PM si1ly


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I don't understand why you're outputting this model in percentages.  For a guy that talks the talk about statistical analysis, this makes little sense mathematically.  Can you elaborate as to what these percentages represent?  What are they in reference to?
New England  is my favorite play this week.  I love your card by the way.. don't worry about Denver either, my numbers show a sizeable advantage on paper and I think they win the intangibles battle too.

Good luck double G

si1ly replied to Miami at Bufflao
in NFL Betting
I logged back on just to say fantastic right up and I think you have the right read on this game.  Especially when it comes to the turnover battle.  However, a word of caution about your analysis of the Bills running game.  Their opponents this season combine to allow an average of 4.1 yards per carry.  The Bills are averaging 5.3 YPC.  This differential of +1.2 YPC ranks #1 in the NFL.  So while they have played an easy schedule in terms of run defenses, they're still shredding those teams to the tune of +1.2 YPC.  The Dolphins have a good run game looking at traditional stats (3.8 YPC ranks #5 in the NFL).  But if you run the same type of schedule normalized differential, they're holding opponents to only -0.1 YPC less than they average (ranks #14).  Point is:  I have stats to suggest that the Bills running game still measures as elite when normalized relative to their strength of schedule.  And I have stats to suggest the Fins run defense isn't as good as they look on the surface - in fact have benefited from an easy schedule themselves.  These reasons  - and the road divisional game on TNF angle - kept me off the Dolphins tonight even though they're the better team overall.
Quote Originally Posted by phat03:

Y.T.D.         (40-20)  +8440


Thursdays Night...

NFL [306] BUFFALO -1-110 (550/500)


NFL [429] TOTAL o54½-110 (NEW ORLEANS vrs OAKLAND) (550/500)

NFL [424] NEW ENGLAND -9-110 (550/500)

           I leave for the West coast on Thursday, Gona try and root my Bears a victory in SanFran (yikes).

My brother hooked us up with 4 field passes. I guess the seats come with all the food and drinks you want. Should be good.

Have a great time at the game!  I'll be on the Pats in some way shape or form myself.  Either in a 6.5 point tease down to -2.5 or ATS.
The Covers Mods have asked me to stop posting in the mains so this will be my last post here.  Thanks to everyone who made this community a fun and profitable experience over the last 4+ years.  I wish everyone the best going forward.


Quote Originally Posted by Fry888:

Silly are you going to have a play tonight need a bailout game lol

There are not many angles to back the Chiefs here, but the spread is enormous.  I also think J. Charles will have some success running the ball.  My best guess at a final score is 24-13.  I'm probably not making a play tonight.
The DNS information looks up-to-date on the 100 or so test stations I checked this morning.  There should be no more issues with little robot avatars telling you the domain isn't liked.  If anyone is still having issues, delete your cache and reload the page.. it should work then.
si1ly replied to Monday
in NFL Betting
I like it.  I don't think Kansas City will have ANY success throwing the ball.
Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:

Parlay  SF ML ; NE ML ; PIT ML with one underdog you like and it could be a nice payout.  I'd try the Vikings , Saints  or Texans  with this line-up.

Stupid San Fran.. I had all three underdogs on the ML pegged
si1ly replied to SNF »kn0wn«
in NFL Betting
Ground out a winning day.  Nice going kn0wn  
Check that..

(23-1) ATS and ML 

(8-12) Teasers and Totals
Could have been a better day if even one of those high scoring fourth quarters didn't happen in those unders.  

But I can't really look at it that way.. maybe my bad luck with totals this season is just the gambling gods offsetting my good fortune betting sides and moneylines.  

If you count the three-team parlay I hit in week 3 as three separate winners.. I'm 22-1 ATS and ML.

That makes me 9-12 on teasers and totals.
6 Point Teaser - Seattle Seahawks PK  &  Houston +7.5 (+100)  
1:00 EST - Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers Under 47 (-105)  
4:25 EST - Dallas Cowboys -1.5 (-110)  
4:25 EST - St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers Under 38.5 (-110)  

'12-13 NFL:  29-13  (69.1%)  +20.35u

Unders + Silly + 4th Quarters  =  
Quote Originally Posted by 5t4r5align:


Nobody saw this coming.
si1ly replied to NFL w10
in NFL Betting
Strong looking unders to finish the day
si1ly replied to NFL Sunday.,..
in NFL Betting
Quote Originally Posted by phat03:

NFL [225] TOTAL o48-110 (OAKLAND vrs BALTIMORE) 9550/500)

NFL [217] NY GIANTS -4½-110(550/500)

Best of luck today fellas...

Horrible odds you got on that total, but it cashes all the same.  
Quote Originally Posted by roondog248:

Thats what i was afraid of. thanks for the insite.

 if i remember correct, the sheet had the sea hawks @ -9 I wonder if i should just grab them at -5.5 

I'm already on them in a tease, but I like them at -5.5.  I don't see many ways for the Jets to stretch the field today.  Their defense is solid, but Seattle's D is top notch and we all know how bad the Jets offense has been this season.  If the 49ers shut out the Jets on the road, how well will Seattle do at home on the west coast?
Quote Originally Posted by roondog248:

you've done all you can, and we a greatful. just one question. would I'm showing the texans and bears at PK. would you still take texas with +6 in that teaser. do you tink they will win outright? because i believe the sheets had chicago favored in the moneyline

They did, statistically speaking the Bears have a slight edge.  But digging deeper in the data and I don't think the Bears defense will have enough answers to put a touchdown of difference between them.  I think it will be a close game, but +6 isn't enough value on the teaser.  I wouldn't make it unless you can get it to +7 with a push or +7.5.
Good luck everyone!  Have a wonderful Sunday!  

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