Recent Posts

Thread Author vanzack Post Entries
danboone25
danboone25
That is the dumbest thread title here in a long time.

Congrats.
scalabrine
scalabrine
Scal - I also like the Rams.  Mostly because I can point to the Patriots rushing defense as the key to the game.  I just don't see that Pats stopping the Rams rushing game on a consistent basis.

I haven't read through the whole thread to see how much of this has been discussed, but that is where I stand on it.

GL

stanlety78
stanlety78
He is a habitual diver.  I love his play, no doubt he is incredibly gifted, but he gets a lot of goals because he takes the PKs after ridiculous simulation.
bfastking
bfastking
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

The real line of +4 is about +165.

You have a great opportunity with your price, but lets not get crazy.

Should have said +150.  Typo.
bfastking
bfastking
The real line of +4 is about +165.

You have a great opportunity with your price, but lets not get crazy.
Htowngoat
Htowngoat
The covers community is on the edge of their seats.

Titusblink
Titusblink
1.  Why didn't Nagy call timeout on the running clock right after the 2 minute warning.  Then they have 55 seconds instead of 15 at the Eagles 20.

End of story.
scalabrine
scalabrine
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

What doesnt make sense? Im saying that if a play loses, it doesnt matter what line you got as they all have the same value which is zero. "Value" is overused a ton. 

OK, I understand more clearly now.

But the price does matter when you lose if you are betting a certain amount to win, which is what I assume a guy like Scal does.  If he wants to win 100, a line of -116 vs -125 matters - ONLY IF YOU LOSE.

So in this case, when I bet, it is more important that I line shop my losers than my winners.

When you have a losing bet, the "value" is in minimizing your losses.

Sorry if my post came off aggressive.

scalabrine
scalabrine
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

I think youre the dense one. Im saying theres no value on the Dallas ML at all, now or ever. The Seattle ML is rising as the love for Dallas grows....

So, you got the best losing line possible. Congrats.

Train, with all due respect - this is a totally nonsensical post - and I am dumber for reading it.

zebrakiller
zebrakiller
This was not controversial.

He clearly caught the TD.

BarneysDad
BarneysDad
NFL Betting / Colts/ Titans / View Post
I love a good family reunion around the holidays.

Namtrid
Namtrid

Almost cancelled, but the temperature never dropped below 70.

At 69, it was a cancel for sure.

Namtrid
Namtrid
Low 70s, 30% chance of isolated rain, and no wind.

That is not a forecast for "horrendous weather"

Namtrid
Namtrid
Do you realize this game is in Orlando?

Weather is fine.

Get a clue pal.
vanzack
vanzack

I also like the part about third down conversion rates.

I have been saying it to years to people who usually roll their eyes back at me....  A good third down conversion rate makes you the best of the losers.

The winners are the ones who have the least amount of third downs relative to points.  That is the important stat here.

an_cheers

vanzack
vanzack
Quote Originally Posted by DoctorSuccess:

Just read the first article. It was fascinating. I'm making notes on how to apply the info to handicapping.

vanzack
vanzack
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/4thdownbot/index.html

vanzack
vanzack

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/12/19/18148153/nfl-analytics-revolution

 

an_cheers

RainDrop77
RainDrop77
Quote Originally Posted by HotRod11:

Branch manager at a tree trimming company. I think it was Vanzack who inspired me to look into it a few years back.

scalabrine
scalabrine
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

If I can provide an apropos analogy for what Covers is:

Posters like me and several others here are designing the Challenger. Sometimes it blows up. But that engineering team is responsible for the genesis (the inspiration and the foundation) to one day colonize Mars and beyond.

The trolls here, the same time, are flying paper airplanes around the room and think they are the Wright Brothers. In their spare time, they also compose music, with armpit noises.

I’m serious when I say this: Covers has brought the level of anti-intellectualism in this country to its nadir.

It is a disgrace to the capping community.

Even the mods, and the way they “moderate” is the height of hilarity (suspending me for a coffee commercial post. That was SuperBees that did that).

This might be the greatest post in covers history.

Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View