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GENERALWIZDOM
GENERALWIZDOM
Quote Originally Posted by GENERALWIZDOM:

Im having a really hard time getting excited about this game. If Wentz was playing, we would have the two best teams and a legit show... Eagles were best team all year in my opinion.... And having Blount and Ajayi to run at Pats is gonna help them a lot... The defense can pressure brady.... But I have a hard time seeing an upset.

 

Think of the weirdness an Eagles win creates... Nick Foles wins SuperBowl... Then what? You trade him? He goes to bench? Wentz career story looks different if he's not the guy to deliver philly's first superbowl, right? Far easier to sell the "If they had Wentz" story in a eagles loss..... 

The weird thing is... Im more excited about what happens AFTER the game than the game itself. Win or lose, WHAT HAPPENS TO PATS? Does Belichek leave? Does he retire? Does Brady come back? Im honestly more interested in the answers to these questions than who wins the game.....

 

This one and the NCAA championship both kind of bizarre disappointing matchups in terms of broad interest.  I'm more interested in the commercials and halftime show for the first time since the Rex Grossman Bears played road kill to the Colts and Prince rocked the halftime show like nobody ever has.


LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper

In watching both conference championships the big thing I would note is I thought both the Patriots and Vikings did not match the intensity of the Jaguars and Eagles.  In the case of the Vikings think it had to do with an emotional win and a road game for a franchise iffy on the road.  With the Patriots think like the Steelers before them were not ready for what the Jaguars brought.

The other item is the Eagles seemed to change their play calling mix about halfway through the Falcon game to run pass options that Foles is more comfortable with.  That continued into the Viking game with great success.  Mike Zimmer probably had fifteen pass plays similar to what the Vikings saw given RPO was only prominent in the second half of the Falcon game.  Now wondering if with 1.5 games of tape if Bill Belichek will have enough information to shut it down.  Often new players and scheme have success for a stretch due to teams not knowing how to scheme.  Neither the Falcons or Vikings defended RPO well so not a lot of tape on stopping the Foles/Eagles approach.  I had figured Zimmer could stop it given his track record against non HOF QBs and was wrong and lost money on that assumption.  Is there enough out there for the Pats who have rushed the QB well with 4 to stop it or no?

LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper

Zimmer and Belichick are on a collision course to meet in the bowl, and it could be one of the best of the decades with the two top coaches in the league going head to head.


Think it would be a lot like Patriots/Seahawks classic.  Brady going against a secondary hat doesn't give cheap first downs away.  Brees is probably the only other guy that can just straight up gun sling and he had to work really hard to score points.  Think Pats/Vikings would look a lot like VIkings/NO.

justliketoplay
justliketoplay

Philly still won in spite of Foles versus because of him.  They had 15 points, Foles had the lowest QBR of any QB to play last week worsting Ryan in a race to incompetence.  His best play was a pass off an Atlanta defenders knee that turned into 25 yards on the deflection.  Those two were basically playing the 5/6 game while Saints/Vikings was the NFC 1/2 game.

bigdaddy87
bigdaddy87
It's great analysis like Tom Brady can't win big games that has him 15-1.
MNFLoser
MNFLoser

Thus far 7-2 in the postseason on bets.  Had all dogs in wild card round to go 4-0.  Then had Titans, Eagles, Jags, and Vikings in second round along with Saints TT under 22 to go 3-2.

What I have cooking this week:

Jags +9.5

Vikings -3

2-team tease Patriots -1.5 and Eagles +9.5

Eagles Team Total under 18.5

LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper

At least do some fact checking:


close vikings you got lucky vs saints because they lost to TB again

and no team ever won a superbowl who lost to TB hence why falcons lost it last year


In 2009 the Saints lost to TB and won the Superbowl.  Not sure of other times but, figured start with NFC South teams and it took one check of 2009 to prove this sweet, irrelevant factoid wrong.


LeagueCapper
LeagueCapper

Quote Originally Posted by zebrakiller:

sorry league capper those vikings do not scare  us 1 bit they aint going to stop the eagles offense or score against our defense which is #2 in points allowed

NO team ever played in it's own stadium in the superbowl

close vikings you got lucky vs saints because they lost to TB again

and no team ever won a superbowl who lost to TB hence why falcons lost it last year


I'm taking Eagles in a 50 -50 game as per consensus

this DOG has teeth baby


Stop the Eagles offense?  Three crappy defenses in Falcons, Raiders, and Cowgirls all stopped the Eagles offense.  They have the worst QBR rated quarter back of any QB that attempted over 100 passes this year.  He can't complete a pass over five yards and against the best man to man pass D in the league he won't complete many 5 yarders.  Then they have a rushing attack averaging 3 yards per carry against the number one defense in football.  The high flying Saints rushing attack with a first ballot HOF QB and two better RBs couldn't run so not sure how a team that will crowd the line against a guy that can't complete a 10 yard pass will move the ball at all.


gambleholic63
gambleholic63
It actually wouldn't be shocking if they got rid of this rule for playoff games.  This was the first non-overtime walk off TD so in forty years it happened once but, during the regular season they make them go out there as total points for and against are tiebreakers.  During the playoffs it means absolutely nothing to the team. 
MushKing
MushKing
NFL Betting / Eagles ML +40 / View Post
Quote Originally Posted by MushKing:


What does having Wentz in the lineup have anything to do with the Eagles dominant home defensive numbers?

