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Thread Author theclaw Post Entries
theclaw
theclaw
KC did fall back with pubilc %'s but are now back to the highest % at 70% tied with Vikings.

Public should get it done today after getting crushed last week and beat up in week 1, They got off to a good start on thursday night with the Browns getting their 1st win in a long time.

 Seems many here on the site like the 9ers today, really looking forward to this game, we'll see what Mahomes can do after he got what seems like alot of pats on the back, hopefully he stays focused and rolls on.

If he does not play as well, very likely Chiefs defense plays better and bails the Chiefs out for the win and cover.

When we add in Jimmy G really makes this game are very interesting and exciting game to look forward to watching.




theclaw
theclaw
CBS super computer also took Ravens winning 60% of simulations over Broncos.

Broncos QBPR is dreadful at 73.6 and defense gives up 108.9 = (-35.3). Might be the only team in history 2-0 while being CRUSHED in QBPR

Thet get out-played in every area of QBPR, COMPLETION %, TD %, INT %, and ave per pass attempt and not by a small amount but a fairly large amount in each area.

They do make up some ground with sacks, 9.7 % while getting sacked only 2.6 % a huge 7.1 % difference.

That brings the ave per pass attempt down from (-1.6) before sacks to only (-.2) after sacks. Still not good but not dreadfull either.

They do dominate the running game out-gaining opps by 79 yards per game.

Even with the running game and sacks Broncos need to improve their QBPR diff today or they won't hang with the Ravens. Doubt they have the ability, Case was most likely a 1 year wonder who fell into the right situation for him and got lucky as well.

When we look back at QB's over history many will have that 1 standout year that they never seem to duplicate again and for Case that will likely be last year.

Hopefully the computer will be right with the Ravens and wrong on the other games.............................


theclaw
theclaw
Sun, Mon, Thurs, night football............................leans 1-1

Browns got it done. But was not Tyrod, he was not very good when he had opprtunities for the most part. a 39 QBPR, but in his defense, the Jets blitzed quite a bit and had guys unblocked on him in no time at all.

And the coaches did not seem to make any adjustments to help him, 
he did have time on some plays, had a couple of wide open long plays but threw short each time , those oppurtunities were there for him to score on and a few others as well.

Tyrod is a great running QB with a high sack rate which indicates he can not read defenses very well and won't get the ball out quick on blitz, and the Jets were after him quite a bit with the blitz which really limited what he could do and the coaches seem to not make adjustments.

Darnold had a dreadful 38 QBPR with Baker a 100. Very strong start for Baker, but didn't Darnold start strong, I think he had a 116 QBPR HIS 1st game.


The game had the highest watch game in 3 years on NFL network for those who said nobody cared or would watch this matchup.


fadeaway123
fadeaway123
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Not rigged. It's football.

Mayfield>Taylor


Plus, did anyone notice the Browns oline actually started blocking for Mayfield...



Thanks for that info, I fell asleep during the game, and was wondering if that was the case or if Baker was getting rid of the ball quicker then Tyrod who is not a quick release expert.

Jets were coming unblocked right to Tyrod, he had no chance and the coaches made no adjustments.

Run a QB draw or quick screens but they did not, at least get somebody to block , but nothing.
theclaw
theclaw
Looky, looky, looky, the public needed a win and they got one, sometimes the house needs a win and they get one but the same happens to the public.

The public just might be in for a good week this week, good news is every play we made the public is on. Just the way it worked out.

The 67% games and better were a dreadful 2-5 last week, Browns did have 67% on them right up till game day but dropped to 66%.

Don't be surprised if the bigger %'s do well this week, KC was the biggest % play but have not checked this morn.

Seems many are fading KC this week because Mahomes can not sustain his play, but the defense giving up 508 yards per game will not sustain that either, so even if Mahomes plays not as well the defense can and almost certainly will get better.

CBS super computer did pick 49ers +6.5 and the Rams, going Against 2 of our picks. We'll see where the chips fall.
theclaw
theclaw
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL.....................................

Browns should be, could be, would have been 2-0, alot of talk on how that can not winm games.

But that was VS playoff calibre teams, and they did come back down 14 in the 4th VS Steelers, not like that didn't prove something. This is not the same Browns team, playing at home VS  a much weaker opp and looking to get the monkey off their backs.

And Tyrod has a history of passing the ball very well VS weaker teams, he seems to struggle VS the better teams.

I would look for Tyrod to come up big tonight .

The public got buried last weekend and they did not do well week 1, this is a great spot to ride the public in a regression play  and back the Browns.


 LEAN --- Browns -3 over Jets 
theclaw
theclaw
Westgate Super Football Contest........................5-5

Eagles
Chargers
Ravens 
KC
Bucs

we had 1 team left out which was Cowboys, we'll see if we added the right 2 teams KC and Bucs instead of the Boys.
theclaw
theclaw
60% METHOD...............................

we have 3 fades this week, Rams, Colts and Broncos all 3 teams were no-where near as good as they look last week and for the Rams this is the 2cd week in a row their play on the field was not close to the final scores in their games.

Rams could be in deep regression if they cover this week, unsustainable level of play at this point.

Chargers -7 over Rams ...... 6 units to win 5
Eagles -6.5 over Colts ........5.5 units
Ravens -5.5 over Broncos ...5.5 units
DogbiteWilliams
DogbiteWilliams
I see, they are tied for 29-31 in sacks, but they are 6th in yards and 4th in INT and 2cd in defense passer rating, those last 2 things which Rams rank very high , 4th and 2cd are far more important then sacks, have far better predictive value.


DogbiteWilliams
DogbiteWilliams
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

I have to revise my opinion based on new information and a jogging of my faulty memory.

