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scalabrine
scalabrine
Quote Originally Posted by LRM704:

Don't want the points.......Don't need the points   an_horse


You are correct. 3 won’t matter. Better to fall on your sword without the indignity of taking a handicap. 

scalabrine
scalabrine
Quote Originally Posted by LRM704:

Jets win this rather easily. One of the first things we learn in the betting world...NEVER EVER bet against a streak. Winning streak, losing streak it doesn't matter.......ride the wave or find another game. 

 

GL JETS backers  peace_5


I would promote the EXACT opposite of this to those who’d lend me an ear.

Betting on teams during winning streaks forces you to pay the highest premium as everyone clamors on the favorite. Look for major dog value in those situations.

Betting on teams to break a losing streaks allows you to get the lowest lines possible UNTIL that streak will clealry come to an end, as is the case here and the public knows it, possibly turning a dog into a still bettable favorite.

This strategy has made me a mountain of money. Everest size....
scalabrine
scalabrine
Before Week 1 of 2019 season, who will be the first to no longer be with the Steeler for any reason?:

BetOnline.com


Big Ben +100

Mike tomlin +150

Antonio Brown +400

All money refunded if all three remain.

Lots of possibilities here:

Tomlin being relieved of his duties

Ben retiring 

Antonio forcing his way out

Discuss???
scalabrine
scalabrine
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

Not worried whatsoever that almost 70% of the action is on a team giving 3 points at home?

Most of the books are even making you pay at least -120 for -3.  Just insane people are willing to lay points with this team and then lay juice on top of those points.  

I could understand laying 3 against the Bills or Cardinals (The only two teams worse than the Browns with Tyrod Taylor), but not against a team coming off of a loss with a competent QB and a good coaching staff.  

This line is BEGGING you to lay the 3 and the juice.  Books are overjoyed with the action right now.  

Nobody is laying juice.

I posted at -110.

You can’t come back in the thread and talk about current juice when the line is going up to 3.5, making my -3 -110 a bargain, which I always said it was.

Good post Titus. Interesting read.

Thank you GOAT. I LOVE Jet fans being honest and fading their team when appropriate. It’s honest capping over adamant team homerism.
scalabrine
scalabrine
Quote Originally Posted by mbialowas:

 

Why are you telling people to choke down that much chalk and take Mizzou moneyline? Not everyone is as square as you


Choke down??? Really???

Maybe because they asked.

And given I posted the game for them at -2.5 and now they ask at -5 and -7.5, the only option FOR THEM is the MONEYLINE 

which is why I posted the lookahead line (knowing it would rise)

Which is why I told them to take the ML (to mimic my line and they know full well that is their penalty for not getting in earlier if they had access to he line).

And amazingly you have the audacity to say something when BOTH plays made people money??????? Get a life.

Johnny, Roman Over Braun was a push. I have no fear of non-finishes. Books refund the money. It happens occasionally and you wait and they fight again at another PPV.


bpickin
bpickin
He is Responsible for a ridiculous 24 of 25 TD’s run or pass since the beginning of last year....
scalabrine
scalabrine
Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

Counterpoint: seems like Pitts and New Orleans are having their own significant issues, so despite the Browns being 2 made kicks away from being 2-0, they have only proved to still be the same old Browns who are deathly allergic to winning a football game...until they show the world they can win a game, they should not be a fav by 3 here imo.



Our first confirmed case of SPREAD PRETENTIOUSNESS!!!

Cut to Rod Serling’s Eye of the Beholder episode where the doctor (me) is removing ththe face gauze from the patient (Packers)

:::last piece of gauze is unwrapped from Packers face:::

Scal (playing the Doctor): No change!!! No change at all!!!

:::screams of horror and revulsion::::

Packers runs down hallway corridor in an untied hospital gown...

End Scene


Lesson (cigarette in hand, sitting on desk in a suit)

There is no cure for SPREAD PRETENTIOUSNESS!

Do do do do do do do

Next week! Tune into the Living Doll starring Telly Salvalas!



scalabrine
scalabrine
The Browns RSW total was the same as the Jets (5.5/6 for both depending on the book). Jets RSW total dropped below the Browns RSW when it was announced they’d start Darnold

Hence on a neutral field this like would be a pickum.

It is the correct line.
scalabrine
scalabrine
So you think the Jets should lay 6 at home? Because that is what a pickum means.

That’s a losing bet. The books would never have the Jets lay 6 at home.

