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pcollins
pcollins

Quote Originally Posted by pcollins:

It must have been a tough day to handicap yesterday because the top 10 players in the ultimate race finished 11 and 28 on their picks. I've always been tempted to follow the top players blindly but was afraid of a day like yesterday as the top 3 went 1 and 11. These are guys hitting 63% after 200 picks. Guess I'll keep on keepin on. Tenn+9 $300

I hear you...Nice to move up after a 2-2 day!

prowinbets
prowinbets

Quote Originally Posted by My6sen:

QUOTE Originally Posted by MoabBuster: BOL!!! I sorry to ask I new what team is CPSLO LOL

Cal Poly San Luis Obispo... The one I used to get hung up on was UMBC (Maryland Baltimore County)

theSleeper
theSleeper
NHL Betting / Matchup links / View Post

Now and then I confess I hit the 'Matchup' link for more insight when the pickings are slim. Can't get the links to open today. 

HOFDEG
HOFDEG
Best 'O'(Elliot) & 'D'(Lee)  players out for Dallas moves the line.
Mozart
Mozart
Verlander and Detroit's hot bats are home again facing a Philly team that's averaging under 4 RPG in their last 8. Cabrera is hitting .619 in his last 21 AB, and the few guys that have seen Hellickson have pasted him. Seems nobody on Phi has faced Verlander, and to a veteran like him that's icing on the cake. Howard is on an 0-16. JV is 25-4 in inter league lifetime. If JV is twice as good as Pelfrey last night, Philly scores 2. As for Hellickson, 2 things will happen... Wake up call on the road and he's blown out by the 4th, or he continues being pretty decent and goes 7 giving up 3-4. Experts love the over 8.5, me not so much but I like the Tigers by at least 2 runs so...Maybe 5-2
$$$$ Detroit Tigers -1.5 RL $$$$
Mozart
Mozart
Sometimes you see a favorite of fantasy BB show up in a statement game and you take a deeper look. Danny Salazar has been solid all year and super hot his last three sporting a 0.90 ERA. 2-0/ 1.46 in prior 2 starts vs BoSox. Porcello has double the ERA and not so good numbers last 3. Joe Kelly pitched a gem last night after the Tribe had won 5 straight. 6 Indians are above .300 lifetime vs RP. Most of the Sox haven't seen much of Salazar, but Jackie Jr. is 2-3 and I think will extend his streak without much help around him. If Salazar is a stopper, then maybe today will be proof as he throws blanks to  2 of the 4 BoSox on hitting streaks of 10+. Experts are on this, public not so much. Danny, thump your chest on the road here and make my value play work...Indians 6-2.
$$$$ Cleveland Indians +108 ML $$$$
bk1374
bk1374
The Yankees face an A's team with more players on the DL than any time in 40 yrs, including hot hitting J Reddick. Beltran getting hot, mismatch with Tanaka vs Manaea, current A's roster is 2-20 against Tanaka, and both the public & experts above 70% with NY. Yanks have been down a bit this year, but a 3 game streak and Sabathia's decent showing last night, Rodriguez near a return, all upbeat signs. Line has crept up. I could maybe find some reasons to ramble some more, but I'll simply say the Yankees win, maybe 5-2, and I only need the ML here so...
$$$$ New York Yankees -135 ML $$$$

Bubbaski27
Bubbaski27
I can't believe I'm writing up a dreaded O/U but here goes... Padres can't score, and our marine layer here in SD won't help. Shields is .232 [46 for 198] vs current SF roster. Shields & Samardija are combined under 6 ERA for the season, and last 3 are both even better. Can't find a hitter on Pads roster who has fared well vs JS, and a couple of Giants will do OK against the Pads so called stopper. Kemp is in a slump. So, is this just too damn obvious??? Probably, but the numbers make the odds in favor of a 2-0 Giants win. At an even 7, I'll play the conservative bet today and go with the under.
$$$$ San Francisco/San Diego under 7.0 -120 $$$$

Bubbaski27
Bubbaski27
Quote Originally Posted by newmi:

I'll repost this with write up in tomorrows thread, but my $-play for thursday is Örebro team total OVER 1.5 -102 against Gefle. If you can't get team total then the ML (3-way) at +105 or better is also ok. But I'm going with the team total.

For wednesday I've played Malmö at +126 earlier but the odds is now around +100 and probably more correct so.. I wouldn't take it at that price but I think Malmö have a great chance to get the three points today.

Both plays are Swedish Soccer - Allsvenskan. But the only $-play is Örebro TT O1.5, try and get it at atleast -110.