Football Outsiders now rates the Rams as their clear #1 choice to win the SB.  Their current percentages (updated weekly):

LAR   19.3
MIN     7.8
NE      7.6
KC      7.2
PHL    5.4

FO has JAC ranked #11 - 3.6%, weaker than NE, KC, PIT and CIN (???) in the AFC.  Let your skepticism run amok.

I also forgot about Wild Bill's 3 Blowouts playoff system which I myself have featured in my personal playoff topics the last 2 years.  The Rams already have 2 blowouts, so they deserve a lot of respect.

How many times do you think the team number 1 after 2 weeks is number 1 at the end of the season ?

Now that'd be a very interesting question to ask ?

FO DVOA is  not predictive, FO has said this themselves,  but tell you what a team has done up to this point.

Didn't they have Steelers no 1 or no 2 at start of season ?

Way to early and far to much a small sample size to mean anything at this point.

Rams look loaded on offense and very good on defense but hard to say as we don't know yet how good their 2 opps areor aren't , although winning big VS weak opps is still a very good indicator but  and for all we know right now those might be the 2 best games they play all season.

DogbiteWilliams
DogbiteWilliams
Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

They have blown out OAK and AZ, both of whom lost their other games.  The Ram's passing defense is ranked #31 at NFL dot com and they have only 2 sacks.

How is that possible ? Passing yards given up is like 5th or 6th and the most important stat is Defensive Passer Rating which right now is on an historically great level.

With all that said, Rams playing on an unsustainable level and will be going down ATS very soon.

Does not mean they are over-rated but way to early to know.
handicap6272
handicap6272
Yes flawed, the other thing your missing is although you get reduced juice late in week, how many times does the line move to your advantage late in the week ?

It won't always move to your disadvantage unless your backing the teams all the other money backs which may not be the best option for you anyway.


zebrakiller
zebrakiller
Here's the problem drawing up senerio's AFTER THE FACT.

How would you know exactly which game to start betting against the Browns and when to stop betting against the Browns on the ML ?

Looking back it is so easy to say that but looking forward it is impossible to know that.

Who right now looking forward will lose 3 straight ATS ?  Or which team looking forward will lose 10 games in a row or 7 games or every game till the end of the season on ML ?

After the next 3 weeks looking back you can easily say had I bet against this team I'd of won 3 straight ATS , BUT HOW CAN YOU KNOW THAT RIGHT NOW ?


theclaw
theclaw
LEAN --- sEATTLE +4.5 OVER bEARS 
theclaw
theclaw
Opps +7 yes 

was +7 at -110 yesterday, yea dropping already, thought it might but didn't make the move coz you never know.
theclaw
theclaw

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Westgate football contest...........................Jags +1Bucs +3.5Broncos -6Vikings -7Cards +12.5Toughest team to leave out was KC, decided between KC and Zona, hopefully I made the right choice.Next week will start our 60% method and week 4 starts the bounce factor.Both methods did not do as well last season and should be ready for a bounce back season.We won't take any action this week, wait till these  methods can give us more solid plays.

 

week .........2-3

season...... 5-5

 

son of a gun, we made the wrong choice between Zona or KC.

 

KC made all the right plays  in 4th quarter while Steeler offense was making bad throws, holding penalties and such. Steeler offense played much better untill it matter most, then 3 and outs with very poor throws and/or receiver mistakes and  one time having a 3rd and 25 after holding calls.

We might be on Bucs next week over Steelers. consideration as of now

 

theclaw
theclaw
Chargers -7 (-120) over Rams --- 6 units to win 5 units

Want to get this game in at 7 as line is dropping already, more picks to come.
theclaw
theclaw

Quote Originally Posted by BettingMessiah:

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Westgate football contest...........................Jags +1Bucs +3.5Broncos -6Vikings -7Cards +12.5Toughest team to leave out was KC, decided between KC and Zona, hopefully I made the right choice.Next week will start our 60% method and week 4 starts the bounce factor.Both methods did not do as well last season and should be ready for a bounce back season.We won't take any action this week, wait till these  methods can give us more solid plays.
Good luck in your contest...what is the highest you have finished in the contest in the past????

 

FINISHED 2 GAMES OUT THE MONEY AND 3 GAMES OUT THE MONEY.

theclaw
theclaw

Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

Good luck in the contest.I am not a fundamental handicapper, but I did take a gander at Football Outsiders' OL and DL ratings.  Roethlisberger should have decidedly more time to find an open target than Mahomes.I am a dogbite, not a chalkbite, but I lean to PIT.

 

Possibly but Steelers are not that good, they are middle of the league past 2 years on offense in yards per point and they did it again in week 1.

Steelers are one of more over-rated teams and offenses in the league and they were 2cd worst in expected wins to the Bills last season.

I think alot of people will like Steelers to bounce back and not going winless after 2 weeks  playing at home but every year we see teams not expected to start winless after 2 weeks  but they do and then they go winless after 3 weeks..

Steelers also were out-playd by Browns and should of lost by 11.49 points, another indicator they are not very good, we always side with play on the field not final score. Play on the field is more predictive.

Steelers also off a tie OT game so now you have 2 bad spots for the Steelers and they are middle of the league in yards per point past 2 years AND THEY STARTED DREADFUL WEEK 1 IN YARDS PER POINT 

For same reason would like the Browns but coming off a tie OT game is not good. 

theclaw
theclaw

Quote Originally Posted by Dubfire:

would love to hear your thoughts on Vikings/Packers. good luck this week.

 

Backing the Vikings as they out-play 9ers by far more then the final score in the game but got a bad number on the game. Contest must been assuming Rodgers would't play.