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Thread Author worthashot Post Entries
LW 2-1 minus 0.4 units  Season 2-1 minus 0.4 units

Atl-6 vs. Car

Falcons should be steamed after another close loss to Philly LW.   This is a divisional rivalry and normally
6 would be a little heavy.  Carolina sustained numerous injuries against Dallas  on both sides of the ball, however, and
I'm thinking that should provide enough justification to take the home team here. 

Atl-6 vs. Car   one unit

TB +3.5 vs. Phi

If Ryan Fitz plays like he did last week this will be easy.  That's the trouble with week he looks like 
a million and the next he throws 4 ints.  Foles didn't exactly light things up LW vs. Atl. with a lousy 119 yds.  
and they are on the road.  I'll take the home dog.

TB+3.5 vs. Phi  one unit

TB+10 at NO

TB usually keeps this one close.  Not sure if Fitz is a downgrade from Winston, but Ingram out has to be a plus.

TB+10 at NO  one star

Wish +2 at Arz

This is a bet on Alex Smith.  Underrated as always, I'm looking for him to try and prove something here.  I know..dumb reason.  We'll to it anyhow.

Wsh+2 at Arz  one star

LAC-3 vs. KC

KC making last minute additions to def. backfield.  Rivers seasoned and very good QB vs. Mahommes, essentially a rookie and a questionable KC defense.  

LAC -3 vs. KC  two stars
This guy took a lot of undeserved crap on this board and came through like a champ.  Wonder what kind of contract this "journeyman" will get for next year?
Phi+4.5 vs. NE

   NFC is much the better conference this year and the Eagles are the better team.  The 4.5 pt. chalk is
due to the Brady/Foles match-up and I will take Foles.  The Eagles have the better defense and I think
they can pressure Brady up the middle which is the key to beating him.  That and just making fewer 
mistakes than the Pats.  Thinking this should be a pick'em.  Takin' the Eags.

Phi+4.5 vs. NE    two units
Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:

"White privilege" is a joke. You can find it in the dictionary between Santa Claus and the Yeti.

Read "It's Okay to Be White" my Mike Stone, available on Amazon.

Mein Kampf is better
Reg Season:  32-27 +6.0 units
Playoffs:  3-2-1   +1.9 units
When you just can't make up your mind on a side or the O/U it is probably because the game is properly handicapped and shouldn't be bet.  I think that is the situation today.  If you just can't stand the idea of not having a wager on the games, just bet the over and root for TDs and pick sixes and returns.  Could happen.  I'll take the over in both games..but not for much.

Min/Phi  over 38.5 one unit

NE/Jax over  45.5  one unit

I'm sure a lot of bettors had the Bills that day, but you are the first one besides myself that I have seen.   I also had Bills/over parlay and though I was kind of rooting for the NE TD which would do the over and still give me the Bills and the Bills/over parlay, assuming a normal extra point,  a little voice was telling me that this was not a good scenario.  Sure enough.
If all football fans had your marvelous perspective, this site and the sports scene in general would be a better place.  Mistakes at crucial moments are exaggerated to a ridiculous degree.  Games do not hinge on one call or on one play.  They are, as you say, won or lost as a team.
What we all need to remember is that while all it took to stop that last TD was a totally average defensive play, that is not how the young man who made the mistake got to the NFL..average players don't make it.  He made it by being an all world athlete and making spectacular plays which is what he was trying to do in this instance.  Well, he has many years to redeem himself and I would bet that he does.

Pbg/ Jax over 41

Jax second half of the season away games avg. 47ppg, Pbg second
half games at home avg 59ppg.  Weather will be chilly, but sunshine and very little wind.  Shouldn't be a factor.  Hard for me to see this total staying under, but I was wrong once before.

Jay/Pbg over 41 one unit

Min-5 vs. NO

Vikes have failed to cover only once at home the entire year and all but that 7-14 (0-3 turnover margin) loss to Detroit were by 8 pts. or more.  NO has covered only once the second half on the road, that a week 10 47-10 win at Buf where they gained almost 300 yds. on the ground with over 41 minutes TOP.  I don't think they pull that off today.  True, Brees could go in there and light the place up, but I'll take that Minny defense today.

Min-5 vs. NO  one unit
Are you sure you don't despise the posters?  Pretty hard to despise a post.  Doesn't matter.  We all realize we are inferior to Bartenders, esp. those from NY.
I'm with you, but, and this is just for your info., there is NO definite in the NFL.
Phi+3 vs. Atl

Doubled up on the Falcons LW and they could well handle the Eagles today, but I think Philly comes out smoking' and will take an early lead.  Folks was injured in preseason, according to ESPN, and didn't take a snap.  He has had a month now to practice with the A squad and should be ready to go.  All that stuff about sub QBs in the playoffs is true, but I think Foles is a different story by far.  Eagles can run the ball and play defense better than the Falcons.  (Or at least they could for most of the season.) And I will take that combo and the 3 pts. at home.