5 Dimes is over 2.5 -133! Too bad
Bubbaski27
Bubbaski27
OK, I could wait and write this up later with more info on possible suspensions but I think the numbers justify this now. C Archer, although not having a great season, has a nice history against the Blue Jay roster- .163 [34 for 209]. Conversely, Stroman not so much-304 [24 for 79].  Bautista, Donaldson, & Pillar contribute about a .200 avg if they play. Projecting under 8 runs and more likely +/- 6 makes this a game to be decided on pitching, with a TB edge. Hitting numbers and records are similar. At this minute I see a value play on Tampa and Archer's history with lines moving if there are suspensions, and a bounce back from last night. 7 K's by the Jays, 2 long balls by the Rays, speed on the bases, and the arrow points to Archer and revenge from a month ago, 4-2
$$$$ Tampa Bay Rays +135 ML $$$$
Bubbaski27
Bubbaski27
Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

Before I post the standings and weekly update I want to get a response from the regulars on two items:1.  I want to bring new people in to the thread but I also want to weed out the people who don't take the $$$$ Play seriously and put in time/research into their play.  The thread has over 100, I repeat, OVER 100 LOSSES due to HIT AND RUNS ( People who post a $$$$ lose once, twice, thrice and LEAVE AND NEVER RETURN).
The question, 1. Should a players first week count or should we use that as a trial by fire?
2.   Would anyone be opposed to moving this forum outside of Covers?  

1) Like the trial idea.
2) I just visited 'Community'>'Sports Picks'> 'Other' to look up possible college lacrosse. I notice only a few threads are very recent, meaning this forum attracts less attention... If that helps. Not exactly outside of covers, but loyal followers/contributors will get it.

Bubbaski27
Bubbaski27
Felix Hernandez comes into a Sunday game at home against a pretty poor Angels squad looking to sweep the Mariners after 6 straight loses. Huh? Just looking at numbers the 1st 2 games make no sense, yet here we are. Angels roster bats .230 vs Felix. Last 3 outings Santiago has a 6.46 ERA. Trout and Albert are likely to do something, but the rest against Seattle's stopper maybe not. Last 2 games combined for 29 runs. This pick is a little bit gut, as the public rides Seattle but the experts say no. Felix in May (11/13 wins), the ace, the stopper, the better team... LA loses 6-2 and its still a money line bet so...
Seattle Mariners -140 ML
Mozart
Mozart
I'm not big on commenting but this stands out... Rich Hill
Career vs Current Rays Roster AVG: 0.040 [1 for 25]
Brad Miller     SS         1     0   
Kevin Kiermaier     CF         2     0         
Steve Pearce     1B         3     0         
Hank Conger     C         2     0                        
Logan Forsythe     2B         3     0     
Tim Beckham     2B         2     0     
Steven Souza Jr.     RF         3     0
Evan Longoria     3B         4     0
only Jennings has a hit off him
Looks like a low scoring game as Odorizzi is OK against the A's
Bubbaski27
Bubbaski27
Latest legend Bartolo comes into LA to face the best, and proof is even though he has a decent record against the Dodgers statistically Kershaw and company are heavy fav's at -233. Sporting numbers like this vs current Mets roster- .147 [17 for 116], we can see why. He also allowed only 1 run in 16 innings vs NYM last season. Adrian and Chase own Colon while a few others might as well have seen him with handcuffs on. Met batters on the other hand have been handcuffed with only Flores having some success and he's out. Seems like LA plays to the level of the talent on the opposing team, 8-2 at home vs road teams above .600. Together the teams avg about 6 runs a game, no surprise. In the NL Worst, everyone is .500 or under. So what. Kershaw wins. I've been wrong a few times, once on a starting pitching change that killed me, twice by 1 total run, and the other couple I've blocked out ;)
So if the Dodgers win 2-0 (as I chuckle to myself with a frown cause I am a Padre fan) they cover...
LA Dodgers -1.5 RL 
Bubbaski27
Bubbaski27
AZ or Miami, AZ or Miami... Dog or Fav...compelling arguments for both. AZ on a 6 game winning streak. Miami could lose a series at home to the Brewers. Arrggghhh.
Here's an idea. Ryan Braun gets the Harper treatment and 3  intentional walks while the rest of the team stinks against lefties. Anderson continues his poor pitching and 11.48 ERA last 3 starts. Brewers overall are 0.197 [13 for 66] vs Chen. Ozuna, Stanton, & Prado get 14 TB between them and Chen learns home is where the heart is. So a couple hours after the D-Backs beat the Rockies 9-8, the Marlins win 9-2, making it likely I pull out a $2 bill for an AZ, Miami RL & O/8.5 you know what. But that's not me ;)
Miami Marlins -1.5 RL
Bubbaski27
Bubbaski27
Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

