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vanzack

vanzack
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vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer
Quote Originally Posted by Circus_Bettor:

"Peru to advance +185 (1 unit) Even matchup here. Give me the price. " Congrats on the win, but you could not have been more off the mark with the notion they are "evenly matched." Peru did everything they wanted to, scored early, dominated defensively, assurance goals, frustrate their opponents at midfield and in the box. Chile and Peru were not "evenly matched." Agree with you that Peru keeps this close. They will be playing for the win, however, not for a close call. Miracles do happen. Sunday could not come soon enough.

Look pal.  I get what you are saying.  The difference is - I said it BEFORE the game about a +185 underdog, you are saying it AFTER.

And you are telling me that I picked the right side (remember - a +185 dog), but didnt pick them with enough enthusiasm.  Jeesh.  You really cant win around here at covers.  It is never good enough.

90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

Record (W/L):  11.5 - 7

25.96 units up 
14.21 units down


FINAL:

Peru +1.5 -115 (2 units) - Just think Peru keeps this close.  


90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

Record (W/L):  10.5 - 7

23.96 units up 
14.21 units down


Chile / Argentina over 2.5 -120 (2 units) - Usual 3rd place over bet here.  


FINAL:

Peru +1.5 -115 (2 units) - Just think Peru keeps this close.  


Great tournament no matter what.  No more football for another 6 weeks or so.

GL

90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

Record (W/L):  9.5 - 7

21.11 units up 
14.21 units down

 

Seminfinals:

Brazil / Argentina over 2 -125 (2 units) - really could see some goals here.  Both teams set up similarly, with issues at the back and plenty of creative force up front.  Watch for Brazil to overplay the right side and dominate with width.  I would like to take Brazil here - but feel like the over is a better wager.  Brazil 3-1

Peru +.5 -105 (1 unit)
Peru to advance +185 (1 unit)

Even matchup here.  Give me the price.  

 

GL all

 

an_cheers

90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

Ouch.

paint_help

90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

 

Saturday:

Peru +.5 (90 minutes) +130 (1 unit)
Peru to advance +265 (1 unit)

Just have a feeling that Peru can hang here and they are being punished by the oddsmakers because of their getting pounded by Brazil.  Peru can be dangerous, and will need to put together a big effort - but is capable.  This is a value / line play.  

GL ALL

 

an_cheers

90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

Record (W/L):  8.5 - 4

17.16 units up 
7.11 units down

 

QUARTERFINALS

Thursday:

Paraguay / Brazil over 2.5 and 3 -110 (1 unit) - dont see much to like in this game.  This is not the game to bet against Brazil.  Paraguay really brings nothing that should threaten Brazil, just a matter of how much Brazil should win by.  I think there is a good chance for goals.  Brazil 3-1

 

Friday:

Venezuela +.5 +155 (2 units) (90 minutes)
Venezuela to advance +325 (2 units)

This will likely be my biggest bet of the tournament.  I hope Venezuela plays Martinez over Rondon again - it opened them up and made them much more dangerous on attack.  But either way - Argentina is a mess.  They are very capable of putting together a one off type of game - but I will take my chances that their defense will once again be terrible.  Venezuela in particular should cause problems for the aging defense of Argentina - especially the speed of Martinez.  If Argentina plays a high line - look for Martinez to get in back of them at least a few times.  Venezuela 2-1

Colombia +125 (2 units) - Chile gets exposed here.  Colombia 2-0

 

90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

Thanks guys.  Great night last night.

Next game is on Thursday.

 

Updated record:

Record (W/L):  8.5 - 4

17.16 units up 
7.11 units down

 

an_cheers

90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

Quote Originally Posted by viet076:

van, Do you have anything in mind for the 2 games today? I was thinking Uru -.5 since they are having a better form than Chile and Uru could score a late goal....in my opinion and Japan +.5 because Ecuador is not in a momentum to win, and like what you said Japan is not as bad as what it seems. I have a feeling that these 2 games might be a very low score overall. My prediction for both games would be Chile/Uru 0-0, 1-1 or 0-1Ecu/Japan 1-1

Well, reading this after I posted my picks - seems that we agree pretty much across the board.