If you REVERSE THE LINE for home field, the 3 makes almost perfect sense.
scalabrine
scalabrine
There is a virus in the capping world called:

Spread Pretentiousness

This refers to a capper, who having capped for a significant portion of their life, sees a line at first blush and says the words, “Well I can’t possibly lay THAT many points with such an awful team, or any points at all for that matter!”

OR they say,

“Well I can’t, in good faith lay THAT large a spread on a game! That’s just a spread that will be decided in garbage time.”

Don’t catch this virus.

It will cost you a large amount of your bankroll over the long term.

You can lay 3 points with the Browns just like you can’t lay 24 points to Ole Miss (62-7 final) just like you can lay 35 with OSU over RU (52-3) just like you can lay -6 with the Knicks over the Nets on too many occasions to name.

Just open your online book and look at a spread for what it is. If you have this virus you won’t be able to fight it as you hem and haw over your laptop screaming “The NERVE of these bookmakers who’d think I’d give POINTS with such an abhorrent team” pulling your best Carilla De’Ville impression from 101 Dalmatians, maybe even smoking a Virginia Slim in a foot long cigarette holder.

Don’t be this person. This is a very sick person. There is no known cure other than reading threads on Covers, which typically worsens the symptoms before it cures them.
scalabrine
scalabrine
Crash, I’ve bet on rutgers and St. John’s in the midst of MASSIVE CBB losing streaks laying points.

If this game comes out a pickum that means the Jets are a 6/6.5 pt home favorite?

Does that make sense?

Would you take the Jets laying a TD at home against the Browns clealry ready to win one?

NO. 

The line actually MAKES SENSE when you reverse it for the other home team you are SUPPOSED to feel uncomfortable with a favorite and a line, particularly one at home, even the Browns.
scalabrine
scalabrine
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:

Not betting these days, Scal, but I like the pick a lot not only because of the streak etc. but the fact that it is on national tv and the only game in town. That is big for this Browns team looking to make some noise. Also, the Jets already got their big win on national tv on Monday night and I think that is another reason to fade them here. For that lowly franchise to do it twice in three weeks would be remarkable indeed, even against a Browns team that has been putrid for years.

Good luck!

BB, how are ya!

My basketball betting friend here can attest to how streak busting can result in blowouts, particularly historic ones.

He was with me in the NBA forum and took the Cavs +6 over the Pistons to snap an NBA record 26 game losing streak, the night after the Pistons lost by 32 after 'honoring' their Bad Boys era team at halftime, basically screaming out they wanted to fall on their sword to the Sixers.

They lost by 25 to snap the 26 game Cavs losing streak.

When streaks get broken, like this Browns streak, it can get ugly. That's why the Browns laying 3 is not a worry at all for me.

Now you may say the NBA streak busting is neither here nor there with regard to this game, but as a psychological capper, and as BB understands, all of these athlete mindsets meld together.
scalabrine
scalabrine
I only play one game a week Porcelain. One NFL and One CFB. It's worked wonders for me. Not interested in the Bills game whatsoever.

Stump Josh Gordon is a disaster. You do not want him. Believe me, in 6 games they'll want to run him out of town.

Thanks Habs. Very informative addition to the thread. If you read the thread, I'M the one who noted the result of that game.
scalabrine
scalabrine
Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

I hate to say it but think the Browns take the Jets to the woodshed.  I’m surprised how good the Browns defense is.  What they did against the Saints is very impressive.  Darnold has to play and has had moments but he’s throwing at least 2 picks.  The books threw a 3 for a reason, it’s because the Browns are better.  As always we shall see. 

When this guy agrees with me, the yin and yang of covers, you know you are in trouble if you have the Jets.
scalabrine
scalabrine
Let me rephrase one sentence to avoid further confusion:

According to what you said about Nunes vs. Rousey, you would leave +125 on the table because it wasn't worth betting when +165 was once available in the markets (not to you but the public bet down Nunes and all her 'value').

Please reread my post (from post #1).

And skip all the idiot windbag fodder in between.

Lots to love and learn about capping (and life).
scalabrine
scalabrine
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:



See, this is where you are misguided.  Let's give an example of Canelo vs GGG.  

Canelo was +125 Saturday morning.  I loved Canelo going into the fight so I'm thinking +125 is a solid bet, but i figured the public loved GGG, so they would bet him throughout the day.  I was right and right before the fight I was able to snag Canelo at +165.  Because of the fact that I got 40 cents more than I thought I would, I bet 3x more than I would have if he was +125.  

+125 he was a solid bet, but at +165, the value got so much greater, so I had to bet way more money that I would have.

