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Thread Author Beechernic Post Entries
DrStrangelove
DrStrangelove
LINE VALUE!?!?!?!

Thank you for saying that.   Between "that" phrase, and BA mentioning a 20yo's motivation...
   ....this site still has hope.
Beechernic
Beechernic
GATk/CLEM 57 & 58.5u
FLA/UT 43.5u
OKSt/BAY 75.5o
IA/RUT 55.5u
KENT/ALA 49u
Beechernic
Beechernic
CMU -3.5
TCU/SMU 63.5o
GATk +9.5
UTAH -3
IOWA -12.5
FSU/USF 61o
WVA -7
FLA +6.5
WKY -7.5
LATk/MTSU 68o


Im too embarased to post the amount and combination of parlays.
VegasPro4Life
VegasPro4Life
May need another zero or two, if you wanna move MGM
Ducks_Homer
Ducks_Homer
Dont sweat this one.    You'll do it again.  Kinda the way it goes.


Remember....
Women are like socks...  When you lose one, there's another behind the washer that looks just like her, and she's always dirtier.
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
College Football / WEEK 10 / View Post
M15
I took SMU +6 1st half, and TT 10O, as well.

To me SMU has seemed like a 1st half team.  Now I havent watched them to a full extent bc....  well.... i wanted to watch other games, but at an initial glance, maybe something warranted...  so I dove in this week bc its the only LIVE GAME, my book is offering in a "continuous" fashion, on a Friday night.

Below Ive listed the games in reverse order.

Halftime Score (SMU),  Gm Sprd, (assumed 1st 1/2 sprd)
v TULS....23...(21),  +1...........(evn) 
@ USF....17....(7),  +12........(+6.0)
@ HOU....28...(21), +25.....(+12.5)
v ECU......21...(23), +6..........(+3.0)
v JMU......17....(14),  -3..........(-1.5)
@ TCU....28...(17),  +37.....(+16.5)
v NTX........6....(7),   -6...........(-3.0)
v BAY......28....(21),  +36....(+16.5)

I guess when looking at this, knowing they are a bad team... I was using the 21yo mentality.  Its still a game, and when you take the field, you are still invincible.  The "lay down" mentality usually doesnt kick in until the 2nd half.
And generally speaking, they score and cover the first half...less some games they were favored in - Eeeek.
It may be fair to say the NTx game came after a Baylor throttle, and USF was on the road.  (But that is just picking spots that support this theory, and NOT, bc i didnt watch, the real story).
TRAIN69
TRAIN69
UDMLP Options...

Duke
OKSt
LSU
ASU
UVA
Indy

Just saying....
Ill prob pick/choose for 2 - 3tmrs

MEGALOCKS
MEGALOCKS
Quote Originally Posted by BreakDBookie:

It's just money... what are the picks for today.. Friday Ncaa football 

No leans for tonight  "Mega"

-Apparently the Head of the Advisory Board is currently on another call.    WAHOOS
Howie_Doin
Howie_Doin
this is the worst part about the site!!!

Thursday at 7:20pm it was at 52 on Top Bet.  And probably not the only one that reached that number.

regardless the game reached 43.   The only gripe someone could have is if he cleared by 0.5pts.

Just let it fly.   tail, fade, it's my money.  I just do it in silence.
I wish everyone would just make their own assessments and picks, and the use the information provided on this site to increase or decrease the PERSONAL unit size.
Boom_Boom
Boom_Boom
uggghhhh....
I'm 50/50 right now.   Do i keep weeding through this garbage disposal residue looking for insight, or just wait to parlay Train's top 3 + Mortgage Plays + everyone of my own picks......?

Since this 6 page post, reads like a stenographer's account of a Jr High's principal's office.....  I would like to add a distracting small story of my own....

Living in Knoxville, I am surrounded by the LARGEST fan base that would sell any body part for a shot at an NC (FB, WBB, T&F, MBB, XC)  Tennessee losing Fulmer, Pearl, and Summit in a 5 yr span was almost as bad as Mississippi losing the rights to thier flag!   In the last 4 years ive lived here, ive heard countless preseason speeches about winning the SEC and then a NC title shot.  The huge problem with this, is perspective.  What every happened to winning the home games, or the division, or having a coach earning a tenure-esque contract?
Like many others on here, Ive lived in every time zone.  I am a fan of teams that are thousands of miles away.  And my allegiance, as a fan, is strong enough to wear a T-shirt on game day, but shallow enough to know "If they cant cover as a dog, they wont go .500".   <---- true statement, false statement...   does it matter....   the point stands.

The SEC schedule is riddled with as many holes as any other conference.  Its no better, its no worse.  Strong and weak teams, both dominate, and get sent home surprised.

