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jwheels86
jwheels86
Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86:

Had some good fortune yesterday on games, didn't get chance to post in time..

First game at Noon: Florida vs LSU

Saw line open up at 2 last night on my book, this is an odd, tricky game for multiple reasons.. Anyone that's watched both games, and over the years LSU has always had Trouble with the Gators in basketball.. LSU lost the first one in OT at HOME, Gators held lead with go ahead shot with about 5 Seconds or less last week/Wednesday and then let Tremont Waters walk down and tie it down two to go to OT again in that game, then LSU went on to win in OT to even Series for season..


LSU is in an odd predicament as a team, as everyone knows the situation by now, they have nothing to really gain nor lose in this game except helping themselves Seed Wise for Tournament to go to Semi-Final or Final of SEC Tournament but they don't have a coach and have to play without him. UF with yesterdays 16 point win had probably Secured themselves a spot and one of the last ones for NCAA Tournament. 

I've had zero faith in this Florida team, as they are probably the worst single one team iv'e seen overall in over 25 years of watching them.. Their Seniors are the worst class of Seniors overall as well too, soft and disappear and the under classmen of Freshmen get forced to step up and carry the team, much like Yesterday for anyone that watched the game with talented Keyontae Johnson (from Oak Hill HS) going for like 25 and 12 plus in the game carrying team.. Along with fellow other Freshmen high ranked recruits Noah Locke and Andrew Nembhard. 


Seeing line move up to 3 with action on LSU, I expect LSU to either thrive in this whole predicament they are in or do the opposite, but every time Gators are finally getting less odds and love from Vegas, those are the games they win and somehow cover easily, just like Yesterday only laying (-2) on Arkansas..

This is probably the most toss up game of the SEC Tournament today, but I'll grab the points to start at (3.5) and OVER 135 because LSU has forced them to pick their pace up in both games..

Florida (+3.5) 

Over 135  






Good start


Duke (-3)


jwheels86
jwheels86
I'll be back with more plays after this game playing all of them today and for the other Conference Tournaments, gonna be a lot of action today and while it will probably be more uneventful for the casual public fan to see better games, it will be beneficial and profitable for Cappers and Gamblers for favorites winning today... 


jwheels86
jwheels86
Had some good fortune yesterday on games, didn't get chance to post in time..

First game at Noon: Florida vs LSU

Saw line open up at 2 last night on my book, this is an odd, tricky game for multiple reasons.. Anyone that's watched both games, and over the years LSU has always had Trouble with the Gators in basketball.. LSU lost the first one in OT at HOME, Gators held lead with go ahead shot with about 5 Seconds or less last week/Wednesday and then let Tremont Waters walk down and tie it down two to go to OT again in that game, then LSU went on to win in OT to even Series for season..


LSU is in an odd predicament as a team, as everyone knows the situation by now, they have nothing to really gain nor lose in this game except helping themselves Seed Wise for Tournament to go to Semi-Final or Final of SEC Tournament but they don't have a coach and have to play without him. UF with yesterdays 16 point win had probably Secured themselves a spot and one of the last ones for NCAA Tournament. 

I've had zero faith in this Florida team, as they are probably the worst single one team iv'e seen overall in over 25 years of watching them.. Their Seniors are the worst class of Seniors overall as well too, soft and disappear and the under classmen of Freshmen get forced to step up and carry the team, much like Yesterday for anyone that watched the game with talented Keyontae Johnson (from Oak Hill HS) going for like 25 and 12 plus in the game carrying team.. Along with fellow other Freshmen high ranked recruits Noah Locke and Andrew Nembhard. 


Seeing line move up to 3 with action on LSU, I expect LSU to either thrive in this whole predicament they are in or do the opposite, but every time Gators are finally getting less odds and love from Vegas, those are the games they win and somehow cover easily, just like Yesterday only laying (-2) on Arkansas..

This is probably the most toss up game of the SEC Tournament today, but I'll grab the points to start at (3.5) and OVER 135 because LSU has forced them to pick their pace up in both games..

Florida (+3.5) 

Over 135



Boom_Boom
Boom_Boom
Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:


excellent post


Clemson was always the only way to go. Been watching football a long time. I knew what I saw with Lawrence, he's a Joe Montana with better hair genes.
Boom_Boom
Boom_Boom
I hate to be a told you so guy, but i've been watching football a long time.. and I laid it all out there in the first pages, about seeing this Lawrence kid, he's the best iv'e seen at his stage in cerebral ability at QB. 

and how soo many people thought this game would go the opposite of way it did baffled me. Clemson had the one team that could do this all year, they were right in front of everyones eyes. 