Sure, when you bet Nunes at +125, you thought it was good value and it obviously ended up being good because she won so easily, but that doesn't mean it was good value compared to what you could have gotten and didn't get because you waited too long to bet it.  
 

I agree with everything you said here.

But what you offered is the reverse of what I'm arguing.

An appropriate example would have said Canelo opened at +165 and then when you got online or to the window it was at +125 and the line had settled. Then the rest of the day ONLY +125 was available before starting the fight.

In that situation, should you take the +125 on Canelo if you capped him on the winner?

My answer is YES in that, through the memoryless property, +165 is irrelevant as it was never available to you.

According to what you said about Nunes vs. Rousey, you would leave +125 on the table because it wasn't worth betting when you could have gotten it for +165.

Now Nunes was more extreme at +200 previously but it is the same point.

I make a standing offer for you to reread this entire thread for capping nuggets. It just might be worth your while.

scalabrine
scalabrine
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:


Your bringing up a fight from 2 years ago?

I don't remember the last Jets game I bet on and lost, so you may know the team inside out, but I don't miss Jets bets, so I'd like to think I know the team pretty well too.  And your thoughts about perceived value and what not are so false it's frightening.  Good luck next week, but we definitely will have to agree to disagree on all of these points.

What’s frightening is your perception of “value” which leads you to betting with scared money (pun intended).

Nunes at +135 is the window of opportunity for ME. Your window included +200. 

There’s a thing in math called the memoryless property. It’s why casinos are successful when they post an electric grid of roulette numbers but know, through the memoryless property, the marble and wheel’s odds don’t change due to previous outcomes.

I think of my bets as the same. If I come to the table at +135 that is my starting point and the past is memoryless. Then I don’t have all the anxiety you have over having lost +200 on the betting line.

40 seconds later I was paid off by Nunes.

So let’s let bygones be bygones.

Are you betting Cyborg to beat Nunes? And is the current line of -300 a good one? (A pertinent question since that is the current line to discuss).
scalabrine
scalabrine
WHO CARES if the Jets are better! They ARE in many regards. That is quite obvious. The Browns coaching staff is a dumpster fire. Again, obvious.

In this spot after the Saints loss, I see a breakout win. I waited for this game for a YEAR after the last Jets Browns game where the Jets were also clealry better and the Browns coaching staff gift wrapped them the win. It’s called situational capping. They have enough of a roster overhaul this year to get it done. And who knows what assets are coming their way in the Patriots trade for Gordon.

Stump I will try to ignore them. But I can’t ignore getting bashed for a winning play posted a MONTH ago so everyone here could join in and not get a line of -7 and -5 and lose. That is above and beyond anything I’ve ever seen here. The imbecility is astounding.
scalabrine
scalabrine
They all come out of the woodwork with one loss don’t they. Hiding. In the shadows.

Yes I guess “brutal lately” is:

RU -16.5 over Texas State W
OSU -35 Over RU W
Mizzou -2.5 over Purdue W
Mizzou -200 ML over Purdue W
Orton -280 Over Harry W
Rousey -900 Over Bliss W
Army -6.5 Over Hawaii lean W

I guess ALL that gets trumped by ONE posted loss and classifies as “brutal lately”.

Keep typing Flutie. First, you proved don’t even know what a lookahead line means in a POSTED play. Then you can’t even adequately speak to someone who is paying people’s mortgages this month. Browns will be added to cover utilities.

Now scram kid. I have to get back to putting cotton balls in my ears before Mr. Anxiety Papa quibbles some more over 3 points in an NFL game.

scalabrine
scalabrine
Papa you’re the guy who said DON’T bet Nunes against Rousey because when I got in, her odds were “awful”.

Even though her odds were +135 and I had no knowledge of any previous lines (+200 at one point).

This is gambling mantras of “CHASING PERCEIVED VALUE” and “Nail Biting Over public support”.

The latter is a shortcut and has NOTHING to do with a fully capped game. It is a tool you use when you DON’T know a team inside and out like I do the Jets.

The former is one of the most misunderstood concepts in all of sportsbetting (I.e. “I can’t bet this game or fight because all the “value” is gone.”). “Value” is an arbitrary measure. I see this line as a bargain.

And the fact that the Jets are “better” doesn’t compensate you for the home field, short turnaround on the road in 11 days, or the breakout game the Browns clealry will have sooner than later. And I believe that to be on Thursday.

And thank you for letting me know the coaching staff on the Jets is better. Me and 7 billion other people must have missed that memo.