Last Week: 33-23-2    59%
Monday $$$$ Summary: 3-4-2
Wins: newmi, nfl_brosuf, theSleeper
Losses: adamtheadoshe, Ultimatetailer, kosmos4, ratbehr
Draws: lakerz, Matt2688
Tuesday $$$$ Summary: 7-4    64%
Wins: nfl_brosuf, bullmoose, ChizzleEnt23, Matt2688, Kilo17, TopFlightSports, brutaljoe
Losses: forty9ersfan80, PrimetimePro, ratbehr, lakerz
Draws: n/a
Wednesday $$$$ Summary: 7-7     50%
Wins: Matt2688, Unstoppable Force, ratbehr, MaxWagner, UltimateTailer, gman37, nfl_brosuf 
Losses: urrrk, Kilo17, chuckles394, sunny49, simmonds9568, Da_oracle, lakerz
Draws: n/a
Thursday $$$$ Summary:  5-3   63%
Wins: gman37, Matt2688, theSleeper, nfl_brosuf, 23skidoo
Losses: Kilo17, MaxWagner, chuckles394
Draws:  n/a
Friday $$$$ Summary:  6-2    75%
Wins: nfl_brosuf, Par_Laid, theSleeper, Brightsizelife, PimpNation, Bnyce21
Losses: Crushurbook, MaxWagner
Draws: n/a
Saturday $$$$ Summary: 3-1   75%
Wins: newmi, Bnyce21, sharpics
Losses: reeseta
Draws: n/a
Sunday $$$$ Summary:  2-2  50%
Wins: longshot4, theSleeper
Losses: Bnyce21, Brightsizelife
Draws: n/a
Note: I was very selective on the Friday, Saturday, Sunday plays so if your play is missing, it is most likely is due to an inadequate write-up.  

Tip of the hat to you and the time you put in. As the thread grows, if I can come up with ideas to simplify your stats keeping and encourage contributors to be concise I will speak out. I assume you are copying/pasting/adding to a program to keep ahead. A great program on Windows nobody knows about is called ATnotes (search it). Its free...Clean sticky notes you can color code. I keep short notes/links for betting.
Bubbaski27
Bubbaski27
A's & O's rubber game after a twin bill yesterday. Graveman bringing in a nice slump and career 7.59 ERA vs Baltimore while Tillman has a nice start to the season including 1.37 in the last 3 starts. O's are solid at home and the A's have a poor Sunday record in their last 10. Few A's batters have faced Tillman and with little success. Other than the bullpen, Orioles have an edge in nearly all stats categories. Reddick is the hottest hitter but sports an 0-7 lifetime vs Tillman. It doesn't look like the line will creep to -150 in enough places but if the Orioles win 7-2 it won't matter, so I not too reluctantly go with another RL at home.
Baltimore Orioles -1.5 RL
Bubbaski27
Bubbaski27
Matt Latos takes his nice start and 1.84 ERA at home against Nolasco's 4.05. Seems like the whole Sox roster has had success against Nolasco- .321 [45-140]. Twins are 3-7 last 10, 2-12 road. Few Twins have seen Latos, to the tune of [3-20]. Minnesota's team ERA is 1.7 runs higher. Batting looks like a push, White Sox slightly better fielding. With out too much more work, I think the -130 or so looks worth the risk, and the Sox win this one 6-1 at home.
Chicago White Sox -130 ML
Mozart
Mozart
BTW, Mozart... Helping out? If so appreciated as well as your comments. You've been around so you get it.
I like this thread and most of the input. What I don't like are the guys who don't follow the rules/requests at the top. Posting several comments and rambling on just make the thread that much harder to follow for busy people and even on a cell phone. So... Do the homework, provide the insight, and be concise when possible.
I am sure most of you guys with the positive kudos and good luck replies are great fans and people, just asking for a little discretion here. And when & if I fall below 58%, I promise I will get very discreet fast!

Mozart
Mozart
Nats at Cubs... Ross vs Hendricks... Bryce 1/23 slump...Rizzo & Bryant hot streak. Fun series.
Hendricks against the Nats roster looks like this- 0.147 [5 for 34]
Ross vs few Cubs he's seen - 0.357 [5 for 14], and is he really a 0.79 pitcher? Reality check time for him, and for me ;) ... Daniel Murphy and a few other guys won't be able to pick up the slack of their slumping leader, and it seems like tough timing for the Nats to face the best team in the early season. Cubs will make a statement at home. O/U at 7.5 tells me Vegas expects something good out of the pitching, and I think it really favors the Cubs here, to the tune of a 4-1 win.
Chicago Cubs -141 ML
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