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Thread Author gwjtf Post Entries
ticojoe
ticojoe
Didn’t mean ?? .... thot I posted an emoji but I am technically challenged like that :)
ticojoe
ticojoe
Fantastic week Ticojoe. Wish I had your system but thank you much for sharing ??
jimmydafreak
jimmydafreak

Jimmy - Congratulations on a fantastic week1 overall and your Bama predictions - you obviously have a great read on this team - excellent, impressive work. ??

The returning OL starts comparison is excellent information to keep track of and consider with other factors - LA Tech was absolutely the play for all the reasons you cited for example; but from week 1’s results the 40 returning OL start differential criteria as a betting strategy ATS at the beginning of the season doesn’t appear to produce an advantage as a stand alone strategy .... were it but that easy ??... 

pepp
pepp

Gerhan/Kwan/Pepp - you guys are entitled to your opinion but u're way out of line here.  Chalk covers in the early weeks of the season, especially the first couple of weeks, and especially big chalk, in college football.  This is a well known trend.  And if you look at some of the top cappers on Covers with VERIFIED, DOCUMENTED winning seasons year after year, like Blowoutgm (over 60% last season all documented on this site); TicoJoe (also over 60% verified by his posts on the site); Nostradamus, who wins money every year for the last 10 or so - their cards this week are dominated by chalk week one, including this week.  Go check it out yourself.  You two, OTOH, have no record whatsoever.  You don't like favorites this week - fine; back it up with which ones are going to lose and which dogs are going to win, if you are so intelligent. You give us pearls of wisdom 'Dogs are everywhere' and 'be extremely careful betting favorites' ... and offer nothing but personal attacks to someone who questions your omniscience.  YOU are the joke ...

Tappy
Tappy

Quote Originally Posted by Syracuse L.J.:

Lots of good info coming from August scrimmages about Syr OL and DL. The word is that they finally look like ACC Lines and there's some depth...especially on the OL. So far, Syr has been an example of a Baylor offense that can't run the ball. Everything suggests they can run the damn ball this year.    As far as an angle on this game: Syr is motivated to not lose their focus by playing a former coach. That happened last year when Syr met MTSU. They focused on Shafer being on the other sideline...err pressbox.  They are talking openly about that not happening this year. The WMU coach, Lester, is the guy who went to Oregon and recruited Dungey to Syr.   The game is tough. WMU has all the intangibles: night game at home vs a P5 team. If Syr is "focused on being focused and taking care of business" thye come into that environment and pull out the cover.

Good Info Syracuse.  Do you believe the Orangemen will do it? :)

 

jimmydafreak
jimmydafreak

I am interested to know Jalen’s mindset at this point. After starting for two years, does he think he will get meaningful reps in games? Is he even going to try? Or has he mentally packed it in once Tua is named starter and bides his time until transfer? Imponderables perhaps but relevant to the team’s performance should Saban decide to play him significantly and of course should Tua get injured.

Jalen will land somewhere and play qb if that is what he wants. At the D1 level he is a legitimate dual threat who stretches defenses with his legs, takes care of the football, and hits over 60% of his passes without forcing too many throws or throwing too many picks. There is a place for him if that is what he wants. But he should hopefully see what the rest of the world knows and especially in the NFL; his future in the league, if he is to have one, is at a position other than QB.

 

TD21
TD21

Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Quote Originally Posted by a1_tellem:

Hey Td big fan and long time follower.    With you on most of your games especially Cuse & miss st in week 2. Mind givin is a short (or long) one line write about your perspective on those games? Also your thoughts on the jams Madison +14
a1, I might have to go with the short version on some  parts of these.  Limited time is the norm for me.I think the Syracuse offense matches up pretty well with the WMU as long as QB Dungey is healthy.  The +/- ATS margin #s for Syracuse last year with Dungey starting vs. other QBs starting at the end of the year were staggering (*but it is tough to quantify how much of those results are from the defense cratering to end the year as well).  Despite new #1  WR options, I think Dungey and this offense will put up enough points to cover.  This should also be the best Syracuse rushing offense since Babers arrived.  The WMU defense is looking for answers at DT.  And for those unaware, you can cross off CB Sam Beal in your Phil Steele.  It's no longer listed on Don Best, but the 2018 preseason all MAC CB was ineligible and went into the NFL supplemental draft.  So both he and CB D. Phillips are gone.  WMU does look solid at DE and Safety and the new LBs have speed and upside.  I do like the WMU offense with QB Wassink healthy and better experience coming back this year.  They may get a few points on Syracuse, but I just think they (Syracuse) put up more on WMU and outscore them.  The Syracuse D-Line is the relative strength of this defense.  LBs completely new.  The Secondary is at least experienced although could be thin on depth beyond the starting unit.  And I did bet this game immediately when it opened, so I have a solid # working for me as well.For Mississippi State, short answer is I just think they are better than most people are giving them credit for.  My preseason PR# ratings have them at #10 or #11 overall I believe it is (about the same as Michigan).  The new HC steps into a great situation.  Unless QB Fitzgerald suffers an unexpected setback, they should simply be the better team here that laying only a FG as road chalk does not bother me.  I once knew a strong Xs & Os college football mind  and Moorhead's offensive mind reminds me of that and I think he'll do very well in year 1 and should really improve their passing game as well....

