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Thread Author calinreddog Post Entries
Maxi111
Maxi111
Dogs bark?
calinreddog
calinreddog
Quote Originally Posted by steveshane67:

you realize points/game is the dumbest way to evaluate totals right?

points per possession and pace are what matter.

take the bobcats, they allow a low pt/game but thats bc they play a very slow style of ball.  to use the pt/game "approach" when they play an uptempo team is shortsighted


Maybe it's dumb, i don't know, but it works for hockey and soccer where scoring is a completely different process and i thought to try it for basketball.
I don't know much about basketball but it looks like the pace is everything when it comes about totals.
BatmanOfBetting
BatmanOfBetting
Quote Originally Posted by BatmanOfBetting:

I am starting with $100 dollars and I want to turn it into 100,000.

 My question is would it be better to pick 1 game at a time and risk losing it all at once?

Or say bet $10 a game and slowly increase the amount of my bets over time. Say after I win 500 dollars switch to $20 a bet and so on and so on?

Rob a bank. The odds to not get caught by police are better.
calinreddog
calinreddog
Yesterday results:

NBA
mil-pho under 213
NCAAB
can-siena under 141
eill-murst under 129.5
oklst-okl under 147
loute-boist under 148.5
sjst-frsno under 140
nmexs-idaho under 150

NBA 1-0
NCAAB 3-3
calinreddog
calinreddog
NCAAB:

can@siena under 141
eill@murst under 129.5
oklst@okl under 147
loute@boist under 148.5
sjst@frsno under 140
nmexs@idaho under 150

sniperswife
sniperswife
Quote Originally Posted by smitler:

It amazes me how posters get these lines.
I have three books that all say 97.
Where are you getting your lines?


The books are reading what posters are writing and move the lines accordingly. If they see DET@CHI 1st half over 96 the best 1st half bet they say "Hey, let's move it to 97 to see if remains the best bet!"
calinreddog
calinreddog
I will try to adjust my hockey and soccer under strategy (as described in the post above) to see how it works for basketball.
In soccer and hockey the differential is 1 goal, the maximum amount of points that can be scored in one offensive action. They can't score more than 1 point at a time. In basketball the maximum amount of points they can score by an offensive action is 3 points, so i should take 3 points differential when i pick the plays.
For instance, in soccer total is listed at 2.5 and i take a bet when the sum of defenses is at most 2 goals, 1 goal under what would be the over. Same for hockey.
So, for basketball i would take the under when the sum of defenses is at least 3 points under the posted total. That means i sum the defensive averages for home team (when playing at home) and for road team (when plyaing on the road) and if the result is 3 or more points less than the total posted by the bookie i'll take the under.

I looked at todays matchups (NBA) and the only game that suites this criteria would be Milwaukee @ Phoenix : Buckes allow 95.6 points/game on the road and Suns allow 105.3 points/game at home. The sum is 200.9 points and the total posted is 213. The difference is 12.1 points so i'll take it as un under.
There is another interesting game, MIN @ DEN where the sum is 212.5 and the total posted is 215 now. But the line moved 2 points. They opened 217 at Pinnacle and they are now 215. There would be a play at at least 215.5 but with the line movement i don't think it's wise to take the under.

So, one NBA play: MIL@PHO under 213
calinreddog
calinreddog
Quote Originally Posted by PatrickBateman:

calin,

I don't think you should give up on this...however, I think you might want to re-evaluate your approach. The books know these statistics you are talking about and set the O/U accordingly. That being said, why not play the OVER in these situations?

I think to win at sports betting you have to think in a contrarian way... If it was easy as beating the books by using the statistics the way they do and the way they use it to manipulate the public, then we would all be rich. The situations you are pointing out scream UNDER, usually means the book knows this and thus the play would be OVER.

What do you think?


What you're saying makes a lot of sense... but if the sum of the defensive averages is under the posted total i wouldn't play over.

As a matter of fact, i use a similar strategy for soccer and hockey totals and it works pretty good, but scoring in hockey and soccer is a poisson process, completely different. For instance today i was 2-0 (one soccer under and one hockey under).
For soccer i pick situations where the defensive average (sum) is at most 2 goals / game wich means very strong defensives.
For hockey i pick situations where the sum of defenses is at most 5 goals / game.
The best situations are those when top teams meet. They both have veryy strong strong defenses but also very strong offenses and the bookies come up with value odds for the under. Usually a confrontation between top defenses ends up in an under.

farmboy1966
farmboy1966
Quote Originally Posted by zooyorkinc:

This system isn't as easy as it originally seemed.  I've been in the streets all weekend and have not seen 1 capper running.  Is there a particular time when the streets are capper heavy?  We need more info please.




You didn't get it right my friend: you have to wait untill they lose 1 bet. After they lose 1 bet they start running on the streets.
farmboy1966
farmboy1966
I didn't understand what you're saying...
Should we find a capper that runs in the streets...?
SmboInc
SmboInc
Quote Originally Posted by Diamondjake:

Im just glad you quit postin calin.

Try being glad in a silent way, i was expressing an opinion related to betting systems for sale and that is on topic.
If you posted 769 replies like this one... you're a smart guy ... and very interesting...
calinreddog
calinreddog
Quote Originally Posted by Diamondjake:

This is exactly what I mean.....how is this helpful? Run the numbers before you put this useless trash on the board. Thanks  

Do you have something to say?
Strategy related, maybe?
SmboInc
SmboInc
If you would find the perfect system (or almost perfect) would sell it for money or would you use it to bet and get rich from betting?
calinreddog
calinreddog
I have no results at this moment, but it should work fine:
Every day or night pick the game with the lowest defensive numbers on the board and play under. That means you should sum the defensive averages for both teams (how many points do they allow per game).
For instance, tonight:
The game with the lowest defensive numbers is Cleveland at Portland. Cleveland defense allows an avg. of 93.8 points / game and Portland defense allows 93.8 points / game. That means 187.6 points per game for both defenses. You can find the numbers on Covers NBA scoreboard under "Matchup".
For those who like chasing you can chase the under by this criteria increasing stakes. But stick to one game per day.

Good Luck!
calinreddog
calinreddog
MLB Betting / Monday treble / View Post
Joey, Target, Thatsagoodone,


6.95 x
babs1540
babs1540
MLB Betting / I cant lose!! / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by geopackiv:

Physiology n. The biological study of the functions of living organisms and their parts.
 
Psychology n. is an academic and applied discipline involving the scientific study of human mental functions and behavior.
 
 


But you got to admit that behavior, emotions and reasonning strongly rely on physiological processes....



tiedup2night
tiedup2night
boston ml.
calinreddog
calinreddog
I meant I based my O/U picks on the  L10 W/L records... sorry about that...
calinreddog
calinreddog
I played the O/U during the last week basing my picks on the last 10 O/U records.
I thought motivated team (positive record L10, 6-4 or bigger) hit better and if both teams are motivated the O/U result should be over and under if both teams are below 5 wins L10.
The overs hit pretty good (3/4) but the unders didn't.
Has anyone studied a corelation between L10 W/L and O/U for long term?
calinreddog
calinreddog
MLB Betting / Monday treble / View Post
TB vs. LAA over 9.5
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