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Thread Author fsumavila Post Entries
fsumavila
fsumavila
ouch. I had forgotten about NC State-UNC ...that one must've hurt.
That Idaho game was pretty ridiculous, too...


fsumavila
fsumavila
I'm sure someone else has started this thread somewhere else in this forum, but I'm too lazy to look for it. so I'm starting another thread here..

Seems this year has seen an inordinate amount of visits from the dreaded 'MOOSE.'
Yesterday, it happened to FSU backers (like yours truly) in the final seconds of the Maryland game, when Noles coach Jimbo Fisher decided to keep handing the effin' ball off instead of taking a knee (I can only hope high-ranking FSU boosters who got burned, get in Jimbo's ear at the weekly Coaches breakfast in Tally).

Anyway, I'd like to compile a list of the season's Top 10 Worst Bad Beats. That FSU one was pretty painful, so I'm nominating that one...

Anyone else?

nc1capper
nc1capper
I'm with you on penn st. - got 'em +8 ...i'm playing a little on the ML..
also like your Nwestern play..

BOL today
fsumavila
fsumavila
Morning...

Early games I'm on:

GA Tech -8
Don't care how good Marylands defense has played, with a LB playing QB I think the D wears down as game goes on and Paul Johnson's offense pounds ém into submission. 

Houston/East Carolina over 69.5

Bad defenses and good offenses = mucho points

Miss St +7
I like Johnny Football but ill take the bulldogs at home catching a TD. May also play this on the ML


Later games I like:

Oregon -8 & over 70


BOL to everyone
SEMINOLESCOTT
SEMINOLESCOTT
as you can see from my name, I'm a Seminole. And while the talent disparity between the two teams is greater than it's been since Miami was crippled by sanctions in the mid-90s, I think it's too many points to lay at home in a big rivalry.

And make no mistake this is still a rivalry. And as ScottyUSN pointed out, Morris can air it out. And while Dorsett can't catch a cold, there are playmakers on the Hurricanes' sideline.

I rarely bet FSU games -- unless it's to fade them when they lay a lot of points on the road. They don't do well in those situations - NC State, ahem..

I'll be avoiding this game unless it's to play the Over.


fsumavila
fsumavila
sun: 2-1 (posted picks)
season record: 9-7

Time to wrap up Week 6 with a classic AFL matchup.

the pick -

BRONCOS PK

tempted to go with the Chargers as I think their defense is solid. Also, Rivers and Ryan Mathews are slowly getting that offense in gear.

But Peyton has the Denver offense in step & I think they'll go full-throttle tonight. There are few bets in sports that have been as reliable as peyton manning in a prime time game. While he's certainly not 'Peyton in his prime,' it's obvious he still has plenty left in the tank. I think the Broncos pull out a high-scoring affair under the lights..

BOL to everyone out there...



fsumavila
fsumavila
 Thanks fellas..that was one wacky Sunday!  good to come out with a winning record again... if only the damn Rams kicker hadn't missed 3 FGs!!

fsumavila
fsumavila
forgot to post my record ...
last week: 2-1 on posted picks.
Season to Date: 7-6

fsumavila
fsumavila
greetings all,

working this sunday morning so a quick post with my early picks:

Oak +11 -
going to roll the dice w/the heavy points & say the Raiders put up respectable showing vs a team that's been lucky a couple times. Don't think the Falcons are as dominant as their record indicates.

Mia/StL Over 37.5 -
TAneyhill's going to put it up 35-40 times in this game, and I think Bradford will follow suit. I see a 21-20-ish game here.

Jets - 3 -
taking a flyer on a NYJ team that is DESPERATE for a win. plus, how can the Colts NOT be a bit flat after that incredibly emotional victory last week? this is a young team, prone to ups and downs, and they don't even have a good running game, which is the major weakness for the Jets Defense.

good luck!


fsumavila
fsumavila
Happy Sunday....

still trying to shake off the sting of seeing my Seminoles throw away their national title dreams with a terrible loss at NC State

anyway, on to the Pro picks. I went 2-2 last week in posted plays. Here's what I like today:

Titans +5.5. & ML -
With Hasselback under center, I think the Titans can not only cover but win SU against an improving but still just-average Vikings team.

Miami +3.5 -
Another road dog I think could win SU. Miami's D is good enough to give Cincy some trouble, and we all know the Bengals can't stop anyone through the air. Taneyhill's going to air it out again, and somehow, brian Hartline will find a way to get open and make his fantasy owners very happy.

Patriots -6.5 -
I think the Patriots will once again light up the Broncos. Belichick & Co. seem to know exactly how to get the Broncos to play into their defensive schemes.
A word of warning with this pick: Last time I picked against Peyton & Denver, he destroyed Oakland

Good luck!

fsumavila
fsumavila
2-1 early...Thanks Arkansas & Indiana ...
Wish Northwestern wouldn't have choked on the high hard one in the 4Q. What are you gonna do...

Tonight, I'm on:

Miami +14.5
I don't care how good the Irish D has looked so far, I don't think they can cover Miami's playmakers. This is a huge # for a team that has the quick-strike scoring ability the Canes have. Gladly taking the points.

NC State +17
I'm a diehard Seminole, but even I recognize a good bet-against opportunity. It's a huge number for FSU to cover on the road, which they've had a problem doing the past few years. I feel guilty betting against my Noles, and it'll serve me right if they go and hang 50 on the Wolfpack, but I see this as a closer ballgame.

