the player  when the count is favorable does not come through playing strategy,although it is important.  The real advantage s in the betting sequence.  When the count is high, the advantage shifts to the player mainly because of the 3-2 payout on a player blackjack.  Yes, the dealer and everyone else at the table has an equal chance at hitting it.
But the dealer blackjack does not pay extra.  So, say you are playing a unit size of $25.  This is your bet on the first hand.  After a few hands the count warrants a 5 unit bet, $125.  A blackjack is now more likely, and if you are the lucky one, you will win $187.50.  There are other dynamics at work in these situations that are in the player's favor also, but then you need to get the book(or books).  Wong's hi-lo count system is also still one of the best out there.

One more thing.... if you are playing basic strategy, NEVER take insurance, including EVEN MONEY when both you and the dealer have blackjack.

GLTA
HappyKane
HappyKane
NFL Betting / GOW: TITANS / View Post
Hang in there HK!
KineProfessor
KineProfessor
Quote Originally Posted by CBARocks:

Auburn is a fade today. Ranked #209 in Kenpom but 9 point favorite



Yes, you can try it now, CBA, but KP's system as described in this thread does not apply to games now.  Wait until Feb.  
                                           
daviddaman24
daviddaman24
Hey D-Man.  As a fellow San Diegan and Aztec alum, I am both excited and worried about Thursday night's battle with the 'Cats.

There's no doubt that the "V" will be rockin', and I believe it has been sold out for quite some time.  I worry that this relatively "new" group hasn't had enough time to jell yet.  I have no doubt that they will have yet another 20+ win season.  I just wish THIS game would have come a few weeks into the season.  I'm still putting my dough on the Aztecs, though!

GL
rivermonsterz
rivermonsterz
OK, thanks Bart.  Let's see how it works out.  GL
rivermonsterz
rivermonsterz
Hey, Bart.  Toronto is traveling from Edmonton to Calgary, a distance of about 180 miles.  Still a play?
bDnews
bDnews
Quote Originally Posted by TheBeefMan:


I'm sorry for the loss, man. I know it sucks and I'm lucky to have gotten out of this series early. I just think there are lessons to be learned here.

I still like this system, but think a 4 game chase would be more realistic. 

I think what some people might be upset about regarding your comments, is the timing.  It's easy to reveal that 4-game strategy after the fact, but did you post that before the "E" game?  Just sayin'.

neilsy25
neilsy25
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Ok, I'm starting this up again for the new college football season.

Rules recap:

  • We bet on all Div 1 (FBS) teams to get an Over in one of their first 3 games. If all 3 games go Under we switch to betting the Under for their next 3 games. Basically we are betting against a team going UUUOOO.
  • Only games vs other Div1 teams count. For example Boston College plays Villanova this week, that game will not count in this chase. BC will start game 1 on 9/6 when they play Wake Forest.
  • Pushes are considered as a no play, as if the game never happened.

I think that pretty much covers it. This thread has some interesting reading if you have the time. Plays for the week will be in my next post.



This is a good system and I've been playing it for a few years now, getting burned once with Miami(Ohio) I believe, who did go UUUOOO.  It takes a lot of bank to play all of the FBS teams, so what I do now is play just the pre-season top 25 or 30 teams, which gives you some pretty good action, but requires a lot less BR.  If you have the bank and the balls, by all means do the whole enchilada.  Top 25 is a good way to get your feet wet or if your BR has suffered during MLB, it can help you recover.  GLTA
Snappa
Snappa
Thanks, Degen.  I will check it out.
Snappa
Snappa
fine-tuning a system and need a site that breaks down each pitcher's ERA for inning #1,#2,#3  and so on. Or even a site that shows runs allowed (earned or unearned) for an individual pitcher per inning.  Any ideas?   Thanks guys.
FrozenTundra
FrozenTundra
Everything Mugg said is right on.  Take the pirate ship for the sunset cruise around El Arco.  If you are an inexperienced waterman, be mindful of high surf due to nearby hurricanes, and stay out of the Pacific surf.  Otherwise, diving and snorkeling can be very good. 

Definitely ignore the time-share pitches.  Although you can get some great perks like jetski rentals, quad rentals and such for free, the high pressure slick talking sales people are very good at what they do.  And the 90 minute sales presentation turns into 3hrs plus!

Cabo is probably the only place in Mexico I would feel safe..(no offense to the Mexican people; I love Mexico, but with all the violence in recent years I am very cautious).but still it's best to be wary of your surroundings and stay in the tourist confines...don't wander off the beaten track, and don't flash cash, fancy jewelry, and such.  Have a great time!
heinz2141
heinz2141
Go to Bellagio late afternoon before dinner hour and pay for lunch and just hang out until the dinner food trays start coming out.  That is what some friends of mine do and they get dinner for the lunch price!

Not my style, but...
RandyN29
RandyN29
I don't get it either, Randy.  I've never had a problem with 5Dimes check redemptions, and I plan on making a withdrawal in a few days(next Monday when they have a free withdrawal period).

Strange, though.  I am not able to access the site all of a suuden.  It is Wed., 8/8 about 8:50 PM PT, and I can't log in.  Anyone else having this problem?
Burly
Burly
I meant to say those games I mentioned above were games where the dealer stands on soft 17. 

There are tons of games with dbl after split, but not too many combined with stand on sft 17.
Burly
Burly
Yes, DJ.  M Life casinos have dbl deck pitch games with  DAS.  Also Aria and TI.  These are $50 min. tables. I believe the Monte Carlo game is $100 min., but I didn't play there.  I did play at MGM, Bellagio, and Treasure Island, among others.  Some of the DD games   had a house edge of only .19, which is a pretty good game. Good pen also. I think once in a while a casino will have 2-1 blackjack, but only as a promotion, and only for a short time. I never hear of early surrender being offered, but maybe it's out there somewhere.
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