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Covers
Covers

This smells fishy to me.  Spurs -190 looks ok, but pistons take care of biz at home, and when they lose, it's usually barely.  The fact this isn't at -6 tells me big money is on the + side, and public is on the -.  73% Public pick and the line hasn't budged.

 

Covers
Covers
Home team has won the last 7 matches.
Either it's time for a change, or bet the streak.

And people that do this for a living know you don't make money picking exceptions.

Phoenix is mediocre at best away from home.  Calgary should win this in regulation

Calgary ml +125
3 Units

Good Luck fellas 
AlphaandOmega
AlphaandOmega
Well you hear the fade...Panthers ML, Patriots Plus Points it sounds like

:)

Sounds like a little too much anger and frustration to NOT be a make-up bet for a lot of losses.

GL though, I have Pats +3.5 -135 and Panthers ml -150
oldwiseone
oldwiseone
Quote Originally Posted by chaloots:

Extra juice is never worth it no matter what the bet size is. You will learn that eventually. Capping sides is less important then reduced juice,by paying extra juice you have ZERO chance of winning in the long run. ZERO. Not criticizing,just trying to help. Only way to survive and win in the long run is straight bets,no parlays and never buying points no matter the line or bet size.



That's why you're a prospect.  Don't give ABSOLUTE advice like you are smarter than anyone on here.  Trust me, you're not

As a matter of fact, if you look at oldwiseone's logic (and mine in many instances), it makes perfect sense.  Just think about this...

Point #1:
Who knows MORE than the oddsmakers??  Noone, not even G-d.  If you don't agree with this, don't continue reading.  If you do, point #2...

Point #2: 
These oddsmakers, or let's just call them what they are which are oracles, set the number at what THEY think about the game and how THEY think it will result.

Point #3:
If Point #2 is true, and assuming spreads are even #'s (+3, +4, etc), then it can be said that a game is capped to "push" (hence the handicap system's DEFINITION which is to handicap teams to be EVEN).

Point #4:
Buying points around a bet that WOULD have pushed, AUTOMATICALLY means you won (If you don't understand that math, comment on this post and I'll explain in 5th Grade detail).

Point #5:
Is the extra 10-30% vig betting as an oddsmaker worth it?  Said a different way, would you rather bet +100 on YOUR knowledge of the sides, OR, bet -110 to -130 odds using THEIR knowledge and win if the game pushes, REGARDLESS the side you choose.


This is not saying I know it all, but I'm SURE as hell saying you, Chaloots, have no clue where your neck ends and your butt cheeks start.


Personally, I bought .5 points and am taking Pats +3.5 at -135 for 5 units.

Also sprinkling Panthers winning by 1-6 at +350 for 1/2 unit

Key for me is Cam during the press conference...

"We need this more than ANYTHING."

I've learned the quickest way to lose something is to want it too badly.  Panthers D will be why they win by 3, not Cam for all you Cam Lovers


fitchris562
fitchris562
Is Clippers Lakers not a home team for both squads?  I understand the fans having season tickets, but as far as game prep, shooting spots, I feel like the clips already lost their home game against the lake show (a BIG statement game for a home opener for LA supremacy).

Just sayin, Clips might be one of those squads to fade until they click during a long season.

Just my thoughts...I like golden state at +210 for the game honestly.  Maybe I'll throw GS + a lot of points at half if I think I'm right, laying off until then.

Good luck
Covers
Covers
Quote Originally Posted by WHOjulsCARDINAL:

these experts dont know wtf theyre talkin ab. the 1 guy basically said medlen sucks and take cinci. you make me laugh experts i just lost 400 on san fran vs phillie cuz 2 of you scrubs said to take em.



so im going against you virgins because you guys know nothing ab baseball


atlanta ML 


How about you try something crazy, and actually do your OWN research, make your OWN picks, and quit complaining to Covers' Members about how you can't pay your kids cell phone bill.

CINCY ML -110 500 WINS 490

My previous post had incorrect formatting, and I want to make sure when I call out these jokers, it's using somewhat good grammar. 
Covers
Covers
Quote Originally Posted by WHOjulsCARDINAL:

these experts dont know wtf theyre talkin ab. the 1 guy basically said medlen sucks and take cinci. you make me laugh experts i just lost 400 on san fran vs phillie cuz 2 of you scrubs said to take em.



so im going against you virgins because you guys know nothing ab baseball


THEY know nothing about baseball, and YOU threw 400 on a random 'scrub's post'?  Wow...enough said

How about you try something crazy, and actually do your OWN research, make your OWN picks, and quit complaining to Covers' Members about how you can't pay your kids cell phone bill.

CINCY ML -110 500 WINS 490

atlanta ML 
NFLKiller
NFLKiller
Quote Originally Posted by rocklocks:

Good job!


Thanks Rocklocks!

Now let's get this bulls +12 in Miami!

Go Bulls!
NFLKiller
NFLKiller
I'm taking bulls ml +270.

They are money at +7.5, but I have FULL faith in Brooklyn's collapse at home under the pressure of a game seven.  D Will will be nowhere to be found, like in the 2nd half of there loss at home in Brooklyn.

Bulls ml +270
500 wins 1350, pays 1850.

+7.5 is money, but for almost 3:1, I'd rather bet a nickel on bulls ml than 3 dimes on the spread.  Too many games on to put that much on one, but their ml is WELL worth it to me.


Good luck, and let the bull-bashing begin :)
bigslick24ak
bigslick24ak
NBA Betting / Sat Picks / View Post
Bulls ml, +270.  I bet Nets in Chicago, fyi.  