Oregon -24 (bought 1/2 pt)
no way the Huskies can keep pace here. I think Oregon pulls away in the 3Q and easily covers this number. they have a bye next week so they won't be looking ahead, and Washington has to be feeling a little content after their upset of Stanford last week.

Good luck!
PineappleXpress
PineappleXpress
good LORD, you are on fire today! Well done... i'll gladly tail your Nevada play
fsumavila
fsumavila
greetings from the Aria sports book. Enjoying my 1st visit to Vegas this football season.

Had a great week with college ball. Hit my 2 totals picks (Wake/Duke & WVA/Baylor), plus several other games I posted on my Twitter feed (@SpreadsheetMike for those interested)...hoping the good times keep rolling.

Early games I'm on:

Arkansas +7.5 - Should Auburn be laying this many points to anyone? I know the Razorbacks have rolled over the past few games, but I'm gonna roll the dice that the team will see an opportunity to salvage their season a bit against a team that isn't very good.

Northwestern +3 -
Know all about their lousy October record, but Fitz has 'em rolling right now. I think they can win this straight up.

Indiana +14.5 -
I'll take the home team with the fat line against the inconsistent Spartans.

Good luck to everyone...

see you later for the afternoon picks.


fsumavila
fsumavila
well, as Meatloaf once sang, '2 outta 3 ain't bad' ...

couldn't have been more wrong on a game and a team than I was on the Jets, but the Pats & Chargers/Chiefs Over ca$hed ...

TONIGHT, I'm taking the Giants +1. I know some others have a better # but frankly, I don't think it matters. The G-Men are the better team here. and since they seem to play better on the road, I think they'll handle the Eagles.

BOL...
fsumavila
fsumavila
afternoon ladies & gents,

hoping to follow up a good day with NCAA picks with a strong showing on the pro side.

Today's Picks:

Jets + 4:

 to borrow from the Sports Guy, the 'Nobody Believes In Us' theory applies perfectly to the Jets today. No one gives them a chance in hell to beat the 49ers. Here's the thing: SF isn't all that. Good, solid team, but far from great. Vikings showed they have some issues. I'll take the points with a desperate home team.

Pats -3 (bought hook):
They flat-out OWN the Bills in Buffalo (7-1 ATS last 8 meetings there). Last year they lost because Brady had a horrible game. Who wants to put $ on him having another stinker today, coming off 2 consecutive losses?? I don't. I know Mankins is out, but I think Belichick will have his team ready to play...and besides, the 2-headed RB monster of FJax/CJ Spiller is banged up. I don't think either will be 100%  (which stinks for a couple of my fantasy teams, but whatever...)

Chargers/Chiefs Over 44:

KC has some offensive firepower, especially with Jamaal Charles forcing Defenses to respect the run. I think that will help the passing game. On the other side, the CHiefs defense leaves much to be desired, and after the stinker last week vs Atlanta, Norv Turner and Philip Rivers should be zeroed in on getting back on track.

Early Leans: Vikes/Lions Over, Seattle/ST Louis UNder...

BOL, everyone

fsumavila
fsumavila
Don't know if I've ever hit an easier over than that WVA/Baylor game ....
fsumavila
fsumavila
off to take the daughter to burn off some energy in the park, so no time to write things up too in depth...

2 quick picks...

Duke/Wake Forest Over 60 -- think this will be a high-scoring affair...

WVA/Baylor Over 82 -- think this total will keep rising before kickoff, but I see a 55-35 type ballgame with the Mountaineers routing the Bears. Just don't see how they stop Geno Smith...and then the garbage-time points will pile up..

GL to all...


fsumavila
fsumavila
Haven't been posting much on NCAA this season. I like Washington tonight +7 -- I'm not totally convinced that Stanford's all that. Sure, they're 3-0, but other than USC, they haven't beaten anyone. And while USC is good, it's apparent they're not the world-beaters the preseason hypesters made them out to be.
I like the Huskies to use the home crowd to their advantage and keep it close...maybe even win straight up.


fsumavila
fsumavila
been struggling to get a handle on NCAA games through the 1st 2 weeks.

A few I like so far:

Ohio St -17 - This Cal team sucks. no other way to say it. if Tedford didn't have such a costly deal, I imagine the Bears would be looking to make a change at the top. As it is, they have to play an early game at a hostile environment, against a much more talented team finding its groove. With no bowl to play for, all Urban Meyer has is the idea of sending a message to everyone that next year, the Buckeyes will be a force. Games like this will help him send that message.

Vtech -10:
another play on a tough team playing against a really bad team. this Pitt squad just doesn't have a lot of talent. Their best player is graham, and why wouldn't the Hokies just stack the box against him. Sunseri is terrible. I know VTech has a history of laying an egg in not-so-obvious situations, but i'll gamble this isn't the spot.

Northwestern/Boston College Over 53 -
both teams have shown the ability to put up points, and the inability to stop others from scoring.


Have some other games I like that I'll post later. on the way to Atlantic City with the wifey for the night to press my luck with the cards.

BOL everyone...


fsumavila
fsumavila
3-3 (inc. 2H plays)

Tonight:

Bears/Packers Over 50.5

Packers defense looks weaker than it did last season. Don't think that's an overreaction to week 1; Same issues we saw last season are still there.

The big concern is how out of sync their offense was. I"m going to lay most of the credit for that on the 49ers D, which is the real deal. Certainly helps to return your entire defense from your previous season. Continuity like that is huge in today's NFL.

Anyway, I see the newly-potent Bears offense capable of putting up points on the Packers. And I don't see Rodgers struggling like he did last week, even without Jennings.

BOL to everyone...

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