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Thread Author canadiantruth Post Entries
SuperSlapem
SuperSlapem

I was all over this line as well. I sold a point and got charlotte -1 @ +111

Terrible spot for philly; Embiid has been dominating and the focal point of both their offense and defense. Without him, both ends should be disjointed. Coming off a big win against the top in the east (on the road no less) with this game sandwiched as gm 1 on a b2b with #4 Boston. 

I'm hoping Charlotte still has at least a spark left after a very disappointing road trip. This game is quite the "must win" to keep their playoff hopes alive. 

Good luck

canadiantruth
canadiantruth

ytd 28-22

yesterday 0-1

Lakers/sac played out like I thought (early points, slower second half and 4th) but they just hit a couple too many shots. 

Today's play;

memphis +4@ houston (1.25u, -105)

Without chris paul and eric gordon, houson is going to have a really tough time getting points against an exceptionally stingy memphis defense. The only factor is whether Harden gets every whistle as he is prone to on certain nights. If you can, watch the first few mins and see where the whistle is before you play this. 


Good luck, 
CT
clover

canadiantruth
canadiantruth

28-21

last day 1-0

Today's play;

Sac @ lakers UNDER 231 (1.25u, +111)

Close proximity play. I've rehashed my reasoning 100x, so just posting today. 

Good luck, 

CT

clover

mp0815738
mp0815738

If you can't practice sound money management, you shouldn't be gambling. 

I treat this as investments. I pull initial investments and profits. If the market is going south (losing streak), I stop or pull all my capital. 

Don't be a gambler, be a sports investor. Or don't play with anything you care about, because will likely lose. 

canadiantruth
canadiantruth

This line moved 5 base points to under 221, -105. I suspect it will sit here all day. As it moved with me, I won't be adding any more units. 

canadiantruth
canadiantruth

ytd 27-21

yesterday 1-0

3-0-1 run, on the right side of some close games. 

Today's play;
bk @ charlotte UNDER 221 (1.25u, +100)

I absolutely love home and homes. It's such an interesting dynamic, watching players grind it out for 2 games in a row. Last game, ignoring the OT's, the total was at 228, that was after a 37-35 4th q. They shot 48 and 44% from three, and the pace was nearing frantic at points. It's unlikely to happen again. You know how player x watched opposing player y hit 3 three's from the corner? Yeah, player x is going to be waiting at the corner this game. Kemba went right 5 times, and left zero? Harris and Russell noticed that too. One of my favourite plays. If this line moves up, I"ll bite for another 1/4 or even 1/2. 

Good luck, 

CT

clover

YoungStunna
YoungStunna

I love this theory. I've read of similar things in football, where (not exact numbers) but 65% of the time an underdog covers a spread, they win outright. I'd think there are similar trends in basketball...I'll dig a bit when I have days off. 

I'm using pinnaclesports for the best line 80% of the time. Sportsinteraction 18% of the time and bet365 2% of the time. Their vigorish is high (10pts on spreads/totals, 15pts on most alternate lines and jumps to 18pts to 20pts on a lot of props or live bets).  I've tried 5dimes before because they have some of the best lines, but I hate their platform.  It sucks that Americans can't use online books easily. 

YoungStunna
YoungStunna

A man after my own heart. 

I've been at this a long time and I sell points CONSTANTLY.  I like where you're going with the short dogs @ +2/+3, I'd be more skeptical at the 4 and 5 range. Keep in mind a "system" like this will be much more profitable at the beginning of the season when lines are looser and late in the season when motivation factors are much more pronounced. This time of year tends to be pretty tight lines. 

Another thing to look at is getting a book with a) better lines, b) giving good odds on selling a single point. You are selling 5 points on the above spread example, there is good profit to be made in selling 2 or 3. I have 3 books that I use and you'd be amazed at the differences in the vig on selling points. What I'm driving at is; you are selling 5 for .72, but if you shop books, you can probably sell 4 for .7, or 5 for .8. 

