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andarmac99

andarmac99
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andarmac99 replied to The Series Price is Stupid
in NBA Betting
Was content to let the series bets ride tonight. But while Kevin Durant is an incredible player and is probably worth 4 points when he's healthy, he is certainly not worth the move from -3 to +1 when he's nursing a serious injury and hasn't been able to workout for 5 weeks.

The better team at home as a dog here is an absolute joke. This series has been horribly mispriced from the start and I fully expect the Raptors to bring it home tonight.

Raptors +102
22
andarmac99 replied to The Series Price is Stupid
in NBA Betting
Raptors playing with house money tonight. I think in a vacuum the +5 is too high, but it is a very strong spot for GS so I'll lay off the side.

I did take the Under. Expecting GS to put forth a very strong effort on the defensive end after getting smacked there last game. Raptors also due for some regression in the shooting department. On the other side, even with Klay, I can't see the Warriors going off on offense against a great defense like this because they don't have enough guys who can create. Curry really gave a lot last game too and was totally gassed at the end. I think the Raps keying on him tonight plus some energy depletion means he comes back to earth.

All three games thus far have closed 212 or 212.5 and gone over. Now at 215 I think we've got the value and the spot for a slower, defensive-focused game.

I went Under 215 -107


22
andarmac99 replied to The Series Price is Stupid
in NBA Betting

Took Raptors ML tonight. They are flat better than Golden State without Durant.

22
andarmac99 replied to The Series Price is Stupid
in NBA Betting

Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:

Simple. Then bet the Raptors.

I did. Series outright, +1.5 games, -1.5 games, and spread in Game 1.

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andarmac99 created a topic The Series Price is Stupid
in NBA Betting

There is no legit reason whatsoever that GS should be favored like this for the series. 

These teams were very similar in the regular season and so far in the playoffs GS is only +0.4 per 100 better and that's playing a much easier schedule and having a Top 10 player EVER playing 11 of 16 games. 

Everyone has soiled their pants over the Warriors beating the Blazers without Durant. That Portland team was a beat up total mess that had no hope of getting a stop. That whole series should be thrown out. The 32-1 record or whatever without Durant is also complete nonsense. Who cares? None of those teams were as good as the Raptors. 

The Raptors have a great coach and plus defenders at every position, and plus-plus defenders at multiple positions. This is something the Warriors have never had to deal with during their run in the Finals. The Cavs defense of the last 4 years was utter trash ranking 29th, 27th, 18th, and 10th in PPP. GS lost the year the Cavs were 10th in PPP. Their luck of not facing a great defense runs out here and unfortunately for GS this is by far their worst team of the 5.

The Raptors have the better homecourt, better defense, better depth and best player. The ONLY reason this line is where it is is because of perception. The perception the Warriors are better without Durant. They aren't. The perception they are clicking. By beating trash, congrats. The perception that the Warriors have the experience and the Raptors will melt. But on that last point the REALITY is that the Raptors just went to war with two Top 4, elite teams. They dug deep, found themselves and learned to win as a group. And it's not like Kawhi Leonard doesn't have a Finals MVP, Danny Green hasn't had great Finals games, Ibaka hasn't played in the Finals, Gasol and Lowry haven't played a million playoff games. Really when you peel back the layers the experience edge the Warriors have falls apart and really the HUNGER edge of these players on Toronto that haven't won, the fans in that city that haven't won, the fans in that country that haven't won and are STARVING will matter much more than some phony Warriors experience edge.

The Raptors should be favored in this series and will win. Public opinion and narrative still weighs in heavily and this is Exhibit A. In a sports betting world getting bigger by the day and where edges get smaller by the day, we may never see major sports league have a series price this absurd again.

22
andarmac99 replied to The Value in this Game
in NFL Betting
This game reminds me more and more of the Bears/Colts Super Bowl.

That year by DVOA:

Indianapolis: Offense: 1  Defense: 25
Chicago: Offense: 20  Defense: 2

This year by DVOA

New England: Offense: 1  Defense: 31
Philadelphia: Offense: 8  Defense: 5

PHI O likely around 16th or so with Foles IMO. Bears had a better run game than the current Eagles do. Bears won 39-14 at home in NFC title game that year much like Philly did in this year in the title game. But the Bears' disadvantage at QB showed up in the biggest game as Grossman garbage his pants. Kind of feel Foles does the same here.

