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THEMUGG
THEMUGG
I share wallstreetcappers sentiment but whats the best way to fade this market? The short ETFs are not for long term plays and I am not trying to time a drop, just feel there is more a slow decline coming. Is Gold the way to go?
PatrickBateman
PatrickBateman
Also anywhere that would be fun to watch it?
PatrickBateman
PatrickBateman
Just got to Vegas. Having trouble finding a book that offers the games total. Anyone have any idea where I can find that offered? I'm going over 40.5 (I found the line online but can't bet it.) Think we see a pretty even match to the end 




andrew730
andrew730
Haven't seen one but -5 or less and I would take Stony Brook. Thats coming from a UVM fan. I attended the UNH and UVM game this past Monday. VT is really bad at rebounding and rely heavily on the 3 ball. If they are not falling this game can get ugly. 

In my opinion this UVM team just looks too young to win this game on the road. Next few years they will be the best in the America East but this year they are still just too young. Stony Brook a good solid team. Its their time this year, UVMs time next year.

What are your thoughts?
USC_Holmey
USC_Holmey
My Pick for Friday is TEXAS -4.

Seems like we missed the best of the line at -2.5 but I don't think I mind. And yes if you adjust the spread from their previous meeting to take into consideration court change it should be lower at -2. 

However here is the deal...

1) This Oklahoma St team is just done done done. They just look tired last few games and they are just thin in the ranks. Texas coming off a bad loss but still ranked Top 25 and a loss here definitely hurts their Tourney ranking. OK State is down in all the major categories I look at last 3 games. EFG%, TPP, ORB%, and FT Shooting %. They are either LAST or in the 300s last 3 games they have played. So this tells me my sense that this team has given up is even more correct than what my eyes are already telling me.

2) Last game these teams played 3 players accounted for 37 of the 69 points OK State scored. 

Evans - OUT - 34 minutes - 12 points

Jeffry Carroll - Questionable - 24 minutes - 7 points

Leyton Hammonds - Questionable - 37 minutes!!!! - 18 points

So an already thin team may be losing all that? Only a half point adjustment from -2 (adjusted previous game) to -2.5 opener for this matchup? No real surprise this jumped to -4 in a blink of an eye. Depending on the line I may also be looking to play OK St Team Total Under if it is anywhere near 65-69. If these guys are missing, scoring under 60 is not that hard to imagine.

3) SHAKA SMART - This pretty much doesn't need too much clarity. He gets his team ready to play and game plans well. If you are going to take road favorites to cover you bet on good coaches!!!!!!! Thats all that needs to be said.

It scares me slightly that Texas is not a great FT shooting team and that can hurt you down the stretch covering on the road. Also Texas 4-5 on the road SU isn't really spectacular. However, they are 6-3 on the road ATS and quite frankly you have a team with plenty of life off a pretty bad kick in the teeth last week. Good free throw shooting or not they just grind this OK St down to nothing and cover -4. 

This is also a play even just from a market standpoint. If this doesn't go to -5 or -6 by game time I would be really surprised. So -4 has value even though I wish I could have gotten -2.5.

$$$$ 2k Texas -4  









USC_Holmey
USC_Holmey
Gambleholic63,

Really glad my info helped and we both cashed that ticket with minimal stress in that game. 

I just have to say that I have been reading this post everyday and that (TEMPLE) was my first submission. Unfortunately I hate to admit that I really had such a great feel for that game because Memphis has hurt me so many times the past few weeks.

 USC has started something amazing because this thread cuts out all the BS that people post on this site. I.E. - Just starting a thread and saying "USC -6" and then nothing else. Why does anyone care if you are not providing any info?

Those posts have never made sense to me. We are here to have open discussion and help each other take down the bookie. I also really appreciate how no one bashes on anyone in here. For a long time this forum has been either bonehead meaningless posts like the ones I mentioned above or people just bashing on each other calling each other idiots or squares or whatever. 

A TOAST TO USC FOR BEGINNING A NEW TREND 
USC_Holmey
USC_Holmey
I have benefited from this thread and I would like to help contribute.

