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Thread Author toft33 Post Entries
Danrules24
Danrules24
Long time since I checked in on this thread. DAN - just making sure this one will continue into this upcoming season..??
Lawton1
Lawton1

Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:

Posted: Apr. 15, 2018 - 1:42 AM ET "Quote" Sunday April 15Pirates Under 8.5 (-115)Capitals (-150) NHL1 unit each Guys I am going to show you the power of Probability in sports wagering. Falcon Sports
.  

Cool idea. Did you backtest it? Or just tracking for now?

Danrules24
Danrules24
Dan -

Late and long overdue..... My sincere thanks for your diligence and reliability these last 2 years.

Where do I send those baked chocolate chip cookies?
Danrules24
Danrules24

Quote Originally Posted by peetee9:

QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24: Not sure what I'm doing for baseball yet. Might just skip it. I definitely won't be running/posting a system on here. I did the post All-star game stuff the last few years but the juice is so high on those, I think I'll lay off this year. Maybe any advice on a system to follow for baseball, for newbies as I , Dan.

 

peetee9 - I've been working on something. It's backtested 2 years so far. Happy to explain via DM.

Danrules24
Danrules24

Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I tend to go over stuff manually Day by Day.  Lol

Yeah - OK, that seems to be the way. And you're the best system capper I ever saw.

Danrules24
Danrules24

Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

QUOTE Originally Posted by toft33: Dan - I'm grateful for your careful analysis. Has paid off handsomely. I'd like to pose a question to you but don't want to hijack this discussion. Is there a way I can do that without interrupting this thread more than I have already here? Ask away.

Thanks - I'm backtesting an MLB system. Just a hypothesis, but evolving into legitimacy. System is 35-0 as of now, but not a large enough sample size IMO.  It's a parlay play that so far has not gone over 11 games. So an 11-day unit progression. Conservative unit amounts for me, but people could make it what they want depending on their bankroll. The selection criteria is the line. Matching lines -- and consensus breaks the tie. The backtesting is laborious. I tried SQDL (which would nullify the consensus component), which I know very little of. Other than combing over the past seasons, do you know a more efficient way to backtest daily wins/losses with the line as the operative variable?

Danrules24
Danrules24
Dan - I'm grateful for your careful analysis. Has paid off handsomely. I'd like to pose a question to you but don't want to hijack this discussion. Is there a way I can do that without interrupting this thread more than I have already here?
Danrules24
Danrules24

Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

QUOTE Originally Posted by toft33: Thanks Dan. Wow, Bovada really hosed me on these lines. It's not even that late in the day Nash was -138 at 2 books I follow at the time I posted. Those now show -141. Wouldn't be surprised if you had to pay -150 for Nash now.

NHL lines really seem to move faster. NCAAB lines stand firm for a good while. Probably has more to do with very few bettors ever opting for the puck line. I have no data to back up that belief, but it sounds halfway articulate and so...it has to be true cool

Danrules24
Danrules24

Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Thursday, Game 3, Nash -138 and Minn -152, $33 to win $61.36

Thanks Dan.

Wow, Bovada really hosed me on these lines. It's not even that late in the day

Danrules24
Danrules24

Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Monday, Game 1, MIN -120 and WAS -145, $11 to win $23.07Note the early start time for both games.

Early start time....oooops !!

Danrules24
Danrules24

Quote Originally Posted by therealdutch:

QUOTE Originally Posted by Concentration: Took Kings and Flames for tonight, I hope I did well?i've learned the hard way to wait for dan.

If he's anywhere near Chicago, he could be stuck in the snow somewhere -- poor guy

kenkean89
kenkean89

Quote Originally Posted by kenkean89:

January record since tracking here on Covers:2016     41-24    63%    +14.6 units2017     30-23    57%    +4.7 units2018     33-28    54%    +2.2 units

Ken - thread is at 41 pages and counting so I know somebody along the way must have asked this: what's your % growth in bankroll since beginning system?

toft33
toft33

I'm monitoring consensus picks daily and simulating a parlay system. For now, I'm just collecting top 6 consensus picks every day, mid-morning. 1,2,3,4,5,6 top picks by percentage ranking will correspond with A,B,C,D,E,F.  I'm stealing the scheme from another great capper who isolated 4 parlays each day: ABC, ABCD, ABCDE, ABCDEF and shared with this forum. Since 11/22/17, the best day was 12/5/17. Unit progression up to $9. Top to bottom - all four parlays hit. So the take would have been roughly $810.11 for the day. Perhaps a little less...

Now, I'm also monitoring each day's AB, CD, EF plays - again with Cover's consensus as source data. But I have no idea how to structure unit progression. (The hockey money lines can throw it off, b/c those can get up to -230.)

Any ideas on structuring unit progression?

Danrules24
Danrules24

Quote Originally Posted by Irish7878:

QUOTE Originally Posted by toft33: Dan - Is this the game 2 parlay? I haven't even looked at NHL calendar. No.  See separate thread for 2 team road parlay system.This is a system that starts after the All Star Break for NHL

Yep, that kinda day. Thank you. 

Danrules24
Danrules24

Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Tuesday, We have A games on WPG and Florida (fade Van)

Dan - Is this the game 2 parlay? I haven't even looked at NHL calendar.

playloud2112
playloud2112

Quote Originally Posted by playloud2112:

Has anyone just ever tailed the monthly leaders on the Survivor Streak? Like the top 5 or 10 every day? Seems like a good way to get winners. Any info on this much appreciated. Peace, Play

 

I'm actually tracking top current streakers by date. The best time to do so is debatable. Because not all of the top ones submit a pick every day, by virtue of the one-week rule. So at around 6PM EST, there is enough to track the best available with a pick made that day. Problem is though, the lines have usually changed by that time and if you want to do a parlay, odds probably go less in my favor. Only tracking it now. Still with a solid chase money-management approach, one could stand to make some money. If you want more explanation, message me directly.  BOL.

Danrules24
Danrules24
Looks like we got a break in the schedule, fellas.  Special gratitude to Dan!  Merry Christmas everybody!!  or Happy Holidays as the case may be..
Danrules24
Danrules24
Quote Originally Posted by chaser15:

Thank you sir, may I have another?!
 
I love seeing this every time we hit. For one, it harkens to a boyish Kevin Bacon getting paddled in "Animal House". For another, I'm supersticious and chaser15's repetitive recitation of this movie classic could be just as important as Dan's picks.


Danrules24
Danrules24
Dan - Bravo!! Whatever tweaks you've made, they are working. If you were a neighbor of mine, I'd have my wife bake you cookies.
mike7002
mike7002
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

One issue with tailing this thread is that you better not miss any of the bets.....hate to be deep in and miss out on that winning parlay.  

Toft, SE43
Have you guys considered running this with your own selections?  You're capping has to be exceptional however.  What mike7002 has done is quite a feat in my opinion and I hope he continues to roll!  I'm always pulling for this thread.  

Right - that's the thing. I'm tracking consensus picks right now. Maybe 10 days worth of data. Noticing that the consensus has a losing record but still a small sample size. I always figured if I was an actuary, I could really come up with something magical, but everything's a grind.