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fatroll07

fatroll07
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I don't quite believe FSU is playing poorly but rather playing down to their competition. I also believe FSU hasn't had quite the same motivation to start games which is why they have been trailing in almost every game they have played this year. Halftime comes and they completely shutdown the run and dominate the second half. This wasn't a single occurrence but rather a weekly habit. FSU played very good football vs georgia tech but with a week to prepare for the triple option it was no easy feat. Justin Thomas is also a player and monster athlete. FSU tried to recruit him over winston but luckily they got winston. On top of the triple option FSU was coming into the georgia tech game off of some very physical opponents. Miami Boston College and Florida play power football. 
People can say FSU played nobody but ask USC in the soft 12 how it was playing a physical Boston College team. Louisville has pro talent especially in the trenches along with Clemson. The ACC was actually slightly underrated and play some diverse styles of football. 
The only real fear of Oregon is Mariota because he will be running like a mad man with the championship game on the line. The game is in Pasadena which I believe is on real grass which will slow him down a bit. I personally don't think Oregon is any faster then FSU and definitely not as talented. 
Capt Douche I don't think you understand FSU and Miami is one of the greatest rivalries in College Football. Absolute hatred. Miami came into that game playing its best football and left it all on the field. In fact after the deflating loss to FSU they haven't been able to rebound.
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Wahoo I think people forget what Winston went through this year with off the field issues. Of course he brought those issues upon himself but where most players finish a game and get ready for the next he has had to deal with off field issues on a weekly basis. He finished his last school meeting and there is nothing left but moving forward. I don't think there is a person in the world who wouldn't be worn down from the constant attacks he has dealt with and there is little to no doubt it has effected his play this year. The run game is finally efficient with D. Cook and this is the first time in 2 years FSU is an underdog. People also forget how hard it can be to keep players motivated and attentive when you haven't lost for 2 years. Sometimes coaches don't mind a loss so that you get the taste of it. What better for FSU then being a 10 point underdog. I was worried about FSU drawing Oregon but after watching Oregon play Arizona I think they are undersized and not as talented as fsu. Now of course FSU struggles with dual threat Qb's like Mariota so Oregon will score a lot of points but in a tight game give me Winston a lllllll day. Plus the run game is going to make a big different for fsu. Huge play on FSU plus 10 and smaller play on the money line. Winston can go toe to toe with Mariota
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fatroll07 replied to Belmont Card 06/07/14
in Horse Racing
norumbega paid nice!
3
fatroll07 created a topic Belmont Card 06/07/14
in Horse Racing
Good Luck today everyone. Awesome card of racing. Here is what I like in the races.

Race 2
Miscconnect #5 4-1 ML. This horse obviously loves Belmont park and is racing second off the layoff for Pletcher. I think we see improvement.
Also Tri 3/5,6,7/4,5,6,7 
3 has a shot first time lasix at 20-1 ml

Race 3
Don't really like the race. Small play on #8 Norumbega 6-1 ml

Race 4
Small play on Ben's Cat WPS #8 5-2 ml

Race 5
Very good race here. Again I like Pletcher second off the bench. Havana has great Belmont form and ran some big numbers as a 2 year old. 6-1 ml. WPS and ex box with #11 

Race 6
I think My Miss Sophia is a stand out and 1-1 is fair value. Will key her on top of 8/9,6,7

RAce 7
Not much value in this race with the top 3 towering over the field. Trying to pick which one is the best depends on the track and if they have it speedy fast for chrome. I do think Sylmar is primed to run an absolute monster race. Her last was the fastest she has ever run. I think they have her ready to fire huge. 
9/5 Princess of Sylmar straight exacta over beholder and key over hatches, sylmar and belle

Race 8
Think the 10 is the best horse in race at 3-1. Will 4 horse box 2,5,9,10

Race 9
Good luck with this one. Palace Malice is an absolute monster but is carrying 124 pounds and drew the rail. He could still win but I don't feel comfortable singling him but I have trouble figuring out who will beat him. I think I'll use clearly now, golden cents,, invasion with palace

Rae 10
Coin flip

Race 11
I am on Wicked Strong if he can keep it all together. Horse loses it almost every race during post parade. If he can keep it together I think he is bred for the distance and will win. I will box exacta with Cali Chrome just so I can still root for a triple crown. I will tribox with Medal Count and WPS if the odds are right..

Win some cash

3
My tickets look identical to yours. I will wait until last 5-10 minutes to see how Wicked Strong is doing. Horse is a complete head case.
Good Luck
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Pletcher coming off top effort=bounce
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Ideally if you like him you, just keep an eye on the daily double pool and see who you can get in the derby at better odds!
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fatroll07 replied to Churchill Race 9
in Horse Racing
beer= Beyer
4
fatroll07 created a topic Churchill Race 9
in Horse Racing
We got a highway in kentucky. 

$50 wps #10 Delaunay ML 9-2
4-4 at churchill. Coming off a better performance then the beer says. 
$5 ex box 2,3,8

Good luck kids
4
My problem with samraat is that he had an ideal trip in last and wasn't good enough. His style should be great but is he good enough?
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They just ran 1-2 around the track and fonished 1-2. There is a bias. It can 100% change tomorrow
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Vet I will be betting around Chrome. He doesn't have to win for me to win. I just need him in top 3. I will be following how the track is playing etc.

The longer shots i am using in exotics will be medal count, tapiture, intense holiday.
I will use Danza, Wicked Strong most likely.

Thorograph and many are on Vicar but he is a VERY little horse. He was really shortening stride in last and even though he is has huge thoro numbers. I am tossing him

If track is playing how it is today and pletcher continues to underwhelm there is no way I will play two of his horses.