Venables and the D was the main difference also as I said and have ALWAYS loved that guy. He's a football genius and always was even coming up short all those years with Stoops. 
Mr_Gatorhater
Mr_Gatorhater
Quote Originally Posted by UNIMAN:

Don't gamble if your in a financial situation. Gamble with "expendable" monies only is my rule.

Lessons I learned;

1. Never chase a lose. Meaning, don't bet to make up loses, never works.
2. Never gamble with a disparate mind. Needing a ten team parlay is very disparate!!! 
3. You can look online and see lottery winners, big slot machine winners, 10-team parlay winners. But there is not enough room in all the internet to list the LOSERS!!! DON"T BE ONE OF THEM.

Humans are badly designed to gamble successfully, humans win and think they then got profit to blow, so already mentally giving up their profit and actually losing. Then when they lose, they impulsively want to chase it back, which is insane and doesn't change the value or your odds in any next wager or game.. Only great gamblers are calm and clear minded and don't gamble for action or that drug high of it. Which is rare
Boom_Boom
Boom_Boom
Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:


Kyler Murray's feet is what gave Bama problems and allowed OK to move the ball successfully passing vs Bama...Lawrence is not a runner and not elusive..If ND had a competent QB...the outcome may have been different vs Clemson...ND moved the ball between the 20's vs Clemson in the 1st half..Book missed some easy throws nervous in that game and most of the time did not look past his 1st read.Played scared in that game.....It will come down to Bama's OL vs Clemson DL..if the DL cannot get pressure the secondary will get exposed. Clemson's D has looked better than it is overall because the DL disrupts most offenses with their front 4.... A'm and SC put up big numbers vs that Clemson defense..

TL might not be a galloping runner with the ball, but he's not a statue either, he's a large kid that can move away from pressure if he's got to, not like many other passers back there against Bama that just get flustered and go down into a shell..

While it's right they got hit a few times by SC and some teams, but SC was actually playing well in that stretch and did the same for a full half on a very good Florida D unit as well. Also, while Clemson D has looked not as solid against better units, that's also just the rule. There is a difference with your eye balls when you are watching which teams are talented, and which are coached well on that side, which Clemson is both. They will NEVER lose a game because of the scheme and coaching by a top billed guy like Venables and one of my favorite all time DC's in college, it will be their secondary that will get them beat if anything does. 


Boom_Boom
Boom_Boom
For some reason, iv'e seen many act like Bama already overcame their threat, as if OU was the tougher one to get by than this Clemson team. Which is, by far not accurate. Iv'e said it myself personally all year, Clemson is the one and only team that can play with Bama and is equipped with enough to beat them, Clemson Defense is good enough and deep enough, and for some reason people refuse to believe that Bama isn't as great on Defense as everyone is accustomed too. I see this game as a mixture between the last two games, expect a finish somewhat like the game two years ago, and lower scoring like last year, although both QB's are different. Which honestly, both very pedestrian QB's last year against Great defenses kept the game closer to teens than the other two. Clemson can do enough to stop the run like Georgia to force Tua to have to wing it a little more and move it passing the ball, which means that leads to a few more punts than they have usually had on average than all games this year for most part. 


Lawrence isn't kelly bryant, which is why it won't be like last year, and Clemson had no chance beating them with him because he can't throw, Trevor is not like a Freshmen, he's a cerebral guy, can throw enough and read defenses and actually hurts you when you blitz, but bama doesn't blitz a lot this year. Clemson run game or no run game is gonna be what decides the game, pace and flow of how well they can compete long term. Think Bama will move it in between the 20's more, but can they cash in down in the red zone? I think that the game will be another good one and either winner will do so by single digits. I said for many months that the only roster that wouldn't be a double digit dog against Alabama would be this Clemson team. Lawrence needs to avoid a slow start like the ND game, and also needs to take from Lincoln Riley and pick on Surtain on the outside with the Wideouts to do so, and also need to find the guy that killed bama both of the first two games and caught the game winner, although Saban might just decide he's not gonna let him beat them again to move chains and in redzone, belichek like approach. 


