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si1ly
si1ly
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:



Hopefully you missed yesterday.. that was a rushed and ill-advised wager on my part.  A reminder that there is a very fine line between being a gambler and an investor.  I crossed it, and it cost me money.

I had a 0.7 variance in the UNDER's favor yesterday.  Was too close for comfort even though I was leaning UNDER as well.  Too bad Philly scored that last run on a wild-pitch, as you probably would have squeezed out a victory.

Good luck today.  
bodio
bodio
Quote Originally Posted by bodio:

2011 MLB Record:
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units



2011 MLB Playoffs:
1 - 2 @ 0% for -1.20 Units

Mon 10/03

#1: Texas Rangers +118

#2: Detroit Tigers -125


Looks like Tigers didn't get the memo that NY "wanted it more" this game
bodio
bodio
Quote Originally Posted by composite:



QUOTE Originally Posted by bodio:

2011 MLB Record:
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units



2011 MLB Playoffs:
1 - 2 @ 0% for -1.20 Units

Mon 10/03

#2: Detroit Tigers -125

In the first game of this series I've backed CC and the Yankees at home. Of course the game got suspended to a later day and my wager was cancelled. Well today, I'm backing the Tigers with the same pitchers on the mound. The question is why? Is home-field really that important? In my opinion, yes it is. Check out Sabathia's last 3 starts in Detroit:

04/27/2009: 8 innings / 6 hits / 4 ER's / 1 HR / Result: Lost 4-2
05/13/2010: 6 innings / 9 hits / 6 ER's / 2 HR / Result: Lost 6-0
05/03/2011: 7 innints / 10 hits / 4 ER's / 0 HR / Result: Lost 4-2

It's safe to say that he's struggled a bit playing in Comerica Park. At the same time he's been much better against the Tigers when facing them in Yankee stadium. Is this just a 'random' fluctuation or is there something to it? Not sure as the sample size is pretty small. But what I do know is that the Tigers have had the 2nd best offense and the 4th best bullpen in the last 30 days of the season. Comparatively, Yankees' offense was 15th during this span and their bullpen ranked 28th (sure they didn't use some of their best relievers in a couple of games during the stretch). That's part of the reason why New York had twice as many losses than the Tigers in the month of September (12 to 6). I like Detroit's chances in this home game behind Verlander.

Good luck!

 
Last month you vehemently argued that 30 ABs against one pitcher (Capuano of the NYMs) was too small of a sample size to determine whether the StL Cards bats (Pujols, Berkman, etc.) had an edge on him.
 
Now you're saying that 3 games @ Comerica - over a 3 year stretch - may be sufficient to determine that CC pitches poorly there? 
 
Sounds like someone's using any argument to get the warm, fuzzy feeling to support the Tigers over the Yanks.
 
BTW, you were right. I agree that NYY were trying hard to beat the Rays those last 3 games.
 
I'm on the Tigers this game, so BOL to you. But I was also on the Tigers in G1.

 
Last month you vehemently argued that 30 ABs against one pitcher (Capuano of the NYMs) was too small of a sample size to determine whether the StL Cards bats (Pujols, Berkman, etc.) had an edge on him.
 
Now you're saying that 3 games @ Comerica - over a 3 year stretch - may be sufficient to determine that CC pitches poorly there? 
 
Sounds like someone's using any argument to get the warm, fuzzy feeling to support the Tigers over the Yanks.
 
BTW, you were right. I agree that NYY were trying hard to beat the Rays those last 3 games.
 
I'm on the Tigers this game, so BOL to you. But I was also on the Tigers in G1.




What?!?  Did you miss the part where I said that the 'sample size is small' and nothing can truly be determined from it?  This is the reason for the play:

But what I do know is that the Tigers have had the 2nd best offense and the 4th best bullpen in the last 30 days of the season. Comparatively, Yankees' offense was 15th during this span and their bullpen ranked 28th (sure they didn't use some of their best relievers in a couple of games during the stretch). That's part of the reason why New York had twice as many losses than the Tigers in the month of September (12 to 6). I like Detroit's chances in this home game behind Verlander.