The defensive numbers are just terrible competition.  Again Eagles home record against teams that finished 13-43 on the road.   Against teams with a winning record they are 1-1 at home averaging 7.5 points per game.  In addition, they allowed over 20 points three times at home.  Vikings hadn't allowed more than 20 in any home game until the Saints put up 24 Sunday.  Think you can pass on the Eagles corners and don't think Foles can pass at all against any respectable D.  So think it ends up something like 21-10.

MushKing
MushKing
NFL Betting / Eagles ML +40 / View Post

Eagles are 1-1 at home against teams with a winning record lost to Dallas and beat Atlanta.  Negative scoring differential and average 7.5 points per game. 

MushKing
MushKing
NFL Betting / Eagles ML +40 / View Post

All the "differential" comes from one game.  Vikings in game 2 were blown out at Pittsburgh when Bradford thirty minutes before the game decided he couldn't go and Keenum was thrown in with little to no prep Vikings lost 26-9. 

The one other loss was a stretch of 4 out of 5 on the road when they won @ Washington,  home to Rams, @ Detroit, @ Atlanta, and then played their worst game of the year at Carolina and still were tied with two minutes left.  This isn't 4 of five on the road situation or a Sam Bradford game plan.

MushKing
MushKing
NFL Betting / Eagles ML +40 / View Post

"Eagles Home Dominance"

Teams they beat this season at home were a combined 13-43 on the road and almost all those wins were with the number two QBR guy at the helm in Wentz.  Final QBR for those with enough attempts was 1- Wentz 75 2-Keenum 70

Foles w a QBR of 28 although not enough attempts comes in behind Kizer, Trubisky, Hundley, Savage, Brisset, CJ Beathard, Gabbert.  So with a dramatically better QB at the helm they beat a bunch of terrible teams that combined on average to win 1.8 games on the game this year.

MushKing
MushKing
NFL Betting / Eagles ML +40 / View Post

Quote Originally Posted by zebrakiller:

plus the vikes are playing down the effect of chance to play at home in the superbowl

really you should hear them talking it down.

Aint gonnna happen vikes sorry the football God will mae sure you lose i trust Keenum to fuggg  up final minutes with the ball and 1 minute left on clock.

Just like Matty Ryan did

lol betting on the superbowl loser favored on the road lmao



Keenum had two game winning drives against NO under 2 minutes.  Probably more than Matt Ryan and Nick Foles combined this year he did in one game.

spotslife1
spotslife1

But, both teams are 14-3 so they usually win and odds go up when they score first.  Saints didn't score until 1 minute left in third and almost won because they are much better than average opponent.  Falcons scored first and lost to Philly.

Most games are against crap teams as you take the other side of this and Vikings were 7-3 when they were scored on first.

bunny24
bunny24

Just so that I'm clear Minnesota beat Atlanta once and New Orleans twice this year but, both teams are better?

Also, pretty sure Stephon Diggs wiped the smirk away.

spotslife1
spotslife1

The only thing that bothers me about doing anything large with the Jaguars is think the numbers are skewed.  AFC South QBs, the mess in Houston other than Watson weeks, whatever Indy was doing, and Mariotta.  These guys all suck.


Then they played AFC Central which has crap QBs except for Big Ben.  Blaine Gabbert, Garrapolo, Wilson, etc. all lit them up.  So worry the numbers are skewed as very few games against actual NFL QBs.  I'm taking them to cover as think both O-Line and D 7 are physical enough to keep it close but, not going large as do think their success is largely skewed.


LockSmith_Larry
LockSmith_Larry

Only Brees, Cousins, Big Ben, and Stafford had any success this year passing the ball against the Vikings (this counts as example Counsins 26-45 for 327 1-1 in a loss as successful).  Every other quarterback did essentially nothing.  Just don't have Foles operating at the Brees, Cousins, Stafford level right now. 

Vikings allowing 24% conversions on 3rd down and Eagles under Foles converting 23% on third down.  Just don't see how Eagles will extend drives.  Vikings rush D did have off game against Carolina so maybe they lay an egg against the run but, short of that think Eagles do pretty close to nothing on offense.

LockSmith_Larry
LockSmith_Larry

Those are the two I'm on.  Took all dawgs first round to go 4-0 then had Jags, Titans, Vikings, and Eagles to go 3-1 in round 2.  Missed on Saints TT under 21.5.  So 7-2 in post season and now have Vikings -120 @ -3 and Jags +9.5.

My guess is something like Vikings 21-10 and Pats 24-17.

t6rider
t6rider
Quote Originally Posted by JewishIce21:

Eagles are 3.5 point underdogs at home after being 3 point underdogs and using that as momentum the entire week. Not sure anything in these playoffs is a lock.  They got lucky as hell to win that game due to a safety closing his eyes and trying to make a hit stick madden play.  Eagles are going to win this game, or they are going to lose by 3. I love the hook in a defensive game like that.  Give me the Iggles all day. Momentum doesn't mean anything when you have to go play outside in Philadelphia in 30-40 degree weather against a much better defense than the Saints who shut them down in the second half. 

 


Supposed to be 50 degrees so weather not an issue. Keenum vs Foles is a pretty easy decision as Keenum was #2 rated QBR for 2017 behind only Watson.  Foles had one good game against the Giants and the rest he's looked awful. Name one play where either the Falcons or Eagles looked like a Superbowl team on offense? That was like watching preseason football.

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