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bookieassassin
bookieassassin
College Football / WEEK 4 / View Post
added 

S Caro  -2.....one unit play
Fla  -4' .........smaller

BTW.....as my man Africa with 3 A's pointed out....smaller stuff has been pretty good....one unit plays stunk ....like a worn out Cambodian hooker with a yeast infection perhaps......so far that is........

I should have reminded guys...I don't really distinguish much between the 2 wagering wise myself......these are more 'recommendations' than my actual bets....meaning I may bet a smaller play ....or lean one unit or more....but if I can't really support it (hunch mostly).....I ain't gonna recommend it...or like so ,many here do.....guarantee it !!!!!...........

eg.   last week my biggest bet was Texas in-game ML.....
          * once I got a feel for how Horn D was handling USC O....I was pretty sure they were gonna win...but probably a dumb bet > irresponsible to recommend ....I had Temple as a one unit play (posted as lean) because I could think of zero reasons to bet that one..........later in the year....if my hunches are working out ... I will post more of them

I view the CFB wagering season as a round of golf..........
  $  getting pissed off / or wildly celebrating ....after each freaking hole (week)....or shot (bet)......is STUPID / CHILDISH....and cost you MONEY....if you're a solid player...it all will balance out....don't let one bad hole ......affect ANY more     
  * so many guys here will have say 2-3 bad weeks in a row.....and their YEAR is ruined....guys are ripping them / calling them an idiot! ............

SO....I don't ' keep score'....pretty much....until I'm done....my account balance tells me what I wanna know......I don't need FEEDBACK from others on my performance..........


As I've said a buncha times....but understood by few....your failures / successes don't come in a nice / easy to deal with order....

  $  THINK ABOUT IT.....what separates winners from losers in the LONG TERM....is really how they deal with failure....because most folks can't mentally handle it....they gotta have constant positive reinforcement.....
     *  a bowl season or two ago...I started like 1-13.......SO WHAT....it only matters if I stop betting right ....OR chase my money.....OR bet a whole lot less.....listening to criticism from knuckleheads doesn't help either....I changed NOTHING.....hit 26/31....including 16/18
     $$$    hell I may bang 3-4 white chicks (my own age) in a row....why get down on myself?..... knowing....a hot / young Asian chick is right around the corner.....literally ha.............
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
College Football / WEEK 4 / View Post
[Quote: Originally Posted by Bridge1] Agree w you guys, like those ML / Total parlays.. real fun...
 
Whose asleep at the wheel this week?..

SDSU, maybe flat on O, O-Line long tough game, replacement QB, Boise on deck, ... ECU playing great, should be close... ML/Under?...

 $  why hell yeah.....I usually have a pretty good read on ROCKY...faded him week 1...played him LW......I don't think he cares much about this one...check out his record in THIS spot.....a weird MAC / SB team comes in week 3-5 /  he's off a big non-conf game (he likes those).....with MTW play looming......
       *  hell S Alabama made him their personal biitch 2 yrs......

       ** subjective of course......but he hasn't covered one YET......since 2011....he did at N Illinois 2-3 yrs ago....but that was his one 'tough' game....BTW this wagering strategy is HUGE IF you know how to get inside the coaches head....TD and I are coaches son's (I coached too / I think he was smart enough to pass) so easier for us to figure out....


Troy off monster road win... LY LSU monster road win, then lose at home to S.Bama 8-19.... 30 yds rushing...worst offensive day for them other than @Boise week 1.. their only other loss that year... Maybe they remember that and will be ready this time... maybe not.... 

  $  I would pass on this one....Troy is TOUGH on the SB road...but 
ULM (can) really move the ball ....so far they look sluggish...their D is terrible but can bring pressure TY at least.....for me at a TD it would be ULM or nothing
     * UNDER a strong consideration tho.....as ULM WAS an OVER machine (13/15 or so) so totals inflated....0-3 TY tho

 
South Florida off a struggle with Illinois... now 22pt favs at home to ECU... ECU knew early last week VT was cancelled... extra time to prep after smacking UNC around... mmm maybe ML/Over?...

  $   maybe in-game > I hate those 2 teams man.....hell USF could win by 50 or lose.....Charlie wild azz dancing / looking confused??/ 


Miami "home" vs FIU?... off their big non-con toledo win, UNC on deck easy to coast to a win here vs the local kids Miami didn't want... Jealous scorn can be a great motivator.... FIU putting up a few points lately so miami hoping the rush can bail Rosier out of another crappy game....mmm ML/Over?...

$  took the 28 / less down to 24' maybe ok.....FIU is moving the ball.....confident / motivated with only APB on deck....Miami with quick turn around (UNC next TH 9/27)...laying 21 or so
   $$$  huge game for Butch D / program


Looking for a strong road dog vs favorite with better things to do?

