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Mikado
Mikado
A Clipper team on the road with a one-day break is, IMO, good enough to keep them in the hunt right through to the finish. Vinnie could start the game with his 2nd unit and not miss a step. The bench for the Clips is as deep as it gets.

But there's no avoiding the fact that Denver is a hell of a team at home. Given the revenge factor, the opportunity of breaking the L.A. win streak and the attention this contest will receive around the league should be motivation enough for the Nuggets to keep up and very possibly win. External issues such as these, in combination with the Clippers' strong desire to prolong their victory run could force the game to go down to the wire. 

I really don't see this game ending by more than a 3-point-spread regardless of who comes out on top. No matter who "looses" (c'mon guys ... loose is anything that isn't tight and lose is what neither team wants to do tonight), I'm planning to watch one hell of a hotly contested match this evening!

BOL to all!
HERMES
HERMES
Very nice write-up, Hermes. While I agree with your perspective (the Wizards have to win one sooner or later, don't they?), I see this game being close at the end. Wouldn't surprise me in the least to see the last couple of shots (free throws?) determining the outcome.

But yeah ... this could well be the first victory for the hapless Wiz.
hustlehard123
hustlehard123
Life's Rule of Thumb After Making a Financial Arrangement:

Anytime someone "adjusts" the agreement during the course of conducting business without first discussing and agreeing upon said changes with all involved parties is cause for concern.

Find another bookie.
WriterGuy
WriterGuy
Back on the winning end of things, finally. The New York/San Antonio and Miami/Denver games, both ties, came through. If I let myself, I'll stew about the 5-point game in Brooklyn, one I'd picked the Nets to win. One more stinkin' free throw, and I'm in the chips.

But again, a small return is still a win. In which case, it's okay ... this time. 
WriterGuy
WriterGuy
Back at it again.

Since NBA Thursdays has a limited number of games available, I'm playing all three contests on a 3-to-get-2 combo ticket. Meaning I need to get two-out-of-three correct to receive a return.

Sorry, no time for write-ups. So, for the record, here's what I'm playing tonight:

Boston @ New Jersey: I like the Nets to roll against a tough Boston team that played last night and may not have the services of Rondo. If so, that'll hurt 'em.

Nets to win.

New York @ San Antonio: What a match-up! One team has yet to lose and the other team only has one black mark against them. Unless the Knicks come unglued by the venue and the team they're facing, I can see this going down to the wire.

Tie.

Miami @ Denver. This is a difficult call. Denver cooled their heels last night while Miami was losing to the Clippers by 7 points. I'm wavering between a tie and a Denver win because the Heat, as fearsome as they typically are, have gotta be weary. Wade's playing hurt and I can see where they could be too tired to keep up.

Then again, Denver is excellent when it's on and very average when they're not. Hard to get a consistent feel for these guys, which is one reason why tonight is tough.

But for now, I'm liking the game to be close with perhaps free throws or a late spurt being the difference.

Tie

Good luck to us all!  


WriterGuy
WriterGuy
I play by Sports Action rules.

A winning team must do so by 6 points.

A game is declared a tie when the winner does so by 5 points or less.

I most frequently play a Combo Ticket, 3-to-get-2. In which case, I must correctly predict the outcome of three games and get two of them right. This typically yields a small profit.

Getting one correct is not enough, and the ticket is dead.

Getting all three correct is cause for celebration.

Took a few days off to re-think and adjust. The result of contemplating my strategy (or lack of it) is below. Again, in Sports Action terms, here's how I'm approaching tonight's games:

Miami @ Houston: The Heat were outplayed last night in Memphis, getting hurt badly by great 3-point shooting on the Grizzlies' part. I don't see that happening tonight in Houston. While I believe the Rockets are a very good home team overall, they're in tough. IMO, Miami, coming off a lopsided loss, won't permit them to mimic the Memphis offensive output.

Very possibly a close 3 - 8 point differential most of the way, I'd expect the Heat to indeed turn up the heat in Houston.