Next time read, think, than think some more prior to responding.  Thanks.

bodio
bodio
Quote Originally Posted by JMAG:



Line moved to 8.

like the under
bodio
bodio
Quote Originally Posted by Monkeybongos:

First sellout for TB this season since opening day.
Lewis better be lights out to silence what will be
a very loud, supportive crowd.  TB's offense right now is much
different (better) than it was all season.  Will be hard for
anyone to shut them down the way they are swinging the bats.

You are as good as anyone on here, bod, but wondering
if you're "out of step" on this series.  Expect Price to be sharper
than Shields was Saturday.  (btw, posted general thoughts on the Rays in your Sat thread).   Keep doin' what your doin'...mb

didn't have a chance to check any threads this weekend -- very busy.  What are your general thoughts on Rays? 
bodio
bodio
Quote Originally Posted by Yank_my_sox:

What's up bodio..... I'm not liking verlanders record with that ump behind the plate bro... I'm rolling with the yanks

What's his record, who were the opponents, what dates, and where did those games take place? 
bodio
bodio
Quote Originally Posted by redemption2012:

How can you stay disclipline bodio ? If you dont like the game your passing on but gamblers like us cant really escape the MNF deadzone

The amount of $$ I wager is very substantial for me.  That's why I treat this as an investment and not 'gambling'.  Helps pass on 50/50 games.  If you want to 'gamble', then throw a small bet on the MNF game for some 'action'. 
bodio
bodio
Quote Originally Posted by Qncyk1:

we're not supposed to play emotions anyway, right?

i'm tailing.

scary to think if nyy loses tonight that their playoff chances ride on burnett on the road.


You can play 'emotions' if you want, but to say that one team wants it more than another is just ludicrous.  
bodio
bodio
Quote Originally Posted by CRS:

Bodio question concerning your units and earnings: I assume you are playing 1,000 per unit based on your figures of + 27.81 units. So all your plays are for 1 unit right? Your average loser is around -112 on the average. Am i fairly close? I'm questiong because i never noticed any different wagering amounts when you post the plays, Thanks alot

Correct
I flat-bet.  

bodio
bodio
Quote Originally Posted by underDOGGIE:

What about verlanders numbers in the playoffs and his number with this umpire behind the plate? They don't worry you? As cc has outstanding numbers with this umpire! Or you dint really look at those numbers?

I don't handicap umpires 
bodio
bodio
Quote Originally Posted by afgking4life:

Nice picks Bodio, agree with the Rangers pick.

Where do you get these stats from, for example: team rankings versus left/right handed pitchers....

Any MNF picks also ?

fangraphs
Passing on MNF
bodio
bodio
Quote Originally Posted by MojoGypson:

with you on TEX over TB. 
Ranger offense is too strong and getting TEX at +$$- I'll take it.

Taking NYY over DET.
even though CC ended the season a bit shaky.
Verlander defiantly worries me, so I'm banking on CC stepping up.
If CC brings his A game- IMO- this turns into a pick-um and I went with the +$
With Burnett scheduled  game 4- Yanks will want to get this one tonight.

GL!


And Tigers just don't want it tonight eh?
So because Tigers have Porcello in game 4, they don't want to win game 3.  Very interesting... 
bodio
bodio
Quote Originally Posted by kRaZeEpLaYa:

GL Bodio...like the stat of Texas having the 3rd best offensive team vs lefties. be tailing both plays since I was leaning Det and Verlander in game 1 with these pitchers.

Any Monday night football action?

no.  Passing on the MNF game.
bodio
bodio
Quote Originally Posted by LTE23:

Tigers line is dropping. I wonder who has more pressure big bucks CC or Verlander with his crazy success this year to lead his team to a Victory when it counts.

Det bullpen scares me with how they are so up and down. best of luck. do u have any stats on the bullpens.

3.48 xFIP in September/October for Tigers compared to 4.38 for Yankees. Tigers' pen is in pretty good form right now. 
bodio
bodio
Quote Originally Posted by JMAG:

Hey Bodio, which way do you lean on the Rays/Rangers OVER/UNDER?