Pats 30-17. GL all.
28
andarmac99 replied to The Value in this Game
in NFL Betting

Quote Originally Posted by cropduster:

Pats defense will give up over 100 ground yards to Jay Ajai alone. I think the Eagles will run through that nonexistent Pats defense like a hot knive through butter.

Ajayi is a major boom or bust player. When he doesn't connect on huge runs, he's just average. It was the case in Miami and is the case in Philly. Take out his two big runs with the Eagles and he's averaging 4.1 YPC. Will he get long runs on NE? Not likely. They've given up three runs of 30+ yards this year in 438 attempts...that's 0.68% of the time.

I'd bet Belichick is much more comfortable stacking the line and letting Foles beat him than vice versa.

28
andarmac99 replied to The Value in this Game
in NFL Betting

Quote Originally Posted by tsw:

The lines were obviously wrong in those Eagles games.  And Foles certainly doesn't have to outplay Brady- since 2000, of the 14 games where there was a discrepancy at QB, the team with the superior QB won 5 out of the 14 games straight up and only covered 3 out of the 14 games.

Since 2000 the team with the better rated QB in the Super Bowl is 13-4 ATS. Two of the losses were last year when the Falcons pissed away a 99% win with dumb decisions and the other was when Seattle threw the pick at the 1. This stat should really be 15-2 ATS. If Foles doesn't outplay Brady then odds are pretty high that the Pats are going to win ATS.

28
andarmac99 created a topic The Value in this Game
in NFL Betting

is on New England -4.

Philly was +3 at home to the Vikes and Falcons. Makes them +6 on a neutral vs those teams. You telling me the Pats would be dogs to the Falcons and Vikes in this game? No chance. This line is simply a product of the Pats playing bad last game and Philly covering by 5 TDs. That's it.

Classic buy low, sell high and how often do you get to do that with the Pats?

Nick Foles has had a career's worth of mediocre play and now he's a great QB after one game? No doubt he played well vs MIN but the guy was 2-15 on deep throws coming into the game and had a 23.3 rating under pressure. Last game he was 4-6 on deep throws (at least a couple when Rhodes went out of the game) and had insane 152 rating when under pressure. With two weeks off, two weeks for Belichick to prepare, I'm betting Foles regresses and regresses hard.

But for Philly he can't afford to regress. We can dissect this game all we want but at the end of the day Foles has to outplay Brady. The Pats are an absurd 29-4 since Brady came back from suspension last year. In the 4 losses the Pats gave up 31,42, 33, and 27 and the opposing QBs had these lines:

68% completions  348 yards  3 TD 0 INT  124.6 RAT

66% completions  263 yards  3 TD 0 INT  112.1 RAT

76% completions  316 yards  3 TD 1 INT  130.8 RAT

80% completions  368 yards  4 TD 0 INT  148.6 RAT

 

That's the level Foles has to play at to outduel Brady. Mediocre QB off a career game and the greatest coach of all time has two weeks to get him off his spot and make him uncomfortable...the odds Foles plays well again are not good. Sell high.

Pats also off a game where they probably should have lost had Jacksonville not crapped the bed. Down double digits, lost the turnover battle, didn't cover. This current Pats group is 7-1 ATS the last two years off an ATS loss. And how often do the Pats play two bad games? Buy low.

Lots of talk about how NE always play close Super Bowls. I think they are going to win this one by double digits.

 

GL.

28

High temps in the teens in Pittsburgh on Sunday and dropping throughout the game. You said in your first post Blake is only accustomed to sunny Florida. What happens when you put a bad QB in cold weather who has never thrown a pass below 38 degrees (and that was against an 0-16 team)? Who cares that there's no wind. When it's that cold the ball is hard and slick. He's going to be painfully inaccurate in this game. 

