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TheTaxMan85
TheTaxMan85
thanx guys but to late for me... put my play a little after 9...

seems like both are serving well... could be one of those razor thin error matches, but we will see... I still liked the price..

penguin, I dont like playing overs that are above 21.5

parlay master... I have never had success live betting tennis, so I simply dont do it... also I find it difficult to make a solid wager on the live betting...   

Hope everyone wins.
AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
0-1 -12.1u POD Day 8
4-8 -9.05u Action Plays Day 8

Down almost exactly 50u overall

Days are meshing together so I will recap it all later today if I can stand to look at the computer... but cant recover from memeorial day.. .down to about only about 40% of my allocated chip stack left and I am giving myself one more day... My true goal for me is to find a way to break even... need a good day today, without it I am pretty much not gonna be able to touch tennis till the finals... but meals taste bad and life is very irritating at the moment... Only about 20u in play today... No reaon for me to throw it all today.. I have had more positive days than negative this tourney but the bad days were really bad and I have ruined the good days with poor bets late...



5u (POD)
Rus ML +385
3u
Gasquet/Muray Over 38.5 -110
Rus +5.5 +100
2u
Monaco +2.5 Sets +330, +365u
Monaco +9.5 +105, +110u
Rus ML + Gasquet ML + Kvitova 2-0 + Stosur ML (Tues) +2330b, +2545
1u
Monaco +2475
Rus 2-0 +805


Rus is POD
- Firstly, I am desperate for a big win and Rus has the best value of any dog on the board
- I had the privilage to watch her beat Goerges in the dark on Sat...  Her match is once again last on court and she has an edge having played in the twilight already this tourney
- Looking back to last year, she should have learned alot from her loss to Kirilenko where she was not ready to be on court and downright fatigued...  My assumption is that she should be in better shape
- This is just as much a fade of Kanepi as it is a play on Rus... If you say her match against Woz you will know what I mean, She can't close... She never has been able too...



I need another miracle this season... GL ALL

This is a shot in the dark card... capping has got me no where, maybe this is the way to go... But I really like Rus in this spot I just wish I was more confident to bet more on the ML... 
AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
3u add fed -9 -135

5u
Berdych +120
Tsonga -130
3u
Stosur 3-0 -200
Fed 3-0 + bird + Jo w + Sto 2-0 +465b, +480r
AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
1-0 +12.3u POD TODAY
5-6 -1.75u Action P;ays Today

Day #7 Recap
- My luck with watching maches has been horrible... the only one I got to watch was the most uncomfertable and most frustrating and I got downright angry... I put alot of stock on what court matches are played on and despite never moving a match to an outside court all week they did with my Goerges match and everything that makes favorites fall on these outside courts happened... fisrt she looked uncomfertable to start with all the people constantly taking there seats all first set... she of course lost it but found her stride to demolish Rus in the 2nd... Then up 1-0 and a break in the third it got too dark for her to see and she couldnt get it called... at this point it was about 9pm and they had stopped numerous matches all week at this time, but not for Goerges and not on Court 7... The entire crowd was cheering when she made a mistake, everyone loves the underdog... I dont blame her for losing... Its just frustrating knowing that the court really made the difference here... If she was on Court 1 the match would have been called well before it ended... and I wouldnt have had such a big swing... Otherwise most things went has planned.. Doubles is killing me... Kvitova lost by a game.. and I am realizing my goal is out of reach unless both Fed and Kvitova win this title... 

3-4 -2.45u POD's
33-64 -27.15u Action Plays 
36-68 -29.6u Overall

Day #8


7u POD
Fed -9.5 -115*
4u
Joker -9.5 -105
Errani +155
3u
Butorac/Soares -160, -150r, -140b*
Cibulkova +1.5 Sets +100
2u
Cabal/Farah +325, +270b, +250r
Fed 3-0 + Stosur 2-0 -140r, -150b
Fed 3-0 + Berdych ML + Joker 3-0 + Stosur 2-0 + Bryan Bros + Buturac/Soares +770r, +670b
1u
Dulko/Schwank -165r, -165b
Voracova/Zakapolova +255

* PLays not in yet, just lines where I see them now

POD is Fed Again... Simply put I never find it frustrating to lose backing Fed in this type of situation... he will win the question is how much energy he wants to spend... Its a huge plus IMO that Goffin has never seen fed before... To play the Maestro on clay without any knowledge is daunting... Coumples that with all the tennis he has played it becomes more daunting... Will Goffin take a Set, I am confidently gonna say NO... But can he cover... of course, I am just betting on him not.. 


These are plays I am making but may not be able to post... I have a golf tourney in the morning and will try to post via my phone... They involve the last matches of the day.... 

3u
Berdych ML +115
Stosur 2-0 -200
Berdych ML + Stosur 2-0 +220

- Disregard these plays if I post something else... These are the last matches of the day and are scheduled for around 11am ET


added to futures:
2u 
Fed +900
Kvitova +1200

gl all



I realized packers might kill himself if I dont acknoledge him, so there it is... I figure him having a false sense of self worth is better than having none at all..


