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Thread Author mikeyp1 Post Entries
The Hawk
The Hawk
Thanks for posting, Hawk. VET.....i AM ALSO surprised about WOW moving to 4. However, look at his performances.......has he yet to run his race? Maybe. TONS of reading between the lines this year. AlSO SURPRISED ABOUT THE HIGH RANKING OF GAME WINNER AND TODDY
vetdrm
vetdrm
good observations, VET.......for me, the key is lack of true speed. Closer? A speedster who steps up? The next Mine That Bird? I haven't early handicapped yet, but, if I could afford it, I think I would play a 30 horse box!  

mikeyp1
mikeyp1
Quote Originally Posted by The Hawk:

Tremendous write-up/info.

Won some money with an Exacta Box, and a Tri Wheel.

Didn't see Laughing fox, or I could have turned a dime into 31.44. That's literally a 10-cent superfecta, har-har.

See you at The Derby. Hard to wheel a 20-horse field, that's for surean_horse

 


Thanks Hawk. Yes. quite the handicapping challenge. I just hope that Mine That Bird or Giacomo doesn't show up!
mikeyp1
mikeyp1
Omaha Beach was excellent.......order of finish:

1) Omaha Beach
2) Improbable
3) Country House
4) Laughing Fox
mikeyp1
mikeyp1
Factoid: Baffert is 37% wins when putting blinkers on a 3-year old racing on dirt........Improbable will wear the shades today
mikeyp1
mikeyp1
BRAIN FART.................

SHOULD BE$16  exacta whl: 8/1,3,6

$8 exacta whl: 8/5,7,11

$2 tri whl: 8/1,3,5,6,7,11/1,3,5,6,7,11


DUH!



mikeyp1
mikeyp1

My Picks:

As much as I like the chances of Improbable or Omaha Beach to be the winner, I will play against, as I simply sense upset is in the air.

#8 Country House to win and place………I think this is the day he runs his race. While speed isn’t his thing, with Improbable, Omaha Beach Gray Attempt, Jersey  Agenda and, perhaps, Galilean speed-balling it, the race could set up for Country House at 12-1. In Roserio, I trust!

$16 exacta whl: 12/1,3,6

$8 exacta whl: 12/5,7,11

$2 tri whl: 12/1,3,5,6,7,11/1,3,5,6,7,11

 

 

mikeyp1
mikeyp1

#5 Laughing Fox………Call me a fool, but I think, with the right trip, some racing luck and a bit of trouble upfront, this son of prolific Union Rags actually has a shot at winning. Three-time winner of this, Asmussen can get sneaky in spots like this (i.e. IRAP in 2017 in the Blue Grass). Prior to getting thumped in the Rebel (Division II) by 12+L, with early trouble, LF won two in a row at Oak Lawn, both routed affairs. One of the few mid-pack closers here, I cannot dismiss for a major piece, if not for the win. Steve and the jock combined for 22 wins in 2018-19.

#6 Gray Attempt………Crafty Ol’ Jinx Fires’ one big hope this year, this Graydar colt has some decent speed, perhaps enough to do harm to Improbable and Omaha Beach in the early going. In his six starts, he’s wired four times hitting a 90 Beyer last out in the Gazebo with a lifetime high of 92 in the Sugar Bowl. I will tossing his SW sloppy effort. Gray Attempt is chalking up sophomore experience with this his third race of 2019. Jinx won this race in 2011 with ArchArch and has a decent shot at the target today. Stu Elliot rides……..You remember him? He rode Smarty Jones to a Derby win and throughout much of the Great One’s career. A spicy 8-1 ML with possible double-digit odds at post time.

#7 Galilean………Jockey Prat takes on this guy 2nd off Omaha Beach, with whom he was 5/1-3-1 before Smith took over. The Uncle Mo colt has done a lot with a career three wins in five starts with one second and a third. His three wins are all in graded stakes with two of them at two turns. Galilean hit his career Beyer high of 91 last out in the Rebel (Division I) when he finished third just 2-1/2L to Toddy. Sharp vet Hollendorfer removes the blinkers for the first time since the lad’s debut win. He’s live at 10-1, if that 91 was real, as he is expected to be among the leaders out of gate. Stellar work; a must-consider.

