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cropduster
cropduster

I think Jimmy Nelson will allow 3 runs in 5 innings. The difference in today's game is that instead of Albers and Claudio who gave up runs in relief yesterday, Counsel will have Peralta , Houser, Jeffress, and Hadr all at his disposal. I think the bullpen will fare better today.

 

 

BREWERS -110

Risk $125 to win $113

Season Total:+ $125

cropduster
cropduster

Drew Pomeranz beat Clayton Kershaw in his last outing. I think Pomeranz feeling a  postive momentum push plus the fact he'll have a better advantage over lefties Moustakis and Yelich pitching in San Fransisco will benefit him.  Zach Davies has had a good season but has shown some kinks in his armor during his last outing.  With Buster Posey now back in the lineup along with Brandon Belt, the Giants won't be a  pushover.  

 

 

GIANTS +125

Risk $100 to win $125

Season Total: $0

cropduster
cropduster

Gamel is hitting .400 against Verlander and Cain is hitting over .300 against Verlander. Ryan Braun was rested yesterday as well. Nobody on Houston has faced Woodruff yet and Woodruff has pitched well in his last outing. No one of significance was used in the Brewer bullpen yesterday, so the bullpen remains fresh and available for longer stints with the day off tomorrow. 

 

 

BREWERS +118

Risk $170 to win $200

Season Total: -$200

cropduster
cropduster

Freddy Peralta pitched well in his last outing. In fact that outing Peralta  was the stopper. Miami won two straight against the Brewers and the rookie had to perform well to avoid the sweep. I don't see the pressure being any higher for Peralta here in Houston.  Houston is  a better team overall than Miami, but I just don't see Peralta slipping back on this very next performance.  Peacock on the other hand will be facing an offensive lineup as good as the Twins.  Check and see how he did against the Twins and then make your Brewer bet.  

 

BREWERS +105

Risk $100 to win $105

Season Total: -$100

cropduster
cropduster

Chase Anderson gives up homeruns in Milwaukee. Chase is pitching in Milwaukee today. 

 

 

PIRATES  +170

Risk $100 to win $170

Season Total: +$0

cropduster
cropduster

I learned from yesterday's loss that Woodruff does his homework. Woodruff studied what he did wrong in Pittsburgh and actually adjusted his approach where he would not just come right over the middle of the plate after a strike. I'm not sure about the details of the particulars but generally speaking Woodruff was able to change what he did when he got an unfavorable performance to something different that worked.  The reason I  bring that up is because I think the opposite might be in play today for Zach Davies. Zach Davies pitched 8 innings winning 4-2 last Sunday. The adjustments that will be made will be by Pittsburgh since they lost that game. I don't see Zach Davies doing the intense homework on the film watching that Woodruff did.  I think Davies will come into today using the same approach he used in the last game which won't work.  The Pirates have Moran, Marte, Frazier, Diaz , Cabrera, Palonco, and Reynolds all hitting over .300 against Davies.  Something is  going to give here, and it looks like it will be Davies' good fortunes. Then on the other side you have Jordan Lyles. I think Jordan Lyles is an upgrade over Rookie Davis who pitched yesterday for Pittsburgh. I know the Brewers have a winning record against Jordan Lyles, but Yelich is only hitting .125 against Lyles.  Yes, Braun and Thames have hit Lyles but it isn't the swarm of hitters that Pittsburgh has hitting against Davies. I just think this has bounce back written all over it. 

 

PIRATES  +150

Risk $800 to win $1200

Season Total: +$800

cropduster
cropduster

Quote Originally Posted by loserforeverz:

So is Pittsburgh +3 -191 worth a $200 bet? mr cropdumpster....

It definitely increases your chance to win outright versus losing your bet. But, if this bet goes bad, meaning Pittsburgh loses, then , who knows by what margin.   

cropduster
cropduster

Quote Originally Posted by Showtime313:

No SIR Mil bats will be the difference not pitching match ups??

By "Milwaukee bats" , you must be including Travis Shaw. Shaw started out with 2 hits in his first game back, but then went 0 for 4 in game 2. His season average is .169.  Shaw also committed an error on his first game back that allowed 2 runs to score against the Brewers.  I'm not saying Rookie Davis is Cy Young, I'm just saying the Pirate bats have a known path to success that is easy to repeat. The Brewers , can hit Rookie Davis, but I don't think they have him figured out right out of the gates like the Pirates have Woodruff figured out. 

cropduster
cropduster

Nick Kingham was slated to pitch for the Pirates but was replaced by Rookie Davis. Rookie Davis should be a better option than Kingham. There will be a need for the Pirates bullpen, but the crux of the outcome of this game is that the Pirates have the blueprint for nailing Woodruff.  It seems that way to me at least. Woodruff wasn't injured or didn't have some flu bug or something else in his last outing which was against the Pirates.  Woodruff allowed 6 runs on 10 hits in 4 innings of work. I think facing the same team so quickly doesn't really allow for adjustments for Woodruff. Look at the Dodger game on April 10th in LA , then the Dodgers on April 21st and you'll see Woodruff allowed 4 runs , then 5 runs to that same team. I think we have something similar going on here. The Pirates should've won that last game against Woodruff, but didn't. Why? Because Keston Huira got a game tying homerun late in the game to put the game into extra innings. So, why can't that happen again?  It can't happen again because Keston Huira, was sent down to the minors for Travis Shaw.  That's right, the Brewers messed with the good chemistry the team had and brought back a guy that has been hitting under .200 for the season.  Another point to consider for the Pirates winning is that they hit Guerra, Jeffress, and Hadr last time out.   Not to mention Jeffress and Hadr were used yesterday just to lock down a  victory against Miami. 

