The MLB season was on the brink of cancellation, but we will have games played in the 2020 season, with the revised Opening Day July 23. The delay to the season means that MLB betting fans will have a condensed 60-game schedule to dive into, with each team playing 40 divisional games and 20 interleague games against their geographical equal.
The NL Central was projected to be one of the tightest division races in baseball, with the top four teams having win totals between 82.5 and 88.5. Now, with the teams only facing each other, plus a relatively-soft AL Central, those same four teams are all within a single win, ranging from 32.5 wins to 31.5 wins.
But who has the best value? We turn our attention to the MLB odds for regular-season win totals and our Andrew Caley slides into the MLB betting odds headfirst, giving his best Over/Under win predictions for the National League Central.
NL CENTRAL REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTALS
| Team | New 2020 Win Total | Original 2020 Win Total | Odds to Win NL Central |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis Cardinals | 32.5 | 88.5 | +240 |
| Chicago Cubs | 32 | 86.5 | +230 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 32 | 85.5 | +260 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 31.5 | 82.5 | +320 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 26 | 69.5 | +5,000 |
CHICAGO CUBS – O/U 32
Between 2015 and 2018 the Cubs won no fewer than 92 games, so their 2019 campaign, which saw them notch just 84 W’s, was certainly a disappointment and end cost Joe Maddon his job. Now, former player David Ross steps into the manager role, a move I think will either be just what this talented team needs... or be a spectacular failure. That said, the core that won all those games over the years, led by Javy Baez, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, is still there and if Yu Darvish can bounce back this is one of the better rotations in the National League. The Cubbies also get a boost from the NL implementing the DH for this season, as slugger Kyle Schwarber can get consistent at-bats, without Ross having to worry about him being a defensive liability. If the Cubs can just be a little more consistent, there’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to not only go over this number with ease, but pull away from the pack as the top contender to win the NL Central.
Pick: Over 32
CINCINNATI REDS – O/U 32
The Reds are another sexy pick to make the leap to contention, and for good reason. With Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Trevor Bauer the top of the Reds rotation is as good as they come. Cincy also went out and signed Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos to create a dangerous lineup that already featured sluggers Eugenio Suarez and Aristides Aquino. Cincinnati was seventh in the majors in saves last season, leaning on a bullpen anchored by Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen. They added a few more arms in the offseason, and in a shortened 60-game season, having a strong, deep bullpen will be paramount for success. If anyone deserves a winning season, it’s the Reds, and we’re thinking the fans in Cincy will have something to cheer for this season.
Pick: Over 32
MILWAUKEE BREWERS – O/U 31.5
The Brewers have locked up former MVP Christian Yelich long term, but do they have the support around him to remain contenders? Outside of Yelich, the Brew Crew’s lineup had a subpar 2019 and lost Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas and Eric Thames. Those three players accounted for 88 home runs and 225 RBIs last year, and Milwaukee replaced them with Avisail Garcia, a very solid outfielder, but the rest of their additions included Just Smoak, Eric Sogard and Brock Holt, players better suited for part-time roles. The rotation is full of question marks and the bullpen was nowhere near as dominant as it was in 2018. Milwaukee was also incredibly lucky last year, as they made the postseason despite a run differential of just +3 — that’s just not sustainable. With multiple divisional foes, who is essentially the only teams they'll play in 2020, upgrading this offseason, this year has letdown written all over it for the Brewers.
Pick: Under 82.5
PITTSBURGH PIRATES – O/U 26
This is one of my favorite regular-season win total plays heading into 2020, and I’m going to get straight to the point. The ownership of this team looks like it has zero interest in winning right now: they continue to make baffling trade after baffling trade, refusing to build around their core pieces, which right now is Josh Bell and Bryan Reynolds. Only three teams gave up more runs than the Buccos last season and they’ve made no improvements to the staff. The bullpen is bad, the starting pitching is worse. Playing against a division that should be one of the most competitive in baseball, going over this number seems incredibly unlikely.
Pick: Under 26
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS – O/U 32.5
The Cardinals are coming off a 91-win 2019 campaign, which saw them win the Central division title for the first time since 2015. They were successful behind the strength of their pitching, as both their starters and bullpen ranked fifth in ERA. The Cardinals' issues, however, lie in the offense. While they boast a veteran lineup, they were far too inconsistent: Paul Goldschmidt’s first year in St. Louis wasn’t what we’ve come to expect from him, Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter saw their offensive production fall off a cliff and Yadier Molina isn’t getting any younger. Here are the teams in the National League with lower batting average than the Cardinals last season: Cincinnati, Miami, San Diego and San Franciso. That’s it. We've said that pitching and bullpens will play an even bigger role in a 60-game season and if the Cards' staff regresses even a little, I don't see their hitting making up for it.
Pick: Under 32.5
UNDERSTANDING MLB SEASON WIN TOTALS
Sportsbooks will post projected win totals for every MLB team before the season starts. The numbers are projections for the amount of wins a specific team will get in a given year set accurately enough in hopes of getting an even amount of dollars wagered on both the Over and the Under. These markets open before Spring Training, close when the regular season begins and don’t cash out until the season is over eight months later. So, be prepared to ride out your investment.
MLB season win total odds will usually look like this:
- St. Louis Cardinals Over/Under 32.5
This means you can bet the Cardinals to have more than or less than 32.5 wins. So, 33 or more wins and you cash an Over bet and 32 or fewer wins and your Under is the winner.
Most of these odds are juiced to -110 each way, meaning you would need to bet $110 to win $100. If adjustments are made, due to players changing teams, getting hurt or liability (amount wagered on a certain side), then usually the number would change, for example: the Cardinals move from 32.5 to 33.5.
HOW TO BET MLB REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTALS
There are many strategies to consider when making an MLB regular-season win total bet. First and foremost, you're looking for value. Has a sportsbook overvalued a player acquisition or undervalued the strength of a division? Just because the Cardinals won 91 games last year (the equivalent of almost 34 wins in a 60-game season), doesn’t necessarily mean they'll go Over their win total of 32.5 this year. With a little bit of research, you can find some real value in the numbers.
Also, consider the length of your investment. As mentioned before, MLB regular season win totals need to be locked in prior to the Opening Day of the MLB season and don’t cash out until the season ends. That’s a long time to wait out a bet. If you are betting the Brewers to go Over 31.5 wins, but they stumble out the gates, you’ve got a season-long sweat on your hands.
Finally, shop around. Different sportsbooks will offer slightly different totals. If you like the Pirates to improve but don’t love the number at 26, maybe another book doesn’t have as big of a liability on Pittsburgh and has a number of 25.5 or even 25.
Find more great betting strategies in our How to Bet section and join the conversation with thousands of serious basketball bettors in our MLB Betting Forum.
WHERE CAN I BET ON NL CENTRAL WIN TOTAL ODDS?
Most online books and casinos offer futures bets on MLB regular-season win totals, even with this condensed season. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live.