Miami Heat to win.

Atlanta @ Portland: Both teams recently lost to the L.A. Clippers, but even though the southern California entry can be extremely powerful, they also have occasional lapses. Can't take too much from those outcomes. FWIW, the Hawks' chances of pulling off an upset were even less than the Blazers, in that they played at the Staples Center, whereas Portland was in the friendly confines of the Rose Garden.

Based as much on home court advantage as the fact that they've now lost three in a row and need to right the ship, I'm of the opinion Portland will do enough to gain the victory.

Portland Trailblazers to win.

NFL: Kansas City @ Pittsburgh: If I need to explain this pick, you shouldn't be betting.

Pittsburgh Steelers to win.
WriterGuy
WriterGuy
The ticket is over and done. The closest result was a 7-point victory by Phoenix over Charlotte. Even without a final score from the L.A. @ Utah game, this thing is over.

Back to the drawing board.
RussellK
RussellK
Nice write-ups ... very thoughtful.

Good luck to us all!  
WriterGuy
WriterGuy
Quote Originally Posted by ohnoahboi:

Hoe do u consider it a tie when the teams you chose already gives uner 5 pts?

Not sure I understand your question. What I've done is pick four games, all of them to finish with the winner doing so by 5 points or less.

Where I was negligent was in not saying that this particular ticket was a 4-to-get-2. Playing four games, and getting two correct returns my bet and a few $ beyond. Winning three-out-of-four is quite a bit better and, of course, getting all four right is a "pop the champagne bottle" good.
WriterGuy
WriterGuy
Quote Originally Posted by ceebone7915:

and george karl also been the nuggets head coach for if not a whole decade now. he not in milwaukee anymore

 

Jeez. That's what happens when you type faster than you think. Obviously, ignore everything I said about George Karl (although I DO think he's a helluva coach).

WriterGuy
WriterGuy
 play by Sports Action rules.

A winning team must do so by 6 points.

A game is declared a tie when the winner does so by 5 points or less.

I most frequently play a Combo Ticket, 3-to-get-2. In which case, I must correctly predict the outcome of three games and get two of them right. This typically yields a small profit.

Getting one correct is not enough, and the ticket is dead.

Getting all three correct is cause for celebration.


Well, for better or for worse, here's tonight's Sports Action ticket. BTW, if I ever say don't go for too many ties again, ignore me. :


Phoenix @ Charlotte: Tie. I'm not quite as high on the Bobs as I was last night. Still think they'll win, but it'll be closer than originally stated.

Memphis @ Milwaukee: Tie. Still seeing this as a tight game. The Bucks at home can usually keep up, and as good as Memphis is, they're not quite at their best yet.

Philadelphia @ New Orleans: Tie. Not too certain about this, given the 76'ers game at home against the Knicks. They were, plain and simple, outplayed and out-coached. I'm not ready to say it's a trend, but it gives one pause. Worth a shot, I guess.

The Hornets are off to a good start and I think it continues at home. Depending on Philly's game tonight, this could go either way. Maybe.

L.A. Lakers @ Utah: Tie again (gulp). Not convinced the L.A. team has pulled it together as pre-season predictions would have it. Yeah, they positively dominated and blew out Detroit on the Lakers own floor, but then again ... shouldn't they have done so? Visiting a Jazz team that didn't impress on the road, but what with the Lakers' crappy record in Salt Lake, I can see this one also being a back-and-forth effort.

If this sinks like the proverbial rock, I'll take some time to re-evaluate my strategy.

Good luck to us all!  

WriterGuy
WriterGuy
To all wandering eyeballs:

I play by Sports Action rules. 

A winning team must do so by 6 points or more.

A game is declared a tie when the winner does so by 5 points or less.

I tend to play a Combo Ticket, most frequently 3-to-get-2. Simply put, I must correctly predict the outcome (win or tie) of three games and get two of them right. This typically yields a small profit. 

Getting one correct is not enough, and the ticket is dead.

Getting all three correct is cause for celebration.

