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MENACE
MENACE
Nascar / All Star Race / View Post
Gl ruff
MENACE
MENACE
Nascar / All Star Race / View Post
And a stab at kyle 15-1 for a half because he's kyle
MENACE
MENACE
Nascar / All Star Race / View Post
And watch out for Dortmund in the Preakness. Getting overlooked.
MENACE
MENACE
Nascar / All Star Race / View Post
Jimmie at 6-1.

Good luck all...
IllusionsGOB
IllusionsGOB

GL GOB

 

I got over in Tex/Det so I hope the Tigers put up a bunch for you.  I am expecting 7 or so from Texas...

IllusionsGOB
IllusionsGOB
Quote Originally Posted by KeekanJones:

Turn it around GOB!!

 

 = Your avatar

IllusionsGOB
IllusionsGOB

Quote Originally Posted by KeekanJones:

Waiting on your Thursday plays.

 

 = your avatar!

IllusionsGOB
IllusionsGOB

Putting $ behind Jonathon Sanchez =  x 42!

 

GL tho...

IllusionsGOB
IllusionsGOB

Quote Originally Posted by IllusionsGOB:

Menace - I never saw your plays. I thought when you posted "Biffle" you were saying to take him today. Wish I knew it was last night, lol. Feel free to post it in my thread next Saturday. 

 

Will do.  I texted you too.  I didn't want to clutter your bases thread with it and didn't have time to post it all anyway.  Oh well, next week.

 

Did you watch O's/Jays?  I was pretty impressed with Drabek, wondering if you saw him today and have any thoughts if so...

IllusionsGOB
IllusionsGOB

So pissed I missed over in Tribe game, was doing some shit. 

 

Biffle won race last night!  He, Kenseth and Martin came top 5, plus Carl and Truex top 10.  Also went 3-2 on matchups (4-1 if 1 of my plays didn't run out of gas on last lap ).  Quick 9.99 unit profit after a 3 hour race will work for me til next week! 

 

Nice hit on Jays over.  I'm happy Drabek didn't help you at all and you still got there.  He threw a gem that I watched all of and am impressed.  Dominated Yanks last spring start, solid 1st outing vs BoSox last week, dominant today.  Hoping he has confidence in his stuff and thinks he belongs now, cause that's the biggest thing for a young dude with his ability.  His change-up is news to me and good stuff.

 

 

 

 

IllusionsGOB
IllusionsGOB

- The Braves were the worst hitting team against lefties last year, and already this year they once again rank in the bottom half of the league in OPS against southpaws. Milwaukee's Chris Narveson, who tossed six shutout innings against the Braves last year, is a solid starting option today.

 

Also - Venters AND Kimbrel pitched again yesterday.

 

I'm taking MIL again.

 

 

Greg Biffle =

IllusionsGOB
IllusionsGOB
Took the Beer makers and their team total over 3.5, oh yea 
IllusionsGOB
IllusionsGOB

Dude - its getting insane how routine TEX making me $ is.  Fun stuff.

 

Side note - I didn't play anything on those bullpen notes made, but if Brewers is still on the board I am going to play them...

IllusionsGOB
IllusionsGOB

GL

Phillies are the strongest NL play today.  If you don't lay 155 or like RL...you could always combine the 2 for a line of -1 somewhere around even.  I played RL for half as much as I did ML.  That's usually what I do if I have to lay some juice on a play I really like.

 

3 other notes if you have a leaning already or time to construct a play on opp or over or whatever...

1)   Colorado bullpen is gased (Betancourt and Brothers), but I just can't play Collmenter and Chacyin has a good history vs a few Zona bats.

2)   Atlanta bullpen may be limited:  Kimbrel has thrown 56 pitches in 3 app's last 4 nights, Venters 45 pitches in the same game appearances.

3)   Dodgers bullpen has been used a lot too:  Guerra 3 straight nights before last night's off night.  Jansen 27 pitches last night, didn't pitch Thurs, but did Tue and Wed.