Brav - fuckin' - 'O.... great work as always TD ... keep 'em coming when you have time ... an_clap

Irish7878
Irish7878

What makes this so interesting is no one knows what OSU is going to do. Even if we all knew the actual facts, which we don’t yet, we still don’t know what the university will ultimately do. The combination of societie’s shifting attitudes and tolerance for this kind of thing; coupled with Urban’s relatively mild transgression (I.e., essentially not firing his staff member fast enough); his *enormous* stature in the cfb coaching world at a University where football is king; against the backdrop of Bill Cosby, Art Briles, Penn St, etc., etc.

everyone has opinions, but no one yet knows what tOSU will do - tOSU doesn’t yet know what it will do. I’ll say this though, the longer it drags on, the greater the chance they find a way to keep Urban .....

WISEGUY36
WISEGUY36

Thanks Wise, I re-read your earlier posts more carefully.  A 92% win probability on a set of factors with over 100 trials is one hell of a proposition!  I wish you best of luck on all of these plays ...

 

GW

WISEGUY36
WISEGUY36

Question Wise - re: % of B.R. wagered, I am unsure what you mean - does B.R. stand for 'bankroll', because that suggests you are wagering 170% of your bankroll - season bankroll; weekly bankroll? I am just trying to understand what you mean by your terms. Does Kelly (which I admittedly only have a conceptual, not practical, knowledge of - nowhere near sufficient to employ it in my wagering) permit or require such large wagers particularly at the beginning of the season when many factors are not yet known?  Many thx...

GW

WISEGUY36
WISEGUY36
College Football / Week 1 / View Post

Wiseguy - 

I hear you re: the time and devotion it takes to be truly successful at any from of wagering.  Most of us on covers fall somewhere between the casual bettor and dedicated professional, including me.  I've lurked here for about ten years and have managed to actually win money two of the last three seasons - not a lot of money, but in the black which is better than most who do this.  I owe a good deal of that to perspectives and things I've learned to pay attention to from some of the best cappers on this forum; thus my repeated inquiries to those whose opinions I respect re: their reasoning and methods, rather than their 'picks.'  I learned the painful lesson years ago of betting others' picks without capping your own games utilizing methods you understand.  Thanks again for sharing with the board and best of luck in 2018!  

GW

WISEGUY36
WISEGUY36
College Football / Week 1 / View Post

Wiseguy - 

 

Thanks as always for your contributions and sharing to the general wisdom of the board. As we get closer to kickoff I look forward hopefully to more of your reasoning and your approach - how you make your power rankings, for example; how you assess various factors or situations you feel particularly important to note or that may arise.  What are the things that create value from your perspective?  I'm sure you have a lot to say on each of these subjects and more, so don't be afraid to go Dostoevsky on us here - more is better when you have something worthwhile to contribute and I (with many others I know) appreciate the education! an_cheers

GWJTF

blowoutgm
blowoutgm

Quote Originally Posted by blowoutgm:

I am offshore so I will make this short and sweet for now- Locked in Nebraska -20.5Hard looks:Stanford, Texas, BYU, Auburn, Cincy, Texas Tech, S Carolina, N Dame,and LSULooking forward to some great discussions once again! GL everyone!

 

Blowout you don't know me but I certainly admired your threads last year - one of great seasons all time of *any* capper to post on these boards.  Yourself, TD21, Wiseguy, Bookie, Nostra, MikeMed, TicoJoe, Wahoo ... others I know I'm forgetting = the best minds here.  Thanks for your picks and I look forward to your *reasoning* for your plays throughout the season - what made them a bet for you; your approach and a peak into how you cap.  This is by far the most valuable thing on this board for me - learning from the best at figuring out this crazy game we love and how to assess and recognize value and winners against the bookmaker.  Thank you for raising the IQ of the board here, and I mean that! :) 

peace_5

GWJTF

TD21
TD21

Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Quote Originally Posted by MikeMed:

  Where are you finding the FCS lines TD? THNX    
5D has most of the week 1 FBS vs. FCS lines out as of this evening.

unbelievable thread TD ! Thank you.