TEMPLE -4 

I follow these teams somewhat closely and see a clear dichotomy between these teams. Memphis on the road is absolute garbage. 1-7 SU and have lost to some pretty bad teams. I know because I have foolishly backed them and at times they cannot score.

Now we have a Temple team that never gives up...see Houston game. They fight till the end. Only losses in Feb are Villanova and on the road against Tulsa in a major letdown spot and Tulsa is actually a pretty solid team. So I am throwing that result out.

Temple is solidly in the hunt to win the AAC vs Memphis playing an 8-9 AAC record? They couldn't win on the road this whole season and now with nothing to play for should just be that much more unmotivated. Also last home game for Temple which gives a little more home spirit.

Just for a quick backing of my play with some stats...Temple Defensive Efficiency at home is in the Top 50. Memphis one of the top teams in Defensive Efficiency at home but on the road...drum roll please...300th in Defensive Efficiency. Surprise Surprise. This team is terrible. 

Temple is not an offensive juggernaut by any means but if you say home court is -3 for a regular game, then the obvious difference between Memphis at home vs away has to factor out much higher and -4 seems like a fit to me. Temple lost by 2 at Memphis. That's not a whole lot of points to win by at home that instills confidence in a Memphis team that plays so much worse on the road. The o/u is actually quite high at 148.5 which makes me think Temple comes out and just lays it on for a -7 to -10 victory. 

Any takes from you guys on this game? 

Thanks and BOL
Rex99
Rex99
any info on why?
PatrickBateman
PatrickBateman
Guys thanks for the positive vibes and good discussion. We got cash tonight.

I am not one to rub it in but after looking through TSW's post and seeing what type of person he is, I find it very unlikely he comes back to admit he was wrong.
PatrickBateman
PatrickBateman
TSW, so are you taking WIU +3.5?

Everyone else that is contributing info and positive discussion,

Appreciate it. Hopefully we cash this ticket. Like I said I took -2. Line is getting a little higher than I would like, but I think -3/-3.5 for a lower wager also is a decent fit. 

I understand the line reading aspect of the matchup being..."if you have a really good team only laying 2 on the road to a crap team then its a trap."

However here is the deal with that:

1) If you look at the previous point spread when IPFW was at home and factor in that they are on the road, then the actual line should be IPFW -1/2. So at -2 its already slightly inflated according to what the power rankings were at that time. So its not like the line offered is a steal by any means. However, it also isn't asking them to cover by two possessions. It puts the line makers in a tough position because they can't make the line -6 or -7. So the line falls in a just Win sort of scenario which i like.

2) The other day I took Monmouth over Rider at -3 and was the same situation, 20+ win team on the road vs a 10 win team. Seemed really easy and Monmouth was up 9 at the half. First ten minutes of second half Rider goes on a 33-9 run and couldn't miss a shot. Result: Monmouth wins by 1 with a 3 pt shot as time expires and I lose.

The reason I bring this up is because yes it looked like I fell for a bad line, but the fact is these are 18-22 year old kids. Monmouth was clearly the right side but variance and how the runs go in basketball can sometimes go against you. If there were 2 more minutes in that game Monmouth probably would have won by 6 how the momentum was swinging back. Next day similar teams go head to head with a "fishy" line and I decided to lay off after the Monmouth loss I experienced. What happens? The road team wins by 20 as a -2 and I now feel like I lost two games because of Monmouth.

The point is this...This can very well be a letdown spot. However, IPFW has been playing some of its best basketball of the year. They can probably beat this team playing 75% as well as they usually play. I'd rather not overthink it and put my money on a team that clearly should win this no problem. That doesn't guarantee a win, but having money on IPFW win or lose seems like the right side to me.

IPFW $1k  -2
PatrickBateman
PatrickBateman
Well like I said I already took it for 1K at -2. I look forward to seeing you back in here to tell me you took a 2-12 team over the last two months +3/+3.5. The team they lost to on the road by 16 at least has a winning record and is decent.

Line certainly has the feel of a letdown spot but by you fading just to make yourself seem like a pro also has all the makings of a letdown spot. However, like I said I got the line at -2 and that is not much of a margin for this team to cover. Basically just need to win. Already has moved to -2.5.