For the curious and the bored, here are my early leans, all to be more fully researched later in the day:

Phoenix @ Charlotte: I'm leaning towards Charlotte in this situation. I think they're a spunky team that still has a bad taste in its mouth about last year's debacle. They'll be much tougher this time around. 

Phoenix can score but the team defense is porous. On the road, they don't usually play with the same confidence as at home. Perhaps a tie consideration, but only if I can be convinced that the Bobcats will not take full advantage of the Suns' lousy D. Tonight's prediction: Charlotte to win or a tie.

Memphis @ Milwaukee: This has all the makings of a tight back-and-forth game. As stated before, the Grizzlies are rock-solid, but they're a little less fearsome on the road as they are at home (which is true for most teams). Just don't tell that to Marc Gasol, who is playing at such an elevated level right now that it's almost frightening. 

As visitors in Milwaukee, I can envision Memphis trading the lead with the tough-at-home Bucks most of the way. George Karl, IMO, remains an excellent coach; with him calling the shots, he should manage his team to victories other coaches might lose. Bottom line is that I don't see much to choose between these teams so early in the season.

Toronto @ Dallas: Poor Raptors. On paper at least, they're now more exciting to watch and definitely a better team than what hit the floor last year. Still, they're not yet fully cohesive and, unfortunately for them, rather fragile mentally. These guys are good enough to get leads but lack the confidence to keep them; they need to learn how to finish and not bend or panic when challenged. I like their new-found enthusiasm, but they need to toughen up and resolve not to yield when opponents play them hard.

The Dallas Mavericks are demonstrating they know how to play some damn good basketball. Nowitzkis' absence still hasn't hurt the team, and I don't figure it'll make a big difference at home to the Raptors. Toronto's record in Big D bespeaks of consistent failure. I see the Raps being game and perhaps throwing a scare into the Mavs. But in the end, I expect Dallas to win going away.

All for now. Your input is, as always, is appreciated.

Good luck to us all!  





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WriterGuy
WriterGuy
Quote Originally Posted by pinballwizard:

That's just the simple provincial sports lottery here in Canada. They used to offer the NBA wagering in the province of Ontario at one time as well but they canned it because of the Raptors. Wazsn't sorry to see it go as it was another one of the many ripoffs offered to the people by the sports lottery corporation.  
I don't disagree with you completely, as that jaundiced view is fairly common. Still, were I in Ontario, I'd want to play the NBA along with all other sports. Leastwise, I'd like to have the option.

I keep in mind that my losses go 100 percent towards the valuable social programs in this province. That tempers my disappointment when I take a tough loss. (Like, when an NBA tie concludes with a 6-point spread. I can take any other result with grace, but the idea of losing a wager by one freaken free throw is, I find, very, very difficult).

Good luck to us all! 
WriterGuy
WriterGuy
Only three games tonight and none appeal. Maybe tomorrow.
WriterGuy
WriterGuy
Some ugly results tonight. The combo ticket I bought went up in flames, although I did get the San Antonio win over Indiana. But by then, the two earlier contests weren't close at all and the ticket had already died a quick death. 

Dallas played a good game, seemingly having adjusted to life without Dirk (at least for the time being). Not much to say except they're a well-coached outfit and can give anyone a tough night most of the time. Still, they're going to suffer losses that may have been wins with the big German. 

From what I saw, Portland looked competitive. Unfortunately, the NBA plays for four quarters, and the Trailblazers only participated in the first three. A 12-point total output over the last 12 minutes did 'em in. Even Super-rook Lillard was misfiring. (This is not a criticism of Portland alone ... it happens to every team. The trick is in having both the desire and the personnel to keep quarter-long shut-downs such as these to a minimum).

Now, will somebody explain the New York Knicks to me? My early look at them didn't reveal much to support the idea they would be anywhere above .500. It's only three games, of course, but their blazing hot start is ... as Yul Brynner said in 'The King and I ... 'a puzzlement'. Back to watching these guys rather than placing wagers on them until I think they're a little more predictable.