MikeMed
MikeMed

Boy I don’t know Mike - I could easily see the cocks at 5-1 thru those first six games, then they just have to split aTm, Tenn, and UF, Ole Miss and a win against Chattanooga is 8-4. It seems doable and I like South Carolina’s returning offense (something I never thot i’d say about a Muschamp coached team). GL to you tho ...??

gwjtf
gwjtf

Week 1

UW vs Auburn - who wins and why?  By how much and why?

ND vs Michigan - same.

peace_5

Boom_Boom
Boom_Boom
I'll give my perspective on the CFB playoff - that's all it is, one passionate fan's perspective.

First, I support having a Committee to make the selection of who enters the playoff - over some kind of formula.  The whole knock on the DI national championship thru the years has been the likelihood that in many years the best football team wasn't even afforded the opportunity to earn it on the field.  Whether thru the bowl system or the dreaded BCS, too often the consensus of those who care about the sport felt the best team was left out of the title game.

So we created a Committee and a 4 team playoff to try to ensure that does not occur.  Now we can argue, with the parity in CFB today, that 4 teams is not enough.  I happen to believe that - I have always thought, from Day 1, that the playoff should be 8 teams. But thankfully we don't argue about the benefit of having a playoff; and hopefully we don't argue too much about making sure the best team actually participates in that playoff. 

Now, assuming it gets to 8 teams in the near future, do we not believe we can assemble a committee representing the best football minds in the country to come to agreement on which are the top 8 football teams to participate in the playoff?  And, if so, can we not assume that such a committee, in its collective wisdom, will be able to include truly the best team within the 8 that it selects - every year?
  
I conclude the answer is yes.  I have been watching football for nearly 1/2 a century; I can honestly say there there has *never* in my lifetime, in my opinion, been a #9 team as ranked at the end of the season prior to the title game that was, truly, in my or anyone's (other than most biased home fans) opinion the truly best team in the country.  Not even close.  you could argue certainly no's 2, 3, 4, even 5, but never 9.

So we should go to 8 - and tell the Committee to simply pick the top 8 best teams at the end of the year in its judgment.  Trust me, the best team will be within that group.  And, thus, the playoff will have achieved its ultimate goal - making sure the best team has the opportunity to win it on the field and not be left out like it often was in bowl system or BCS.

As for this year, even with 4 teams, I think the Committee got it right. Alabama is certainly a better team than Ohio St., or UCF, and deserved to go.  So is UGA, so is Clemson, so is OU.  I can see why buckeye fans are upset, and I wish the playoff allowed for 8 teams, but the Committee picked the best team to participate as Bama is abundantly showing in this playoff.  Let us hope it grows to 8 teams.

GW
blowoutgm
blowoutgm
Agree completely with this pick as well as your reasoning/analysis.  I will always give Nick Saban his due - tremendous CFB coach.  BUT ... his stature has been enhanced by Jalen Hurts. How?  Longevity of Bama's present perch at the top of CFB.  Why?  Jalen Hurts. 

Remember beginning of last season when most of us thought or predicted that Bama would take a step back - but they didn't?  Why? Because Hurts played far beyond anyone's expectation as a freshman and especially running the ball.  His ability to extend drives with his feet, and force defenses to constantly play honest and defend against his ability to take off and gash for 30-40 yards on the ground - more than any other single thing - was responsible for Bama making the playoffs last year and almost winning it all.  Without that ability, Bama drops 2 games regular season and doesn't make the playoff - last year and this year.  Hurts ability to run takes this team from really good to championship favorite. 

That being said, I like Auburn's defense to slow them enough, as you say, to beat them at home between Kerryon running the ball and Stidham throwing it.  Auburn's defense is far and away the best they will have seen this year.  It should be a classic.

jwheels86
jwheels86
I like Auburn in this game too, but I have tended to undervalue UGA all year and have been punished for it.  The game will be close.  I think it comes down to Stidham - if he has an above average game AU wins at home; their defense will hold Georgia to a reasonable score. UGA gets to Stidham and he gets rattled or becomes too conservative and locks on to his primary as he has a tendency to do, then Auburn can become too one dimensional offensively (think 2nd half LSU game) and Georgia will win.  I think the former is more likely though....
nostradamus12
nostradamus12
Always appreciate your write-ups Nos....