Maybe if they were -5+ this could be a letdown but I am willing to lose money on a team like IPFW playing a team like WIU when all I need is a WIN.

Now I'm guessing tomorrow before the game I won't be hearing about how you grew a pair and took WIU. Its clear from all your "contributions" to the site you just bash people and call them losers and morons. Just wish it was me booking your money tomorrow.

Please don't disappear around 11pm tomorrow when this game is just about over.
PatrickBateman
PatrickBateman
tsw,

I am not sure if you are aware of this but this is a forum for the sharing of ideas. Do you have your money on Western Illinois? Do you play for them? Is your cousin the bench coach? 

If the answer is no to all of these then why is it necessary to come into a thread and bash me? I literally wrote "Anyone have any info on this game? Anything I may not be seeing?"

You have provided some insight but chose to also personally attack me by calling me a "moron."

Thank you for the insight and thank you for also showing why 99% of the people on here are actually morons. You're most likely a long term loser. It seems that you chooses to belittle others rather than utilize thoughtful discussion to the betterment of us all...ie- what winners do.

Yes I have looked into the stats a bit deeper and compared the away/home dichotomy. Numbers aren't quite as great but I still see one team playing very well vs another playing very poorly.

In fact IPFW is 11-3 ATS on the road. WIU 2-6 ATS at home. Now I am not looking or IPFW to cover a big number, ALL THEY HAV TO DO ESSENTIALLY IS WIN THE GAME STRAIGHT UP.

I am putting 1k IPFW -2. Will you be betting the opposite side?


PatrickBateman
PatrickBateman
IPFW is 28th EFG% in country / Top in the country last 3 games

WIU is 225th EFG% in country / 300th in the country last 3 games.

IPFW is 82nd Turnovers Per Possession in the country / Top in the country last 3 games

WIU is 204th Turnovers Per Possession / 323rd in the country last 3 games

IPFW is 119th FT% in the country / Top in the country last 3 games

WIU is 136th FT% in the country / 336th in the country last 3 games.

IPFW 22-7 and 11-3 in Summit League / Leads Division

WIU 9-16 and 2-12 in Summit League / Last in Division

And the line is IPFW -2???

I do not see any major recent injuries. Normally I wouldn't even question this line but I have had a run of losses in situations just like this...Team with inverse W-L records yet somehow the under .500 team wins and covers without a problem.

Anyone have any info on this game? Anything I may not be seeing?

IPFW doesn't have the greatest defense but up against a team like WIU that has an offense in the bottom third of all teams, that doesn't seem like enough to pass on IPFW -2
The404doctor
The404doctor
Just a heads up, SD has basically had 8 days off (played one, no name team during that time) 

Denver on its 2nd road game in 3 days. Travelled late last night. SD should come back to win
Sj45
Sj45
Why?
PatrickBateman
PatrickBateman
It concerns you because they did not shoot well? Say they were 45% that only adds another 10-16. Still under and for Illinois to come to wisco and shoot 45% would be pretty good.
PatrickBateman
PatrickBateman
I am not an expert on these teams but I noticed the total for this game and last game are both set at 136.

First game between these two totaled 118. Last 3 for each team has played under the total. Defensive Efficiency is actually up for Illinois last few games and Wisconsin is pretty solid at home. 

Wisconsin also shooting poorly at FT recently. Illinois is pretty solid FT shooting team but Wisconsin doesn't put teams at the line too often... Ranking 50th in the country.

Seems like there should be an adjustment down from 136 but there hasn't been even though they played to a -18 pt margin from last time. Illinois scored 55 on their HOME COURT against this Wisco team. Do they manage to even get to 60 on the road against this team?

Anyone see if I am missing something?
MJsPicks
MJsPicks
He is going to play tonight. Just read it here.

http://www.kansas.com/sports/college/wichita-state/shockwaves/article60494616.html
PatrickBateman
PatrickBateman
Anbody know? These refs are literally calling fouls with 30 seconds left even though it is like a 40 point blowout. When do you just let them play? That's crazy
PatrickBateman
PatrickBateman
I have heard that he is playing with an elbow injury and may be limited tonight. Anyone know or heard anything about this?