#8 Country House………..I said Laughing Fox is game for win in this one, but so is this fellow. His speed appears no to be much of a match against some of the entrants, but this could set up for his excellent closing style, as he did in his lone win at GP and when he came from deep to finish second in the Risen Star. What I like best is that Joel Rosario handles the chores for Bill Mott. At 12-1, I have to put him in the mix with win-backers needing the upfront speed to set him off in the final furlong.

#9 One Flew South……….Calvin Borel emerges from his man cave to ride for Doug O’Neill on a Giant’s Causeway colt who, on paper, has no business being here. His 50/1 ML odds reflect that thought. Not so fast! While he was 5th in the Mine That Bird at Sunland (you will recall that MTB was Calvin’s Derby winner), he improved. At that time, OFS was trained by Wesley Ward. Here is what we know: he gets blinks for the first time with the trainer 27% wins with this tactic. His dam, out of Sky Mesa, was a multiple stakes winner; and, with Calvin on top, who knows if he’ll grab the rail, hang on for dear life……and win. I don’t think so, but stranger things have happened!

#10 Jersey Agenda………..The third of the four Asmussen’s in this race, the boy has shown some skills in his two wins. However, when he got together with the big guys in the Rebel (5th, 10+ out) and SW Stakes (8th, 10 out), he didn’t show up. Not sure what Steve’s motives are, but I just don’t see this one doing anything today.

#11 Long Range Toddy………..I am sorry he drew 11th, as I would have liked to have seen the son of Take Charge Indy a little closer to the fray. However, Asmussen’s boy does have a skilled pilot in Jon Court, who won the Rebel with LRT. Early in the colt’s career, he showed that he is capable of getting out. Not sure if the plan is to draw him in, or sit back and try to close hard. I think he can do both. The Derby points leader among the field, his 95 in the Rebel was no fluke. The horse can be tactical, so let’s see if he can make a run at the top two today, while possible holding off Laughing Fox and Country House.

 

mikeyp1
mikeyp1

Arkansas Derby 2019, G-1, $1 million, 1-18 miles

 Some might say that if Improbable wins this race, they oughta rename it the “Baffert Arkansas Derby.” After all, the California trainer has won this thing twice in the last six years. However, we tend to forget that Todd Pletcher has won it three of the last six years and five times in total! Problem is, Pletch doesn’t have a horse in the race…..literally. Asmussen, who won in 2002, 2007 (Curlin) and 2016 has four of the eleven entrants in this, which is sort of like stuffing the ballot box in a Chicago election. This might turn out to be one of the best, if not the best, of all the prep races during a year where speed seems to be lacking.

 

#1 Improbable……..Finishing second to Long Range Toddy (the 11 horse today) in the Rebel (Division I), Improbable looks to improve. His first race as a three-year old, he certainly needed the Rebel after laying off since December 18. I just wonder, out loud, with the many of the Californians training at Santa Anita, how much (if any) of their regular training routine was disturbed by the track’s surface problems. Can his loss in the Rebel be attributed, in part? The boy draws the inside post in the largest field he’s ever faced, but with the move to J. Ortiz, one of the best tactical riders, along with the colt’s natural tactical speed, I have little concern. A deserved 8/5 ML and, with a win, the probable Kentucky Derby favorite.

#2 Six Shooter….…Trainer Bob Holthaus won this race with the great Lawyer Ron in 2006. While the colt is out of Trappe Shot, a solid performer and sire, he’s no Lawyer Ron. He has talent with a lofty career of 10/4-0-3, including a 3rd in the SW Stakes at Oak Lawn. It’s a short possibility that Six Shooter could snag a small slice at 30-1. David Cohen takes the mount.

#3 Omaha Beach……..Everyone seems to love this guy, and rightfully so. Trained by the legendary Richard Mandella, he’s been lit in every race (6/3-2-1), including his excellent run in the Rebel (Division II) coming back to beat Game Winner by a nose. Note: Game Winner’s 2nd place in the SA Derby resulted in a 97 Beyer. OB’s Beyer was 96 in the Rebel, a career best.  I expect him to be all over Improbable, like Jussie Smullet on a tuna fish sandwich, with a possible fight to the finish. Who better than Mike Smith, his Rebel pilot, to ride? Second fave at 2-1. Working like a monster for this.