You take the points with Clemson or nothing in this game, and maybe the under, though Im still just not sure how the total points will wind up looking like. I don't think either will just light the other up, and turnovers will play a major factor.. Also Tua's health comes into play, he was clearly in pain after the semi final, which means he either got dinged up again during the game at some point later in 2nd half or was fibbing about how great it felt the whole time leading up to the Orange Bowl. I expect another good game and would take Clemson with the points and lean the under. What do you guys think?


Good luck however you play it or choose too, and enjoy the game fellas. Another great season for both teams, and will be first ever to finish a season 15-0? 

Good to see you Boom, enjoy the moment and Good Luck to your Clemson Tigers...


Boom_Boom
Boom_Boom
Quote Originally Posted by Cover34:

Michigan line has dropped three full points over the course of the last 6-7 days, it's all the way down to 4.5 now, what makes you like Michigan with many important guys out to stuff run and slow down Florida? If anything, the main reason why Gators wouldn't win or cover, is because of one single person, and we all know who that is, don't we? Feliepe Franks is single handedly either the reason the Gators will compete, or get beat, it will be very much similar to Georgia game plan in Jacksonville from two months ago, Franks will be asked to come out throwing it to back Michigan stout run Defense up, but it's completely up to Franks to keep from throwing it to the other teams jersey like that Georgia game to open up the run game..If Gators had a better QB and better QB play between the ears, I'd be on them and with a good chance to win. Franks is the lone problem holding back Mullen from returning Florida back to where they need to be.. Motivation will also be a factor, Gators will be up for sure as they haven't beaten Michigan yet, interested to see how up Wolverines will be after the way last game went, and Mullen has been in constant contact with Meyer, to scheme and prepare for that Michigan good solid defense, as Mullen still runs very much similar offensive style and game plan to Urban Meyers still to this day offensively speaking...

 

Good points. DE Rashan Gary, LB Devon Bush RB Karan Higdon. All sitting for Mich. Big line move. I'ts a no play for me. GL



It's a toss up, like most of the bowl games this year so far, the most pk or close to games iv'e ever seen. Gators are getting guys back, and playing young studs as Freshmen, while Michigan is sitting many of their important starters and players. Keep an eye on and out for Copeland #15 for Florida today at slot and Z position at Wideout, he's a monster that has been knicked up all season long as a true freshmen and only played in one game so far, will still have redshirt intact, Gators best corner that's been out as well since non contact ACL injury that ended his season, all the way back in Week 2 against Kentucky, has been back out there and running pretty full in Marco Wilson, NFL Corner Quincy Wilson brother, don't know if he will play, but either way Gators have used time to heal and gotten some Freshmen with a game or more left to play that won't count towards their burning of the Red Shirt.. Gators will be up and wanna win for sure, and probably more than Michigan, Mullen is one of the elite game planners with this much time to prep for a single game, and winning 10 games for Gators would be a program re installer. Mullen can't be overlooked in games like this, as he has Florida trending back towards being on top sooner than people thought, playing on house money this year.. If he decides to use some packages for Emory Jones, ex Buckeye commit, he's very dangerous and will be in the future.. Gators finally have some Dudes again out there, and the first real elite great game day coach since Urban, and first time in 8 years. 


GL bud... 
Boom_Boom
Boom_Boom
Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:

Just for the record:


I think most likely Alabama will find away to win this game.... it's what they do, they're a great program. Winners usually fins ways to win and losers usually find ways to lose.

With that being said.... Oklahoma is tremendous. Kyler Murray is freak show and if Hollywood Brown is 100% or even 80% I don't think the Alabama secondary can cover them. Clemson has a weakness and it's the secondary too... but nobody talks about Alabama's weakness... and trust me, I know what it is.... it's that secondary too. It will be exposed tonight.

When Alabama is Alabama... they have great outside defenders in the secondary... Nick's little secret is he likes to play man press on the corners and rotate the safety's in and outside the box.... He can't do that much this year, the guys are just not " there " yet.  He also likes to force the issue usually with his defense... Not really happened much this year if you watch the tape... they're playing more zone and coverage then I've ever seen before from them.

If Kyler Murray gets to sit in the pocket like I think he will... He is gonna be a nightmare for this defense.... any defense for that matter, Clemson included. Plus the one thing that isn't really talked about as much that i think will be huge in this game..... Oklahoma has the BEST offensive line in the country and it's not even close... so they WILL rack up some running yards with the backs and Murray.


