NASCAR betting provides a big bang at the Brickyard over the July 4 weekend, with the Cup Series rolling out another fanless event. Indianapolis Motor Speedway plays host to Sunday’s Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400, as bettors take another shot at NASCAR odds.
William Hill US’s Nick Bogdanovich provided insights on early Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 betting. Covers will update this action report with sharp bets and public play through the 4 p.m. ET Sunday green flag.
Who are people betting to win today’s NASCAR race?
UPDATE 3:45 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Shortly before the green flag drops, CG Technology sportsbooks risk analyst Dave Sharapan said Joey Logano (6/1) is landing the most tickets, followed by 3/1 favorite Kevin Harvick and 4/1 second choice Denny Hamlin. "Logano is the only guy the book has to dodge," Sharapan said.
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Kevin Harvick has tightened to a +260 favorite at William Hill US. "Huge money on Harvick in the futures book. Also a ton on Denny Hamlin," director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said, alluding to the +350 second choice. Joey Logano (11/1) is drawing the most tickets, followed by Chase Elliott (15/1). Bogdanovich said Harvick or long-shot Matt Kenseth (125/1) winning would be bad for the book, while Kyle Busch (5/1) or Martin Truex Jr. (12/1) would be best.
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Three hours before the green flag drops, PointsBet USA's Patrick Eichner said the top of the Cup Series odds board is drawing interest. "Action so far has been strong on the two favorites, Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick. We've seen both sharp and square money on them. Hamlin we had at +550, now +500, and Harvick is our worst result for the race, at +450." Erik Jones 28/1 is also getting "quite a bit of interest."
UPDATE 8 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Kevin Harvick is the 4/1 first choice and drawing the most tickets and money at BetMGM Nevada, according to Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage. "The first 10 guys all have a lot of tickets and a decent amount of money on them," Shelton said. The most liability is on 100/1 shot Bubba Wallace and 65/1 Matt DiBenedetto. "Best-case scenarios are William Byron, Alex Bowman or Ryan Blaney," Shelton said of drivers at 25/1, 35/1 and 12/1, respectively. "We don't win much on Harvick or Joey Logano (8/1). Anybody else but Wallace or DiBenedetto, we're gonna do pretty good." Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin are the 5/1 co-second choices.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The big news on the betting front Friday was Jimmie Johnson coming off the Cup Series odds board, after withdrawing from Sunday's race due to a positive COVID-19 test. Kevin Harvick is the +350 favorite at Caesars Entertainment sportsbooks, followed by Kyle Busch at 4/1, Denny Hamlin 5/1 and Martin Truex Jr. 8/1. "There is a smattering of small play on every driver priced 50/1 or less, which is what Johnson was when he dropped out," Caesars senior sports trader Rex Beyers said. Johnson's withdrawal is not a refund at Caesars books, as betting NASCAR odds to win stands as written. As for the remaining drivers: "No big sweat on anything other than a couple of bets on Daniel Suarez and J.J. Yeley at 3,000/1, which would be no good." And also rather unlikely, as the odds indicate.
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Bogdanovich said the favorite is drawing early dollars on Cup Series odds, based on action through Friday morning.
“The most money so far is on Kevin Harvick, and the most tickets are on Joey Logano,” Bogdanovich said of the +350 first choice and the 10/1 co-fifth choice, respectively. “Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin would both be good for us.”
Hamlin is the 4/1 second choice and Truex is also 10/1.
Which long shots are people betting to win today’s NASCAR race?
Though not necessarily true long shots in the 40-car lineup, Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer are seeing tickets and money at William Hill US. Johnson is 35/1 and Bowyer 40/1.
“Bettors figure they’re due,” Bogdanovich said, noting Johnson and Bowyer have seen action every week since the Cup Series resumed in mid-May. However, later Friday, Johnson dropped out of Sunday's race after testing positive for COVID-19.
Which NASCAR props are being bet for today’s race?
UPDATE 3 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Bogdanovich pointed to two key matchups at William Hill US: "We need Truex over Kyle Busch and Christopher Bell over Tyler Reddick." Busch is up to a -180 favorite against Truex, while Bell and Reddick are a -110 pick 'em.
UPDATE 1 P.M. ET SUNDAY: At PointsBet USA, Eichner said by far the most money among prop offerings is for the matchup of Chase Elliott against Martin Truex Jr. "We went up -115 on both sides, and Elliott has been backed all the way to -176."
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Bogdanovich pointed to a couple of matchups seeing money and movement: Kyle Busch stretched from -140 to -170 against Truex, and Ryan Blaney ticked from -125 to -135 against Chase Elliott.
Who will win today’s Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400?
| Driver | Odds to win |
|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | +400 |
| Kyle Busch | +500 |
| Denny Hamlin | +500 |
| Brad Keselowski | +800 |
| Joey Logano | +800 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1,000 |
| Chase Elliott | +1,200 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1,200 |
| Erik Jones | +2,500 |
| William Byron | +2,500 |
| Clint Bowyer | +2,800 |
| Kurt Busch | +3,000 |
| Aric Almirola | +3,300 |
| Alex Bowman | +3,500 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | +6,500 |
| Matt Kenseth | +8,000 |
| Christopher Bell | +8,000 |
| Ryan Newman | +8,000 |
| Tyler Reddick | +8,000 |
Odds courtesy BetMGM
*Jimmie Johnson withdrew from the race after testing positive for COVID-19.
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