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bigvern1013

bigvern1013
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Quote Originally Posted by DoubleUp4Life:



I hope yourey right Brother ....

Ankle injuries suck though , the pain and swelling is usually worse day 2-5 .....

I'm subtracting at least 2 points off their point spread rating due to his limited status , as much as 6 points if he is severely hampered 



Best of Luck Brother

Absolutely right...the initial injury pales in comparison the swelling and rigormortis that sets in 48 hours after the trauma. Anyone who has had one and tried to compete knows...

If it is a bad one, he may be able to loosen it up and start, but that thing will tighten up as the game progresses. 

Ankles are brutal...can't plant, no strength. He may play, but effectively???

Great info Double.  Best of luck!
19
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

2019 Record: 2-1

Cowboys over Seahawks 30 Units W
Raptors over Spurs 1 Unit L
Eagles over Saints 4 Units W
Lakers over Bulls 4 Units W

+32 Units


Usually, I'd wait around the two weeks to gather all the information I need but I feel so comfortable with this one, I only needed a few hours of quiet calm and research before I posted it. That post comes right here.

I am taking the Rams +1.5. It opened at -1 and less than 4 hours I am already the beneficiary of a 2.5 pt swing in a very tight spot. I'll take every point.

Here's why:

1. This Rams team is modeled after the Seahawks Super Bowl Winning Team of 2014 and the Eagles of 2018 and their financial formula under the NFL cap rules has worked to perfection.

This is the new formula for success in the NFL:

Pay your QB on a rookie deal and unload at the other positions grabbing up all the prized free agents. 

It's how the Seahawks were able to spend so much on the Legion of Boom and how the Eagles paid Wentz virtually nothing in comparison to all their prized positions and offseason signings which lead to a title. BOTH paid off with a Super Bowl Victory and really, that formula has worked 3 times in 5 years if Pete Carroll just calls 4 running plays to end a game.

And here we are again with the Rams. Goff is paid a base salary of $3 million dollars. That is insanity. 


Good writeup, I don't disagree. 

But, I love the comment highlighted in red. If "Pete Carrol calls 4 run plays".....I have heard this one a million times since the Seahawks choked it away vs the Pats. The correct answer was to give the ball to Lynch on the goaline, as many times as needed.

That being said: Russel Wilson was the QB...he could of checked into the Lynch run anytime he wanted. But, he wanted to throw the winning TD. Greed cost him, and the Hawks, dearly. End of story.

That pick is Wilson, no one else. And, as is typical of an epic meltdown, the Seahawks haven't won since. Surprising this hasn't been more of an issue...

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Quote Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:

Good luck with your massive all-in wager.  I am just a small bettor, so the outcome will be financially immaterial to me, but I still relish the intellectual challenge of sports betting.

In my humble opinion, sports betting is all about discipline and is not much of an intellectual challenge.

When you do this for long enough, you begin to understand that for the vast majority of sporting events there is no "right side."  Betting into an odds primer on contests with such short time horizons is, well, gambling.

Gambling isn't an intellectual challenge. It is an exercise in discipline. 

That being said, best of luck with your wagers. 
84
Cold makes the ball slick, tough to get good rotation. We saw some of this last week vs the Colts.

That is one thing I will give Brady...he gets great nose-down rotation inside of 15 yards. This is a big advantage for the Pats in cold weather games.
63
Tough to fade NE with KC's history...after the blocked punt vs the Colts, everyone in the stadium was holding their breath. They were up 17-7...

NE will drag KC into deep water, and that isn't good for Mahomes. Zone Ds in the redzone will lead to INTs. Mahomes didn't look good at all in the second half vs the Colts. If KC falls behind, the NE run game will kill the clock.

Look for a short game and NE outright W @ +140 ML. 
30
Showing 132.5 at youwager...looks like you are on to something. Time of year lends itself well to expertise. Conference play kicking off, out of the break.

Somebody knows something.
440
bigvern1013 replied to Thurs 1/10 Hofstra
in College Basketball
I bet quite a bit on Hofstra in a blind tail play. Actually turned the game off at the 8-minute mark...had a shot to go up 8 and ended up down 2 from 10:30 to 7:50.

Just checked my account and was pleasantly surprised...then saw the game went to 3 OTs. Glad I tuned out, nothing worse than close games when the jack is down.

Good pick. 
22
This line raised my eyebrows, to be honest, I was tempted to unload on Houston.

But, Temple gets to the line 28 times, makes 25. That's the ballgame...
5
*Utah was an autofade against anyone remotely good.
4
I agree, this season was a dandy. It just seemed like there were a lot of good opportunities.

Backing the contenders in late November was like printing money. Georgia, Clemson, ND and OU down the stretch (not in the playoff)...even UW produced three covers in a row.