Ill be back tomorrow. How about you Vet?
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fatroll07 created a topic Kentucky Oak and early recap
in Horse Racing
Pletcher's horses are running like shit. Heavy testing does him in

Horses with success over the course (past) are running big at a price.

You need to be near the front end to have a shot. Dead closers=no shot so far. Must be in lead by the stretch.

Ill hammer Untapable here and play her in doubles and pick 3 tomorrow.
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fatroll07 replied to Hoppertunity
in Horse Racing
Another horse I would have likely faded. With Constitution and hoppertunity out looks like Californa will be heavy favorite
7
No horse will be less then 2-1 in the derby. I agree with Bull @3-1 but with the new takeouts at Churchill that could lead to closer to 5-2. I also have noticed most of the sharp and thorograph players do not like Chrome so maybe the big money will go on other horses. If you like him you bet him. Don't ever try to beat the horse you think is going to win because winning is winning. Just back yourself with exotics
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fatroll07 replied to Derby since 2003
in Horse Racing
Angry something like 85% of all derby winners have run a 100 beyer sometime in their career. The reason the double 105 beyer is so powerful is because it wasn't a fluke (ie bellamy road) and most likely sustainable.
It's funny the wise guy horse is going to be Hopportunity(my estimation 6-1) who absolutely got crushed by california in last. Not that he won't run decent but 6-1 or 7-1 is tooo low. They say he was not fully cranked in last but that is a total joke. How is a horse that ran his top figure and is overraced coming off only a 3 week rest not fully cranked? He was ridden around the final turn and was not gaining on Chrome. Chrome was never truly ridden either and was visually pulled up before the finish line. Hopp caught california during gallop out but he was not under physical restraint the way chrome was. As soon as Chrome caught his eye he caught back up with Hopp.

I typically will not disregard the horse with the top last beyer but it also doesn't mean he is a play. Many other factors come into play
a) did the horse get a top beyer getting loose on the lead?
ie Vicar's in Trouble (not saying he has top beyer just example)
b) if he was loose on lead how did he finish up
ie Vicar finished up slower then 13 seconds getting loose on the lead with a slow/average pace. (bad sign)
c) Was the beyer 10-15 points higher then his previous last beyer?
ie Bellamy road (bounce factor)?

A lot of these horses are just young and improving so I find bounces with 3 year olds to be less likely.
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fatroll07 replied to Derby since 2003
in Horse Racing
Nice work guys.. Let me know if you guys find anyone else.........
2003 Empire Maker 2nd (ran fastest thoro figure in derby but wide wide)
2004 Smarty Jones 1st
2008 Big Brown 1st
2014 California Chrome

I follow thorograph numbers and Beyers very closely but when it comes to the derby... Beyers don't lie
14
fatroll07 created a topic Derby since 2003
in Horse Racing
Since 2003 only 4 horses that I could find have run a 105 beyer or better in the two starts b4 the derby. Who are they and how did they do in derby? California chrome is one of four so name other three
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Don't mean to be captain obvious but California chrome is probably the most impressive horse I have seen coming into the derby since big brown without all the foot problems. There is no doubt my win bet and all my exotics will be made around him wps. He has a beautiful stride and finishes like a freight train straight as an arrow. It's a beautiful thing to watch. The horse he decimated is a lot of people's second selection in the derby. A few longer shots.
1) Cairo prince- most of the focus from Florida is from constitution and rightfully so. But when I hear people say that he was fighting his jockey and still won etc I think to myself do you really think that will change in a 20 horse field? Plus pletcher her is fade material on derby day where they have some of the toughest regulations in place. 
Cairo made a monster move coming from 3-4 lengths back and went 3-4 wide on a track that is impossible to close on. He also came into the race on an 8-9 week layoff and I think he was a little short. I like his breeding better then constitution, his trainer, and his experience at a better price.
2) General a rod- keep losing money on this horse but his breeding screams distance. He ran a decent trip over cd surface. His first race he came from off the pace and won going away. Word is that they are tinkering with blinkers to try and get him to relax like he did in race 1
3) wicked strong- ran a monster after getting off the highway at GP
4) danza- as much as I don't like pletcher on derby day its hard to interpret that last race. He ran beautifully. Will he bounce? Probably but he may go off at 15-1 and constitution may be 6-1

More to come when I have some more data
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fatroll07 created a topic Breeder's Cup
in Horse Racing
Race 5
I like the 12 at a decent price. I think the #2 will take a lot of money Pletcher, I think the 7 will also take big money off the big last effort but that was on a very wet turf.

I think the 12 is still improving, has a win over the local surface.
exacta over the 2

Race 6
Marathon is trash as always and a bad race to bet but I can't resist
#10 is the logical winner. If he runs back to his last he will win no problem. They say he looks fantastic on the track. The 6 is consistent as they come and should be good enough for second. 4 straight 2's on the graph

Race 7
Bobby Kitten could truly be a single. If I play any horizontals i will single him. Ramsey will make a big wager on his horse.
Of the Euro's I would go with 2 just because he has two races turning left compared with the rest of the horses who have no experience. They say outstrip is very small but looks great on the track.
tri key 5/2,4,3

Race 8
Toughest race on the card. I can make a case for almost every horse in the race. I am going to toss Zano (no value) and also has ran exactly one race fast enough to beat this bunch 3-1 is a joke. Long odds I like the 4 but I am not sure he will continue to improve. I think Goldencents but drew a terrible post and I would hate to see him caught wide but he is the most logical winner. 2 for 4 at the track, took the blinkers off and seems more rateable. Coming in with the biggest number last out.
My pick 3's and 4's will use 4,5,11,12

I'll be back with the last 2 races
2

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