GL ALL

AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
3u
Goerges 2-0 -160
2u
Goerges ML + Stosur 2-0 (sun) + Bryan Bros (sun) + Peschke/Srebotnik (sun) +160b
AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
2u
Llagostera/Martinez-Sanchez +100b, +120r
AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
added

3u
murray + gasquet + goerges +110
2u
add to monaco/raonic over 39.5 -125
AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
0-1 -8.25u POD TODAY
2-14 -19.35u Action Plays Today

2-4 -14.75u POD's
28-58 -25.40u Action Plays 
30-62 -40.15u Overall

Day #6 Recap
- I suck and I also watched no tennis so I have no idea how Federer lost the 2nd in that fashion..
- Its all solidly looking like a pipe dream now. still money left but its all getting foolish and my friends will likely cut me off with a big losing day tomorrow... goal is even by sunday night...

6u (POD)
Lepchenko ML +205
3u
Ferrer 3-0 -120
Schwank +11.5 -105
Monaco/Raonic Over 40.5 -105
Kvitova -7.5 -105
2u
Lepchenko +4 -105
Lepchenko +3.5 + Ferrer ML + Murray ML + Gasquet ML + Tipsy ML + Paes/Peya + Hlavackova/Hradecka + King/Shedova + Stosur (Sun) +1585
1u
Bratchikova/Gallovits +535 
Lu/Soeda +700


- Pod is Lepchenko... I have been fading Schiavone all tourney and all year with some success
- Schiavone is a shell of her former champion self.. she has struggled against numerous people all season
- Its always tough to fade someone who is a true fighter on their favorite surface... Just look at Kuzy's demoplition of radwanska, but lepchenko is a great clay court player
- She extends point with great defense and isnt a true american in that sense.
- She is a converted american, she has spen t much of her career on clay
- I would argue clay suits her game is best and that it is her best surface
- Pverall I need value to pay off...

Gl ALL
AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
day not looking good so easing off on Fed play and keeping it at 7u

Added:
7u (POD)
Fed -9, -9.5 -135, +100
2u
Fed 3-0 + Joker 3-0 + Buturac/Soares +100r, +100b
add Stosur 2-0 -115
1u
add Verdasco 3-0 +195
add Fognini +2.5 Sets -135
Cilic +275


gl all

AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
2u
Kvitova to win French Open +1310
AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
Night Cap
1-0 +6.2u POD
3-2 +2.1u Action Plays

Day #5 Recap
- Goffin finishes it off, as he should have and I was releived... Shevedova dominated as predicted and I am really upset because if I was up for the week like I should be I would have hit the paly for alot more... But at the same time I would have likely bet tomic fairly large too... Looking like that big parlay is just gonna lose by one poor first set from Gasquet... but I feel like its not gonna hurt me to keep giving them a shot.. Mchale and Lepchenko are looking pretty good... Kvitova is looking much better than usual on this urface and might take her to win this thing... The clay courters are emerging on the men's side... 



Where I am know:

2-3 -6.5u POD's
25-44 -6.05u Action Plays 
27-47 -12.55u Overall


DAY #6 

4u
Radwanska 2-0 -150
2u
Berdych 3-0 -160
Fognini +2.5 Sets -145
Verdasco 3-0 +230
Stosur 2-0 +100
Fed 3-0 + Joker 3-0 + Vika 2-0 + Dulko/Suarez + Buturac/Soares + Cabal/Farah +315r*, +260b
1u
Errani +205
Errani 2-0 +465
Johansson +150
Johansson 2-0 +325
Cermak/Polasek -140, -140b
Sela/Volandri +120, +110b
Berlocq/Marrero +190, +190b*
Cibulkova/Zheng +250r, +220b
Shvedova/Marrero +130, +130b
Dulko/Schwank +380, +305b

*estimates not in yet


POD DAY #6
-FED SPREAD
-I am already in at -9 for around -145 but most available line is -9.5 and will likely be a majority of the play
-Good for Mahut he is in the third round of the french for the first time ever... But the wins can be explained... first he played Roddick who has never done anything here and then took out Klizan that had no bearing on this court as he had played all of 20 minutes on it coming into the match...  Point being the two wins are fairly insignificant
-Mahut's Career record on clay before this match 6-24, not including a myriad of challenger and qualifying losses on the surface... that is fairly hard to do... Furthering the point that this week is an abberation
-He is serving well I will give him that but I highly doubt he will get many free points on Fed who always does his homework and rarely fails to read the serve well
-The play comes down to motivation for me... Fed can obviously win easily if he wants too, but what will keep him from just going through the motions?... I think if you ask any of the big three, they would all prefer to play early in the day... So far every day has had matches suspended due to darkness... This is the last thing Fed wants and he will want to get this one in quickly and I think it will be his mentality
- I also may play Fed 3-0... sitting at around -390 right now but I want to see how the day goes... The idea is that if all works out Fed 3-0 will also be the last leg of the parlay and I will just be tacking on to an existing play
- Fed Spread play is gonna be a big 6-10u play... The idea is for everywinner that comes in through the day I will add a unit of the Fed spread bet...