Bortles wasn't bad because of wind last week either. He just sucks and he mentally shit his pants. Now take him from a home game vs the 30th ranked pathetic pass rush of the Bills to a game on the road, in the teens, and vs the #1 pass rush of the Steelers (better than JAX) and you have a disaster in the making and multiple turnovers likely. Ben's a statue but he has the best pass blocking OL in the league. JAX only managed 2 sacks in 57! dropbacks in the earlier game knowing full well PIT had to throw all game. 

The Jaguars also had far and away the easiest schedule in the league this year. They are going to get their asses handed to them on Sunday.

180
371
Going with the Celtics again in Game 2. 

They were clearly dead in Game 1. Didn't expect it and thought crowd would will them to a win. 

Much different story tonight IMO.

16
Well....so much for that.
16
Quote Originally Posted by jontt95:

You didn't mention that Cleveland romped Boston by 23 pts in that last game they played each other.

Boston just got off of a long series.  Cleveland is rested.  

Yes, Boston could win this game or cover, but there is a reason why the line is -4.

BOL! 

Yes, they certainly did. But that was a game where Boston was expected to win and the Cavs were on a b2b and everyone thought they had major holes at that point. It was just a game Boston wasn't ready for and LeBron as a dog said darn you.

Exactly the opposite scenario here. You've got a feisty as hell, tough as nails Celtics team that will be ready and have nothing to lose.


Win, lose or draw, the C's +535 in this series is nuts. The only whitewashing we'll see involving the Cavs is what will happen in the Finals if they survive this series.
16
And they were +4 in that game. And are now -4. Not sure I've ever seen a line swing that much in 12 games.

Here's what happened in those 12 Cavs games:

4 straight losses to end the regular season; two of which were very meaningful games against the Hawks that the Cavs lost in embarrassing fashion.

4-game sweep of a 42-40 Pacers team where Cleveland looked like total crap. Their winning margin was the lowest ever by a team that won a series 4-0.

4-game sweep of a Toronto team who has a long history of coming up small in the playoffs and who lost their best player in Game 2. Throw that out.

Has Cleveland improved 8 points in the 12 game sample size above?

I'd argue they haven't improved a single point. They've just faced trash in the playoffs. I don't believe "the switch has been flipped". You don't play no defense for the whole year and just flip a switch in the playoffs.

This line is pure perception.

A 30-11 home team, with the far better coach and defense catching 4.5 at home is a autobet for me. Throw in the fact the crowd wants the Cavs bad and the recent Celtics wave (Game 7, lottery win) and I think that building will provide any energy the C's would be lacking under normal circumstances coming off a Game 7 with a days rest.

Boston +4.5 and ML

16
andarmac99 replied to Change is Good
in NFL Betting
Quote Originally Posted by ActionMagnet:

You're luckier than luck can ever be.. thank Quinn and Shanny. 

No doubt all the breaks went the Pats way in the 2H. They all went against them in the 1H though. 

I do think experience played a big role in the 2H. Pats just executed perfectly while ATL choked and unravelled when things got tight. Coaching staff really fell apart on those last two drives. You just have to run the ball 3 times with Freeman and try the FG. 

Pats were the better team at the end of the game though. 

Type of loss that bleeds into next year for ATL. Plus losing Shanahan makes them a 7-9 type team. 


47
andarmac99 replied to Change is Good
in NFL Betting
Quote Originally Posted by theIntrospect:

This was my last bet ever. Ureal. Wish I never opened this damn thread. Peace covers. Good luck to u all.

How about now?

Clown.

Falcons no depth on DL and they died in the 2H. You saw what happened. Brady chewed them to pieces. Didn't see them getting as much pressure as they did in the 1H but you saw what happened: Brady was all out of it.

37-17 FD, 546-344 yards, and +17.00 TOP.

Falcons defense.
47
andarmac99 replied to Change is Good
in NFL Betting
Few Props:

Brady OVER 24.5 completions
Edelman OVER 7.5 receptions
James White OVER 28.5 rush + rec yards

Laid -180 on the Brady prop.