Anyway, got 1 out of 3 right, which means no return on a 3-to-get-2 combo ticket. Not sure about tomorrow. Busy day, may not have the time for it.

Hope everyone did better than I did tonight.

Good luck to us all!   
WriterGuy
WriterGuy
Just to remove any doubt, when I post a game pick as a tie, it means whoever wins is immaterial. So long as they do it by 5 points or less, it's a tie.

All that said, I pulled the trigger on the two games noted above, both as ties. (New York @ Philly & Portland @ Dallas). Took San Antonio over Indiana as the third game.

Next time around, I'll try and post the correct teams when discussing them. It kinda makes a difference, don't it?   

Good luck to us all.  
WriterGuy
WriterGuy
Strike my comments on Utah @ Dallas. Doh! Should've been Portland. D'oh!

Hey ... old people make mistakes, too!   
WriterGuy
WriterGuy
I'm not sure I'll be purchasing a ticket tonight, but that's far from definite. I should explain that I don't have the "need" to do so at every opportunity. That's not a criticism on those who do, but I see that as a sure method of losing in the long run, if not the short. In which case, don't be surprised if a day (or several) pass with little or no picks from yours truly. Cool?

Again, please keep in mind that I'm playing by Sports Action rules. So when I lock in a pick, it may or may not line up with Vegas's posted odds. What could prove to be a winner or loser in my eyes may differ from the more traditional method(s) of betting.

IF I pull the trigger, I'll post the selections and, in most cases, the rationale behind them. For now, here's how I'm leaning:

New York @ Philadelphia: The Knicks have surprised me (and I know I'm far from alone). Excellent defense and cohesive team play were not predictable going into the season. Then again, their first two games were at home; it remains to be seen if they can play inspired basketball on the road.

Philly, on the other hand, looked solid in their home opener and not as much the second time around (on the road). Given the loss in NY, the revenge factor and the fact that the Bockers are not in the friendly confines of MSG, I'm giving the edge to the 76'ers by 2 or 3. Chances are that should I put a ticket together, this'll go as a tie.

Utah @ Dallas: A tough call, and another game that could be very close. The Mavs are missing Nowitzki, and while they're certainly good enough to win without him, it'll be increasingly difficult as time goes on and the team wears down.

Utah is very good; I like their personnel,  although that applies to them more so at home. On the road, they can usually keep up with the opposition (with certain exceptions). But the history of the Jazz is not nearly as impressive when they're the visitors. And that's the rub. From the Covers preview of the game, this sentence jumped off the screen and slapped me in the face: Dallas took two of three meetings last season, but the three contests were decided by a total of eight points and two of them went to overtime. 
Assuming that holds true this season, what else can I say but tie?

That's it for now, gentlemen. I'll be back later to confirm if I go ahead with these as plays. Ideally, I play a combo ticket of 3-games-to-get-2 or 4-games-to-get-2 as a hedge. So, I'm currently on the lookout for a third game to round things out. 

Of course, San Antonio winning at home (by 6 or more) looks like a no-brainer, but the return for that pick is so tiny as to keep the total payoff equally small. Still, playing conservatively may be the smart move to make. We shall see...

Good luck to us all!
WriterGuy
WriterGuy
Quote Originally Posted by ohnoahboi:

Who do you like for tonight's game bro?
This is probably too late for your liking ... just got in after a day away from the computer.

Judging from what I've seen of the Lakers to date, as well as the information available on the net, I'm thinkin' L.A. gets its first victory of the season. Detroit is capable of making the game interesting, so long as they're not intimidated by the elite names they'll be facing, building and/or the crowd.

Just a gut instinct, really. Should L.A. fall short again, you will hear shrieking from that city all the way to the cheering in Detroit.

Good luck to us all!  
WriterGuy
WriterGuy
Not much today that interests me. Still looking, but thus far I'm not feeling compelled to place any wagers. The obvious choices don't pay well enough to risk playing. However, I'll update here if anything changes.

Good luck to us all!