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Thread Author canadaguy_25 Post Entries
Christian_iaco
Christian_iaco
The line will be Nova -13
LNU
LNU
MLB Betting / Blown Leads / View Post
I hear ya. I had the Angels ml and the under 5 for the first 5. They are up 2-0 in the bottom of the 5th, looking like a nice easy double win. But no. Texas has a 4 run 5th inning to make me lose both bets. I was also on Arizona and Philadelphia who both capped the bed. Just an unbelievably bad day.
canadaguy_25
canadaguy_25
Wow! They really made me sweat that one out but it doesn't matter at the end of the day!
canadaguy_25
canadaguy_25
That 3 run shot doesn't look good but there's still hope!
canadaguy_25
canadaguy_25
A Homer on the first pitch of the game. Lol not a great start but it's nine innings and I didn't expect a perfect game.
canadaguy_25
canadaguy_25
Why are you still arguing? It will be a warm night but will likely have little if any effect on the game. Debate ended. Are we here to win money or argue about semantics and meteorolgy?
canadaguy_25
canadaguy_25
Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:


You have now added 6 other plays to your first posted play of the season. So much for self control. 

What are you talking about self-control? I tend to bet on a lot of plays. I treat it like investments: you don't invest in one stock and hope to hit it big, you diversify and let the numbers work for you. It works for me because it protects me from backdoor covers. Everyone has their own way of doing things and this is mine. That LAA/TEX under just happened to be my blue-chip stock that I needed to invest heavily in. Maybe it hits; maybe it doesn't, but I feel pretty confident in it. Good luck to you  
canadaguy_25
canadaguy_25
Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:



LOL...It was HOT all last week and how did that turn out vs the Royals & Twins in Arlington.  Did it suddenly get hotter?

That was my thought too. It's hot in Texas all season. 
canadaguy_25
canadaguy_25
Adding:

Oakland/Houston Under 9 (-123)
MILWAUKEE -127 **2 UNITS**


canadaguy_25
canadaguy_25
Adding:

Oakland/Houston Under 9 (-123)
MILWAUKEE -127 **2 UNITS**


canadaguy_25
canadaguy_25
Quote Originally Posted by SwishSwish1234:

Or you could look at it from the perspective that the Angels who are on fire right now without scoring many runs will find their bats sooner or later and the Rangers who scored the 14 the other day may finally have found their bats bol anyway.

For sure that's a possibility. I still feel like the trends point towards the likelihood of an under. Anything can happen and that's why it's gambling. Good luck to you
canadaguy_25
canadaguy_25
This is my first posted play of the season. I've been doing really well so far and this line just blows me away. I'm the type who bets one unit per play, and maybe a two-unit play a day. This game I am betting 5 units! I haven't made a play this big since the Superbowl. The play is:

LAA @ TEX UNDER 9.5 (-108)
   
Everything about this game screams under. The teams have combined for 5 overs and 19 unders when looking at the Angels' road record and the Rangers' home. Combined in their last 10, the teams have gone 4 overs and 14 unders (and 2 pushes). In their last three games, Skaggs has an ERA of 3.32, and Marinez has an ERA of 1.29 in his only start of the season. My computer system gives me a total of 6.5. This is a great line at 9.5.

I also have:

TEX +103
 NYY -115
 SEA/CLE UNDER 8.5 -115
 MIAMI -109 

GOOD LUCK

weeble5672
weeble5672
I'm on all of those as well. Let's get it!
jmeff66
jmeff66
Quote Originally Posted by Coin86:

I left $50 in my account and ended up going 1-4 on Monday.... that was the final kick in the balls lol. I'm done with playoffs

I'm getting close to that point. Stats and trends don't matter in the playoffs. It's pretty much just guess work of who wants it more, and that's tough to handicap. One day it's all the road teams winning, then next day it's all home teams. One day all unders, the next day all overs. It's a mess.
bubbleup
bubbleup
I like the lose game 4, win game 5 idea with St Louis though. I'm on Minnesota tonight.

bubbleup
bubbleup
Quote Originally Posted by Messy:

I tend to agree, but the only thing that worries me is the "Bad Lieutenant" angle. The Bad Lieutenant angle is the home game in Game 5 is worth millions of dollars and you often see teams not close out the sweep, but win that 5th game back home. I'm not a big conspiracy guy, but if you look at teams that are up 3-0 on the road with a chance to close it out, they often lose that one and win the next at home. Pittsburgh did it last night and will likely finish them off at home instead and bank millions in the process for their organization. That is the theory, anyway, I play it more in other leagues like the NBA. That being said, the Ducks are hot and if they put in the max effort tonight, they should be able to end Calgary's season.

That definitey does seem to be the case but I think it's more likely that the home team gives everything they have in game 4 to avoid the sweep and give their fans something to at least feel good about. When you're down 3-0 in the series, it's easy to accept that you're not going to come back but at least you can give it everything you got in front of your fans in game 4 to steal that one and have nothing left on the road in game 5. Just my two cents.

 That said, I think Anaheim has enough to overcome that and has to be in the heads of Calgary (even three goals up and the Flames can't put them away. That has to be rattling for such a young team). 
jmeff66
jmeff66
It's been a struggle. I've been burned on a few of those comebacks and I can't for the life of me predict a total. I bet the under and the game ends 5-4. I bet overy and it's 1-0. I'm looking great in my series bets though.
YuBuuBuu
YuBuuBuu
I agree. That game was awful. The refs wouldn't let them play, neither team could score, there was no flow to the game. What a terrible game.
flatron123
flatron123
I was on Gonzaga and I disagree. The calls were bad both ways, and I'd say the Zags got a few big beneficial calls. When a team goes 8 1/2 minutes without a basket, you can't claim it's a ref fix.

Bee23
Bee23
Quote Originally Posted by rainmaker1855:

I'd hedge out 2-3x my original bet, but I like UNC here personally, so I'd be more apt to keep more money on the table.  All things being equal though, you hedge it out (maybe 20-50% usually)

BOL

Exactly. When I hedge, I want to ensure that I'm making more than the original bet back. That way, you put money on a future, got it worng, and still made money! That's success!
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