UK and Vandy used to be stepping stones towards UT's winning season.   The week before the OKLA game, I made a statement at work that Tennessee would lose to Kentucky over Halloween.  !!!!!Almost lost my job!!!!!       But take a look.  Kentucky is arguably in the top .500 in the conference.   Better than ARK, AUB, SC, MIZ...   and yes, the same Missouri team, that along with TXAM saved the SEC conference the last few years, with monstrous wins (hahahahaha - "for the conference")   <----  ridiculous statement in itself.

By ZERO means, am I calling anyone out on here.   NEVER.    I refuse to perpetuate the cycle.    But at some point, as a fan....reality has to set in that the Playoff System, ALONE, pulled off the golden slipper for the SEC.
Top 3 teams?   Top 10 teams?   Conference representative?   The playoff system ultimately requires a top team in a BCS conference to beat ANOTHER top team in a BCS conference.
And thats what the SEC was surviving on missing in NC bids.  Hell, thats what all were missing.  ND, Utah, FL, ALA, OHSt (have they honestly been the outright BEST TEAM and deserving of an NC spot, or did they just hold on to the #1/#2 spot in the waning weeks?   
This statement, please, is not deflatting the SEC and their ability to compete and/or win.   its strictly pointing out that the biggest kid from the largest HS, may not be the biggest kid in the in the city (or county, or state, our country).   Its the same reason the Sun Belt continues to surprise the SEC with upsets.  Point is, you can not, as a fan, or sports investor, accept an IN-CONF loss because "...but It's your dog".  Are you confident that when that dog leaves the yard, its not submitting to an angry mixed mutt with dirty tennis balls between its legs?


HOLY BALL SACK ON A CHEESE GRATER.    I am so sorry for the manifesto.   Hitting submit no....
WahooS
WahooS
Baylor
Mich St
Stanford
TCU
Boom_Boom
Boom_Boom
Is it me, or is the "..but Best of Luck to You."   is the new southern gambling equivalent to...   "Bless his heart"  "God love him"

Visually its positive, but in reference - SO NEGATIVE.
TeThienDaiThanh
TeThienDaiThanh
well....
i think line went from -3.5  >  -5  >  -3.5
Beechernic
Beechernic
College Football / AZ QB / View Post
anyone know any news on Sol?

something better than questionable, please
Beechernic
Beechernic
Thank you all!!!!

love the INTELLIGENT talk
Beechernic
Beechernic
HAHAHAHA
Fkn Mike!!!!    Love it.
I shoulda threw "Potatoes" into the list of screen names I stalk.
Beechernic
Beechernic
Along with my visual and statistical analysis, i also look at a dozen - or so other cappers picks, and LINE MOVEMENTS.

Im not going to shout out Cappers that I follow...  i troll here 20x a day.  So I tend to look for "Orange Paws" "Mortgage Bets" "Asian Statues" "Hannibal Lecters" RainbowQBs" and the likes.

In-depth Line Movement Analysis is the topic i want some advice on.   Bookie Assas and I had a few exchanges a couple bowl seasons ago, that I loved.   Appreciate you taking the time to discuss with someone as low posting as myself.   

Big Friday night line movement is the MEM / SFL game.
Opened at 12.5...   now 7.
5.5 POINTS.    I get what that means.   Large amounts of money moves points large amounts of distance.    But at what point is the public CRASHING the line?    Like a small dip in the road, turns into a huge pot hole with everyone is stomping it.

For argument's sake
I will conceive that MEM is only 10.5 points better than SFL.   So early movement Mon/Tues brought the line back to normal.  now on Wed, 5Million "Johnny Computer Screens" realizes 2pts of movement and immediately thinks he can predict something.  Wed and Thur, the public continues to coerce the line another 3 points.

I place bets 70% of my wagers on Mon and Fri night.  Weather and Injury adjustments on Saturday (to correct units), and then a plethora of jackass parlays tying my GREAT IDEAS/READS together into an orgy of "on paper" winning combinations throughout the week.

At this point...   has the MEM/SFL movement gotten out of control?  and the value is gone...  or better flipped, AGAIN??

At some point Linesmakes have to look and say, "SHITE, we're gonna get middled, deeper than those girls walking outside the Imperial Palace."

Thoughts, conversations appreciated by everyone...

kalamus20
kalamus20
miami kicker is a stud.  flat out!!!!

you go for a TD inside the RedZone.   knowing that on the "2nd drive" you have a 60yd FG (ball on 43) in your pocket.   With the ball on the 43, Badgley is a higher probability for the final points than a hail marry.
Howie_Doin
Howie_Doin
Danner, 44...
   I love this!!!!
With the Covers culture turning into bash/tout...   this was a fantastic way to throw stones.   Thank you
vankiep_0007
vankiep_0007
Quote Originally Posted by mrdish33:

weather is rain ? still bet on the over VK 

I think weather is good.
upper 50s all evening.  rain stops at 6.   slight breeze.
shouldnt factor.

Is it me, or did the haters take a small week off?   its nice to open up links with information for once.
Large thanks to ALL that have aided to this (possibly short) change.