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vegasrebel417
vegasrebel417

Quote Originally Posted by TUNA_SANDWHICH:

Read an article last year that said -5.5 was the most difficult spread for a fav to cover historically... article went on to say that when the spread closes at -5.5 and the dog covers the dog wins outright 83% of the time and suggested taking the moneyline instead everytime you like the points in this situation ..  I think there might be some truth behind this concept as a whole...trying to find the literature now because even though that’s a little off topic of your question the whole article kind of got into this topic

I can't articulate why but that makes a lot of sense.

vegasrebel417
vegasrebel417

Thanks Van!

I found the link which sparked my original thought in the first place.

 

[https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/bet-nfl-spread-2-5-buy-half-point-take-moneyline/]

vegasrebel417
vegasrebel417

Is there any literature out there comparing when it's better to take the moneyline on a dog versus the points?

The only article I saw made a compelling argument for dogs on the moneyline when the number is 2.5 and 3.

vanzack
vanzack

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

It will be very interesting to see the effect of legalized sports wagering on lines for the home teams that have sports gambling. Jets, Giants, Eagles, and Raiders. Anyone think the rest of the country will see some skewed lines because of this?

Reno I believe is usually a half point shaded towards the Niners compared to Vegas.

I'd have to imagine if there is any sharp action they will take the opponent more often than not if there is value.

vanzack
vanzack

Any thoughts on Belgium?

I_Need_A_Detox
I_Need_A_Detox
Laurel
vegasrebel417
vegasrebel417

Grabbed Kansas +5.5 for the game small but Nova (Even) to win it all.

 

an_cheers

vegasrebel417
vegasrebel417

Purdue -125

Nevada -125

 

Looking at Nova as well an_cheers 

DoubleUp4Life
DoubleUp4Life

Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:

Thank you, my much respected long time Brother Also appreciate you keeping the little piss pots in check around here.. Many of them are like 9 yr olds all sugared up with no guardians in sight....Bowl seasom delivers them straight from chuckie cheese Best of Luck Brother Sweep your board HAPPY NEW YEAR

 

Happy New Year!

 

BTW Who you on for the playoffs? I remember you liked Oklahoma. Couldn't find your pick for the other game. 

 

BOL

vegasrebel417
vegasrebel417

Sooners +1 (-105)

Tigers +2.5 (-105)

 

Best of luck everyone!

DoubleUp4Life
DoubleUp4Life
BOL Double Up! 
DoubleUp4Life
DoubleUp4Life
Can't wait. Agree no Buckeyes too. The 2nd loss should doom any team. 
JEFFMARKETCAP
JEFFMARKETCAP
https://www.charitynavigator.org/
DoubleUp4Life
DoubleUp4Life
Getting back on track this weekend, BOL! 

Tailing on Fresno State. 
DoubleUp4Life
DoubleUp4Life

Get em next time brother.
DoubleUp4Life
DoubleUp4Life
Wild line movement on Tulsa, any ideas?
DoubleUp4Life
DoubleUp4Life
Always check for your thoughts BOL 
vegasrebel417
vegasrebel417
Good article, can't make up my mind myself.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/story.cfm/story/1875174
phishfannola
phishfannola
McGregor +375
Mayweather -500 

Westgate today

I want to say Floyd was -700/-750 a couple days ago there.
Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan
He had some great gambling stories. I wish Covers did an interview with him and asked him about sports betting.