Kind of think now that Belichick will come out passing. Dink and dunk their way down the field with a lot of tempo. Falcons no rush and can't cover so the ball will be out fast and those short completions to the backs/Edelman/random white guys will be nearly impossible to stop. 

Tempo early will wear out Falcons front. They have no depth to begin with and in the 2nd half I think that's when they pound Blount and backs into a tired line. That's much more effective than doing it early. Pass to score...run to win.
47
andarmac99 replied to Change is Good
in NFL Betting
Quote Originally Posted by roastedpeanuts:

Here is some rebuttal that may not matter much, I do agree with most of your assessment, You didn't even point out the obvious one, Deflate Gate, Rodger Goodell and now we find out his Mom has been very sick.  Tom Brady is one player I don't want to be motivated to play against me.

1.Atlanta has had  leads, big leads in a lot of games this year, they tend to play soft defensively with these leads so the defensive stats are somewhat blow out of proportion.
 
2.Atlanta's coach will have the proper scheme to beat the Patriots Defensively, Quinn played a similar pocket passer with Seattle and absolutely annihilated Manning.  Houston did a very good job on Brady, if they had some offense, that game could of been a lot closer.  I believe Quinn knows exactly what kind of defense he has to implement to win this game unlike the vomit game coach Tomlin decided to go with.

3.  Atlanta's offense has out schemed everyone they faced for the most part this season,  wide open tds vs very good defenses, Seattle and Denver to name two.  What Pats usually do defensively is double the best wr, Juilo, who can beat double teams, and man up with Butler on the other,  Sanu is to big for Butler,  They did vs the Jets a couple of years ago and Brandon Marshall killed Butler.  Gabriel will cause a lot of havoc with his speed. 

4. Atlanta no huddle offense will be something the Pats very seldom see, Atlanta runs it just about as good as the Pats do,  puts a ton of pressure on the Defense, won't be able to switch fast enough, you might see the old fake injury on Defense by both teams in this game.  I think the Atl rbs will do a very good job running the ball, over for both of them in prop bets.

5. Motivation, Matt Ryan can finally be legitimized, he has to win one to get serious credit.  Coach Quinn was here with Seattle and I think that's the most important thing is to have a coach that understands the routine so he can get all the players on the proper schedule.

6. Patriots #1 defense feels like anything but #1, I know they are sound unit but there is absolutely no fear like with true #1 defenses, Seattle, Denver, Baltimore Ray Lewis teams.  I believe the edition of Alex Mack is the biggest piece for the Falcons.

Prediction on score Atlanta 31 Patriots 24.



 


Great post. Few counter points:

1. ATL was up in a lot of games but so are most good teams. Falcons gave up over 28 PPG to Top 12 scoring offenses and unfathomably those teams scored 23 TD in 30 red zone trips. They were very legitimately torn up by good offenses.

2. Quinn manning that SEA D is prime example of why ATL is in trouble here. SEA had much better players in that Super Bowl than ATL does here, but Lane got hurt at CB, and Avril at DE. The pass rush tired and couldn't get pressure late and Brady absolutely carved up what was an awesome defense for 13/15 124 yards and 2 TD in the 4th. No pressure and he's going to destroy anyone. Falcons aren't nearly as good as Seattle and what happens when they get tired in the 4th quarter? They have no depth to begin with on the DL.

3/4 Good points. ATL has been superb in scheming this year and the Pats staff will have to adjust quickly.  

6. No doubt Pats aren't #1 D. But people forget that compared to ATL they are. Need to keep an eye on Alex Mack. Didn't practice last week with rumored high ankle sprain. If he's hampered Falcons are in trouble in the middle as their RG is one of the worst in football. Pats actually really stout in the middle. Think ATL better served with the dumpoffs to the edges to the RB. Might go over receiving props.

Bottom line is I think evidence is clearly there to support the notion the Pats will break into the 30s with little resistance. Pats D and Belichick will find a couple stops and I feel Matty Ice gives one up.

47
andarmac99 replied to Topic Title
in Covers Help
Should also say But can Atlanta outscore the Pats? in bold before the paragraph that start with the sentence "Well they do bring a Top 10 all-time offense into the game".

Apologies. Pasting issues.

3

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