Check out UNLV @ Ark St.....covered 8/9 on road / won 4 SU
* coming off PView / with a bye on deck...(BADLY needing a W)....Ark St off nice road W / @ Ga Southern next  ....Rebels can REALLY run....I would be surprised if they DON'T win...... 
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
College Football / WEEK 4 / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by Super_Chicken:

B.A. - much respect, I love your threads.

I was wondering why you typically have very few high-profile teams in your picks?  It's seems like it's usually the forgotten teams.

Thanks again for all you do for this board.  

Sure man that's an easy one........

Those are (theoretically) the easiest games to win consistently

The bigger the game  >  more folks bet  > forcing oddsmakers to pay more attention  >  lines are tighter / tougher to beat

Easiest to toughest.....roughly

FCS totals  
FCS sides
FBS props / quarters etc
FBS 1H / 2H totals > sides > in-game ...
FBS totals > then sides
  * least popular games and / or with reduced juice preferred .....dogs a bit easier than favorites ....simply because popular favorites often have an extra point or two added to the line   

IDEALLY....you look for games they don't want you to bet.....ones with the LOWER LIMITS

When is the last time you saw someone actually admit he did that?...........
  * NO....guys wanna IMPRESS....total strangers (DUDES too ha) online  .....hey BRO I seek out the HIGHEST limit possible !

AND....I'm gonna bet all Power 5 favorites late in the betting cycle to show who the REAL MAN IS !...........

Many here are shaking their head.....dunno BRO I do just fine > just sayin'.......
 
Talking LONG TERM of course.......

group A - bets FCS sides / totals only....mainly totals
group B - bets FBS big game favorites only

After 5 years....100% of group A will have won more money (units)
  

Good man SC....BOL this week................
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
College Football / WEEK 4 / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by lordzud:

Always appreciated.

Reading the tout newsletters over at the RX rubber room late in the week is always fun. Useless, but fun. Buzzkill does a great job following up with their actual win loss records and they sound really knowledgable but when they get their records checked, well.... you might as well ask your dog which team to bet on. 

Thanks for the moneyline parlay last week that hit BA. 

 and of course

thanks LZ BOL this week.................

yeah I love those ML parlays ha.....not as a regular bet but as a challenge.....they don't work because guys ...a) put in no work  b) take teams that "NO WAY they lose !!"  < at home usually
  * I'm testing a theory....that key is to focus on the DOG (weak / no teeth)....and stay away from big schools that teams get really fired up for ....and become complacent as well...eg Texas...a loser week 1....this week looks tough....
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
College Football / WEEK 4 / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Liberty +13.5 is calling me, thoughts?


Best of luck BA

small play maybe..........
  * BUT......why step in front of a moving train?....NT covering games by 18pts/game or so.....having FUN for 1st time in awhile >>>these are not the teams you look to fade off a big W.....as these teams tend to keep moving forward.....

BUT...huge game with LT (maybe biggest GOY) on deck...
  * Flames rested and in no mood for a beatdown I'm guessing.....tough to tell how good they really are at this point (Army / Old D).....line maybe should be closer to 10

ME?...they might get blown out....or who TF knows they might beat 'em.....Lean now Mean Green can't be taking them too seriously....... 
DoubleUp4Life
DoubleUp4Life
BOL this week man..................
BWS77
BWS77
fine / big picture analysis here as usual man BOL........... 
TD21
TD21
College Football / TD Week 4 / View Post
SO....that was YOU hammering the keys on that NC ST -3.....

"denied"..."denied"....computer froze > had to restart wtf man !....
  * why do they OFFER you the bet > then deny the damn thing..

BOL this week buddy.............
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
College Football / WEEK 4 / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by lvmike32:

hey bookie,

Wondering if you can offer some insight on what made you wait on Navy, UNLV and Coast Car?.  And what the hell happened with the Navy move - I got 12.5 and thought it would jump to 14.  I saw UNLV go from 4.5 (my number unfortunately) to 6.5 so that move didn't surprise me too much.  But if there's anything in particular you look for in terms of thinking you can get a better line later, I'd be very interested to know.  thanks again for posting pre BOL opener estimates.  Has really helped me. 