GL ALL


AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
Made slight adjustment to totals as I was a little off on the accounting for the murderous Memorial day capping day #3


This is where I stand now... 

1-3 -12.7u POD's
22-42 -8.15u Action Plays 
23-45 -20.85u Overall 

These are all pending plays
6u (POD)
Shvedova ML +110, +100r, +100b
2u
Gasquet -6, -6.5  -140, -105
1u
Gasquet 3-0 +100
Shvedova 2-0 +225
Shvedova +1.5 Games -110
Shvedova + Haas + Jaziri + Goerges 2-0 + Gasquet 3-0 +3195b
Kerber/Radwanska -115

AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
1-3 -12.7u POD's
22-42 -8.15u Action Plays 
23-45 -20.85u Overall 

These are all pending plays
6u (POD)
Shvedova ML +110, +100r, +100b
2u
Gasquet -6, -6.5  -140, -105
1u
Gasquet 3-0 +100
Shvedova 2-0 +225
Shvedova +1.5 Games -110
Shvedova + Haas + Jaziri + Goerges 2-0 + Gasquet 3-0 +3195b
Kerber/Radwanska -115

AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
good thing I did not take tomic large...

ADDED:
6u (POD)
Shvedova ML +110, +100r, +100b
1u
Gasquet 3-0 +100
Shvedova 2-0 +225
Shvedova +1.5 Games -110
Shvedova + Haas + Jaziri + Goerges 2-0 + Gasquet 3-0 +3195b

gl all
AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
Correction I am on day #5
AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
Day #3 Recap
Errani dominates as predicted, no real surprises today IMO... Goffin is a bitch but I will be happy as long as he can close it out... Very anxious though... Wanted to take TOmic Large but cant knowing that there is still an outside chance that Clement can win and ruin me, its a long shot but seeing as how things are going anything is possible right now... I think Stephens was immpressive but I wouldnt look much into it as beating Mattek-Sands on clay is not that hard... 
 
AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
1-0 +3u Action Today, POD STILL PENDING (only because if Clement doesnt show up it will be a retirement and a push, it would actually be sort of a dream scenario)


ALL PENDING AND ADDED:
6u (POD Day #3)
Goffin 3-0 +160
3u
Goffin -5.5 +100
Goffin ML +790r, +640b
Almagro 3-0 -110
Tomic -110
2u
Suarez/Navarro 2-0 + Li Na 2-0 + Monaco 3-0 +220
Nadal -10.5 -135
Gasquet -6, -6.5  -140, -105
Raonic/Levine Over 30.5, 31.5, 32 -135u, -125, -110
1u
Pironkova +500r
Pironkova +6 -125
Kerber/Radwanska -115
Babos/Hseih +255b
Ramirez-Hidalgo/Ramos +550b


POD for Day #4 is SHVEDOVA ML... 
- Arviddson WTA sucess has been primarily on Indoor Hard... The exact opposite of what we will have tomorrow.. all weather signs are point to slower conditions tomorrow... While Arvidsson is a swede and likely has played alot of clay court tennis in her life Shvedova is not a push over on any surface and I think has the advantage here... I would still take Shvedova as a favorite but I am geting her as a dog and I will bite...
- This is the last match on court 7 which is the one where there is all the foot traffic all around it.. In my mind it sets up for an straight forward victory...
- THis will be a large play in the range of 5-8u... as I said last match of the day so I will have time to see how things go... Most of the plays I like are the first matches of the day... 




NEW TOTALS

1-2 -6.7u POD's
18-35 -22.1u Action Plays
19-37 -28.8u Overall



thats it... GL ALL...
AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
6u (POD)
Goffin 3-0 +160
3u
Goffin -5.5 +100
Errani -6.5 -135
Goffin + Errani 2-0 + Cilic + Berdych 3-0 + Radwanska 2-0 +790r, +640b 

I think Clement is fade bait on clay with his style of play.. the hope is that the court plays slower than it did day 2...

AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
0-1 POD -5.4u TODAY
3-27 -38.6u ACtion TODAY


1-2 -6.7u POD's
17-35 -25.1 Action Plays
18-37 -31.8u Overall

Day #3 Recap:

I never get away with betting drunk... and I was pretty lit monday afternoon... Al poorly capped matches were then doubled off because I am confident... end result almost a third of the bankroll gone... Soeda was a shocker... But would have lost anyway as berlocq showed little form as well.. Then terrible bet on aging legs were made on chela and blake...  



Day 4..


only 4 plays...  only goal is even by sunday... if all osers tomorrow its bye bye to gambling... I will only be making bets and not taking them and wait as Betfair pays me out slowly over the course of the next 10 years (FUCKING CROOKS)

AgainstDaConsen
AgainstDaConsen
Tennis / 2012 French Open / View Post
Added

3u chela +130
2u woz -7.5 +105
3u Blake +8 +100
2u Blake +2.5 sets +125

Down 33.2u today, 2-22