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Beergut
Beergut
Quote Originally Posted by sfg8:

that's what i thought as well...rogers ctr is indoors...btw tampa won 4-3..maybe nxt time...

Rogers Ctr. has a retractable roof; the game was played outdoors. But, I lost...for perhaps the 2,500th+ time!!!

BTW, my best year EVER on even money action was 62.7 percent...(1994).
Beergut
Beergut
There is one very interesting MLB tilt I'm looking at. It's on Saturday. The Rays Hellickson goes against the Blue Jays Buehrle; Hellickson is the slowest worker in MLB, 26 sec. between pitches...Buehrle is the fastest worker, 19 sec. between pitches. It'll be roaring hot at 1PM on Toronto's artificial surface. Even if Mark gets ripped, at least the Jays get to play baseball. The poor Rays will be roasting in the hot sun, with their thumbs up their keisters, standing around, doing nothing, while watching a professional pitcher pitch. I love the Blue Jays ML in this one.
Beergut
Beergut
Quote Originally Posted by ShadowWarrior:

Thanks trim88, I live in Kaneohe, surf Rockpiles whenever.  This summer has been a bomb!

Gosh, I tried...bit off more than I could chew: gave Haleiwa a shot, it was so steep I almost got killed. I should've had fun learning at Ala Moana, but of course, thought I was special: wrong answer. Surfing takes time, dedication and an athleticism I could never have. I failed miserably. Rockpiles demands the best of the best...well done, my friend...well done.
Beergut
Beergut
Quote Originally Posted by ShadowWarrior:

Not too many can have a 200 k bankroll.  You are probably the only one I know.  I hope you can give some picks!

That bankroll sure didn't come from 'cappin, Shadow!...In the late 80's (I remember in decades, now, rather than dates!) I was reading the financial back page of the San Diego Union. Laurence Tisch (President of CBS) had bought 20K shares of Bank of Boston at 1 dollar. Why? With Larry's wealth he should be buying Coke or P&G. I didn't wait around: I had hustled around 10K from savings/working the Caliente Sports Book (Tijuana); I dumped the Bank of Boston load (all of it) into a margin account at 2 bucks.

Larry didn't disappoint: he ended up buying about 4.4 million shares and when it was all over the stock went from 1 to 44...I cashed out. You can imagine the doubling power of a margin account. It was a beautiful thing.

I relate this story because there are many opportunities right at the book. For instance, many offshore books have political betting: Richard Murdoch was a huge favorite to crush Joe Donnelly for the Indiana US Senate race.  I was reading the Huffington Post the very morning Murdoch said, "rape was something God intended." Again, I didn't wait around: I took Donnelly at +140 and Obama +220 to win Florida in a two-teamer...I made a friggin' killing on that one. I also two-teamed Obama to win New Hampshire with the Saints/Cowboys over...another monster.

It's important that, at least occasionally, you look over cricket, politics, rugby...you name it, because there will be opportunities.

Also, don't forget to read Rip-Off Report for stock picks...once you see a corporation with tons of complaints, be ready to buy some puts...you may do well.

It's the All-Star Break. The only time of year when there is zero action in anything, so I have so time to fool around. Have a great day, Shadow (I live in Honolulu, corner of Wilder/Piikoi, for five years.)
Beergut
Beergut
Quote Originally Posted by T-One:

trim, how much do you bet? if 2-6 bets a week, your bet size must be different. 

I started with a 200K bankroll; my action is typically 2.5% of my bankroll, which is kept in margin account, just in case I have to borrow of my stocks/bonds.