This will be a game people.... this is not a Alabama smack you in the mouth win by 30+ types of games.









Michigan line has dropped three full points over the course of the last 6-7 days, it's all the way down to 4.5 now, what makes you like Michigan with many important guys out to stuff run and slow down Florida? If anything, the main reason why Gators wouldn't win or cover, is because of one single person, and we all know who that is, don't we? Feliepe Franks is single handedly either the reason the Gators will compete, or get beat, it will be very much similar to Georgia game plan in Jacksonville from two months ago, Franks will be asked to come out throwing it to back Michigan stout run Defense up, but it's completely up to Franks to keep from throwing it to the other teams jersey like that Georgia game to open up the run game..


If Gators had a better QB and better QB play between the ears, I'd be on them and with a good chance to win. Franks is the lone problem holding back Mullen from returning Florida back to where they need to be.. Motivation will also be a factor, Gators will be up for sure as they haven't beaten Michigan yet, interested to see how up Wolverines will be after the way last game went, and Mullen has been in constant contact with Meyer, to scheme and prepare for that Michigan good solid defense, as Mullen still runs very much similar offensive style and game plan to Urban Meyers still to this day offensively speaking...
GucciCapper
GucciCapper
Quote Originally Posted by Dalteri:

You like Georgia Tech?


Yes.



This sucks, for the veterans especially. 
ckattar8
ckattar8
Quote Originally Posted by shark_apreza:

whát they can possibly discuss? they looked like going through the motions, desinterested, throw in the horrible weather


You can discuss everything during that time, especially when effort is the issue. 
ckattar8
ckattar8
Boise defense looked really bad there 
WussieMan
WussieMan
May I ask why you lean Vanderbilt?

Seems like a lot of people are at such a low number to catch at home, in another game in which the situation is their "home" stadium is gonna be packed full of Gators, and probably closer to 60% or more like it is many times when I've been there over the years.. Gator fans travel very well, and surprisingly many live down south in those areas and travel together in buses from other city Gator clubs.. 

Vandy has a good defense, and have played better this year, but after that ND game they've looked pretty much back to their usual average at best level and taking a few beatings, and at home to SC the very next week after close tough Notre Dame loss.. Even Tennessee State was giving them trouble for a good while, and had as many fans there that day as well. 

Just seems like a very low number for them to have if the Gators come out and aren't flat or hung over from previous games, they don't have really injuries either on that front for the first time in years it seems. 


Good luck 
jwheels86
jwheels86
Both lines identical this weekend, how do we all feel about each?

Perfect normal trap game, let down/ kind of look ahead spot for Florida going into noon kickoff in breezy cooler Nashville weather Gators not accustomed too, after THREE heart wrenching grind it out big games and two on road last 3 leading up to this one. 

Lets recap ATS, Gators have been the UD in all three, starting with @ Tennessee two weeks back,came into game as small 3-4 point dogs, lay a smack down on Vols, with Final score of 47-21, most points ever scored by a Gators team in Knoxville, surprisingly even the years under Spurrier and Urban, and winning the turnover battle, forcing 6 and running away with it. 

@Mississippi State, another grind it out, ugly not pretty game, out toughed, out physically man handled the Bulldogs in their own house with a record crowd as a full 7 point underdog, found a way to counter to Dawgs great physical and tough front 7 to the tune of 13-6, holding the Bulldogs to about a mere 30 something odd total yards of offense in  the 2nd half and Defense yet again held it down for a so so Franks led offense at QB.. Biggest win in many years for UF Football program, signature win for Dan Mullen against his old team.. That is until..

Which brings us to last week, Mullen gets #5 LSU Tigers coming in hot off a blow out victory over Orgerons' former employer and beats Ole Miss down and finally shows some life on offense, and completely controls the game on both LOS and held Ole Miss to very similar style Alabama did weeks prior. Even more surprising than the week before, Mullen finds a way to motivate his new Gator team, to out physical, out coach the LSU staff in the 2nd half, called great game on offense with balance and rushes for over 200 yards on an Aranda led Defense as one of the top notch units in the entire Country and #34 in Total Defense, and week Before against a top 10 Total defense with Bulldogs at #9 in Total defense in NCAA. Mullen has worked his magic, along with Todd Grantham on defense.. For a heavyweight slug fest to top the #5 Ranked LSU Tigers 27-19 after sending another blitz and picking off a Joe Burrow pass for a touchdown, Burrow threw his first two Interceptions for the Tigers, in last two possessions to take lead or tie the game.. 