The Bulls are a better road team this year, and even better when they shouldn't win.

Bulls win this, and avoid the 3-1 comeback and embarrassment.  

Bulls ML +270
100 wins 270, pays 370
Covers
Covers
Quote Originally Posted by morgan102:

First of all D Rose is not  and all season have not been a part of this teams success this season,so he's not even in the mix.On the other hand Hinrich is and The Nets have they're backs against the wall and at home.The only way I would play Brooklyn is the money line.This will be a very close game and whatever the Bulls line-up is tonight,they want to close this garbage,NOW!! Experience is essential in these play-offs,The Bulls have it,the Nets don't......Nets win.........Bulls cover.


So you don't see find that 68% of the public is on Bulls +5.5 and the line hasn't MOVED a half a point?  Or that every person and their mother thinks this game is gonna be a close one?

I am a die-hard bulls fan, which is why I tend to stay away from these types of games.  But having said all of that, and the lines-makers KNOWING these games come down to the wire, +5.5 Bulls seems like the trap bet of the week.

I'm playing Nets -5.5 or nothing at all.  Good luck though, I always hope for my covers' hommies to take ANY book!  lol
Covers
Covers
Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan9698:

D Rose is out and now Hinrich is out.

Nate will get the whole 48 mins...

I'm a big bulls fan and now a bigger fan of Nate... but I don't think he can make up for the loss of Hinrich

I grabbed NJ -5.5




No way, DRose is out?  Thanks for the update!  I'll be sure and check back in for any groundbreaking updates!

Covers
Covers
Quote Originally Posted by MrBeisbol:

PICK: OVER 9 (MY BEST SELECTION)

PICK: ST LOUIS +105

PREDICTION: 9-2 ST LOUIS


What a call on the score...6-1 st louis in top of 7th, impressive
NFLKiller
NFLKiller
Quote Originally Posted by hitterno24:

i think that line opened up that way to induce action from the sharps on to the jackets..no way oilers should open as a favorite here..



#1 rule of sportsbetting I've learned over the years, sharps don't move lines, the public does

The line is moving like a banshee warrior before the game, +115 down to -120, now up to +105.  Again, I think this is a prime example of the sharps gobbling up the line movement, like hedge funds do on stock prices
Nilshu
Nilshu
This one killed me, ONLY bet was $500 on live betting down 2-0 for kings ml +284, wins 1420, pays 1920.

I put 300 on +2.5, and 300 on +1.5 at different points, but still...

After the goal scored for the Kings, I was elated.

4 seconds left in regulation, I pooped myself
NFLKiller
NFLKiller
Read below, I PROMISE you'll at least get a chuckle.  I spent time on it, so enjoy :)

1st NHL Post, 7-5 in NBA and NFL posted picks.  (started 7-1, haven't posted in almost a month)

NHL ATS YTD Posted Picks-  0-0

Columbus ml +110

1500 wins 1650


I won't spend the time on the huge analytical writeup on the game because, well, all that really matters is the W and you to not fall asleep reading a post.  Here are the reasons why I put 1.5 units on the game, without getting into in-game specific strategy and reasoning:

1) Roughly 60% Public Consensus in polling for Oilers
2) 81% Private Book Money for the Oilers
3) Oilers on back-to-back
4) Oilers 1-5 last 6 in Columbus

However...

Line Movement 20-30% in the other direction

This mean that regardless of all the walk-in Vegas money, which DOMINATES the Vegas revenue unlike some may think, and the offshore bookies (I only know numbers on top 5), the line is still moving in the other direction because of the heavy hitters making lump bets for Columbus, hence the VIOLENT line-swaying back and forth before the game---this isn't indecision, it's a tug-of-war between the public and the pro's with the insider info

If the professional bookies that play against Vegas AND Vegas can both make money via the betting public, this is a match made in heaven. 

Bookies love milking the public WITH Vegas like Johnny like his mum's tit.  It's an incestuous double win.  If that clouds your mind with too many dirty thoughts, here's another metaphor: a pig and a sloth in a basement playing cards laughing while watching the public cry.

Hopefully this offered some insight and not just generic, regurgitated nonsense that I so often read recently in the forum. 

There are ALWAYS the great vets that I keep coming back for, so I hope to contribute to add to steady rock that is this covers forum!

BOL

NOTE:  When I made the pick last night, I got +115, but when I started writing the article, it was at +110 (I made an extra 5%, but figured I'd make it accurate with the 'then current' spread).  However, now as I'm ready to submit and checked, it fluctuated all the way to Columbus -120, back to -105, now at +100.  This makes me feel even more sure about my pick and above analysis.  Good luck fellas (and lady fellas)
MrZamboni
MrZamboni
93% of my book's players are betting the Sharks.  Smells fishy

I'm GUESSING Phoenix in OT based off of this low line against a horrendous Coyotes squad on the road.

Good luck though, just seems too easy
NFLKiller
NFLKiller
ADDING:

Hawks@Canucks 1ST PERIOD OVER 1.5 -120    3 UNITS
NFLKiller
NFLKiller
My first NHL post, but it's 5 large for me so I couldn't resist.

********    5 UNITS    ********

Blackhawks @ Canucks under 5.5 @ -115



I'm 7-5 posted NBA after a hot 7-2 start.

Like I said, this is my virgin NHL post of the season, but will update my record as it comes along.

Cheers!
Tepham
Tepham
On most of your picks, except the under in the Jets game...I have Jets and over 5.5

BOL