Unfortunately no real strategy (or cheating ha) involved.....on those 3... although when I can think of it...you can go to Vegas Insider and check early casino movement (3-4:00pE ? to help predict which way it's gonna go 

Navy I didn't like much really...thinking line would be closer to 10
   * then I recalled the BIG PICTURE....wait a minute..off Lehigh with a bye on deck  > Ponies with MO but off Mich < TCU < NTX?.....Frogs and Michigan are really physical teams
  
CC I really like but was stunned by line being right where it should be ......so I passed 

UNLV I didn't think too much about   ......expecting a low number + Ark St with tough run D...tough at home.......BUT check their record in THIS PARTICULAR spot.....week 3-4 / non-conf.....with SBelt play looming.....it ain't very good.....suggesting HC is looking ahead...in his preparation.....UNLV can really run....USC had few answers....and has covered 15/19 on road it seems....they (HC) really NEED a W for bowl too.....Ark St does not (really).....talking myself into larger play  ha 


This week I was (lucky) < hopefully ha.....in that I had work to do at 4:00p or so ....hit the best numbers / had to stop ... then caught much better numbers at Bookmaker / Heritage .....which seldom happens.......BOL this week .............
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
College Football / WEEK 4 / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:

What would you rank as the most reliable up to date injury info site?

Just curious

as far as reliable / up to date....I haven't found one better than Don Best

I use these 2 as well.....

https://www.sportsinsights.com/college-football/injuries/0

http://jsonline.sportsdirectinc.com/football/ncaaf-injuries.aspx?page=/data/ncaaf/injury/injuries.html

 They help solve the issue ...of if a guy matters or not ya know
   * otherwise you gotta look them up in Steele.....or later in the year that spring depth chart is way outta date anyway...so you gotta google the name / go to the teams web site > game notes.....

That Sports Insights has a key player / starter option......  
iamhuge
iamhuge
Guys that REALLY know what they're doing......the analysis is 'built in'....to the number anyway...that process makes you so tired by betting time.....last thing you wanna do is a write-up
  * plus these same guys (often) bet the earliest number ...which is LONG gone by the time most guys are ready to bet....> write-up on a stale number ??

BUT.....ONE simple sentence on each pick wouldn't kill anybody
  * and if you can't say why you like a bet / you shouldn't bet it.....a hunch? > say it's a hunch

PROBLEM?...I would guess most guys cards are all hunches...... uh-oh I love this topic.....
  * is that COVERS is (not really)......a wagering forum.....it's a SUPPORT GROUP..........think about it   > examine the threads / posts

   " guys here's my bets....do you like 'em?".........then 98% of the time it's simple praise or criticism....."you da' man" ! ....OR ....you're an IDIOT!"

An actual serious wagering forum?......

MAJORITY of the members would actually put in some work....
   $$ a handful of guys doing the work?.....everybody else praising / ripping them each week ?..............
  * here guys are more concerned with their week to week record....than anything else > really silly.....a goat (coin flip) can get red hot for 3-4 weeks+

"I like these teams at THIS NUMBER".......and  WHY....AND WHEN can you expect to get it
  >  THEN if we're here to LEARN / MAKE MORE MONEY > improve.....we would be open to advice too...

"Man I don't know.....bad spot for team A because.......then an open debate for BOTH SIDES.........idea would be to learn > not win the argument.............

LonghornHoosier
LonghornHoosier
https://adblockplus.org/

don't even know what you're talking about....c'mon boys I'm like 90 yrs old................
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
College Football / WEEK 4 / View Post
ONE UNIT


TREE  +1'
NC St  -4
Wazzu  +5
FIU  +28
Cinn  -6'
Rice  +14'
E Mich  +10
Navy  -6'
UNLV +9'


smaller

Ball St  -1'
BColl  -6'
Irish  -6'
TTech  +14
C Caro +3
TX St  +11
N Illinois  +12
Tulsa  +8'


leans

Pitt
Virg at 3
Ga St  ?
Miss St
ULM
Iowa St
Fla
Michigan

note:  short road dogs...I'm gonna play small > then small ML play too

all lines BetOnline / 5Dimes / Heritage

back later boys BOL..........


bookieassassin
bookieassassin
College Football / WEEK 4 / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by WahooS:



Do a little dance, make a little love, get down tonight 

You’re my idol Bookie if it’s possible for me to have one

good to see relaxed....havin' some FUN man................
  * gonna try that myowndamself one a these days......
   
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
College Football / WEEK 4 / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by Skipster:

which teams will be too hungover to show up next week? Akron? LSU? Kansas?

there he is...........

Akron?.....ha ....how in TF did that happen wow
  $  gotta look at other side too man.....ISU in OU / Frog sammich....now 0-2 > so NEEDS A WIN bad.....a (good) bowl is season goal recall....he's BUILDING a program (and looking for better job  ha).....I really doubt Zips wanna put up a big fight here 

LSU? .....crazy azz Cajun LOST to Troy recall....he can't risk this one..........KEY?....La Tech has N Texas on deck > huge game
  $  it would be stupid as hell for LT to put up a huge fight here....risk getting key players hurt

Kansas?.....I would be looking to FADE KU hard TW.....as Baylor will be UNDERvalued.....Duke is better than most think...terrible spot for Baylor LW....Duke a much better team 
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
College Football / WEEK 4 / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:

Thank you, great work as always. 