Phi+3 vs. Atl   one unit

Ten+13.5 at NE

I think a lot of people are over looking what Ten did LW at KC.  What they did is almost impossible.  True, the Chiefs more or less just quit with a lot of age showing on defense, but the Titans shut down a pretty potent offense totally in the 2nd half.  Don't know what TOP was, but it was staggering in the second half of the game.  Not that that means they can handle Brady and the Pats in a playoff game.  The record would obviously refute that.  But I remember a game vs. the Jets a few years back and this situation reminds me of that.  I believe the QB for the Jets then was one Mark Sanchez.  Now I will put Mariotta up against him anyway.  Looking for a pass rush from the Titans and forcing Brady into some mistakes, or more likely, some sacks.  Besides, who wants to sit in front of the TV and root for the Patriots knowing full well that Brady is golf buddies with Trump and that Belichek is Trump's long lost buddy as well?

Ten+13.5 at NE   one star

Quote Originally Posted by garyinnj:

Also... Foles walked off the field in that playoff game vs NO with a go ahead drive. Sproles kickoff return with a 15 yrd horse-collar penalty is why they lost that game.

Yeah, I was on Philly, for once.

While it is true that second or third string QBs have been dismal in playoff games, 
how many of these "losers" had an all pro season under their belts?  How many had won a starting job and held it?  How many had an extensive history with their playoff teams?  
Foles had an incredible 2013 season, leading the Eagles to a 10-6 record and playing well in their playoff loss to NO.  He had them 6-2 the following year before going down with an injury.  True, he had a disastrous experience with the Rams, but he took over for Alex Smith for a couple games last year with the Chiefs and performed well in two wins.  
Not saying this guy is not a downgrade from Wentz, who was spectacular, but he aint "chopped liver" as they say, either.
Buf/Jax over 39

Pretty sure the Jags come up with a win here, but just can't stand to spot anybody 8.5 in a playoff game.  Neither team has been in the post season lately and I'm sure many mistakes will be there for the scoring.

But/Jax over 39  one unit

NO-6.5/under 48

Really should stay out of this one all together.  Oh well, it's only money.

NO-6.5/under 48 parlay 1/2 unit

Ten + 8.5 at KC  

Ten. doesn't look much like a playoff team, but 8.5 is too many.  

Ten+8.5 at KC

Atl+8.5 at Rams

Haven't heard much about the advantage Ryan has in terms of experience.  He is also much better one the road and on grass
than at home in the dome.  
Rams won it all with a first year QB in 99-2000, but Kurt Warner was a seasoned veteran his first year.  Looking for Matty Ice to at least keep thing close.

 I think 8.5 is way too many
All + 8.5  two units

Divisional rival games and some cold.

Jets+15 at NE / under 43.5 parlay one unit  (Pays 13-5)
Gotta believe the Jets can get it up for this one.  Pats need
it, but not by 2 plus TDs.  Weather should keep the scoring down some, but Brady is a bad weather QB.

Chi+12.5  at Min
Pretty much same reasoning.  12.5 will cover most of these games.

Oak+8 at LAC


All for one unit

College Football / Toledo / View Post
Sound reasoning on your part.  I don't do bowl games anymore, but I can remember oh so many times I got beat this very same way.  Preparation and motivation for these things are just unknowns that we cannot cap.
  So many playoff possibilities.  So many "must win" games.  Well, it has been my experience that teams are about as likely to go out there and lay down as they are to win the "must" game.  The other team, even if they are the Browns, have an all-world athlete at every  position and they are, by nature, extremely competitive.  
    I don't remember ever doing this before, but none of the dogs are absolutely repellent and some look downright attractive so,  here goes.  I'm taking all the doggies this week.  Blanket pick hoping to come out plus two or three.  Could lose my ass, but what the hell?
All for one unit:

Ind+13 at Bal
GB+9 vs. Min
Cin+5.5 vs. Det
Jts+7 vs. LAC
Ten+7 vs. Rams
Cle+6.5 at Chi
TB+10.5 at Car
Atl+6 at NO
Den+3.5 at Wsh
Mia+10 at KC
Buf+11.5 at NE
SF+5 vs. Jax
NYG +3.5 at Arz
Sea+5 at Dal
Hst+9 vs. Pbg
Oak+9.5 at Phi