A bit rambly on my points, but it boils down to; selling points can be very profitable, but absolutely not for beginners

canadiantruth
canadiantruth

26-21

yesterday 1-0-1 dropping the push from my record

Good hit on the total, a bit lucky. Pushed on dallas because I sold a full point. As stated before, it makes sense for me to do it anyway.

Today's play;

lakers @ sac OVER 230 (1.25u, -101)

This one should be a track meet. Lakers without lebron moved the ball well last game and chucked shots. They were running everywhere they could, and against a hapless sacramento defense, I think this game ends around 240. 125-115 for sacramento. 

Good luck,
clover

canadiantruth
canadiantruth

adding: 

pelicans @ dallas -3 (1.25u, +111)

Look, I get that dallas is in the middle of big losing streak, but the thing to take of is how competitive they were in those games. These weren't close games against bottom dwellers, they were close losses, mostly on the road against the tops of west. The pelicans on the other hand, have had some questionable effort nights in there. I love that the pelicans have just been horrible on the road too and the mavs a different beast at home. 

Close game, but dallas pulls away to win by 10. 


 

canadiantruth
canadiantruth

ytd 25-21

yesterday 1-0

Right side of the lakers pick, if not for the reasons I thought. I'll take the W.

Todays' play;

char @ bk OVER 221 (1u, +106)
These are two fast moving offense's,and BK isn't afraid to chuck 3's. This will come down to whether these teams hit at a decent clip or brick city after the break. I had this total posted at about 2.5 pts low, so I sold a point to 221 for added value. 

Good luck, 

CT

clover

 

SuperSlapem
SuperSlapem

I'll chime in here, as a bit of a student of capping sports. 

What you're describing above is capping. The difference between you and most on this site is that most people just choose one or two angles (refs, rest, team trending up or down, injuries, etc) and go on that. Worse, many just go off gut instinct or "harden is better than anyone on utah, so I'll pick houston" which is obviously a losing proposition long term. More research is always better, but there are limits.

The main issue with your system is time. To actually look at all of these angles, compile them in sort of ranking system, scour the internet for articles and still watch highlights of each game? Man, that's like an hour or per game.

The other thing that I wouldn't love about this is that, in essence, you are still just making a gut pick. Sure, it's much, much more informed than most people's gut pick, but a horse is still a horse, even if it's wearing a hat. You will ALWAYS find angles to pick one side or the other, which do you choose and ignore. 

I could talk about this for days, but I think you can see what I'm driving at here. 

Good luck, I'll definitely keep reading this thread to see where it goes. 

canadiantruth
canadiantruth

ytd 24-21

last day 0-1

Really limiting my plays until I turn this around. Another loss or two and I might take weeks/months off. 

Today's play;
lakers +9 @ gstate (1u, -105)

Lebron has played gstate the last few years on xmas and every game has been close. There are a number or reasons for this, such as Lebron stepping up on a bigger stage, quality teams that he's been on, etc, but one that I think may be over looked is that the NBA is minorly rigged. I'm not a conspiracy guy, but to watch NBA games and say with a straight face that the refs don't push games certain directions, would be impossible. I'm not saying the lakers pull this out, but I do think that the refs will give a few momentum shifting calls to at least keep this game respectable. 

Good luck, 
CT

clover

 

canadiantruth
canadiantruth

ytd 24-20

yesterday 1-0

I was on the right side! Clippers covered by a point, I was scared at the end.

Today's play;

Memphis moneyline @ Sacramento (1u, +117)
This feels like a good game. Memphis is arguably the best defensive team in the league and sacramento has been one of the top offensive teams. Sac has been struggling the last few games on offense and I think memphis will take full advantage of that, absolutely shutting them down. 
Veteran defensive team desperate for a win against a team with the same record, whom they will possibly be fighting for playoff positon with. I"ll take the veteran team anytime. 

Good luck, 
CT

moneyeyes

canadiantruth
canadiantruth

ytd 23-20
last day 0-2

 

It will be a Christmas miracle if I actually hit a game. 2-9 last 11. 

Today's play;
dallas @ clippers -3 (1u, -108)

Basically throwin darts here. an_roll_laugh 
Not really, but it sure feels like it sometimes. 

