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gutinstinctus
gutinstinctus

A lot of good analyses to this write up – the truth is either team is good enough to win on a given day, you’ve given a lot of justifiable reasons why the Pats could win.  From these, I’d like to highlight ones I think are the most important for this game and – why I think the Rams will win.

1.     1)       Getting to Brady. As you correctly note, you aren’t getting to Brady unless you have a bit of time; you don’t have time unless the Pats are in unfavorable down and distance.  This is why it is imperative that the Rams’ defense forces some of these situations both by limiting Pats’ run game in early downs and, generally, crowding the box in the front seven and playing a good deal of press coverage in early downs. I think the Rams’ Dline and front 7 are good enough to force enough 3rd and longs to get to Brady.  This will be a key.  When they have opportunities, they must be aggressive and bring pressure from different places. Tom Brady needs to get hit, go down a time or two, and be pressured on 8 or 10 passing attempts.  Finally, I have to say, as great as Brady is, I think he doesn’t play as well as he did to win the game against the Chiefs. Despite the two interceptions, he got into rhythm against a mediocre defense and played unbelievably as he needed to win that game. Especially if the Rams can get some pressure and limit Pats’ rushing success, he doesn’t play that well two games in a row.  He’ll be good, but not great.

 2.       Todd Gurley. This one ain’t rocket science – the best RB in football when healthy.  None of us know for sure, but if he is able to play to his capability in the biggest game of his career, with the other pieces of this prolific offense the Rams absolutely can put 30+ points against this Patriots defense.  Gurley is a gamer and if he were seriously hurt, I think we would know.  Therefore I believe he shows up and plays like the unbelievable back that he is. He will demand the attention of the entire Pats defense – and they still won’t shut him down - and that will open the rest of Rams’ offense to success, particularly as the game goes on.  This game sees more points in the second half than the first.  Rams 34; Pats 27.

NinjaNight
NinjaNight
It is a seriously perplexing situation.  Todd Gurley, when healthy, is an absolute beast.   The best all around RB in the league in my opinion.  This is not the kind of guy you sit unless there is a real health issue of some kind going on.  Yet if it were serious or sustained the Rams would have disclosed what it is.  So you just have to think it is something with an unpredictable recovery curve and they are keeping mum so as not to divulge information potentially beneficial to the opponent (?) ... I guess, idk....
scalabrine
scalabrine
Epic writeup Scalabrine.  You deserve a beer. 

GW
Boom_Boom
Boom_Boom
I have a question for you Boom re Clemson Notre Dame. The game looks like free money to me with Clemson at -11/12 - they are much more the complete team. You know Clemson as well or better than anyone - do you think there is value in this line or is it about right in your judgment. Thx!
Boom_Boom
Boom_Boom
Good to see you boom and glad you made a bowl appearance. :) One of the truly excellent football handicappers on this forum ...
WahooS
WahooS

Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

Quote Originally Posted by LoafOfBread:

hey man, noobie here with college ball- lookin to make a quick buck off a solid 2,3 team parlay after a rough turkey day terror - any highly confident plays tomorrow? Also what is your most successful betting sport? really looking for a solid knowledgable person to take me to the cash out cul-de-sac.
I’m not the guy for that as I don’t like someone depending on me, I’m better at giving advice on games members ask me aboutI had the hot hand for many weeks in a row but I’ve lost last 2 on heremy most successful is college football only because I haven’t bet the hoops consistently for several years, I just started back this year, I find the daily grind to be bad on my health with hoops so I’ve been creating a program to do the work for me, I’m in testing phases & it’s quite good thus far but we are early on in the season, still requires me to look at injuries, suspensions, spots, travel etc I can do both college football & basketball successfully though, nfl more mixed over the years & I gave up with nba even when I thought I could finally beat it, I don’t enjoy keeping up with pro sports like I do collegeI only post college football stuff now because this particular forum is the best, will put up mma from time to time & have won quite a bit in that sport most of my college hoops stuff is small program type bets, that’s where I’ve always found the value today I had Fresno & Texas so those aren’t low profile I get lots of interaction in my threads because members have seen me win enough over many many years but I’m not the guy to bail someone out unless I give a “Large Money” bet, those have hit at an absurd rate for about 14-15 years so a big sample size on the forum I’ve actually stopped posting those this season once my threads were getting too big, now that things are quieter I may bring those backI’m here to fuk off with members I’ve known forever & bsYou’ll want to look within to bail yourself out bro, I’m not that good