I have had years where I have lost 100K...I just dealt with with.

have a good one!
goofball
goofball
One WSEX owner is in prison, the other (Steve Schillinger) committed suicide last week; the company simply ran out of cash and had it's Antiguan gaming license revoked. They're done.
trim88
trim88
Bad month for Legends: the US Atty for OK, handed down a huge indictment/shutdown for A+ (SBR rated) Legends...anyone been burned? Or, have your accts been smoothly xferred?
casinoroyal
casinoroyal
I turned $500 into $4700 at 5 dimes and received a $50 limit on all action. It is what it is.
Beergut
Beergut
Rarely do I visit covers...this is why I'm so late in responding to this thread.
I live the dream you're talking about. However, it really is more a labor of love.
Every single day, I look at every game in every major US sport: baseball, football, hockey, hoop, both college and pro, both side and total.
I might find two plays on a weekday (sometimes zero) and four on a weekend (sometimes only two).
You can do it. But it requires a single-minded dedication, a short memory and an unshakable belief in yourself. Once you listen to the sharps, or worry about covers experts, you're dead.

Here is my most important tip: JUST PICK WINNERS! once you get involved in the spread, you're dead. Coaches don't care about the line (though many believe they do), they only care about winning the game. If this means having to play a two-teamer to drive down the chalk, then do it.

I would say "good luck" to you, but it's important that luck be kept to an absolute minimum.
JFen31
JFen31
Tennessee is a much better team than they're given credit for...the public disses UT because they beat up Summit contender Oakland at home...UT is a vastly underrated team that can beat GT outright...a +255 ML wager is a solid play. Be that as it may, I'll buy a half-point hook with UT (+7.5), purchase another half-point hook on Kent St/NIU (+8.5), parlay the pair and enjoy a late afternoon game-fest. Another day at the office!
KineProfessor
KineProfessor
many, many times i've lost 5 in a row...over the course of 25 years I've probably come in on 100 "reverse parlays", (i.e. if I would have picked the opposite side for all plays within the parlay I did pick, I would've won).
The essence of doing this for a living is to play every day (unless you lose focus, then take a few days off). That way, the risk is spread over months and years...an investment.
Play 5 times a year and you are gambling...and you will lose.
Just stay on it..never too high, never too low.
KineProfessor
KineProfessor
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



I'm not nearly as confident as you are as I can see some ways that Davis struggles to score and could fall behind early, but I agree this isn't your typical game where the home team is waiting to POUND a perceived weaker opponent.  Cal Poly just wants to "win" period and will take any type of W at the moment (as shown by the lineup shuffle etc.).  Its your garden variety 1-unit play for me but I can see where people could see going higher. 

But we must all laugh at the craziness of this thread as we are all discussing how "BIG" we are going on 5 win, 23 loss Kenpom ranked #316 out of 345 teams Cal Davis!  That is literally exactly what this thread should be about.  Can you imagine someone that hasn't read this thread and see a thread on the front page with the title CAL DAVIS BIG TONIGHT.  They would get laughed off the front page in an instant.  Don't know if this will cover or not tonight but it is certainly the "theory of opposites" I discussed last week!

Oh, gawd!...That's just about what I wrote in a covers headline! I rarely post on covers...pure serendipity. UCD will most likely lose by 30, but I'm playing with very short house money and coming of two ML Davis wins...full disclosure: I follow the Big West closely; it's in my neighborhood.
KineProfessor
KineProfessor
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



Of course all the system plays that won straight up are big +juice on the moneyline and a continual theme these three years is people either playing the moneyline (perfectly fine and probably a good idea) or atleast tracking it and it has won plenty of cash all three seasons.  It just isn't personally how I bet or how I try to win money for numerous reasons but it has been a moneymaker and we have actually had a higher percentage of straight up winners this year than the previous two seasons as well so it definitely something to look at and consider moving forward. 

27 years ago, when I first met Howard Schwartz (owner, Gamblers Book Club, Las Vegas), Howard gave me this one sage piece of advice: just pick winners. That's it. Forget the number one way or the other, if one can pick who will win the game everything else will take care of itself. Throughout the years, that advice has served me well and provided me a living.
trim88
trim88
I've been making lots of UCD donations, and cashing in like a big dog. However, I understand your point. My donation is pissant chump change compared to the UCD payoffs I've received: ML wins of +260 to +700 over the last three tilts. At this point, I'm donating house money; that's a beautiful thing.
KineProfessor
KineProfessor
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:



I never feel great about any lineup or strategic changes this late in the season but does sound like a good idea.  You have to remember we are concerned with wins and losses (cal poly has lost three in a row), we are worried about whether they will cover or not (cal poly is 0-8 ats since late January while Davis is 7-1 ATS in the same time frame). 

