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Thread Author JFen31 Post Entries
ILoveCover88
ILoveCover88
Completely flukish and a result of an entirely unsustainable 4.8% HR/FB ratio. 

Nothing is different in the profile. He's throwing the same mix of pitches with identical velocity. 

Regression should be in order.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/landing.php?player=448306&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=year&startDate=03/31/2017&endDate=06/02/2018&s_type=2
ChrisCovers
ChrisCovers
This site remains the only place that uses "Villy" or "Villa."

It's Villanova or Nova. Quite simple, really. 
lmb4321
lmb4321
+800 is lousy value. You're better served betting the ML against Michigan and rolling over your winnings vs. Nova/Kansas.

Your average ML for Loyola against Michigan is +225. Say you bet 1u to win 2.25u. Then, depending on Nova/Kansas outcome, you can roll over your 2.25u + 1u original bet.

Projected spread vs. Kansas is 7/7.5. Loyola ML there would be around +300. Roll over your 3.25u to win 9.75u. That's a better value than the +800 presently offered as a future. 

Projected spread vs. Nova is 12/12.5. Loyola ML there would be around +550. Roll over your 3.25u to win 17.8u. Again, that's a significantly better value than betting the +800 future.

Good luck.






sportswagers
sportswagers
Quote Originally Posted by El_Terrible:


Oh really? I don't know what the hell youre talking about. I don't watch Tv or listen to radio..And I thought Allen wasn't anything before the game started yesterday



I'm not going to punch down here, but by all means feel free to wear your objectively misinformed take as a badge of honor. 
sportswagers
sportswagers
It's unfortunate what the hot take industry has done to sports discussion.

If that last shot in regulation rolls in - rather than skimming every inch of the rim - Grayson is deemed a hero and his shot is replayed for the next three decades.

Instead, it inexplicably rolls off the rim, and you get reactionary blowhards in threads like this one blaming him for losing the game. 




Joke77
Joke77
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

JFen

Look for the St. Joes logo. He doesn't post picks, but when he does make a comment don't ignore it

Thanks for the kind words, Sac. I still peruse the forum on occasion, as despite all of the BS there's still some quality folks here.

I did some writing for a bunch of 1st round games here:

https://dictatethepace.wordpress.com/2018/03/12/round-1-notes/
realscififan
realscififan
Nice to see some good totals discussion here.

Got some concerns with UNCG/Gonzaga...

As was widely expected, the Committee again disregarded its latest vow to incorporate advanced metrics into the seeding process. It is the opinion of this writer that Gonzaga is the most egregiously seeded team in the field (other than perhaps Butler and URI). Of course, not only should the Zags be on the 2-line, but they drew an unorthodox and difficult 13 seed. Surely Mark Few would prefer to see Marshall or Charleston, both of whom the Zags would likely boatrace. Instead, it’ll be UNCG in a 10:30 A.M. PST tip-off. 

Both teams have a 9-day layoff between games. The variable most affected by long layoffs tends to be jump shooting, a concern compounded by an early start time for the Zags and an opponent that plays a style the Zags haven’t seen all season. UNCG extends full-court pressure at a 40.4% rate, the second-highest mark in the country (#1 is Portland State). The Spartans then fall back into a high-pressure matchup zone anchored by freakish shotblocker James Dickey (10.2% block rate). 

It’s worth emphasizing that Gonzaga legitimately never sees full-court pressure, having spent the previous 2+ months exclusively against WCC competition. Among WCC teams, only Loyola Marymount utilizes any form of full-court pressure (15.5%). Everyone else is 3% or less. Can the Zags handle it? Likely. However, it’s probably not going to be seamless. I hesitate to draw a comparison here, but the only relevant point of reference in evaluating Gonzaga against full-court pressure is the December 5th matchup versus Villanova. Like UNCG, Nova deploys its zone press as more of a “nuisance” than an in-your-grill Press Virginia/40 Minutes of Hell iteration. GU struggled mightily in the Nova game, coughing up the ball 19 times on 72 possessions. Further, UNCG is the best transition defense in the country (0.792 ppp allowed), a byproduct of the zone press forcing teams to eat up clock bringing the ball up the floor. Perhaps my worries about Gonzaga’s press offense will be allayed early…or not.

There’s no such concern for the Gonzaga defense. UNCG’s offense is a mediocre outfit that relies heavily on freeing up Francis Alonso for threes via a dizzying array of screens, and then relentlessly crashing the offensive glass to clean up misses. That’s almost certainly not going to work against Gonzaga, with defensive ace Silas Melson likely to chase Alonso around for most of the game, with help from long-armed athletes like Zach Norvell and Rui Hachimura. Only 9/351 teams score 10% or more of their points directly from off-ball screens (i.e. not pick and roll or pick and pop) – UNCG is one of them, but the Zags grade out in the 89th percentile in defending off screens. Further, The Zags are exceedingly unlikely to allow second-chance points (#11/351 defensive rebound rate) and they’re more athletic around the rim than last year’s stellar interior defense.

