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Thread Author totalguy Post Entries
PLAYAAAA1969
PLAYAAAA1969
What's his name?
Wally1317
Wally1317
Good to know that you haven't lost any money on these NOs because you will. YES or no play. Historically the YES hits at just over 50% and is highly correlated to the full game O/U.
Wally1317
Wally1317
You probably should put the lines you are playing on all these NOs as you are likely playing a lot of chalk. You can't win playing the NO. 95% of the time the correct play is either YES or no play. You'll figure that out soon enough. GL
doggydog
doggydog
Quote Originally Posted by DanTos8715:

can't blame gray for this

they can't hit


Exactly.  2ER in 8IP for Gray.  Good enough for the win most nights.
otmshank
otmshank
Shocking.
lostboyca
lostboyca
thetomcat1
thetomcat1
Over the long run, you're gonna need +105 or better on games where the O/U is between 7 and 9.  Those are all coin flip games over the long run on the first inning prop.

GL with your plays.
baronman
baronman
Quote Originally Posted by whodamanny76:

I think you should skip the game and spend some extra time in English class !



thetomcat1
thetomcat1
Did you get +money on each of those lines?  All 6 of those games are basically coin flips, between 48% and 52% chance on the YES.

GL
joker1000
joker1000
Cool story bro.
adbelt
adbelt
Without digging into the numbers, I would suspect that the % of games going into extra innings is correlated to the size of the ML favorite.
adbelt
adbelt
The hold on those 3 way MLB bets is usually 3 to 4 times higher than the hold on the 2 way bets.  It's ridiculous.


adbelt
adbelt
Quote Originally Posted by dimndimn:


doesn't know that an mlb draw is just another recently created prop with extremely high hold percentage usually played by suckers 


THIS^^^
KiefferJDs1
KiefferJDs1
Quote Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:


For August its Yes 129   No 128 really close


Yup.  Like it's been the last 9 seasons I've been playing/tracking this prop.  The YES hit 52-53% of the time from 2005-2007 and now around 51% of time since then.
KiefferJDs1
KiefferJDs1
Looking at those first inning pitcher stats, you would think that the YES rarely hits on that prop.  Actually, the YES hits more often than the NO.

GL
DRE-DAY
DRE-DAY
It all depends on the line with the first inning prop.  You're likely getting bent over badly on those NO prices.

GL
shiveringheights
shiveringheights
Looks like this thread is getting moved too.
mlbwatch11
mlbwatch11
Quote Originally Posted by rammerjammer10:

I played $50 in yes score in 1st inning. +105


The first inning prop on all games of O/U from 7 up to 9 are pure coin flips.  Any time you can get +odds on the first inning prop on any of these games, take it.  Give me +odds on a coin flip every time.

GL
mlbwatch11
mlbwatch11
If you have the YES at +115, I'd hammer that instead.  That a +6.3% EV.

GL
mlbwatch11
mlbwatch11
-145?  Wow that is a ridiculously bad line!!!  That's an EV of -11.6%.  I don't think I've ever seen an EV that bad on the first inning prop.

GL