NFL Week 13 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more

Nov 30, 2019 |
NFL Week 13 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Julian Edelman isn't among New England's flu-bitten players, but he's questionable to play at Houston due to a shoulder issue. The SuperBook estimates Edelman is worth a half-point to the line.
Photo By - USA Today Images
Julian Edelman isn't among New England's flu-bitten players, but he's questionable to play at Houston due to a shoulder issue. The SuperBook estimates Edelman is worth a half-point to the line.
Photo By - USA Today Images

NFL Week 13 apparently finds a boatload of Patriots dealing with the flu as the team prepares to face the Texans. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: During Thanksgiving week, someone apparently gave thanks by spreading the flu around the Patriots’ locker room, with several players taken ill. Osterman said that didn’t impact the line at his shop, but wideout Julian Edelman (shoulder) – listed as questionable Friday – would make a difference. “Edelman would be a big loss for the Patriots. He’s worth a half-point,” Osterman said. On Friday night, New England was at -3 (-120), with a total of 45.5, for the Sunday night game at Houston.

BALTIMORE RAVENS: Center Matt Skura’s season ended with a knee injury last week in a road rout of the Los Angeles Rams. That made undrafted rookie Patrick Mekari the new starter, in what may or may not become an issue. “Skura being out doesn’t necessarily affect this week, but we will be evaluating the offensive line without him to see if there may be some drop-off going forward.” The Ravens are 5.5-point home favorites against the 49ers.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Wideout Dante Pettis (knee) is out at Baltimore, while kicker Robbie Gould (quadriceps) returns after missing three weeks. However, The SuperBook didn’t adjust off either update, with the Niners a 5.5-point underdog.

ARIZONA CARDINALS: Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray (hamstring) is questionable at home against the Rams. “We didn’t move off the Murray news. We’ve had some sharp action on the Cardinals. I would expect him to go.” On Friday night, Arizona was +2.5, with a total of 47.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: T.Y. Hilton, who missed three games before returning last week at Houston, has a calf injury and will sit out at home against the Titans. “Hilton is worth a half-point to a full point. We took some sharp action Thursday night on Tennessee, right before the news broke. The line has since gone down even more.” The Colts were at -2.5 Thursday morning and dropped to pick by Friday morning, before going back to -1. Running back Marlon Mack (hand) is also out, but Osterman said that half-point was built into the original line of Colts -3.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: A combination of injuries and an undrafted rookie starting at quarterback this week created plenty of movement in the Browns-Steelers line. Pittsburgh won’t have wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion/knee), and running James Conner (shoulder) is doubtful. Mason Rudolph was pulled at QB, making way for Devlin Hodges. “All of those things contribute to the big line move in this game,” Osterman said of a line flipping from Steelers -1.5 to Browns -2. “That’s mostly due to the quarterback. Connor and Smith-Schuster would account for a half-point combined.”

CINCINNATI BENGALS: It’s not an injury, but Andy Dalton returns to the starting role at home against the Jets, after Bengals coach Zac Taylor ended the Ryan Finley experiment. “Dalton is worth 1 point to the spread. We went from +4 to +3 on that when he was announced the starter.”

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Tight end Zach Ertz (hamstring) and running back Jordan Howard (shoulder) are both questionable at Miami, but that didn’t influence The SuperBook’s oddsmaking team. “No move on Howard and Ertz.” In fact, Philly – which opened -7.5 – moved from -9.5 to -10 Friday.




Weather Watch

SAN FRANCISCO AT BALTIMORE: Rain is all but guaranteed Sunday, but Osterman said that hasn’t made an impact yet. In fact: “We’ve even been getting some play on the Over.” The total opened 46.5, dipped to 45.5 Tuesday, then returned to 46.5 before ticking to 46 Friday afternoon.

NEW YORK JETS AT CINCINNATI: Rain and wind in the mid-teens is expected in the afternoon/evening in Cincinnati. “I think we would have seen some movement on the total, but when Andy Dalton got announced as the Bengals’ starter, things got balanced out.” The total was at a high point of 41.5 Friday, after opening 41 and going as low as 39.

GREEN BAY AT NEW YORK GIANTS: Sunday brings with it a 100 percent chance of snow-to-rain precipitation. “We have seen the total come down, from 46.5 to 44.5.”

CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: Rain is fully expected at Heinz Field. “The total has come down, some due to the weather and some due to Devlin Hodges being named the starter” at quarterback for the Steelers. The total opened 40.5 and has been at 38.5 since Wednesday.

OAKLAND AT KANSAS CITY: It’ll be cloudy, cold and windy at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. “The total has come down a lot, from 54.5 to 51.”

Pros vs. Joes

SAN FRANCISCO AT BALTIMORE: “The only one that really stands out” as Pros vs. Joes, Osterman said. “The public seems to be fully on the Ravens bandwagon, but the line has slowly moved toward the 49ers. Almost all of the market was at Ravens -6 early in the week, and now there are even some -5s starting to show up. We have been at Ravens -5.5 since Wednesday morning, and we’ve seen a steady flow of Ravens parlay money all week.”

Reverse Line Moves

CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: “We’re seeing money on the Steelers, even though the Browns are favored now. I guess there are some people willing to back the Steelers, even with Devlin Hodges at quarterback.” It’s a rematch of the Week 11 Thursday night game that ended with a brawl. Pittsburgh is a 2-point underdog, after opening as 1.5-point chalk.

SAN FRANCISCO AT BALTIMORE: As Osterman alluded to in Pros vs. Joes, the Ravens are drawing the bulk of the cash, but the line is starting to trend toward the underdog 49ers. Baltimore peaked at -6.5 early in the week and has sat at -5.5 since Wednesday.

Top Consensus Picks

Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.



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