GL to us.

peace_5

90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

Record (W/L):  6.5 - 4

12.26 units up 
7.11 units down

 

Monday:

Uruguay +130 (3 units) - Uruguay 3-1

Ecuador / Japan under 3 -110 (1 unit) -    1-1

 

Sorry, no time for writeups today.  Wish I had time to write up Uruguay - great matchup and spot.

 

an_cheers

 

90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

Quote Originally Posted by PeterBlack:

To advance there is not much to find yet....I would expect it to open around  4.00-4.25 or so?      pk    4.55ML    6.77

Based on the lines you guys quoted I would guess +400 - +500

90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

Venezuela to advance?

peace_5

90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

I cannot wait for this Argentina / Venezuela match on Friday.

Haven't seen a line anywhere yet.

90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

That Qatar / Argentina match went pretty much exactly the way I thought it would.

new_angry_teeth

90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

Record (W/L):  6.5 - 4

12.26 units up 
7.11 units down

 

So disappointed with Ecuador.  Feel like I was on the right side of that one.  Onwards....

Sunday:

Argentina / Qatar:  No bet.  I would love to bet Qatar here, but because this is the last game if they are down a goal they will need to chase the game, and Arg could score a late one.  I see this being a close low scoring game - until the last ten minutes or so.  Argentina 1-0 or 2-0

Paraguay / Colombia - no bet.  I will wait to see lineups for Colombia.  Pretty much meaningless for them.

 

Better games to come....

 

90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:

GL man.We had email back and forth a while ago and then you ghosted our back and forth.But, def still interested in chatting if you are.GL GL.

Sorry, but I didnt ghost you.

I literally almost became a ghost.

Im sure you understand.  Please send me a new email if you want to pick up where we left off.

an_cheers

90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

Thanks guys.  peace_5

Record (W/L):  5.5 - 2

9.26 units up
2.73 units down

 

Friday:

Ecuador +.5 -110 (2.5 units) - cant comprehend this line.  Total overreaction to first games.  Ecuador 2-1

 

Saturday:

Venezuela -.5 and -1 -140 (to win 3 units) - I love this game.  I love this matchup.  I would love it even more if Venezuela would play Josef Martinez instead of Rondon, but Venezuela should have all of this game.  Bet it now. Venezuela 3-0

Peru +1.5 -125 (to win 1.5 units) - I should be betting more.  I have to be honest, the name Brazil scares me - this team does not.  Like Venezuela, this is a great matchup for Peru - and a great spot.  1-1

 

GL all

an_cheers

 

90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

I shouldve bet more on Japan.

new_angry_teeth

90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

Record (W/L):  4.5 - 2

7.16 units up - 2.73 units down

 

Tough push on Paraguay last night.  Really shouldve hit that long odds play.  

 

Tonight:

Japan +1.5 +105 (2 units) - think this is a bit of an overreaction to both teams first game performances.  Japan not as bad as they showed against Chile, and Uruguay not as good as they showed against Ecuador.  Before the tournament, this game was basically -.5 goal - give me that extra goal.   Uruguay 2-1

 

gl all

peace_5

90
vanzack replied to Copa America Thread
in Soccer

Quote Originally Posted by rf_dawg:

Quote Originally Posted by arrgy:

Brazil yesterday this is another disgrace.
It's logical to expect Brazil to win at home but I firmly believe that Venezuela will soon be the second best side in South America.   They dominated at the 2017 U20's and that generation is starting to roll through their full international team.  They have the GK (Farinez) and a bunch of young talent that is already playing together better than the bigger name sides (Chile/Argentina) who are going through a generational change.  Once they find a goal scorer to replace an aging Rondon they'll be in prime shape to qualify for the next World Cup.

 

Agree with this.  But they already have Rondons replacement - they just refuse to play him - Josef Martinez.

 

an_cheers

90

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