#4 Tikvin Flew………Out of Street Sense, there should be some talent here. Asmussen trains a colt with a win in his maiden, a 3rd in the competitive Jimmy Wakefield, but a dismal 6th, almost 11 out, in the Gotham. Not much speed here and I can’t even see a nibble ITM. Tyler Baze grabs the reins.

mikeyp1
mikeyp1

Lest we forget, Saturday's Lexington Stakes can carry a few of the entrants, who are contending in points rankings, into the Kentucky Derby.

Foremost is Anothertwistafate (2-1 fave) with 30 points, which is good enough for 23rd on the list of Derby eligibles.

Keith Desormeux's Sueno (5-1), a major contender in the race, is 25th with 28 points. Keith D won the race last year with My Boy Jack. Other notables include Harvey Walbanger (7/2) and Hawaiian Noises (10-1).

The catch is that there are just 34 points available in the race with the winner gettting 20 points (38/20-8-4-2).

mikeyp1
mikeyp1
Very nice field, somewhat  competitive, for the Arkansas Derby,  led by Baffert's Improbable (8/5 ML), Omaha Beach (2/1) and Long Range Toddy (5/1)

A few for potential upset here, including Country House, at 12/1, and, if you would like to take a shot at a live longie for a piece, 20/1 Laughing Fox for Asmussen. The lad has a decent closing kick.
mikeyp1
mikeyp1
Wow....both races showed some real immaturity among a number of the three-year olds, including the finishers in the Bluegrass who lugged their way to the purse money.

 Not to be sour grapes on my pick in the Wood, Outshine, but after Johnny V got him from the 10 hole to mid-pack position, he was slammed twice and put out of contention ("driven 5 wide). it' a whole different race, if Outshine doesn't get breached.Even the winner Tacitus, got bumped at the start, but recovered nicely.




mikeyp1
mikeyp1
Quote Originally Posted by vetdrm:

Aha.... I knew you'd come through. wife will be slightly p-od bu I'm off.


Happy Wife Happy Life. Chicago, Gibson's. Drinks .....and the Brewers kicking the cubs rear-ends. A lot to like!
mikeyp1
mikeyp1

The rest of the field…..

#11 So Alive……Pletcher, Louis Saez; third in the Sam F Davis; Out of SuperSaver. Chance for a taste.

#12 Parsimony…….O’Neill, Mario G. The colt is a maiden. Same strategy as when O’Neill won with maiden Irap? I said that Irap had no chance in 2017. I won’t say that about Parsimony, but this will be a tough task for him.

#13 Moonster……Another Dale Romans with McKee on top. He’s done nothing of import.

#14 Aqaudini……Talent out of Bernadini, but a real rough go out of this post. Lanerie and Dallas Stewart combine. Maybe not today, but keep an eye on his for mid-level stakes and high Allowance races.

 

My picks

#6 Dream Maker to win and place. I think this is the day he runs his race and I plan to be there for it. Watch for Signalman.

$16 exacta straight……… 6-3

$8 exacta straight……3-6

 $6 exacta whl……..3,6/1,8,12

$2 tri whl………….3,6/1,3,6,8,12/1,3,6,8,12

 

mikeyp1
mikeyp1

#4 Market Key…….D. Wayne Lukas brings a nice colt to the party in Market Key (20-1), who finished third in the Rebel A Group. This could be one of those Dwayne’s that improves with time, like Charismatic, Oxbow and others did for him. Wayne last won this in 2000 with High Yield. Doesn’t appear to me that today is the day for this son of Into Mischief, so I will pass. However, with improvement today, maybe bigger things soon.

#5 Chess Chief…….Another Into Mischief, he is 30-1 ML, but the boy is trained by Dallas Stewart and piloted by Paco Lopez, who command respect. Working well, he broke his maiden last out. A huge task today.