Good luck, 

CT

canadiantruth
canadiantruth

adding;
Washington -3 @ Atlanta (1.25u, +107)

Wizards are getting Ariza for this game. Usually I'd try to shy away from new players entering the lineup, but Ariza is a veteran. To me, he is exactly what the wizards need, an outside presence to keep beal and wall focused. This is also somewhat of a gut feeling play, which I rarely play, but have been exceptionally profitable over the years. 
I haven't had a 1.25u play in a week or so, but really like the wizards to beat up atlanta early and often tonight.


canadiantruth
canadiantruth

ytd 23-18

yesterday 0-1

Still struggling to find my footing on a 5-9 stretch. I'm still comfortable with my picks, but will be shying away from totals. Went through my spreadsheet and I am 9-16 on totals and 14-2 on sides. Reaffirming the importance of proper record keeping.

Today's play;
Dallas moneyline @ denver (1u, +175)
I watched denver play the raptors the other night, start to finish. I can tell you that the injuries are seriously mounting up and if it wasn't for, a- the raptors missing 4 rotation peices as well (including their 2 main point guards) and b- Jocic playing out of his mind, denver had no business winning that game. I swear,  you could see them getting worn down by the minute after beating memphis, okc at home as well. By all accounts Dallas should have nowitzki in and Barea back, and I expect them to be at least a bit hungry after losing to Phoenix and then a bad one to Sacramento at home. Let down for Denver, motivation edge to Dallas, tough to win at mile high but I think dallas has this wrapped up. Good value on moneyline. 

Good luck, 

CT

moneyeyes

canadiantruth
canadiantruth

Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:

^^^ i assume a ton of "sharp" old timers got their clocks cleaned yesterday if they were betting the Nets Hawks game ingame chasing the live odds under at every whistle, with the thinking that pace simply couldnt continue...well not only did it, but the refs called every possible foul they could early and often...for a game to land over 270 is a disgrace to the sport in my opinion.

And this is my issue. I wasn't live betting, but even just watching that score I was blown away that it NEVER slowed down. 

Vegas must be getting killed though too?  I mean, if you are an over better, you could sell 10 points on every game and make a KILLING. Hmm....that might be a strategy. I'll do some back testing today. 

canadiantruth
canadiantruth

ytd 23-17
yesterday 0-1

This discussion was started yesterday by serge82 and miracling2...the NBA is changing quickly. The hand checking rules (obviously), but now even more so with the expectation of a free path - if you impede the offensive player in anyway (even if those feet are moving) it is often called as a defensive foul. It's a foul if a player closes out too hard and don't give the shooter "enough" space to land. It's a foul  if you catch their legs at all (even though many players kick them out and forward on a three point attempt).  Don't get me started on moving screens.  They've even started calling more fouls on aggressive rebounding. 

The question is, "is there any space for old school cappers like me?". I play unders in important games. I play unders on afternoon games. I play unders in a host of other scenarios, and they just aren't hitting. As serge pointed out, these aren't .5 or 1.5 points off as they used to be, these totals are often sailing by 10, 15, 20, hell, 30 points or more. If you have any thoughts, they are appreciated. In the meantime, I'll try to change my capping style and focus on good over spots and spreads. Don't be a relic. 

Today's play;

Utah @ houston OVER 213 (1u, +109)
These guys played on the 6th and hit 209 pts. That game saw both teams shoot 25% or less from 3. The pace was easily there, houston just hit no shots and utah minimal 3's. I don't think the pace will be there again, but in this new NBA, the 3's will be. 

Good luck, 

CT

clovermoneybagclover

canadiantruth
canadiantruth

ytd 23-16

yesterday 1-0

I was on the right side of a close game for the first time since dec 2nd. This often means the tides have turned, but will keep units low for another day or two.

Today's play;

Atlanta @ brooklyn UNDER 227 (1u, -107)

The selective sunday afternoon under rule is 4-2 for me this season, getting very close to a blind play. In this game, all signs point to brooklyn putting up 120. I just don't think atlanta scrapes together 100. Lethargic early legs withone quarter of 24-18 should keep this lower than 227.

Good luck,

CT

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