Utah was an autofade. I hope next year shapes up the same way. Would have loved to have been in the stands last night to see that action.

4
Great game, 14 was the most you could lay in this one. Hats off to EWU, a very game effort.

Refs were terrible, changed the game from the opening jump. EWU topped out where I thought they would points wise. The zone confused Barrier, two bad interceptions.

If these teams played 10 times, I am not convinced NDSU wins 7 of them. But, they are something else and anyone who got the 13.5 was right to lay the points. 

One other thing...not sure Stick should have scored on the last NDSU play. Believe it or not, going down after the 1st was achieved is the right play...especially with how fast EWU can score. No point to prolong the game there, but it did cover the opening number.

Great season fellas, to be honest, kind of glad it is over. Clemmy should be a live dog on Monday, but we will see how the betting/storylines go over the next 48 hours.

BOL Guys 
25
Yeah, I can definitely see this game being close, especially if EWU can weather the early storm. NDSU isn't scared to grind out a win on the ground if they have to and I don't expect them to push the tempo. Could easily be a 10 pt ballgame...

However, I like that NDSU D, especially mixing up zone looks for Barrier...Maine tried to play man and got destroyed. I look for EWU to top out in the 17-24 point area and end up kick fgs in the redzone.

Was hoping for a slighter number than 16, but we'll see what it looks like tomorrow.

BOL with your bets 
25
bigvern1013 created a topic FCS Championship: NDSU vs EWU
in College Football
The big day in the FCS is almost here and the Bizon are huge favorites. NDSU -16 is a monster number, especially against an offense that can score points like EWU can.

This is a classic defense vs offense matchup, but NDSU can score as well. Here are a few observations:

1) EWU will have a real problem stopping the run game, which can make the game real short. If the game is close midway through the second quarter, an NDSU cover becomes unlikely.
2) NDSU's zone defense is going to throw QB Barrier off, at least early on. Washington did a similar thing against OSU in the Rose Bowl, except the linebacker couldn't get enough depth in the redzone and it cost 2 TDs. NDSU will play great in these spots.
3) EWU doesn't have to play the Bizon in Fargo. That is huge...
4) Weather in Frisco is supposed to be 64 and a little wind. Don't completely discount the start time either...it will be a 9 AM start for EWU players.

Add it all up and the deck is stacked in NDSU's favor. However, if the game is close, then covering the 16 is going to be tough. For me it is NDSU or nothing, but I will be waiting for a retracement to 14 ish. Anything under 14 is a nice sized play on NDSU, from 14-17 is a light one.

Best of luck on your picks 
25
bigvern1013 replied to 10 team parlay
in College Football
Upon further review....Shenanigans!

4 of your picks are from the 28th and this was posted the 29th... 
28
bigvern1013 replied to 10 team parlay
in College Football

Have to take at least a little chunk of that 60K home after all that work!
28
If the NCAA proves that the use of prohormones is systemic in Clemson's program, Dabo is done.

The bad part of that statement is that ESPN is the NCAA's enforcement wing...if this story gets legs going into Spring ball, Dabo is out on circumstantial evidence alone. Wait and see. 
30
Yeah, the zone D is going to be a riddle for Barrier i
n the red zone. EWU tops out in the 17-24 range. NDSU is the matchup to smack that offense. Let's hope the public believe in eastern. 
53
Ndsu is going to own ewu....they will play zone and mix coverages. I like NDSU -10 or better.
53
NDSU offensive line play was a clinic. That is why they are dominate...the D front 7 and that O-line. Stick is good, the backs are serviceable, but they pound teams at the line of scrimmage...something that most FBS teams in the modern era have forgotten how to do.

SDSU did put up some good ground numbers though. Of course, it didn't matter...it never does in Fargo. You have to have a real top-notch D to win in that place. Maine is better title game matchup, but they aren't getting out of EWU today. 


37
Espn's announcers for FCS stink, but at least Stinchcomb broke down what NDSU does up front on the O-line. The pulling, trapping, and downblocking is really something to watch. The QB draw game with Stick is lethal, especially when you have a center that can pull and get second level blocks. Wow...last night was a clinic in O-line play.

To be honest, Maine matches up better to stop NDSU than Eastern does. Regardless, there are plays to be made down the field against the Bizon secondary, but you have to get time to throw first...I give EWU a "punchers chance" to pull the upset, but it has to be a shootout.

All that aside, just locked in EWU -13 (-109) pretty large. Weather should be a non-factor, 38 degrees wind at 9mph. The wind isn't supposed to kick up, but weather in the Northwest this time of year is unpredictable.

This thing should look like a 42-10, 49-17, or 52-28...we will see. 

BOL 


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