Hey Hoo!  How you doing?  I've been traveling a lot this season, just back to Cali from So. America and haven't really posted this year, which is a good thing because gambling-wise I'm probably going to lose $$ this season (first one in 6) unless I have a helluva bowl run.  Great threads as always ... I'm with you on Wazzou and I like Syracuse to bounce back and cover the number.... couple others.  Be well :)

 

GW

ticojoe
ticojoe
One of the few must read threads every week.  Keep up the good work TicoJoe 
biggiantkiller
biggiantkiller
Welcome back Killer  
ticojoe
ticojoe
Didn’t mean ?? .... thot I posted an emoji but I am technically challenged like that :)
ticojoe
ticojoe
Fantastic week Ticojoe. Wish I had your system but thank you much for sharing ??
jimmydafreak
jimmydafreak

Jimmy - Congratulations on a fantastic week1 overall and your Bama predictions - you obviously have a great read on this team - excellent, impressive work. ??

The returning OL starts comparison is excellent information to keep track of and consider with other factors - LA Tech was absolutely the play for all the reasons you cited for example; but from week 1’s results the 40 returning OL start differential criteria as a betting strategy ATS at the beginning of the season doesn’t appear to produce an advantage as a stand alone strategy .... were it but that easy ??... 

pepp
pepp

Gerhan/Kwan/Pepp - you guys are entitled to your opinion but u're way out of line here.  Chalk covers in the early weeks of the season, especially the first couple of weeks, and especially big chalk, in college football.  This is a well known trend.  And if you look at some of the top cappers on Covers with VERIFIED, DOCUMENTED winning seasons year after year, like Blowoutgm (over 60% last season all documented on this site); TicoJoe (also over 60% verified by his posts on the site); Nostradamus, who wins money every year for the last 10 or so - their cards this week are dominated by chalk week one, including this week.  Go check it out yourself.  You two, OTOH, have no record whatsoever.  You don't like favorites this week - fine; back it up with which ones are going to lose and which dogs are going to win, if you are so intelligent. You give us pearls of wisdom 'Dogs are everywhere' and 'be extremely careful betting favorites' ... and offer nothing but personal attacks to someone who questions your omniscience.  YOU are the joke ...

Tappy
Tappy

Quote Originally Posted by Syracuse L.J.:

Lots of good info coming from August scrimmages about Syr OL and DL. The word is that they finally look like ACC Lines and there's some depth...especially on the OL. So far, Syr has been an example of a Baylor offense that can't run the ball. Everything suggests they can run the damn ball this year.    As far as an angle on this game: Syr is motivated to not lose their focus by playing a former coach. That happened last year when Syr met MTSU. They focused on Shafer being on the other sideline...err pressbox.  They are talking openly about that not happening this year. The WMU coach, Lester, is the guy who went to Oregon and recruited Dungey to Syr.   The game is tough. WMU has all the intangibles: night game at home vs a P5 team. If Syr is "focused on being focused and taking care of business" thye come into that environment and pull out the cover.

Good Info Syracuse.  Do you believe the Orangemen will do it? :)

 

jimmydafreak
jimmydafreak

I am interested to know Jalen’s mindset at this point. After starting for two years, does he think he will get meaningful reps in games? Is he even going to try? Or has he mentally packed it in once Tua is named starter and bides his time until transfer? Imponderables perhaps but relevant to the team’s performance should Saban decide to play him significantly and of course should Tua get injured.

Jalen will land somewhere and play qb if that is what he wants. At the D1 level he is a legitimate dual threat who stretches defenses with his legs, takes care of the football, and hits over 60% of his passes without forcing too many throws or throwing too many picks. There is a place for him if that is what he wants. But he should hopefully see what the rest of the world knows and especially in the NFL; his future in the league, if he is to have one, is at a position other than QB.

