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Thread Author kvs23 Post Entries
AussieDownUnder
AussieDownUnder
Aussie - WTF man?  I know you are 86-60 for season with a win % of 59%.  I know you are 26 games over .500.  I know you been on a hot streak for 2H of season.  I know you always give "true" lines and don't fudge lines/record.  But, c'mon man, you are only as good as your last game.  And that's 0-1.  Please explain your poor results.

J/K. J/K.

Thanks again for an awesome season.  Will follow you in women's hoops coming up.  Always look forward to your picks!.

Thanks for all - and hopefully you will have a playoff pick here and there - otherwise see you in the WNBA forums soon.


ragingstorm
ragingstorm
NBA Betting / 302-270 / View Post
100% second softballmaniac's comment.

Amazing job over 600 games!!!  Kudos to you!!!

Hope your personal stuff is okay - you mentioned recently you were tied up with life stuff - take care - and be good.  Life is first, basketball picks much lower on priority.

Great work this season!  But, agree that a more honest record will really get you A LOT more followers in here.

Keep crushing.  And looks like your baseball season pick on fire again - you are magic with those - kudos!!!

Also - if you ever in NYC let me know - would love to chat live with you.

BTW - I think you do a lot better if you cap fewer games (like last year).

600 games means you had an opinion on basically 50% of ALL NBA games all season long.
- do you really think books are off on SO MANY games?
- I think curating your picks to 200ish a season will really improve your ROI and win/loss.

Good luck!!!


StraightWagers
StraightWagers
NBA Betting / Pacers ML / View Post
SW - was thinking about you tonight.  OMG the Friday night unders went to WTF is going on with scores today lol.

Good luck on 2H play!
AussieDownUnder
AussieDownUnder
Yes SW - will do - I think it was you (maybe not) who had the UNDERS 28 days after teams had bad scoring games - with a strong biological angle for the play.  I peek in that forum - will definitely do again this year.

Thanks for the chatting - and sorry OZ for hijacking your thread.
AussieDownUnder
AussieDownUnder
Last comment (sorry for hogging it today).

How crazy was RW 20-20-20?
- it's super hard to get a triple double in a game.  he had 2 triple doubles in the same game lol.  finished it mid game - and did another one - in a 48 minutes game.
AussieDownUnder
AussieDownUnder
I remember totals of 170s or even 160s at times with certain teams.

Maybe (not saying this is true) that a human needs 30ish milliseconds to respond to stimuli (like i see a bee, let me shush it away) - and before a player took 30-32 milliseconds to make a dribble move and we could defend it but now players can do in 28-30 milliseconds and humans can't keep up to step in front of it.

Yes, I agree there might be some "laziness" - but structurally there might be reasons scores are up.
- more humans in world can shoot 3pts at a 42% clip - so before besides starters + 1/2 bench players - there was slower scoring, now Clippers got crazy scorers deep on bench, etc.

Before humans can only run 36 minutes without fatigue - now they can do 38 (so less bench time).

Also rule changes - no touching on D, more bumps = fouls.

Also, $$$ involved.  Before $2-5b enterprise, now $20b (just making #s up) - so clearly "fans" (most of them) want stimulii/action (i.e. poster dunks, big 3s) - not weave and bob offensive schemes which are hard to understand/appreciate or triangle offense with exact spacing etc.

All that being said, yes "scoring" can go up for a variety of reasons, but like always the over/under mix will be 50-50 or roughly so.
- Vegas got a good deal of nerds running the numbers - they will be close on the median scores.

But, YES I love NFL games of 13-6 score - but clearly game is moving to the 41-38 shoot-outs.  To me, NFL under (games) are the best - every play carries "more weight" - every block or yard, or trick play, is more valuable but that's not the market drift of the game.

I don't know why I rant so much in this thread (I generally NEVER say anything) - but SW and OZ get my brain thinking - and just want to remind people not to have "selective" memories.  NBA O/U always gonna be 50/50 by season's end.  Need to figure out the reasons why a single game goes one way
- I literally can't name 30 players in league so I have no idea on any given game lol



AussieDownUnder
AussieDownUnder
SW - also it's not as if pace wasn't right on.

Simple math (I know this is wrong as DAVEMSH discusses the 1H is not 50% of game).

But, 230 / = 57.5 per quarter
Q1 = 56
Q2 = 58
Q3 = 54

So game besides 4Q - yes was under - but not by so much (to your point - unders are squeeking thru - overs are smashing thru) - but again why I think betting 1/4 unit on every Q might be better solution.