This is a really interesting game with a bunch of intriguing matchups. Barring some incredible perimeter shooting, I’m hard-pressed to see the UNCG offense having any success against the Zags. Conversely, don’t be shocked if it takes some time for GU to acclimate to a unique and sight-unseen UNCG press/matchup zone combo.

buffer
buffer
Hartford, not Harvard.

Good grief...


Rickey
Rickey
KenPom/oddsmakers power rankings have Kansas as a 3 seed rather than a 1 seed. The Jayhawks adjusted efficiency margin (+23.24), the primary metric used to set lines, is NINE points lower than Virginia's (+32.15) and EIGHT lower than Villanova's (+31.41). 

In fact, even "4th seed" Gonzaga has a higher adjusted efficiency margin than the Jayhawks (+24.74). 

Kansas' overseeding relative to oddsmakers' power rankings coincides with Penn being laughably underseeded as a 16 seed. The Quakers are ranked #127, a full 38 spots ahead of 15 seed Lipscomb and 188(!!) spots ahead of fellow 16 seed NC Central.

Penn is the highest-ranked 16 seed in the last six seasons. This is not your typical 1/16 game, whereas UMBC/Virginia certainly fits the profile. 

Hope this helps.

hillardoh1
hillardoh1
Wouldn't worry about the cut-and-paste job. There isn't any useful info in there anyway. "Team A beat Team B twice and both teams will try hard and give it their all."

There's 1000 places to find actual, useful info. 
jflydaddy
jflydaddy
Wow, big if true...
bullshark
bullshark
Been happening consistently the last few days. In previous years, the books accounted for tournament time by deliberately opening totals a few points below where they would otherwise be. Oddly, this year, they've stopped shorting the number and aren't making any adjustments despite years of data that suggests conference tournament games average fewer points than regular season games.

Naturally, some sharper folks have taken notice, and are hammering down these inflated openers...
Meathook13
Meathook13
Senior Day/Night is often more detrimental than helpful. Players are surrounded by family and friends and the mood can be more melancholy than motivating. 

Idaho has its Senior Night tonight featuring a class that helped revitalize the program. They're locked into the #2 seed next week in Reno, but just lost Perrion Callandret for the season. Decent spot for a letdown against a Big Sky bottomfeeder, albeit one with some talent (Aytes a BYU transfer and Morgan a UNLV transfer). 

sportswagers
sportswagers
Quote Originally Posted by sportswagers:

I didnt watch lot of Virginia games.. but whatever 4-5 games I watched, they struggled a lot to get point.. Defense is the only reason they are winning.

Come last 4 time, they will be the first to go out IMO.


They play the fewest possessions per game in the country at 59.1. You can't quantify a particular offense or defense without accounting for tempo..


sportswagers
sportswagers
I don't know in what world the Virginia offense is "bad."

They're #37/351 in adjusted offensive efficiency. 

We gotta stop using non-tempo based stats. They're useless...
strippersnbens
strippersnbens
Likely opens -10.5/11. 
buffer
buffer
Rockets are assured of Top 4 seed next week and there's little to play for here. Toledo one of the worst ball screen defenses in the country, and that's death against cat-quick Eugene German (30 pts in the first meeting). Rockets grade out, per Synergy, in the 9th percentile in ball screen defense. NIU grades out in the 96th percentile in ball screen offense. That was a huge issue in the first game @ Toledo.

Technically Toledo is playing to "win" the MAC West, but that means nothing for seeding purposes next week in Cleveland...
Gamebreaker23
Gamebreaker23
You made 27 plays on a 23-game slate. That's asinine in every sense of the word.

"I think there's gonna be a lot of overs today" is not analysis. It's a baseless fart noise emanating from your mouth.

You've never kept an accurate record, for reasons apparent to everyone.

The level of delusion in your threads is consistently astounding. If you were serious about doing this professionally, you would limit your plays, keep detailed records (success rates on spreads vs. totals, faves vs. underdogs, etc...), listen to advice given you by experienced cappers, and immerse yourself in learning everything possible about these teams. 

You're fooling yourself with this charade. 
Dickey227
Dickey227
Quote Originally Posted by Dickey227:

Win 2 gms in big10 they will get consideration

Look at the bracket, man.

"Win two games" likely involves beating Michigan and Michigan State in consecutive days. That's a helluva tall task. 
Dickey227
Dickey227
Prior to today's game, they were listed in one (1) of the 79 brackets on BracketMatrix. 

Doesn't help that they won't play until Friday, (presumably) against 5-seed Michigan in the quarters. They'll be a 6-7 point underdog in that game despite being the higher seed.

It's a serious longshot...