PIRATES  +200

Risk $389 to win $778

Season Total: +$1189

cropduster
cropduster

Ryan Braun was rested yesterday and has been hitting well lately. Braun being a righty, hitting in the 3 hole today , should spell trouble for Caleb Smith the lefty.  Also, I expect the right handed imbalance of Hernan Perez, Jesus Aguillar, and Manny Pina to do much better than when Travis Shaw and Eric Thames were in the lineup. I have to say though that Pina in for Grandall is somewhat of a negative tradeoff.  Freddy Peralta needs to get through the order the 1st time around in order to compete, since his record shows he really has a rough time 1st time through the order. I think he'll be fine. Obviously Counsell does too.

 

 

 

 

BREWERS -181

Risk $766 to win $423

Season Total: +$766

ThrowDemDarts
ThrowDemDarts

If I had to pick one to lose, I'd pick Boston, with Sale and his 1-7 record.  

cropduster
cropduster

Jimmy Nelson is back. 2 years of preparing for this day should yield pretty good results. I'm sure there are differences in how the Brewers play defense and he hasn't had Grandall catch for him yet. But, Jimmy Nelson was the ace of the staff 2 years ago, and I think we pretty much think he'll be able to adjust to any changes made in the past two years. I'd love to see Nelson pitch an 8 or 9 inning game where he collects the win. There is no limitions on the  pitch count on Jimmy Nelson, is what I heard.  So, can  Sandy Alcantara keep a team with alot of left handed power contained?   Not sure about that because the Brewer team not only wants revenge for yesterday's utter humilation, but would like to see Jimmy Nelson win in his return debut. Yelich, Moustakis, Shaw are three good candidates to knock one out of the park on Alcantara.

 

 

BREWERS -250

Risk $750 to win $300

Season Total: +$1516

cropduster
cropduster
Quote Originally Posted by LoveCFB1_:

You are from Wisconsin and routing for Miami?????

I want to win my bet. Nothing else matters.
cropduster
cropduster
Ding, ding, ding... Cooper just nailed one off Chase. And now Brian Anderson just cranked one.
cropduster
cropduster
Quote Originally Posted by Macwestie1:

GL clovercropduster peace_5....nice write up mah man an_2drinks

Pirates are on my radar tonightan_popcorn

Thanks. Looks like you've got an early 4-2 lead. I know Josh Bell was out for that one.
cropduster
cropduster
Castro just went deep in the 1st inning.
cropduster
cropduster

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Good Luck today
Thanks !

cropduster
cropduster

Chase Anderson gives up homeruns at home. Chase Anderson is at home.  Jorge Alfaro , Brian Holaday, and Curtis Granderson are three likely candidates to go yard against Chase Anderson today. I feel after Chase Anderson is done getting whalopped  today, Counsel will feel like he needs to put the 2 guys that he just brought up from the minors again; Taylor Williams & Jacob Barnes.  That's just a recipe for more damage.  I'm not sure what's going on here but messing with the team chemistry by demoting Keston Huira is a losing move. The Brewers decide to bring the .163 hitter back up to fill in for Huira who was hitting .281.  The .163 hitter tried to get back on track while in the minors but only performed at a clip of .100 while down there. Yes, it's limited at bats, but it's hardly reinforcing the idea that he'll be on fire when he enters the lineup tonight. I realize Pablo  Lopez gets hammered on the road, but his curveball is effective and there nothing more Don Mattingly and Mel Stottlemyre Jr. would like to do more than show the organization that they can beat the team they trade Yelich to.  They've been publicly criticized alot for that deal. I just don't think they want it rubbed in their faces by looking completely inept. And, Miami has been playing good baseball winning every series for the last five or six, don't forget about that!

 

 

 

MIAMI +168

Risk $566 to win $950

Season Total: +$566

cropduster
cropduster

My main reason to pick the Brewers today is just this rush to stardom, the rookie Kesten Huira is having right now.  With the huge threat of the Brewers bringing back the slump riddled Travis Shaw, Huira might be hitting at the exact time he needs to.  Huira is hitting a cool .300 right now and might have another great offensive day today.  I predict he will. This would solidify Keston Huira at 2nd base in my opinion.   

Originally, I was thinking Jordan Lyles would have a good outing since he was on the Brewers last year and knew something about them and possibly a chip on his shoulder.  But, maybe Jordan Lyles being on the team only gives the Brewer management the ability to communicate with their hitters what pitches to look for and when. Zach Davies has pitched well this year but has a bad record against Pittsburgh.  But, that doesn't mean Davies will get shelled. I  could see 3 runs being scored in 5 innings against Davies though.  Which requires the bullpen to pull this one out.  The Brewer bullpen got slaughtered yesterday and the last time Davies pitched.  I'm just hoping the bullpen will reverse the fortunes on this one. It seems like Counsell has to pick the right reliever at the right time, since none of them are that over talented.  

 

 

BREWERS -119

Risk $308 to win $258

Season Total: +$308

cropduster
cropduster

Brendan Woodruff has been unstoppable as not only a  pitcher but a hitter as well. At this clip he is hands down the MVP of the league. With Woodruff pitching, a rested Hadr in the pen, the pitching portion is ready for today's game.  Now look at Keston Huira the second baseman. His multiple hit game yesterday puts him at .296 for the season. Yelitch is at .307. Nick Kingham has been seen a  couple of times last year by the Brewers with mixed results. I don't see that he provides and particular problems  for the Brewer lineup. 

 

BREWERS -185

Risk $200 to win $108

Season Total: +$200

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