I think today Q1, Q2, and Q3 all went under (since 1H was higher than 50% of game) - and Q4 went over - so that would be +0.5 units (instead of -1unit).

Obviously small sample (1 game lol) - but it's a strategy to implement when the averages are exceeding medians by a bunch.  (The average Q > Median Q - which is happening b/c of 1 spurt)

GLGLGL.
AussieDownUnder
AussieDownUnder
Nice hit OZ!

Crazy 4Q.

SW - I love your work - you know that.

Remember so far in NBA season:
581 overs
585 unders
- so MORE games go under
- yes we discussed that under is more of a "sweat" and there are CRAZY quarters from time to time

Maybe (even though Qs are higher juice) - if you like an under - just bet 1/4 of unit on each Q instead of 1u on the game.
- I think that strategy would yield better results (even with higher juice) b/c yes it seems to be "scoring in 1 crazy spurt" that is killing unders.

Nice hit OZ - end season strong bud.

GLGL all.

StraightWagers
StraightWagers
No SW - c'mon just feels like that.

If overs are -130 and unders are +140 - just bet every under and you would be up 200+ units in NBA.  (I think you meant to say -140 and +130) - but even then betting every under would be up 150+ units in NBA.

It's our psychology that is tricking us... but yes in the last 7 days overs are near 60%, but in the last 30 days, they are UNDER 50%.

Good luck for last week of season!


AussieDownUnder
AussieDownUnder
Nice hit OZ!


StraightWagers
StraightWagers
Dave - good question.

Function of a lot of things - such as:
line and o/u - in a close line - the 2H has HIGHER chance of fouling at end
team stats - some teams "lock down" in 4Q more frequently than others

but yes it is "weird" in college it is always 65 for 1H and like 75 for 2H for a 140 total - but in NBA - not true.

But, I am willing to bet almost all teams are 50-50 on 1H overs/unders (or the distribution is "normal") - obviously some team will crush one way but that is expected with a "normal" coin flip too.

StraightWagers
StraightWagers
This is same as O/U in NE Patriots games for years.

The total would be 47/48/48.5 - and to win under score would be close 24-17, 24-21, 31-10, etc. but overs crushed it.

But, doesn't matter - the line is the MEDIAN not the AVERAGE.

Yes, you are correct OVERS probably beating by bigger margin on average (obviously b/c 3OT games beat line by 50 but don't beat unders by 50).

But, doesn't matter - all that matters is literally they are 50-50 so if you asked a BLIND SQUIRREL - he would have much success with overs and unders.

But, yes UNDERS cause a lot more hair loss and increase ulcers than taking OVERS lol.


StraightWagers
StraightWagers
SW - love your work as always.

Dave - 100% agree that probably some good line value early in playoffs for unders.

BTW, I know it DOES NOT FEEL LIKE IT, but so far this season in NBA:
574 overs
573 unders

It feels like games are ALL overs - but give the books some credit lol.

Good luck to all - love your stuff SW - can't wait for the next 33 bagger lol.
- btw loved your OVER on sunday night with Conley/Val playing - analysis and gameflow was SPOT ON.
StraightWagers
StraightWagers
Great work SW!

Thanks for the play and pick/analysis.

Well done!
StraightWagers
StraightWagers
Still like OVER tonight?

Conley and Val = IN

Love your work - thanks so much!
AussieDownUnder
AussieDownUnder
Oz - thanks!

Good stuff!
AussieDownUnder
AussieDownUnder
NBA Betting / ***Monday Hoops / View Post
Nice hit Oz!

Thanks again!!!


AussieDownUnder
AussieDownUnder
NBA Betting / ***Friday Hoops / View Post
Stop with the 0-2 nonsense.

Rockets pushed.

Oz is a BEAST and on this "supposed" cold streak he is 4-5-1 in his last 10.  So down 1.5 units (including juice) in last 10 bets.  I WISH I had cold streaks like that.  Mine are like 1 win, 6 losses, or 2 wins, 9 losses lol.

Keep it up OZ.  This season has been great!!!
AussieDownUnder
AussieDownUnder
GL buddy.  Thanks for everything (as usual)

AussieDownUnder
AussieDownUnder
If you had been unfortunate enough to tail ALL his picks, well you would have won 78 and now lost 55.
Win 78 units
Lose 55 units + 5.5 juice units

Let me get my calculator out - hmmm, I think you would have won $$$  tailing all his picks.

Short term variance is just that - short term variance.  And as Oz points out he is 4-4 in his last 8 anyways.

Good luck to all!!!


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