 

I know other guys are available and shit, but every rp I just mentioned is a flat out beast (except Guerra, and he is good).  I fully expect to see late inning runs somewhere in those games...

 

GL.  By the way, there is a Nascar race tonight that I will be analyzing thouroghly in the next hour or two if you want me to pass along my research results.

IllusionsGOB
IllusionsGOB

Almost pulled trigger on TX under myself today (did play TX RL small).  had no feel on LAA/Minny, but would agree with you if somebody had a pistol to my head.

 

I played (incase you care to gander at any)...

Tigers (they will punish Niemann after seeing Shields and Moore the last two days, and a few of their hitters have neat history's vs Niemann).

Giants (If I'm a batter and I get to see/destroy weak ass Lincecum, then face the stellar lefty (Bumgarner) looking to bounce back from his suspect 1st start the next day...I won't expect great things to happen).  2 more words that went into this play for me: Jamie Moyer.

Brewers (Greinke + the MUCH better lineup + the MUCH better bullpen at a short - = auto-play).

Dodgers (This team is the most under - rated in baseball in my opinion until the country catches on.  Too many reasons to list).

 

GL today...

nropp11
nropp11
MLB Betting / Tuesday Bases / View Post
But...NOBODY is worse than Weber in my opinion, so enjoy
nropp11
nropp11
MLB Betting / Tuesday Bases / View Post

 

 

Groce = Yucky

IllusionsGOB
IllusionsGOB

What the hell, just said screw it and checked results for every win they had last year.  Here is each month with wins, followed by run line wins.

APRIL:  16...13

MAY:  13...9

JUNE:  14...11

JULY:  18...16

AUG:  16...12

SEPT:  19...16

PLAYOFFS:  10...6 (played 17 games)

 

So for the year they had 106 wins and covered the run line in 83 of them.  Do you have any #'s as to league average or a typical juice difference on ml - rl for teams usually favored?  I'd imagine if they were on average a -180 favorite in their wins only (most at home, etc), then the average RL in those games were pk or -110.

Based on that...I'd imagine the 83 RL wins would be WELL worth the $ difference compared to the 106 ML wins in the 179 games they played last year.  And the difference is probably a lot higher in juice than the -180/pk ratio I used (tonight they're -240/-115)!  I mean seriously, who the hell lays 240 in a baseball game

 

That's enough about 1 game / team though.  I gotta check out the rest of tonight's board...

IllusionsGOB
IllusionsGOB

That Rangers play for me was RL not ML, and it was last night (W).

 

But as for tonight and in general...

 

Tonight: I will have TX RL.

In general: I don't love taking favorite RL's, especially at home.  But here's a fun fact...

Texas last year: 96-66 (+12.75 U)

Texas RL last year: 91-71 (+32.9 U)

I have to think they had the lowest ratio of ML wins - RL losses in MLB last year, but didn't feel like taking the time necessary to confirm that.

I would NOT underestimate their lineup, it is incredible in my opinion.  Kinsler is the healthiest he's ever been, Cruz as healthy as ever and dropped 15 pounds in offseason to get in good shape (he won't lose any power), etc...

The bullpen has to be the best in baseball.  I wouldn't trade Ogando for anyone as the bridge from starter to back end of pen.  Nathan fully recovered from Tommy John.  We all know what Mike Adams is, etc.

 

That's enough, good luck if you join, but I'm laying the 1.5 with confidence and will hope for the best (obviously nothing in betting has ever been a lock other than Smarty Jones winning the Derby the year he did)

nropp11
nropp11
MLB Betting / Tuesday Bases / View Post

I hope the Rays score 7 more runs for you buddy (tough for opponent's to get runners home vs the AL Cy Young contender Matt Moore - yea, I said it).

 

By the way, did Illinois hire a men's coach w/out me noticing it?

 

GL in bases this year.

 

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