UNDER would be a play at 8.  Pass at 7.5
bodio
bodio
2011 MLB Record:
201 - 155 @ 56% for +27.81 Units



2011 MLB Playoffs:
1 - 2 @ 0% for -1.20 Units

Mon 10/03

#1: Texas Rangers +118

I like the way Colby Lewis has pitched lately. For the month of September his xFIP is 3.59, lowest of any months this year with a 3.63 K/BB ratio. In his last 2 starts against the Rays he's allowed 6 hits and 0 ER's in 13 innings of work. Against a Rays lineup which is average against 'right-handed' pitchers, there is no reason not to think that Lewis can't be sharp again in this outing. Opposite Lewis is Price, who has been struggling a bit lately. His xFIP of 3.74 in September is still pretty solid but his 2.13 K/BB ratio is the lowest this year and 4.28 BB/9 is pretty troubling. In Price's last 2 starts he's allowed 11 runs (7 ER's but the rest were due to HIS errors) on 10 hits with 3 HR's. He'll be facing a Rangers team against which he is 0-5 in his career with a 5.48 ERA and 1.4 WHIP. Rangers are the 3rd best offensive team against lefties and I see them having success against Price tonight. Rangers are the play.

#2: Detroit Tigers -125

In the first game of this series I've backed CC and the Yankees at home. Of course the game got suspended to a later day and my wager was cancelled. Well today, I'm backing the Tigers with the same pitchers on the mound. The question is why? Is home-field really that important? In my opinion, yes it is. Check out Sabathia's last 3 starts in Detroit:

04/27/2009: 8 innings / 6 hits / 4 ER's / 1 HR / Result: Lost 4-2
05/13/2010: 6 innings / 9 hits / 6 ER's / 2 HR / Result: Lost 6-0
05/03/2011: 7 innints / 10 hits / 4 ER's / 0 HR / Result: Lost 4-2

It's safe to say that he's struggled a bit playing in Comerica Park. At the same time he's been much better against the Tigers when facing them in Yankee stadium. Is this just a 'random' fluctuation or is there something to it? Not sure as the sample size is pretty small. But what I do know is that the Tigers have had the 2nd best offense and the 4th best bullpen in the last 30 days of the season. Comparatively, Yankees' offense was 15th during this span and their bullpen ranked 28th (sure they didn't use some of their best relievers in a couple of games during the stretch). That's part of the reason why New York had twice as many losses than the Tigers in the month of September (12 to 6). I like Detroit's chances in this home game behind Verlander.

Good luck!



=========================================
Updated records:

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

'11 MLB: 201 -155 @ 56% for +$27,810
----------------------------------------------------

TOTAL: 616-432 @ 59% for +$135,390

_________________
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
bodio
bodio
Action Parlay:  Brewers ML / Saints ML:  +105 combined odds

Good luck
bodio
bodio
2011-2012 NFL Record:
6 - 11 @ 35% for -6.1 Units




Week 4

#1: Minnesota Vikings -2
#2: Washington Redskins -2
#3: Buffalo Bills -3
#4: New Orleans Saints -6.5
#5: OVER 39.5 MIN/KC


Good luck fellas.


Updated records:

'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
'10 NBA: 151-99 @ 60% for +$42,100
'10 NBAP: 30-26 @ 54% for +$1,400
'10 NHL: 18-9 @ 67% for +$6,175
'10 NHLP: 16-7 @ 70% for +$5,575

'11 MLB: 201 -155 @ 56% for +$27,810
-----------------------------------------------

TOTAL: 616-432 @ 59% for +$135,390

_________________
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned"
bodio
bodio
2011-2012 NCAAF Record:
1 - 5 @ 17% for -4.5 Units




Week 5

#1: Virginia Tech -7
#2: Wisconsin -10
#3: Stanford -22


Good luck!

bodio
bodio
Fellas,  I won't be around at all today.  My best friend is getting married and I'm standing up to the wedding.  Actually have to start getting ready NOW!  good luck with your plays today and kick some ass!


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