Now, Gators are favorites laying 7 in road chalk for the first time in a month, is it too little or is the hangover of last week and look ahead game spot too much to trust with it on Franks Shoulders and a bit more pressure as Gators see their ranking soar 8 full spots up the ladder to a #14 National Ranking?







As stated above, LSU comes back home to face the top favorite of the East, at home in another huge game matching up #13 LSU in with Death Valley crowd behind them 90,000 plus strong, against the #2 ranked in the Country Nationally, Kirby Smarts bulldogs.. Is 7 the right number? A bit too high, or too low for the barking home Tigers here in this spot with their strong defense and how do they match up with the Bulldogs on both sides of the ball? Can LSU stop the run game enough with younger UGA OL that's had struggles of their own protecting the QB and getting little push in the run game, as a STAPLE of what they'd like to do here on Saturday on the road, and play strong defense.. Can they get to LSU's QB Joe Burrows in the same fashion the Gators aggressive blitzing pass rush was able to do to the tune of 5 sacks? 


Lots to talk about in both of these match ups, feed back in detail is greatly appreciated to get these games and capping them under way fellas...


Please let me know what you think here about them both this weekend, low lines in conference games sharply set, and advantages and money to be made and had here in my  Opinion


Gentlemen 
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
College Football / WEEK 6 / View Post
Texas getting two scores is tough to pass up. 
TRAIN69
TRAIN69
Gators definitely went in there and brought the fight to them, much tougher team under Mullen and so much better coached, everywhere.
chad77
chad77
Fitz has continued to be very bad against blitz, something for everyone to note going forward, and with them playing another defense that will in Auburn next week. Could be a very low scoring ugly one again
TRAIN69
TRAIN69
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Yes sir. I think this is a coin flip game on a neutral field, and Starksville aint worth 2 scores. If the Gators play their normal D, I see no reason they cant win....plus the coaching factors...

Wheels

I agree, only problem I see now as a Gator fan and not sure if it's good or bad working against them.. our fans and players alike both expect us to just waltz right in there and play great all around again like the Gators did last week in Knoxville, though this test will be MUCH tougher for many obvious reasons.. Just hope Franks and the UF team show more improvement and take full advantage of the ins and outs Mullens staff provides to the players in a hostile environment coming.. That's all im looking for this year, week to week improvement.. Atmosphere and game doesn't get any bigger this week on Saturday night Prime Time kick off for 2nd week in a row, with the country wanting to all See Mullen get his brains beat in, first coach to ever leave his prior team in Conference then have to play there on the road with new team the very next year.. Line opened at 9 everywhere I saw, and has come down to 7.5 and now resting at 7 and never moved back towards Dawgs direction the entire week.. Hopefully the Gators can inflict their brand of physical ball early like last week, get a score or turnover, blocked punt from Special Teams etc.. and quiet down the crowd, which is precisely what they need in this atmosphere to get a repeat of last week.. Here's to hoping for a good Gators game played with some confidence and coming out the Victors SU on the ML...




As always, Good and Best Of Luck Train, ill be watching...
chad77
chad77
The Gators/MSU game is an odd one to cap, iv'e posted in previous threads as to why, while everyone assumes that Miss State players have the goods on Mullen and his system, it actually works the other way around because they never play UF players, and not just Mullen, but most of his staff were the ones, at least 5 of them coaching up the Dawg players last year.. And they will know and understand how to attack them more than the other way around and the talking heads will have you believe.. It's gonna be an absolute brawl fight all the way through, depends pretty much on which QB keeps their head under fire and plays better, because they are pretty similar in styles but Franks has taken a major step forward in advancing his ability so far this year, even more so than Fitzgerald without Mullen calling the plays any longer, especially when both compared to last weeks match ups and games on the road.. Fitz had some serious mega problems against a similar brand and style of defense coming with pressure that he's gonna face again tonight.. He was flat out awful against the blitz all the way through the game..

Another sort of meaningless comparison, while true stat though that I'd assume not many people know right now, Feleipe Franks and Tua are tied through first month of play in TD passes leading the SEC... 



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