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Thread Author cappervin Post Entries

DegenGamble
Quote Originally Posted by dplewis34:

I am needing help in excel. I am tracking records of multiple systems and I want to add the records up. Currently my formula is =left(B1,1)+left(B2,3) etc. With the records changing from say 9-0 to 10-0 it messes up the formula and I have to change the number of characters from 1 to 2. Is there an easier formula I can use for this. For instance: left(B1,everything left of "-")
I think this formula will get you what you are looking for...
=LEFT(B1,FIND("-",B1)-1)

TheEtrain
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I like this idea, but it can be scary when there is a bad losing streak. Last year the top fave had winning streaks of 6, 9, 9, 7. Not sure I'd be able to chase this for 7-10 games. How many units would that 10th game be for and how many would you be down at that point?

I think I saw on here the betting progression is 1-5 units for the first 5 games. What is it for games 6-10?

The Top Dog having an extended losing streak is more likely than the "Top Favorite" having one.  I checked 2011-2012 and similar to what Dan said about last year, there were many extended Fave streaks of 4-9 games.  There were only a handful of Top Dog winning streaks longer than 2 games. Thus it might be a better idea to play the Top Favorite every night.  At least that way you are playing with the stronger teams in the league.  Yeah it is heavy juice but at least you're not chasing with lousy teams.  Plus you can lay off the really big numbers and press a little to try and catch one of those streaks. Just my .02.
bol

cappervin
Quote Originally Posted by Bart_:

I uploaded my data to Google Drive which you should be able to download. Here is the link:

Awesome! Thank you Bart. Chive on!

cappervin
Does anyone have a source for historic NFL data (lines and results) that can be pulled into excel?
I tried using Degan's excellent covers data importer but i am running an older version of excel and the macros won't work properly.
thanks all

DegenGamble
NoSoLucky, I get what you are saying.  I was just backing up Degan's stats and sharing some of my own.  After playing along with this system for the past month I actually was leaning towards only playing the NO as well. NO trends by individual teams are far more prolonged than YES trends and the lines for NO are always a bit steeper than YES.  The line-makers know what they are doing, right?
I am filing this for next season as well as football is upon us and soon after basketball and hockey.  With that said, does anyone have an early season NFL system with good results?

DegenGamble
Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24:

I did a little checking and for the year it's almost 50-50 on if a run is scored in the 1st inning. I looked at all games and it's 50.6% NO for the season. Numbers are close as I did this by hand, but the point is you're looking at a 50/50 proposition each time with no filters.

Looking at my post #103, the breakdown for the first 25 official series works out to 23 YES, 23 NO on all games bet in those chases. Not sure what it's been after that, I haven't tracked it. While betting on Yes - 11 Yes, 9 NO, while betting NO - 14 NO, 12 Yes. Barely above 50%.

Given that, I was wondering if this proposition would work well betting the +Odds when available. I'd think anytime you have a 50% chance of winning and getting odds there has to be a decent play there somewhere. The 3 game chase does give you 3 opportunities to hit a 50/50 proposition though. I do like those odds as well.

I did a little back testing for 2012 and I came up with about 53/47 Y/N, so I would agree with your 50/50 assessment.
I also looked at 1st inning scores for a series.
-Out of 782 series, 103 series (13%) had ALL Y games in the series and 80 (10%) had ALL N games.
-Also, after a series goes all games with either ALL Y or ALL N the next series will be ALL Y or ALL N about 12% of the time.

I will try to plug my analysis into other seasons to see if the numbers hold true, but my guess is that they will.

louris54
I like the way you think louris.  I've had the idea of starting small and doubling bets with a set target for a while but haven't found the right scenario to follow.  I think you may be on to something.  Good luck.

BCap888
Nice work BCap.  I'll be following along this season.
I myself am just getting familiar with sportsdatabase (thanks to 1958a) and hope to uncover some good systems with it this season.

cappervin
Four plays for today;

Tampa  +105  @ Carolina
NY Rangers +115  @ Montreal
NY Islanders +110 @ Buffalo
Calgary -110 vs Minnesota

season 20-12 +9units

cappervin
NHL Betting / Friday 2/22 NHL / View Post
Vancouver -110 @ Nashville

Winner, winner!

cappervin
One play tonight and its the Canucks

Vancouver -110 @ Nashville

season: 19-12  +8.0 units

cappervin
General question for the forum...
If you have a system where you create your own lines, how do you react when the line you create is equal to the posted line?  Do you pass on that game as having no advantage? Or do you favor playing a particular side, maybe the favorite?

cappervin
I took a few days off to enhance my NHL system.  I added injuries and starting goalies into the equation and hopefully it will result in more winners.

Late games tonight:
Los Angeles  +105 @Calgary
St Louis -114 @ Colorado

cappervin
After a 1-2 (-.8 unit) day Saturday I am bouncing back today with 3 winners.

Chicago -135 vs Los Angeles
Detroit +115 at Minnesota
Dallas -125 vs Calgary

cappervin
Another 2 wins last night with Pittsburgh and St Louis.  My NHL record this season is 7-2 (documented) and 16-7 overall.

Todays plays;
Tampa Bay -112 Florida
Ottawa +120 Toronto

good luck

cappervin
Great.  That looks promising if I can figure out the language.  I appreciate the response.

cappervin
Does anyone know where I can get NHL scores by period that can be pulled into Excel?  All the sources I check only have scoring by period in the individual game box scores.

thanks

cappervin
I waited too long to get my plays in and Pitt shot up to -150.  I still took them but with slightly less at stake.  On the flip side the St Louis line dropped to -125.

cappervin
Back in the action after a day off on Thursday.  Getting the party started with two plays, Pittsburgh and St Louis.

Pittsburgh -135 Winnipeg
St Louis -130 Calgary

cappervin
Ok I'm taking Dallas.  I was able to get +120 which is too good to pass up.

Dallas +120 over Calgary

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