#6 Dream Maker……Owned by John Oxley, trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Frenchy Geroux would be enough for many to sprint to the window. Hold your horses. Bumped and steadied in the TB Derby, he finished 8-1/4L out. Two back, he lost by 24L, then won a $50K O/C at FG by 4-1/2L. So what happens today? His two wins were from not far off the pace. Out of the 6 post, he has a chance to run his race. I cannot dismiss with Geroux up and a prosperous 12-1 on the ML. A must consider for me for a nice piece, if not for all in an upset.

#7 Admire……He has two graded stakes under his belt, including finishing 7th in the TB Derby and 5th in the Withers. Nonetheless, this is a good spot for the Cairo Prince (Pioneer of the Nile) colt. The breeding suggests he has a bright future, which must start today. Dale Romans is a local legend, and that is good. He won with Dullahan in 2012. However, he draws Robbie Albarado, a jock I would not let park my car, let alone ride my horse. In this field, a chance for some.

#8 Win Win Win……..One of the classier in the field, he’s been pretty good finishing 3rd in the TB Derby less than three out…..as the beaten fave. His dad was prolific Japanese sire Hat Trick, out of Sunday Silence, and a Smarty Jones dam, which counts for something. He’s got the speed and can stalk and pounce, but the light must go on in the final furlong. The colt’s best win was in the Pasco setting a track record and he gets I. Ortiz Jr, which is good enough for me. Let’s see if the Trombetta charge shows up. A palatable 7/2 ML.

#9 Sir Winston……..The second of Mark Casse’s entrants in this race, he’s pinballed around a five tracks during his seven race career searching for……something. A bit of a dawdler, he’s done nothing to get my toes to tappin’. Jockey Leparoux won on Java’s War in 2013 and with Irap in 2017. Might need to go longer than 1-1/8. Can’t see it.

#10 Lucky Lee…….The seventh place finisher in the withers looks overmatched here, but he has excellent upfront capability, which he will need to get out of the 9 spot. John Servis trains the son of Flatter with maintenance man Chris Landeros doing the slapping. Maybe a slice?

mikeyp1
mikeyp1

Bluegrass Stakes 2019 G-II, 1-18 miles

Another wide open affair, it appears, with a bunch searching for points….. WIN WIN WIN, Vekoma, Signalman and a “take-a-lookski” at longshot Dream Maker, are part of the 14 horse field. This is an annual race that always seems to be overshadowed, but some steady hands have come out of it as winners. These include the late Irap, who got better afterwards, Dullahan, General Quarters and Carpe Diem in recent years. A race with lots of upsets over the years…..

#1 Somelikeithotbrown…….A lot of early hope and promise for this Big Brown and he hasn’t disappointed with a career 7/3-2-1. Question that needs to be asked is, “Who’s he beat?” Talking out of two sides of my mouth, he has won two stakes and finished third in the other one. He has also won at the distance. He has 20 points so far, so he needs to show up today. Trainer Mike Maker won this in 2010 in shocking fashion with $82.00 winner Stately Victor. GoodBoy Tyler Gafflalione sits in the cow hide, and he’s a winner. No way to dismiss him at 10-1 ML, but he is going to have to get out quick, which is his style, and hope to hold on from early light.

#2 Vekoma…..To quote the great Lou Reed, he seems to be “everyone’s darling.” Indeed, his 9/5 odds makes him the morning fave off his third place finish in the Fountain of Youth, which was won by Code of Honor with Bourbon War coming in second. Note to self: Check to see what COH and BW did since then. He certainly has the speed with some saying he is destined to go turf being out of the great Candy Ride. However, Candy Ride has proven to sire good ones on any surface. What you gotta like? Second start of the year. He gets Castellano up. Good work. Good speed. Not sure if he will go out for the lead, but it’s proved his salvo in his two wins. Trainer George Weaver says the boy has tactical speed. He might need it today.