To me, this is all about Davis and what type of effort we get from them in this "lost" season.  Although they are 1-13 on the road, they have covered the last three on the road.  Coming off the emotional senior night win against Fullerton, will we get their best effort on this last two game road trip when they literally have nothing to play for?  Its a one-unit play for me as it fits the system but nothing more than that.

Kine, I'm on UCD to win the game outright; the players have come around to Jim Les' system, their perimeter D is much improved, and, after so many straight losses, to the players this is a brand new season they just don't want to end. It's ugly to lose so many games in a row. Motivation won't be a factor in this one. These kids actually believe they can win this game. Just one more thing: on this date, UC Davis is just flat better than Cal Poly, period.
trim88
trim88
As silly as this sounds, UC Davis is +1362 against Cal Poly. Last week, UCD came in ML (around+800) against CS Fullerton. Fullerton has a better team than Cal Poly and, in fact, beat Cal Poly. Moreover, UCD has been lights-out in triples and has significantly improved it's perimeter D, as well as cutting down on turnovers. This 5-23 team actually believes it can win games.

Look, Kenpom gives UCD a 9% chance of winning this game. Ok, so be it. I see UCD as having a 25% chance of bringing home the bacon. That's more than enough to provide a rock-solid ML play, for short money, on UCD to win the game outright
JFen31
JFen31
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:




Kent State certainly should take care of CMU, but the Chipps are going to eventually play a game to their potential and I don't want to be on the opposite side when it inevitably happens. Kent State playing a second consecutive road game is enough to keep me away, but I'd lean their way if forced to pick a side.

I like Kent as an ML play based on CMU taking the rest of the year off...this usually manifests in a defensive collapse and few teams play "matador" defense better than CMU.

Kent, on the other hand, has good ball-handling skills and a real knack for driving the lane: a perfect answer to CMU's matador defense.

Naturally, I'm not about to lay that kind of ML juice without a two teamer to make things right. So, I'm also on NHL action with both tilts beginning at 7PM EST...so I can double my misery!!!!
TexasD
TexasD
I'll buy points if I'm on a dog as part of a parlay; I don't care about the math. This has been my living for 25 years and I live by three very important credos:

1. Pick winners.
2. Always chase the win; never chase the money.
3. You'll never go broke making a profit.
trim88
trim88
I've been doing this as a living since 1992, almost 19 years. I've suffered two gut-wrenching losses.
The first was a few years ago when Oakland blew a huge lead (10 runs?) to the Twins and lost.
The second was today, when the Blue Jays suffered two blown saves and had the Rays down to their last strike.
Funny, I never remember the miracle wins...and the losses just don't lose their sting.
Nevertheless, I'll dust my rear off, and get back on that horse. My Covers compadres would expect nothing less.

Let's get 'em gang.
hugh613
hugh613
Hey Hugh,

I play hockey totals a ton--95% of which are unders; I've done well.

I've spent the better part of the day wondering why these teams go off at near even when the over is played.

As I look more closely at the 5 dimes under 6.5 on each, I see where they're in the -160-180 range. Routinely, a 5.5 tilt would be around -200 to -235 at under 6.5.

My guess is the linemaker is looking at the smoking hot Bryzgalov and the sudden brilliance of Ray Emery. Too, CGY is not getting a lot of shots off. Finally, many believe that in the fight for a final playoff spot, the games with meaning will be close checking, no-risk, 2-1 affairs. Those are the UNDER arguments.

Still, I see both these games at OVER value, regardless of the month-long spate of NHL unders.

I'm going to parlay them both OVER. At a 3/1 payout, it just makes good sense versus the standard 12/5 payout.

Hope this rant helps! Let's get 'em!