 

TD21
TD21

Quote Originally Posted by TD21:

Quote Originally Posted by a1_tellem:

Hey Td big fan and long time follower.    With you on most of your games especially Cuse & miss st in week 2. Mind givin is a short (or long) one line write about your perspective on those games? Also your thoughts on the jams Madison +14
a1, I might have to go with the short version on some  parts of these.  Limited time is the norm for me.I think the Syracuse offense matches up pretty well with the WMU as long as QB Dungey is healthy.  The +/- ATS margin #s for Syracuse last year with Dungey starting vs. other QBs starting at the end of the year were staggering (*but it is tough to quantify how much of those results are from the defense cratering to end the year as well).  Despite new #1  WR options, I think Dungey and this offense will put up enough points to cover.  This should also be the best Syracuse rushing offense since Babers arrived.  The WMU defense is looking for answers at DT.  And for those unaware, you can cross off CB Sam Beal in your Phil Steele.  It's no longer listed on Don Best, but the 2018 preseason all MAC CB was ineligible and went into the NFL supplemental draft.  So both he and CB D. Phillips are gone.  WMU does look solid at DE and Safety and the new LBs have speed and upside.  I do like the WMU offense with QB Wassink healthy and better experience coming back this year.  They may get a few points on Syracuse, but I just think they (Syracuse) put up more on WMU and outscore them.  The Syracuse D-Line is the relative strength of this defense.  LBs completely new.  The Secondary is at least experienced although could be thin on depth beyond the starting unit.  And I did bet this game immediately when it opened, so I have a solid # working for me as well.For Mississippi State, short answer is I just think they are better than most people are giving them credit for.  My preseason PR# ratings have them at #10 or #11 overall I believe it is (about the same as Michigan).  The new HC steps into a great situation.  Unless QB Fitzgerald suffers an unexpected setback, they should simply be the better team here that laying only a FG as road chalk does not bother me.  I once knew a strong Xs & Os college football mind  and Moorhead's offensive mind reminds me of that and I think he'll do very well in year 1 and should really improve their passing game as well....

Brav - fuckin' - 'O.... great work as always TD ... keep 'em coming when you have time ... an_clap

Irish7878
Irish7878

What makes this so interesting is no one knows what OSU is going to do. Even if we all knew the actual facts, which we don’t yet, we still don’t know what the university will ultimately do. The combination of societie’s shifting attitudes and tolerance for this kind of thing; coupled with Urban’s relatively mild transgression (I.e., essentially not firing his staff member fast enough); his *enormous* stature in the cfb coaching world at a University where football is king; against the backdrop of Bill Cosby, Art Briles, Penn St, etc., etc.

everyone has opinions, but no one yet knows what tOSU will do - tOSU doesn’t yet know what it will do. I’ll say this though, the longer it drags on, the greater the chance they find a way to keep Urban .....

WISEGUY36
WISEGUY36

Thanks Wise, I re-read your earlier posts more carefully.  A 92% win probability on a set of factors with over 100 trials is one hell of a proposition!  I wish you best of luck on all of these plays ...

 

GW

WISEGUY36
WISEGUY36

Question Wise - re: % of B.R. wagered, I am unsure what you mean - does B.R. stand for 'bankroll', because that suggests you are wagering 170% of your bankroll - season bankroll; weekly bankroll? I am just trying to understand what you mean by your terms. Does Kelly (which I admittedly only have a conceptual, not practical, knowledge of - nowhere near sufficient to employ it in my wagering) permit or require such large wagers particularly at the beginning of the season when many factors are not yet known?  Many thx...

GW

WISEGUY36
WISEGUY36
College Football / Week 1 / View Post

Wiseguy - 

I hear you re: the time and devotion it takes to be truly successful at any from of wagering.  Most of us on covers fall somewhere between the casual bettor and dedicated professional, including me.  I've lurked here for about ten years and have managed to actually win money two of the last three seasons - not a lot of money, but in the black which is better than most who do this.  I owe a good deal of that to perspectives and things I've learned to pay attention to from some of the best cappers on this forum; thus my repeated inquiries to those whose opinions I respect re: their reasoning and methods, rather than their 'picks.'  I learned the painful lesson years ago of betting others' picks without capping your own games utilizing methods you understand.  Thanks again for sharing with the board and best of luck in 2018!  

GW

WISEGUY36
WISEGUY36
College Football / Week 1 / View Post

Wiseguy - 

 

Thanks as always for your contributions and sharing to the general wisdom of the board. As we get closer to kickoff I look forward hopefully to more of your reasoning and your approach - how you make your power rankings, for example; how you assess various factors or situations you feel particularly important to note or that may arise.  What are the things that create value from your perspective?  I'm sure you have a lot to say on each of these subjects and more, so don't be afraid to go Dostoevsky on us here - more is better when you have something worthwhile to contribute and I (with many others I know) appreciate the education! an_cheers

GWJTF

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