Looking for Mich below 17... D should handle that uncoordinated Husker O pretty well. 

Louisville... banged up mess... 

Good luck!

fine eye...that's a good one

RECKON...we only can include that Big / Crazy Jim is focused on Big 10 play....(not wow SMU has really improved !)....
  * doubt they worked on SMU much .....seriously

SO....stepping back and looking at BIG PICTURE then.....
  >> making an ASSumption that Michigan has not regressed

I'm gonna say that this one 'should be'...< based on how weak Nebraska looks....17-18 or so

Based on Michigan's (apparent) struggle with SMU....we might see an early 14?...should be lower than 17 I reckon...could climb to 21 late maybe ........??.................
   
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
College Football / WEEK 4 / View Post
link for schedules....in rotation order
  * don't see how you guys do without this?.....I HAVE to have one each week

https://ncsports.com/schedule-logs/
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
College Football / WEEK 4 / View Post
kind words MUCH appreciated boys.............

BUT.....how bout actually USING this thread the way it's intended....before I freakin' DIE..........?
  * AFTER OK too I reckon.....BEFORE would be better.........

Bridge....forgot about you man.....seems to have the idea...THORPE ?.....never as usual ha  < where you been Thorpe?


1)  PRINT ....you want clutter free version go to Northcoast Sports > schedules

2)  Wanna know 3 things ....at least
     a.   what the line 'should be'
     b.   what the opener might be 
     c.   MOST importantly.....which way will it move...AND WHEN
           (in betting cycle) will this occur?

THEN........what number are you looking for?.....when / WHERE can you get it........HOW MUCH WILL YOU BET?
  * last one is HUGE as well.....WRITING IT DOWN....saves you from making stewpid impulsive decisions....in the BetOnline wagering frenzy I make dumb ones all the time...> the low limits actually help me sometimes ha

eg.

379   TCU  -3
380   TEXAS 

My process....
1)  Check series history....Frogs freaking OWN the Horns lately.....COVERING the spread by an average of 24 points last 4-5 years ....< that's what that +24 AFS means BTW...'away' from the spread.....also called  +/- ATS


2)  check BIG PICTURE...step back look at schedule....before / after ....season goals?....meaning of EACH GAME is different boys......gotta figure this out....adjust each week
  * think Nebraska really gave a rat's azz about TROY?....with Michigan on deck > NO
did they care?.....sure
were They FIRED UP ?.....sure
      NOTE:  was this reflected in the pointspread?.........NO IT WASN'T........>  see how important this is?.....and what an EDGE understanding this stuff can provide?


BUT.....were they FOCUSED all week for their practices/ meetings   $   when their coaches were warning them to watch out for these guys?...........HELLL NO.....because nobody for Troy could play for Nebraska (in their minds) 
   NOTE:  THIS....as any coach will tell you....is MOST important for predicting how a team will play.......HOW DID WE PRACTICE / PREPARE?




Frogs / Horns.....a great eggzample of how we should really bet / prepare for a match-up 

How will most RECREATIONAL bettors / knuckleheads react to both teams games?.....wow Texas is pretty good....TCU man they lost by 12 points....at home kinda >> gimme Texas at home man as a small favorite.....load up!.....Texas will be FIRED UP ......REVENGE TIME !!..................

Me?.....my earlier opinion was CEMENTED even  more so

Frogs are about a TD+ better
  >  VERY impressed with TCU.....Horns stink


3)   How does each MATCH-UP vs the other.....
      * what is their IDENTITY?....if one exists
           $$  can their opponent take this away?.....
              >> then all the other stuff...crowd / injuries / situational stuff etc......


SO....
   * line 'should be' about 3  (6-7....minus 3 for HF)
   * opener?....Texas probably opens as a small favorite
   * from there...it SHOULD only go down

Meaning....you like TCU?...you probably.... should bet EARLY.....like Texas?....maybe wait
  * BUT....Frogs open as a 2-3 pt favorite (maybe)....it ain't going up over 3.....except briefly....Horn fans see 3-3' you better hit it right then / Frogs see +3 you better hit that quick      

NOTE:    by giving you Frogs -3....I have not only told you where it should be...but which way it will go as well
  * usually I'm right ....except on blow-outs 

BOL this week boys................


BTW.......this game I will probably stay away.....Frogs are maybe too worn out / beat up ?
Jerseyboy89
Jerseyboy89
dunno boys........could be wrong...but seems like LESTER MILES was.....very White.......
bookieassassin
bookieassassin
College Football / WEEK 3 / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by africaaa:

good luck on all the plays BApeace_5


you too buddy thanks.........
  * maybe too many dogs for week 3.....we'll see