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Thread Author Alien-1 Post Entries
Alien-1
Alien-1
Pick Giants +3  Rated 2**
Alien-1
Alien-1

Pick Denver ml rated 5

Alien-1
Alien-1
Pick Atlanta -6  Rated 2**
Alien-1
Alien-1
Pick San Diego State +5  Rated 2**
Alien-1
Alien-1
Nebraska -10    Rated 2**
Alien-1
Alien-1
Pick WF +7    Rated 2**
smdavis2003
smdavis2003
Bravo Tuna 
You are absolutely correct on every aspect. I have had this conversation numerous times here on covers....  my latest being an abbreviated version. im just too plain lazy to type everything you just mentioned.
Well done.

smdavis2003
smdavis2003
Quote Originally Posted by smdavis2003:

You guys can laugh all you want. But don't come complaining when all you A's backers lose out on the easiest trap game ever.

 

It's a system I've always used. Does it work 100% of the time? Hell no. I'm not saying vegas knows, but they know better than we do. They do their research like we do. They see things we don't know. They have systems and people we don't. So when you see something crazy like that. A line that drops when 93% of the betters are on it, it makes you think twice. Why is Vegas dropping that line? Sure as well aren't dropping it to make people bet on the O's. They are dropping it to make the A's more attractive.

Wow...


You're over thinking everything man. Vegas doesn't know anything more than anyone else. 
smdavis2003
smdavis2003
Outside of the federal govt. , they only other faction with a license to print money is a casino; with its slot machines 
smdavis2003
smdavis2003
Look at the giant hotels and casinos in Vegas......they were ALL built with revenue generated from SLOT MACHINES
smdavis2003
smdavis2003
And by the way....SLOT MACHINES are what built vegas. Not the sports books. Some books are a liability to the botom line. 
Yeah thats right...a liability.
smdavis2003
smdavis2003
When i say to people ...Vegas is a business. Businesses are NOT built built  by gambling money. 
....people look at me perplexed.

But that is exactly it. Sports betting is based on vig. Vegas has no god d a m n idea whos gonna win a certain game. They just strive for equal action(moneywise) on each side and then collect the vig. Its not rocket science but many people think it is.
smdavis2003
smdavis2003
The only factor, and i mean ONLY factor that moves a line is money....nothing else. Books are trying to attract equal action on both sides. Period. Books are not in the business of gambling...they leave that up to us bettors. They have no idea whos going to cover ATS. They dont want to be too exposed on either side of a game so they try and  balance it out as much as possible by moving the number or adjusting the vig.
smdavis2003
smdavis2003
Paying too much attention to line movement is a waste of time. Bottom line is if you're going to arrive at a selection primarily based upon how a line moves and what percentage of bettors are on a particular side.....you will not be successful long term.
Try it. 
Experience is a very wise/harsh teacher.  

Alien-1
Alien-1
NFL Betting / Rams vs Raiders / View Post
Pick Raiders +6  Rated 2**
Alien-1
Alien-1
Quote Originally Posted by Macwestie1:

Wazuuuup my fellow Canuckian GL Alien-1

Cheers Mac
Alien-1
Alien-1
Quote Originally Posted by Ikid2groove035:

1 game long football season - nobody expected stafford 2 be this bad and terrible special teams 


Exactly...Stafford has been god awful...special teams horrendous
Alien-1
Alien-1
Quote Originally Posted by Ikid2groove035:

I think lions going killed the jets tonight -Study both this 2 teams o-line and d-line and the lions have a tremendous edge 


Yup....

There's a team getting killed alright but it aint the Jets
blackHIPPY
blackHIPPY
Quote Originally Posted by mugz:

If the nfl wants to build Sam than yes. If it’s a fairly officiated game than no chance. Sam Darnold is not starting quarterback caliber. He just isn’t and probably won’t ever be. His mechanics are horrible and he seems a little slow in the head. You could see it when he faced descent defenses  in college which is why he turned it over so much. Can’t read defense and takes way too long to deliver. If he has time to chug one deep to Pryor, Anderson or one of their pass friendly tight ends, hmm maybe he’ll get a few big scores.


How do you know he isnt.......he hasnt started a single reg season game yet. Give em a chance for godsake
Macwestie1
Macwestie1
With you on the Jets Mac.....