#3 Signalman…….Well, well. What have we here? Looks like a horse that blew a tire in the FOY, but I choose to toss. He doesn’t have the bestest of speed, but he has journeymen sharpies in McPeek and Brian Hernandez, a record of 4/1-1-1, all of it at age two;  boffo work coming in AND his papa, General Quarters, is a past winner of this race. Not sure if 5-1 is a blessing or a curse, but I must include. He has 18 points and I have to think he will improve today with his mid-pack stance key to his final steps at the end.

mikeyp1
mikeyp1
VET......Joe's on Weed Street. Not too far from where you are. $6 Uber
mikeyp1
mikeyp1

My picks:

#10 Outshine to win and place. I think he’ll be pumping up the jams in the final furlong for the win from behind

$20 exacta whl: 10/1,2

$10 exacta whl: 10/4,5

$2 tri whl: 10/1,,2,4,5/1,2,4,5,11

 

mikeyp1
mikeyp1

#8 Grump Little Tots…..Another Jason Servis, the Sky Mesa colt is improving with each race. He gets Jose Lezcano, a plus for me, with the colt’s best hope to continue to improve today. While this is certainly possible, Grump would be an under, at best.

#9 Math Wizard……He’s got a hot trainer (31% wins) in Joe Saffie, as well as a hot jock this week, Eric Cancel, with 4 wins in 14 starts, but the seven-times raced son of Algorithms has a long way to go at 30/1 ML. Borderline shocker for win. His best race was an 18L win in a Gulfstream claimer.

#10 Outshine…..Pletcher is serious about this one, as the son of the great Malibu Moon has 20 points and needs it. Hence, go-to Johnny V is in the leather for the 2nd place finisher (to Tacitus) in the Tampa Bay Derby (ridden by Rosario that day). Perhaps a tad or two behind on pure speed, this guy is more than capable of hanging back and pouncing for the win with few as tactical as this rider coming from mid-pack or so. Todd has won the Wood five times and, in speaking of the race, says his team looks forward to the added distance for Outshine. Somewhat juicy at 6-1, I think he figures big today.

#11 Joevia……An interesting proposition today, his pappy, Shanghai Bobby, was a very good young one who could have done more had he not been hurt and retired at age three. He won the Hopeful , Champagne and BC Juve. I wouldn’t say Joevia has underachieved so far, but he is most capable of doing better, and if the switch goes on, today might be the day. Second to Haikal in a $150K the Jimmy Winkfield on February 9, his work for this has been off the chart. At 30-1, I must consider for some, if not for all in a massive upset, if he does it, likely stealing it on the front end, IF he can get out of the 11 hole well. Trainer is 27% wins third race layoff, so note.

 

mikeyp1
mikeyp1

#4 Haikal……Impressive in the Gotham with a 102 Brisnet coming from off the pace to win by a length over former KD contender, Mind Control, and Instagram. The boy has won three in a row after a 2nd place finish in his debut. Trainer McLaughlin won this race with Frosted in 2015, with sire, Daaher, winning the 2006 Cigar Mile. Steady jock Maragh goes for his 4th straight on Haikal, who has put in workman-like trots coming in for this. A deserved 7/2 ML.

#5 Final Jeopardy…...Do the names Jason Servis and the West’s ring a bell? The trainer and owners of Maximum Security present a decent earner (3/2-0-1 career) in competitive underling races. The 3rd place finish came with all sorts of trouble before finishing ITM. His first crack at the big-time, the son of Street Sense, Final Jeopardy, is poised to make some noise today and could be the upsetter. On the improve, his next feat of strength could be cracking the 100 Beyer mark in this one, given pace. He gets BIG A’s winter meet leader Manny Franco to handle the strap. At 8-1, I think he’s priced right with a real shot at he points.

#6 Overdeliver……He did best Bodexpress in his maiden, if this helps you. We found out that Bode, the second placer in the FLA Derby, might be the real deal. That said, the boy is one of Pletcher’s B-team players. Quoting Todd, “We didn't really have a firm plan after the Pasco. It's really just been based on his last three works…” Sounds more like the trainer is trolling for bass. Carmouche rides at 20-1 and part of the pace. Never dismiss Pletcher’s motives…..

#7 Not That Brady……Big Brown’s boy has seven career races, including an 8th place finish in the Withers and a second in the Gotham. Despite a respectful 7/2-2-0 lifetime, the guy has been up and down like a poll dancer at Swifty’s Hideaway, earning a 9 Brisnet in the Withers parlayed with a nice 101 in the Gotham in a loss to Tax. Sort of a horse for the course, at 20-1, you decide. Rey Gutiierrez rides for Rudy Rodriguez.

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